原始性创新人格形成的影响因素实证研究

在阅读大量国内外文献的基础上，对原始性创新人格影响因素进行了总结和补充，通过建立和训练BP神经网络确定了影响因素综合权值，结合DEMATEL算法，对1901-2012年诺贝尔物理学奖获得者原始性创新人格形成影响因素进行了重要性分析。按照中心度计算结果，对原始性创新人格形成影响因素进行了排序，根据原因度结果，判定哪些属于原因类影响因素，探寻诺贝尔物理学奖获得者原始性创新人格形成规律。最后，提出了有益于塑造原始性创新人格的对策。     

Memorability of Nobel Prize laureates in economics

In this article, a measure for the Relative Memorability of Nobel Prize winners is proposed, based on an exponential forgetting curve. The intention is to provide a measure that captures the fading nature of memories with respect to individual Nobel Prize winners in the cultural collective memory. For fame and achievement of Nobel Prize laureates, measurement methods are already developed. However, from a cultural viewpoint, the question is how well these persons are remembered. Applying the concept of memorability, as defined in this article, to Nobel laureates in Economics, Milton Friedman, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz turn out to be the top-three economists in the collective memory. Moreover, the ranking of economists according the collective memory, their fame and their achievement produce quite different results.     

Crossing the Great Divide: Ostrom’s Coproduction and the Economics of Aged Care

As the first woman to win the Nobel Prize in economics, Elinor Ostrom has attracted the interest of many feminist economists. Best known for her work on common pool resources, Ostrom made numerous theoretical and methodological contributions to economics, many of which are useful for feminist economists. This paper explores Ostrom’s work on coproduction: the active participation of individuals who receive a good or service in the production process. A particular focus is on how Ostrom’s model of coproduction might be applied and extended to capture the characteristics and circumstances of aged care. Data from interviews with women employed in Australia’s aged-care sector are used to inform a discussion of coproduction in aged care and the institutional supports necessary for successful outcomes. Key issues include the skills and resourcing of aged-care workers, and their authority to negotiate care practice with care recipients under current governance arrangements.     

Real-Time Fiscal Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Data*

The sovereign debt crisis has increased the importance of monitoring budgetary execution. We employ real-time data using a mixed data sampling (MiDaS) methodology to demonstrate how budgetary slippages can be detected early on. We show that in spite of using real-time data, the year-end forecast errors diminish significantly when incorporating intra-annual information. Our results show the benefits of forecasting aggregates via subcomponents, in this case total government revenue and expenditure. Our methodology could significantly improve fiscal surveillance and could therefore be an important part of the European Commission's model toolkit.     

Nobelity and novelty: Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott’s contributions viewed from Vienna

The awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2004 to Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott represents an opportunity to evaluate their contributions in light of Austrian economics. We lay out the basics of their contributions—the general equilibrium approach to economic fluctuations and the game theoretic approach to policy—and argue that they have tenets similar to those of Austrianism. We argue that their methodology parallels Austrian methodology in several significant ways that have gone unnoticed. We conclude that Kydland and Prescott’s Nobel Prize suggests Austrian approaches can have a more prominent impact than they have had in the past.     

An Agenda for Reforming Economic Theory

In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the standard macro-economic paradigm has failed not only to predict the crisis but also to provide insights into the design of a regulatory framework that would make a recurrence less likely. He points out that many of the underlying assumptions of the standard paradigm always seemed implausible and many of its predictions, such as those concerning the micro-economic behavior of the constituents (firms and households), are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. He then identifies a number of key modeling challenges, what he views as key ingredients that have to be incorporated in any model that is going to describe economic fluctuations or be the basis of a well-designed regulatory or monetary framework.     

The Economic Contributions of Robert A. Mundell

This is the second in a series of articles surveying the contributions of recent recipients of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. The 1999 recipient of the prize, Robert A. Mundell, has made important contributions in several fields, including the theory of the monetary and fiscal policy mix, the monetary approach to the balance of payments, the theory of optimal currency areas and supply-side economics. This paper provides an overview and critical evaluation of these contributions.     

The Case,If Any,for Economic Literacy

This article is reprinted as a tribute to Nobel Memorial Prize winner Stigler with the expectation that it will provoke current discussion about the goals and accomplishments of the economic education movement. The article first appeared in the Spring 1970 issue of the Journal of Economic Education.     

基于行为经济学Prospect理论的个体决策行为的进一步研究

诺贝尔经济学奖得主行为经济学家Kahneman．D和Tversky．A的Prospect Theory在全面反驳新古典预期效用理论的基础上，提出了基于个体主观感受和有限理性的一般决策模型，为不确定条件下个体的经济决策行为提供了一个全新的表述。在Prospect Theory的经典模型的基础上加入时间压力限制等因素，可发现个体在理性时间限制下风险偏好在不同的时间压力下会呈现非理性，尤其在短期行为中更是如此，可见古典经济学的偏好和理性假设将不再是决定所有个体决策行为的最终因素，时间压力的个体素质也是影响个体决策行为的最终目标实现的重要因素。     

Climate Change,Innovation, and Economic Growth: The Contributions of William Nordhaus and Paul Romer

ABSTRACT

William Nordhaus and Paul Romer shared the 2018 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for their work on long-run macroeconomic analysis. Nordhaus adapted the neoclassical growth model to study climate change, while Romer developed a model of innovation-based growth. The authors provide two distinct explanations of what drives growth, and employ contrasting methodologies for interpreting the results of their mathematical models. Macroeconomic policy in general, and climate policy in particular, would benefit from better integrating the theory and methods of these two laureates.     

Gordon Tullock: A Nobel Prize left unbestowed

Gordon Tullock (1922–2014) contributed substantially to public choice theory and bioeconomics. This paper discusses some of these contributions. His scientific contributions have left a Nobel Prize unbestowed.     

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者的区域经济学思想分析

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者的区域经济学思想,涉及区域差异与贸易、区域经济发展、区域竞争与合作等,这些思想之间具有一定的关联。诺奖得主的学术观点反映出经济学研究越来越关注区域(空间)问题,区域经济研究越来越转向宏微观兼顾,研究方法更加精细化。诺贝尔经济学获奖者的区域经济学思想对区际贸易及我国区域经济差异等具有较强的解释力。受诺贝尔经济学获奖者区域经济学思想的启发,中国的相关研究应更加关注空间因素,注重对具有中国特色的事物及现象的研究,使区域经济研究向规范和精细化方向发展,同时关注制度创新研究,建立中国特色的区域经济学。     

Lloyd Shapley's Matching and Game Theory

This is a survey of Lloyd Shapley's contributions to matching theory and game theory in general, starting with the work that inspired the Swedish Academy to award the 2012 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences to Lloyd Shapley and Alvin Roth.     

The Nobel Prize Economics Lectures as a Teaching Tool

Because Nobel Prize economics lectures are written for various purposes and cover a range of topics at different levels of difficulty, the author uses them to add rigor and relevancy to an economics course.     

Robert A. Mundell: A Profile

This essay is a short introduction to the work of Robert A. Mundell, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1999. It is a contribution to a special issue of Review of International Economics .     

Robust thresholding for Diffusion Index forecast

In this paper we propose a new methodology in improving the Diffusion Index forecasting model (Stock and Watson, 2002a, 2002b) using hard thresholding with robust KVB statistic for regression hypothesis tests (Kiefer et al., 2000). The new method yields promising results in the context of long forecasting horizons and existence of serial correlation. Numerical comparison indicates that the proposed methodology can improve upon the existing hard thresholding methods and outperform the soft thresholding methods (Bai and Ng, 2008) when applied to a real data set that forecasts eight macroeconomic variables in the United States.     

美日诺贝尔科学奖多获得性成因分析及对中国科研管理的启示

自2015年屠呦呦获得诺贝尔生理医学奖以来,国内引发了众多学者对于诺贝尔科学奖的极大关注。纵观诺贝尔科学奖100多年的颁发历程,美国无疑是获奖最多的国家,而日本则是亚洲获奖最多的国家。为此,分析了美国、日本诺贝尔科学奖多获得性的主要成因,并提出针对中国科研管理的一些引领性建议和可能性举措。     

A Nobel Prize for Empirical Macroeconomics: Assessing the Contributions of Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims

This paper provides an assessment of the contributions of the 2011 Nobel Prize winners, Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims. They received the prize ‘for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy’. The paper illustrates that Sargent entertained different interpretations of rational expectations during distinct phases of his research. And it shows that Sims shifted the focus from theoretical identification restrictions to identifying the main characteristics of the time series data, a shift of focus from theory to time series.     

Tirole's Industrial Regulation and Organization Legacy in Economics

Jean Tirole was awarded the 2014 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for his analysis of market power and regulation. This paper provides an overview of some of that work, and of his related contributions to game theory.