中资银行人民币NDF业务定价的实证研究

本文在参考传统远期交易定价模型的基础上,根据人民币NDF的特点,专门研究当前中资银行通过境内外联动方式开展人民币NDF业务的定价问题。由于境内客户参与人民币NDF业务受到监管和市场等限制,商业银行和客户这两个市场参与主体存在不对等地位,考虑报价—要价差额和借贷差的影响,因此对人民币NDF定价模型进行了探讨和实证分析,结果表明,人民币汇率制度改革后考虑交易成本的人民币NDF定价模型能较好地贴合我国的实际情况;在全球金融危机的不利影响下,仅仅在人民币NDF的定价模型中考虑交易成本是不够的,需要加入金融危机的影响因素。     

关于人民币远期定价权问题的研究

本文通过静态及动态的两类模型对人民币远期定价权问题进行了研究。结果表明，我国人民币远期市场尚未摆脱境外NDF市场的影响，NDF市场仍是影响人民币远期定价的主要因素。而2005年8月以来我国外汇市场推出的各项改革措施，使得基于利率平价的定价机制开始在人民币利率的决定中发生作用；我国人民币远期市场定价机制尚未实现从基于预期的定价机制向利率平价的转变，我国银行间人民币远期市场尚未掌握人民币远期定价的主导权，但基于利率平价的人民币远期定价机制在人民币远期定价中所起的作用越来越显著。在此基础上，本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

金融市场不完全的理论分解与测度研究——基于中国封闭式基金折价的动态考察

基于金融市场不完全的结构分解,文章构建了一个涵盖市场交易费用、套利定价机制不完备程度和行为金融学因素的封闭式基金折价机理模型,分阶段计量分析发现:(1)普通交易成本因素影响基金折价约6.1%;(2)2007年前股指期货缺位因素导致基金折价约25.6%,之后随着股指期货的正式推出该影响显著下降;(3)市场套利定价机制不完备程度测度表明,该因素影响基金平均折价三个阶段分别为8.26%、5.87%和7.91%;(4)时期固定效应表明,有5个季度因投资者情绪相对乐观而降低了基金的平均折价率。     

预约定价缔约机制的博弈分析

预约定价是一种特殊的税收契约，通过这种契约安排有助于对不完备的所得税法规进行补充。本文运用讨价还价模型分析了预约定价参与各方的竞争合作博弈均衡，揭示了预约定价的缔约机制，并就此提出优化转让定价税收监管的制度安排。     

利率互换的定价模型及其实证研究

本文研究利率互换的定价模型，以及利率互换的定价过程。从选取债券到拟合理论即期利率曲线、远期利率曲线，最后拟合出互换利率曲线，并对上述的定价模型和过程进行实证研究。对拟合结果与目前市场报价的相同点和差异进行分析，并对国内利率互换的套期保值策略进行实证研究。     

人民币在岸市场已经是一个 非完全定价中心*

本文的研究结果表明在岸市场依然具有人民币汇率定价中心的性质,主要体现在在岸即期和远期汇率都会对离岸远期汇率的变动有显著的均值溢出效应。而离岸即期市场对在岸即期市场存在较小幅度的均值溢出效应以及三大市场之间已经存在着一定波动和冲击溢出效应,则表明在岸市场已经不是一个完全定价中心。从溢出效应的程度和传递方向来看,稳定在岸人民币汇率定价预期仍然是降低汇率过度波动的关键。     

中小银行创造性开展远期结售汇业务的思考

2005年人民币汇率机制改革以来,人民币对美元汇率不断上升,外汇风险成为涉外企业急需应对的重要风险之一,涉外企业需要不断提升自身的外汇风险管理能力。2010年12月,国家外汇管理局发布《关于合作办理远期结售汇业务有关问题的通知》(以下简称《通知》),允许没有经营远期结售汇资     

远期外汇的定价研究

远期外汇市场是现代外汇市场的基本组成部分,在我国或迟或早都会建立起人民币远期外汇市场。建立该市场所涉及到的一个重要问题,就是远期外汇的定价。远期外汇的定价是否合理,对远期外汇市场的平稳运行至关重要。因此,有必要在建立人民币远期外汇市场之前,对远期外汇如何定价进行深入的研究,以便制定出易于操作、科学合理的人民币远期外汇的定价方式,为人民币远期外汇市场的建立打下坚实理论基础。 一、远期汇率及其表示方法 远期汇率是指在远期外汇交易时,买卖双方所确定的、在将来某一时间交割的外汇买卖价格,即远期外汇的价格。…     

B股市场资本资产定价模型（CAPM）的实证分析

近30年来资本资产定价模型（CAPM）的有效性经历了无数实证研究和检验,有些支持和肯定,另一些则提出了质疑和挑战,甚至认为β对股票的平均收益不具有解释能力,从而宣告这一理论已完全丧失了其有效性。利用B股市场开放后的这段数据,对资本资产定价模型（CAPM）的有效性进行了实证分析,截面检验结果表明,开发后的B股市场的平均收益率与β值关系的估计值没有明显的正相关,同时还证明公司规模与收益呈现明显的负相关。     

外汇掉期，合理规避汇率风险

2005年7月21日我国实行人民币汇率形成机制改革后．为了满足国内经济主体规避汇率风险的需要．央行公布实施《关于扩大外汇指定银行对客户远期结售汇业务和开办人民币与外币掉期业务有关问题的通知》（银发[2005]201号，简称201号文件）．决定扩大办理人民币对外币远期业务银行主体．并允许银行对客户办理不涉及利率互换的人民币与外币掉期业务。     

Intraweek and intraday trade anomalies: evidence from FOREX market

In this article, we search for the evidence of intraweek and intraday anomalies on the spot foreign exchange (FOREX) market. Having in mind the international scope of this market, empirical evidence against market efficiency (i.e. market anomalies) will have important consequences for the substantial number of FOREX investors all around the globe. We explore intraweek, intraday and interaction between days and hour trade anomalies on the FOREX market over the period of 10 years using hourly time-series data of Euro and US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate on Swiss FOREX market from 1 January 2004 to 11 January 2014. We compare by analysis of variance test all pairs of mean returns on a daily, hourly and daily/hourly basis. t-Test is used to test whether intraday returns are significantly different from zero. We employ Tukey’s honestly significant difference test to explore which intraday pairs of hourly mean returns are significantly greater than zero. We find that intraday and interaction between day and hour anomalies are present in trading EUR/USD on the spot FOREX market over the period of 10 years. The best arbitrage opportunity is evidenced on Fridays, when selling USD and buying EUR at 00:00 and selling EUR and buying USD at 03:00 the same day.     

我国外汇储备经营收益的实证研究

近年来我国外汇储备大幅增长,其经营收益自然也备受关注。本文利用公开的全国银行结售汇月度时间序列数据,运用计量经济学方法对2000年-2004年期间银行结售汇在外汇储备增长中的作用进行了实证研究,并间接地对外汇储备经营情况进行了估计,结果表明：第一,结售汇顺差不断扩大决定了近年来外汇储备不断增长的长期趋势,结售汇顺差额约占新增外汇储备的80％;第二,外汇储备经营收益约占新增外汇储备的20％,是我国外汇储备增长不可忽视的重要原因。由此也揭示了外汇储备的经营损益对外汇规模的影响已难以忽视,政府应增加外汇储备经营状况的透明度,以利于更好地形成合理的人民币汇率预期。     

Export-Flexible Firms and Forward Markets

This paper examines the production and hedging decisions of an exporting firm under exchange rate uncertainty. The firm is export flexible in that it can distribute its output to either the domestic market or a foreign market, after observing the realized spot exchange rate. The firm is a monopoly in the domestic market but a price-taker in the foreign market. It is shown that the separation theorem holds if selling exclusively in the domestic market is suboptimal even under the most unfavorable sport exchange rate. Otherwise, the firm's optimal output depends on its preference and on the underlying exchange rate uncertainty. Furthermore, the export-flexible firm underhedges its exchange rate risk exposure in a currency forward market wherein the forward exchange rate contains a non-positive risk premium. [D21, F31]     

Trust versus illusion: What is driving demonetization in the former Soviet Union?

The virtual economy argument for Russia suggests that barter allows the parties to pretend that the manufacturing sector is producing value added by enabling this sector to sell its output at a higher price than its market value. We confront this prediction with the actual pricing behaviour of industrial sectors in Ukraine in 1997. Based on the pricing data of 165 barter deals we find no systematic difference in the pricing behaviour in non-cash transactions across sectors. What appears to matter for the pricing behaviour is whether the firm is on the selling or buying end of the barter transaction. We offer a model that sees this pricing behaviour as a mechanism to deal with the absence of trust and liquidity in the economy.
JEL classification: D20, G30, O10, P30.     

基于季节ARIMA模型的国有粮食企业收购预测分析

研究国有粮食企业的购销现状,对国有粮食企业的购销量进行分析和预测,有利于深刻认识国有粮食企业的市场运行规律,更为充分地保障国家粮食安全。本文利用Box-Jenkins法中的季节ARIMA模型,对2005年1月—2009年4月中国国有粮食企业收购量数据序列进行分析,建立了国有粮食企业的季节ARIMA模型。检验结果表明,季节ARIMA模型对原始数据序列有着较好的拟合效果,模型的预测效果良好,可用于短期内国有粮食企业收购量的预测。     

Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market

This paper aims to extend the existing literature on foreign exchange rate risk pricing. Unlike the existing studies on Canada, we use six alternative bilateral and one multilateral exchange rate proxies. Furthermore, using both a two-factor and a three-factor capital asset pricing model (CAPM), we test for the presence of a long-run relationship among exchange rate risk pricing, herding behavior, term structure and the interest rate. The estimated results based on both the ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS) estimation techniques confirm that exchange rate risk in the Canadian equity market is priced and that the pricing of this risk is time-varying. This result holds for all seven exchange rate proxies. Our empirical analysis also suggests the presence of a long-run relationship among exchange rate risk pricing, herding behavior, term structure and the interest rate. This relationship is found to be insensitive to variations in the world market return.     

MONEY HOLDINGS,INFLATION, AND WELFARE IN A COMPETITIVE MARKET*

This article examines an environment where money is essential and agents exchange in perfectly competitive, Walrasian markets. Agents consume and produce a homogeneous good, but hold money to purchase consumption in the event of a relatively low productivity shock. A Walrasian market delivers a nondegenerate distribution of money holdings across agents and avoids some of the computational difficulties associated with the market assumption of bilateral bargaining common to search‐theoretic environments. The model is calibrated to long‐run U.S. velocity, and the welfare costs of inflation are assessed for variable buyer–seller ratios and persistent states of buying and selling.     

Exchange rate pass-through and product heterogeneity: Does quality matter on the import side?

This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the heterogeneous response of exporters to real exchange rate fluctuations due to the quality of imported inputs and exported output. We develop a model where the production of high-quality products requires high-quality inputs sold in monopolistically competitive foreign markets. The model predicts that exporters using imported inputs have low exchange rate pass-through, but this effect is weaker for firms shipping high-quality goods. This is due to the heterogeneous price adjustments of foreign suppliers selling inputs of different quality. We test the predictions of the model using Italian firm-level trade data for the period 2000–2006. The empirical analysis shows that the imports of intermediates have a significantly weaker effect in reducing the exchange rate pass-through into the export price of high-quality varieties. By showing that the import price of high-quality inputs is less sensitive to exchange rate variations, we provide evidence supporting the theoretical hypothesis that the pricing power of input suppliers weakens the import channel.     

Calibration of implied volatility for the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan from its derivatives

Revised implied volatility curves and surfaces for the Chinese Yuan (CNY) exchange rate are obtained from market quotations for CNY non-deliverable options by solving an inverse problem of foreign exchange option pricing, which is calculated using a regularization approach in an optimal control framework. To take account of the market expectation for the CNY exchange rate, a stochastic adjusted factor is applied that follows a Vasicek model with parameters fitted from market quotations for CNY non-deliverable forwards. A well-posed numerical scheme is implemented.     

基于随机贴现因子的人民币与新台币汇率定价

基于随机贴现因子定价理论,采用无套利定价法,推导出人民币与新台币的即期汇率与随机贴现因子、远期汇率之间的关系,并利用人民币和新台币的无本金交割远期外汇作为远期汇率,对人民币与新台币的即期汇率进行定价。实证研究结果显示,人民币与新台币的汇率主要受中国大陆地区和台湾地区的股票市场和债券市场波动的影响。用本文模型定价模拟的即期汇率与真实汇率的变动趋势较为一致,这表明本文模型可为人民币与新台币之间的双向直接兑换提供依据,进而有助于建立两岸货币清算机制。