Towards improved monetary policy in Indonesia

Indonesia's depreciation vastly exceeded that of all other countries hit by the Asian crisis. Indonesia also experienced far higher inflation. This paper argues that there is a close medium to long-term relationship between money growth and inflation in Indonesia, and that this has not been greatly disturbed by the crisis. It argues that the country's disappointing performance in relation to maintaining the value of the rupiah can be explained by the central bank's failure to sterilise the monetary impact on base money of its last-resort lending to the banks. The fundamental lesson is that Bank Indonesia would be well advised to adopt slow and steady growth of base money as the nominal anchor for monetary policy, now that the pre-crisis policy of slow and steady depreciation of the rupiah has been abandoned.     

Survey of recent developments

The economy continues along the general trajectory described in recent Surveys. Growth is picking up, led by consumption but restrained by investment. Inflation has fallen well below Bank Indonesia's current target rate. Most interest rates have followed suit, including key lending rates. Bank lending has been expanding at around 20% p.a. for the past year or so, and international portfolio investors are again interested in Indonesia. But a scare in the mutual funds industry and scandals at two state banks remind that trouble still simmers just below the surface in the financial sector.

Fiscal policy continues its conservative stance. The government is likely to have achieved its 2003 deficit target, and the budget for 2004 envisages further narrowing of the deficit. Still, the deadline for achieving a modest budgetary surplus has slipped two years, to 2006. Draft amendments to the income tax law foreshadow a probable reduction in corporate tax rates, increases in personal rates, and removal of certain key exemptions. Proposed administrative changes would give tax officials significantly greater powers of investigation and prosecution; observers foresee increased scope for extortion by unscrupulous officials. Monetary policy has become increasingly expansionary, given the central bank's desire to support economic recovery and its success in driving inflation down. This is reflected in quite rapid base money growth and sharp falls in policy interest rates, notwithstanding some efforts by Bank Indonesia to slow their decline. Trade policy has been dominated by increasing signs of resurgent protectionism, including a shift away from a transparent tariff regime to rent-generating systems of licensing.

On the political front, opinion polls in advance of the national elections suggest a considerable shift in the parliament, away from PDI-P in favour of Golkar. The size of this shift will be critical in determining the choice of candidates for the subsequent presidential elections. At present, Megawati Sukarnoputri remains the front-runner, but almost any combination of major parties could still form a coalition and make a credible run at the presidency.

With elections looming, little further progress can be expected on the economic policy front in 2004. In these circumstances, the focus for progress shifts to a politically independent Bank Indonesia. With strong policies in its areas of responsi-bility—inflation, monetary policy and financial sector development—further progress is achievable even during an election year. This would lay a solid foundation for robust economic recovery, hopefully policy driven by the next administration.     

Efficiency and Risk in Commercial Banks – Hybrid DEA Estimation

Abstract

The hybrid DEA model can solve the difference between radial inputs and non-radial inputs and evaluate efficiency. This is a pioneering study that uses the hybrid DEA model, evaluating the proportionate inputs with a radial measure and the non-proportionate inputs with a non-radial measure, in order to examine the impact of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the efficiency of Taiwan's banking sector from 2006 to 2010. In summary, this research demonstrates the following: (1) Only nine banks remained in the top efficiency list during these years: China Development Industrial Bank, Mega International Commercial Bank, Chinatrust Commercial Bank, Cathay United Bank, Bank of Kaohsiung, Industrial Bank of Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, Land Bank, and Bank of Taiwan. (2) Risk is an important factor that should be taken into consideration when evaluating banking efficiency. (3) From the hybrid DEA model, we find that most of the inefficient banks have an inefficiency factor caused primarily by too many NPLs (risk). (4) The efficiency of Taiwan's large-scale banks is significantly better than the small-scale bank. By looking at the inefficiency index, the large-scale bank's inefficiency is caused by NPLs. For the small-scale bank, both radial variables and non-radial variables have equal importance in improving its efficiency.     

Postscript to the Survey of Recent Developments: On Causes and Cures for the Rupiah Crisis

The dramatic fall of the rupiah has been driven largely by panic, rather than by careful analysis of Indonesia's economic fundamentals The catalyst for the panic appears to have been a sudden reassessment of the exchange rate risk faced by unhedged domestic firms and foreign investors This reassessment was triggered by the abrupt decision of the That government to float the baht. The policy focus now must be on helping the private sector adjust to the floating rate environment, and aiming to maintain economic growth. Belt-tightening measures are counterproductive in these circumstances. The process of adjustment might be assisted by a clearly articulated decision by the government for Bank Indonesia (BI) to divest itself rapidly of a large portion of its foreign exchange assets, given that its need for them is greatly diminished in a genuinely floating regime.     

Risks,Resilience, and Reforms: Indonesia’s Financial System in 2019

Indonesia has managed the complex challenges of the global economy well. The country's capital outflows were smaller in 2018 than during the Taper Tantrum in 2013; the rupiah had regained most of its lost ground by January 2019; the Indonesian stock market has outperformed its peers; growth is forecast to remain stable; inflation is low; unemployment remains below its five-year average; consumer and business confidence are robust; and the government budget has improved through a smaller deficit and cheaper borrowing costs. But significant risks remain. This paper assesses these risks and evaluates the adequacy of Indonesia's crisis management framework. It finds that the framework has serious deficiencies that could see liquidity challenges become systemic solvency crises. The framework effectively removes Bank Indonesia as the lender of last resort, risks politicising the process of crisis response, and could mean slower, less effective responses to crises. This paper explores how the framework could be improved and what reforms could be undertaken to deepen Indonesia's financial system, strengthen financial resilience, and boost the long-term growth outlook.     

What Drives Cost Efficiency of Banks in China?

This study uses stochastic frontier analysis to examine the factors that influenced cost efficiency of banks in China from 2005 to 2013. The results indicate that policy variables, such as the reserve requirement ratio, the interest rate spread and open market operations by the People's Bank of China, are effective in improving the cost efficiency of banks, but shadow banking variables may reduce cost efficiency. Among the various bank types, city commercial banks appear to be the most efficient and foreign banks are the least efficient. The present study suggests that policy‐makers can have a positive influence on bank cost efficiency by adjusting macro policy variables on different types of banks and by requiring more information on the shadow banking activities to improve monitoring.     

Chinese Stylized Sterilization： The Cost-sharing Mechanism and Financial Repression

This paper attempts to explain why sterilized intervention was so successful and sustainable in China during the first decade of the 21st century.We argue that the Chinese Government established a sterilization cost-sharing mechanism among the People’s Bank of China, commercial banks and the household sector.On the one hand,Chinese commercial banks have to assume some of the sterilization costs by purchasing low yield central bank bills and maintaining high levels of required reserves.On the other hand,Chinese households assume some of the sterilization costs by bearing negative real deposit interest rates.The costsharing mechanism under financial repression prevents a huge quasi-fiscal loss by the People’s Bank of China as well as high inflation.However,Chinese households have become victims of this financial repression.Faced with the pressure of changing the growth model from investment-driven to domestic consumption-driven,the interest rate will have to be liberalized eventually,which will,in turn,make sterilized intervention unsustainable.     

Survey of recent developments

Little has happened to dispel concern that reform momentum is dissipating. New National Economic and Innovation Committees to help accelerate development will probably achieve little: resolving many key economic policy issues is straightforward technically, so the real obstacle to doing so is lack of political will and leadership.

It appears that economic growth has stabilised rather than continuing to accelerate. Investment is still strong, but fiscal policy is no longer providing a stimulus. Soeharto-era attachment to small budget deficits remains evident in the 2011 budget, which persists in spending heavily on subsidies at the expense of investment in sorely needed infrastructure. The demand for net exports had temporarily constrained growth, but by Q2 2010 this was no longer the case. Manufacturing has been in the doldrums, partly because of surging export commodity prices and volumes, but its recent growth seems more promising. International reserves continue to accumulate because of the commitment of Bank Indonesia (BI) to avoiding rupiah appreciation, which makes monetary policy difficult and costly to implement. BI has responded by allowing some appreciation, an acceleration of inflation and a small increase in the interest rate on its certificates of deposit, and by forcing banks to place more funds with it at low or zero interest. At last it has begun to tighten monetary policy, but this is likely to increase capital inflow, despite the introduction of a new capital control. The incompatibility of BI's monetary and exchange rate policies will therefore continue to cause problems. Rapid rice price inflation, however, is not the fault of the central bank, but a consequence of the policy of preventing Indonesia from participating more fully in the world rice market.

Official indicators suggest that the banking sector is in good condition. One concern is that interest margins are too high, which seems to be attributable to inefficiency in government-owned banks. If pressure to prevent or roll back increased foreign ownership of Indonesian banks is successful, this is likely to make the banking system even less efficient. Indonesia continues to have difficulty competing for foreign investment with comparator countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil: much remains to be done to improve the climate for doing business. The government appears to be pondering more serious approaches to tackling the problem of Jakarta's congestion, although conflicting signals on this have emerged. Solutions are seen in expansion of transport infrastructure and improvement of its management, and in the introduction of electronic tolling on main roads.     

Bank risk and non-interest income activities in the Indonesian banking industry

The recent trend of product diversification in the Indonesian banking industry underscores the importance of non-interest income activities. This study examines the relationship between product diversification and bank risk over the period of 2002–2008. Our analysis shows clear evidence that the effect of product diversification on bank risk depends highly on the bank's asset size. Specifically, the degree of product diversification is negatively associated with bank risk for small-sized banks. Conversely, the degree of product diversification is positively related to bank risk for large-sized banks. This finding suggests that deregulation encouraging banks to become more involved in non-traditional activities may have an adverse effect on the overall banking system where large-sized banks are playing a significant role in Indonesia.     

China Development Forum 2002 Minister's Speech: Developing China's Capital Market and Speeding Up Banking Reform

In this ministerial speech to the China Development Forum in Beijing, March 2002, I emphasise the importance of the People's Bank of China in implementing sound monetary policy and strengthening financial support for economic development. For these purposes China's capital market needs to be further developed to increase the share of direct financing, and state-owned commercial banks need to be reformed to establish appropriate incentives for loan marketing as well as internal control.     

International Trade in Nutmeg and Mace: Issues and Options for Indonesia

Indonesia produces more than three-quarters of the world's output of nutmeg and mace. In 1986 the government introduced export regulations that facilitated cartehsation of the market. This led to a dramatic rise in world prices. Problems such as accumulation of unsold stocks in Indonesia and smuggling of nutmeg and mace through Singapore led the government to abolish the regulations in 1990. World prices fell steeply, and since then have remained low. Indonesian nutmeg and mace exporters have called for the reregulation of the market. This paper assesses the case for reregulation, considering the costs and benefits to affected parties within Indonesia and the long-term sustainability of regulation.     

TOWARDS IMPLEMENTATION OF INFLATION TARGETING IN INDONESIA

The experience of high inflation accompanying the economic crisis in 1998 has brought back painful memories of hyperinflation in the 1960s. Success with inflation targeting (IT) in other countries has prompted Indonesia to consider this framework as the basis for monetary policy,a response that seems justified on at least two grounds. First, monetary policy needs a new anchor after the abandonment in 1997 of the previous regime of managed floating. Second, the central bank law enacted in 1999 prescribes stability of the value of the rupiah as Bank Indonesia's sole objective. This paper explores the future framework of monetary policy under a formal IT approach and highlights the constraints Bank Indonesia faces in implementing such an approach. It discusses the monetary policy framework before and during the crisis, and in the post-crisis period. It then goes on to outline a preliminary design for a suitable IT framework for Indonesia.     

SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

The second half of 2008 is proving to be a time of unprecedented global volatility, and the sound performance of the Indonesian economy over the first half will be difficult to maintain. With growth for the year projected to remain around 6%, Indonesia is relatively well placed to face the challenges of the unfolding global financial crisis, but the risks to the outlook are increasing. The crisis has begun to impact directly, with trading on the Indonesian stock market suspended on 8 October after an alarming one-day fall of 10% in share prices. Sustained pressure on the currency since mid-August has also seen Bank Indonesia running down its sizable foreign exchange reserves in attempting to support the rupiah. The authorities are taking steps to relieve liquidity pressures in the financial system, but will also need to address medium-term issues of stability, especially in relation to inflation; interest rate increases have so far done little to contain prices. Although exports have remained surprisingly strong, rapid import growth has resulted in a small current account deficit. Growth of exports is likely to decelerate as demand in developed economies slows, putting further pressure on the balance of payments and the currency.

The 2009 budget reflects the government's positive outlook, but the underlying assumptions about growth, inflation and interest rates seem rather optimistic. Tax revenue has been increasing strongly, allowing the government to allocate significant new spending to education, in particular; however the budget remains hostage to global oil prices, with energy subsidies still very large despite the unpopular recent increases in domestic fuel prices. Other issues likely to affect voting in the 2009 elections include scheduled electricity blackouts in Jakarta in response to demand continuing to outstrip supply; the government's apparent indifference to the fate of the victims of the Sidoarjo mud disaster; and its failure to make much impact on the level of poverty.

Despite asking major donors for additional loans for budget support, the government has unveiled a new strategy for managing development partnerships. This will encourage smaller donors to operate through multi-donor arrangements and larger donors to use government systems for more of their programs—a signal that the government intends to shape its relationships with donors despite the global crisis.     

Representations of Development in 19th and 20th Century indonesia: A Transport History Perspective

Contemporary debate in Indonesia over ‘people's economy’ and ‘globalisation’ recalls the vigorous 1950s debate over ‘dualism’. Taking as a case study the rise and eclipse of railways, this paper argues that the colonial phenomenon of dualism can with hindsight be reinterpreted as a phase in a previous cycle of globalisation. However, economic history has overlooked the remarkable vitality of the small-scale transport sector. Focus on the small-scale sector highlights the inadequacies of familiar paradigms and suggests the need to reconceptualise long-term socioeconomic change. This analysis has important implications for responses to the current wave of globalisation and how they may be manifest in a more democratic post-Soeharto Indonesia.     

Indonesia's Great Leap Forward? Technology Development and Policy Issues

Technological development and technology policy are vital to Indonesian development in the 1990s and beyond. They are the subject of much public commentary and debate, there are major analytical and policy questions to be resolved, and the Indonesian government already allocates considerable resources to these activities. The purpose of this paper is to survey and assess Indonesia's industrial technological capability, and to highlight key policy issues, in the context of the large analytical and empirical literature on this subject for developing countries. Indonesia is a latecomer by East Asian industrial standards, and this is reflected in various technology indicators The paper suggests directions for effective technology policy.     

OWNERSHIP AND NONPERFORMING LOANS: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN'S BANKS

We first derive a theoretical model to predict that the relation between nonperforming loan ratios and government shareholdings can be downward‐sloping, upward‐sloping, U‐shaped, and inversely U‐shaped. An increase in the government's shareholding facilitates political lobbying. On the other hand, private shareholding induces more nonperforming loans (NPLs) to be manipulated by corrupt private owners. We adopt a panel data set of forty Taiwanese commercial banks during 1996–99 for empirical analysis. The results show that the rate of NPLs decreased as the ratio of government shareholding in a bank rose (up to 63.51 percent), while the rate thereafter increased. Bank size was negatively related to the rate of NPLs. Rates of NPLs are shown to have steadily increased from 1996 to 1999. Banks established after deregulation, on average, had a lower rate of NPLs than those established before deregulation.     

The cost of government deposits for black-owned commercial banks

This article utilizes a Statistical Cost Accounting Model and Mean Variance Model to estimate the cost and potential risk impact of government deposits for black-owned commercial banks. The main findings are that relative to other types of deposits on the balance sheet, government deposits are expensive, and that deposits received through the Minority Bank Deposit Program may have the effect of increasing risk in the asset portfolio.     

Inflation targeting in Indonesia, 1999–2012: an ex-post review

Around the end of 1999, Bank Indonesia (BI) adopted inflation targeting as part of its approach to monetary policy. This article reviews the experience up to 2012, examines BI's performance in hitting its inflation targets and considers certain broader indicators of success. Overall, inflation targeting in Indonesia has been a messy, evolutionary process, and BI's implementation record compares unfavourably with that of its peers. Yet Indonesia recorded a significant downward trend in inflation during this period and maintained strong economic growth. Also, almost all of its inflation-targeting arrangements are now in line with common international practice. Looking ahead, this article offers suggestions for sustaining progress in inflation targeting, such as setting more ambitious targets in the outer years and implementing strong policies to reduce inflation further, including after large administrative price shocks.     

Transparency Mechanisms at the Multilateral Development Banks

The multilateral development banks (MDBs) adopted information disclosure policies in the 1990s, and four created mechanisms providing recourse for citizens affected by their activities. This paper proposes a set of four characteristics by which information disclosure policies may be compared and assessed, emphasizing the fullness and timeliness of disclosure, accessibility of information to citizens, and existence of recourse. The transparency and disclosure policies of the World Bank and regional development banks are found to vary in important details. Their policies have advanced the status of transparency in development discourse and practice, and contributed to redefining the relationships among MDBs, states and citizens. At the same time they set limits that constrain information disclosure's significance in practice.     

Bank Indonesia and The Recent Crisis

This paper is a personal note describing the crisis as it unfolded while the writer was a key player in Indonesia's macroeconomic management. The crisis is seen as multi-faceted. It originated externally from a shock in the currency market that triggered a downward spiral from currency depreciation to fully-fledged crisis. The currency shock that hit the rupiah in July 1997 exposed in sequence the flaws embedded in the banking sector, the economic system, the social and the political system, flaws that had been obscured by long years of good economic performance. Through a complicated process of contagion and feedback effects—market disturbances, policy responses and market reactions—Indonesia deteriorated from a relatively well managed economy to the “worst case” among the Asian crisis economies. The paper discusses this process, the IMF's role, the bank closure issue, the currency board controversy and the author's dismissal as Governor of Bank Indonesia.