中日经济政策协调性对经济周期协动性的影响

随着中日两国的经济联系越来越密切,两国之间的经济周期协动性也日益增强.分析表明,财政政策和货币政策协调性对中日两国的经济周期协动性产生了重要的并且是正向的影响,之所以存在这种正向影响主要是由于中日两国都采取了反周期的财政政策和货币政策,另外经济政策本身的执行能力也是一个不容忽视的因素.因此中国在调控宏观经济的过程中,应该关注日本的财政政策和货币政策的取向.     

货币政策的时序变动对经济周期的影响研究

随着经济全球化的加速,经济周期的特征和货币政策之间的关系成为经济研究的热点.经济周期以其周期性波动、多阶段性、预见性困难和全球互动性为主要特征.与此同时,货币政策通过各种工具如利率调控、存款准备金率设定、央行票据操作和金融市场干预,对经济周期各个阶段产生影响.在经济扩张期,货币政策可缓和过热现象;在经济衰退期,可刺激经济活动;在经济复苏期,可稳定复苏态势;而在经济过热期,货币政策需收紧以避免通货膨胀.     

我国财政货币政策反经济周期作用实证研究

文章回顾了改革开放以来我国5轮经济周期和8次主要反经济周期的财政货币政策。通过构造实际经济增长率、广义货币增长率和财政赤字增长率三变量VAR模型对财政货币政策的反经济周期作用进行实证分析,发现货币政策的作用时效和强度均优于财政政策,同时二者存在双向联动倾向。另外,文章也分析了政策出现不同效果的原因,认为我国反经济周期应构建以货币政策为主、财政政策为辅的调控体系。     

宏观经济政策对通货膨胀预期影响的时变性研究

宏观经济政策会对通货膨胀预期造成一定的影响,两者之间存在着一种动态关系,这种影响具有较强的时变性特征,文章通过对我国过去一段时间里经济发展状态的分析发现,数量型货币政策工具在调控通货膨胀方面的影响会随着时间推移而逐渐减弱,财政政策工具对其的调控效果曾经在2012~2015年间迅速减弱,但在那之后就逐渐恢复;货币政策工具当中的价格型政策工具和财政政策工具中的转移支付更加适用于对通货膨胀的调控。     

财政支出类型、财政政策作用机理与最优财政货币政策规则

本文构建了一个新凯恩斯动态随机均衡模型,以中国经济为样本,在更加现实的经济条件下探究具有较强可操作性的最优财政货币政策规则;同时深入考察了财政支出的生产效应和效用效应,澄清其在刻画财政政策作用机理方面的作用及其对最优财政货币政策规则特性的影响。研究表明,旨在实现价格稳定的货币政策(即积极货币政策)为最优,反周期货币政策将导致较大的福利损失;旨在实现债务稳定的财政政策(即消极财政政策)为最优,反周期财政政策虽非最优但造成的福利成本很小;财政支出的效用效应特别是生产效应的引入有助于解释"财政支出拉动效应之谜",更好地刻画财政政策作用机理,但带来额外的通货膨胀偏差以及最优通货膨胀率、最优利率和最优所得税率的较大波动,导致最优财政政策对债务波动的反应力度明显减弱。     

人民币汇率与通货膨胀之间的溢出效应及动态相关性

文章综合运用VAR模型、GARCH-BEEK模型和DCC-GARCH模型,对中国人民币汇率与通货膨胀以及不同类型通货膨胀之间的均值溢出效应、波动溢出效应以及动态相关性进行了实证检验与分析。结果表明,在均值溢出方面,仅存在人民币汇率对PPI通胀的单向溢出效应;在波动溢出方面,汇率与PPI通胀之间存在双向的ARCH型溢出效应,同时汇率对CPI通胀和PPI通胀、CPI通胀对PPI通胀存在单向的GARCH型溢出效应;在动态相关性方面,人民币汇率、CPI通胀与PPI通胀之间的相关性具有时变特征,但多数时期是正相关关系。为此,政策当局要进一步稳扎稳打地推进人民币汇率改革,采取各种措施避免人民币汇率的过度波动以维护汇率稳定,实现抑制通货膨胀、保持物价稳定的政策目标。     

关于近期宏观调控目标的一点意见

作者认为：现在改变从紧、偏紧的宏观政策还不是时候，不赞成“保增长第一、保物价第二”的观点：近期内我国宏观调控的目标：在经济增长上，应由目前过快的实际增长率逐步调整到潜在增长率水平以内；在物价上涨上。把现在明显的通胀率回归到稳定物价的正常波动区间。目前从紧的货币政策执行中，数量型工具运用比较多。而价格型工具运用得相对较弱，利率手段在从紧的货币政策中要受到适当重视；目前通货膨胀形势要求我们的财政政策要稳中偏紧，为防止衰退或减轻衰退的损失，在适当时机网开稳健政策中保的一面、宽的一面．发挥它的扩张性的后续效果，顺应经济周期的变化，因势利导，化凶为吉。     

地方政府赤字财政下的物价控制与货币政策选择

货币经济学的一个基本观点就是,紧缩的货币政策能够降低通货膨胀,而扩张性的货币政策能够导致通货膨胀。费德斯坦指出,没有充分考虑财政政策的影响,这是货币经济学的严重缺陷。因此,文章结合我国当前的财政政策,探讨了在地方政府赤字财政下,中央银行如何控制和治理通货膨胀。文章认为,在地方政府赤字财政下,如果政府通过银行融资具有优先权的话,紧缩的货币政策不仅不能够控制通货膨胀,反而加速了通货膨胀。     

"二次紧缩":中国经济面临的主要风险

本文从经济周期的视角,对当前中国宏观经济所面临的风险进行了系统的评估.本文认为,当前中国经济所面临的最大风险是"二次紧缩".短期"双松"的财政政策和货币政策,虽然可以实现"保8"的目标,但其代价可能是引发资产泡沫,延长经济结构调整的过程.一旦资产泡沫破裂,经济将会进入"二次紧缩".本文还认为,当前中国经济出现通货膨胀的可能性很小.     

中国房地产、股票价格变动对经济增长的差异性影响

本文利用VAR和BEKK模型,对中国资产价格波动与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析研究。研究发现:在增速方面,经济增速与房地产价格增速之间仅有单向关系,与股票收益率之间则存在双向预测关系;在波动性方面,资产价格与经济增长之间存在显著的双向影响关系,尤其是房地产价格的波动,会降低经济增速。因此,为保持当前中国经济运行处于合理区间,对于房地产等重要资产价格的大幅波动,应该采取适当的调控措施。     

FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia—Panel data versus time-series causality analyses

Using time-series and panel data from 1986 to 2004, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand, the eight rapidly developing East and Southeast Asian economies. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the eight economies. We found each country has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the eight economies as a group and then use the fixed effects and random effects approaches to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through exports, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Our results indicate that the panel data causality analysis has superior results over the time-series causality analysis. Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions.     

Export performance and economic growth causality: An empirical analysis

The cointegration and causal relationship between export growth and economic growth is investigated for the Nordic economies. On the basis of Johansen's technique and the augmented Granger causality tests, the evidence shows that these macroeconomic aggregates are causally related in the long run for each economy. Granger causality is unidirectional, running from economic growth to export growth in Denmark, and bidirectional in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The established bidirectional causality suggests that the expansion of exports is an integral part of the economic growth process.     

Why is Inflation in China a Monetary Phenomenon？

This paper proposes that inflation in China during the post‐reform era (1978 onwards) is always a monetary phenomenon. We construct a multivariate dynamic model based on Friedman's quantity theory of money and use the standard Granger causality test to show that money growth contains significant predictive power for inflation during the underlying period. The finding is robust to alternative measures of monetary aggregates and both closed and open economy frameworks. The baseline finding of the paper indicates that quantitative tools remain the most important policy instruments for China to manage its inflation effectively.     

The relationship between globalization and insurance activities: A panel data analysis

This study applies a Bootstrap Panel Granger causality test to investigate whether there is causal relationship between globalization and insurance activity. We examine data from sigma reports of Swiss Reinsurance Company for 8 Eastern Asian countries over the period of 1979–2008. Empirically, results for one-way Granger causality show the influence of total insurance activity, life insurance activity, and non-life insurance activity on globalization only in Korea. However, there is strong causality from globalization to insurance activity for Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In our research, the results show that the causality between globalization and insurance activity varies across countries with different conditions. The findings of this study could provide important policy implications for the 8 Eastern Asian countries under study, namely India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand.     

我国服务贸易与经济增长关系研究

服务贸易在对外贸易中的作用越来越重要。对1982—2011年相关数据进行协整检验和Granger因果检验,发现服务贸易进出口与我国GDP之间的关系不对称：服务贸易进出口是我国GDP增长的Granger原因,而GDP增长只是服务贸易进口的Granger原因,世界GDP总量是服务贸易出口的Granger原因,这说明我国服务贸易出口增长更多得益于全球经济增长。     

教育投入、经济增长与新型城镇化建设研究

文章基于1978—2012年我国财政教育经费支出、经济增长和城镇化发展的年度数据,采用单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验的方法,对三者之间的关系进行了实证分析。结论显示:教育投入、经济增长与新型城镇化建设三者之间存在长期均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验表明,教育投入与经济增长为单向因果关系,经济增长与新型城镇化互为双向因果关系,教育投入与新型城镇化为双向因果关系。因此,增加教育投入对于经济增长与新型城镇化建设具有正向积极作用。     

The export-led growth hypothesis: The role of the exchange rate, money, and government expenditure from Korea

This article examines the export-led growth hypothesis for Korea in five-variable vector autoregressive and vector error correction models from 1973:1 to 1994:4. Results of the vector autoregressive models indicate economic growth Granger-causing export growth, regardless of the sample period. However, results of the vector error correction models show bidirectional causality between export growth and economic growth when the multivariate generalization of the Granger causality tests are used. In the variance decompositions, the real exchange rate contains most information regarding future fluctuations in economic growth and export growth followed by money supply and government expenditure in the subsample and the full sample, with economic growth as a dependent variable. However, when the dependent variable is export growth, then the order of the magnitude in the full sample becomes the exchange rate, followed by economic growth, government spending, and money supply. The findings in this paper suggest that the omitted variables have masked or overstated the effect of exports on income or income on exports in prior studies.     

投资与通货膨胀、经济增长关系的实证研究——基于二元VAR模型的分析

采用1981-2012年的年度数据,对通货膨胀与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明,二者之间不仅存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并且存在着双向的格兰杰因果关系。同时,通过引入投资增长率这一中间变量分析了通货膨胀与经济增长之间的传导机制,并根据实证分析,得到结论:经济增长会促进投资的增长,继而使得通货膨胀水平上升;而通货膨胀水平的提高会抑制投资增长,继而影响经济的增长。     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

A Contribution to the Empirics of Finance-growth Nexus in China: A Complex System Perspective

Abstract

The paper empirically examines the causal interactions between Chinese financial development and economic growth using the perspective of complex systems as a metaphor in an attempt to provide a better understanding of the co-evolution of China's real and financial sectors. Using Hsiao's version of the Granger causality tests, the empirical results support a complex set of bidirectional causality between the financial development proxies and economic growth variables. Despite numerous alleged financial intermediation's inefficiencies, bidirectional causality would suggest a coherent and effective finance-growth ecosystem.