Why Economists should Choose their Inheritance: Physics and Path-independence in Economic Systems

Abstract

This paper considers the possibility of using fiscal rather than monetary policy as the instrument of stabilization policy in a new consensus framework. Describing the conduct of fiscal policy in terms of a ‘pseudo Taylor rule’, it is shown that fiscal policy is as, if not more, effective than monetary policy as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization. The conclusion reached is that the comparative neglect of fiscal policy as an instrument of stabilization policy in new consensus macroeconomics is unwarranted.     

A survey of evolutionary policy: normative and positive dimensions

We explore public policy from the perspective of evolutionary analysis. Potential entry points for developing a normative evolutionary policy theory are examined, which involves a critical examination of the related idea of “evolutionary progress”. The meaning of evolutionary policy is next studied from two different, normative and positive angles: namely, policy design informed by evolutionary thinking; and policy-making and politics as an evolutionary process. Several examples are provided to discuss the value of evolutionary thinking for policy, including in the context of the current economic crisis. Next, evolutionary policy is compared with policy advice coming from two dominant schools of policy analysis, namely neoclassical economics and public choice theory. We conclude that evolutionary thinking offers a distinct and useful perspective on public policy change and design. Nevertheless, there is a need for more synthesis and coherence among different studies as well as for policy experiments and in-depth empirical studies.     

Understanding China’s monetary policy: an institutional perspective

Given China’s status as a large transitional economy, analysing the country’s monetary policy requires an understanding of the institutional and policy environment within which monetary policy operates. As China’s monetary policy has multiple objectives and the central bank is subordinate to the State Council in monetary policy decisions, addressing deep-rooted structural issues and improving governance and institutions are essential so that monetary policy can be more focused and effective. Confronted with the Impossible Trinity dilemma, China faces daunting challenges in tackling the inevitable policy choice between monetary autonomy and exchange rate control as its capital account increasingly liberalises. This article analyses China’s unique and evolving monetary policy framework from an institutional perspective and evaluates the challenges to monetary management and reforms. Relevant policy implications for monetary policy implementation are also discussed.     

中美创新战略规划政策工具比较研究

基于Rothwell和Zegveld的政策工具理论,以中国《“十三五”科技创新规划》和美国《2015年美国创新战略》的政策文本为研究对象,对中美创新战略规划的政策工具进行比较研究。结果表明:中美两国使用的环境型政策工具最为频繁,同时中国环境型政策工具的使用比率高于美国;两国使用供给型政策工具的比例相当,但中国供给型政策工具的内部机构不尽合理;两国使用最少的为需求型政策工具,中国需求型政策工具的使用比例尤其低。与美国相比,中国在个别政策工具运用方面存在过溢、错位、缺位等不良现象,就此借鉴美国政策工具的运用经验,提出了完善中国创新战略规划政策工具布局的建议。     

浅析日本农产品价格政策及其对中国的启示

中国加入WTO后,农业面临着一系列的机遇和挑战,农产品价格体系的建设问题尤为严峻。日本农产品的国内价格政策和对外贸易政策及其政策效果,可为中国优化农产品价格政策提供借鉴。     

人口和计划生育利益导向政策研究:回顾与前瞻

人口和计划生育利益导向政策的发展经历了从最初简单的节育手术等节制生育的服务措施,到明确将利益导向政策上升到国家制度层面,再到全面建设和发展利益导向政策体系的几个重要阶段。随着计划生育政策目标由降低生育率向稳定低生育水平、统筹解决人口问题、实现人口长期均衡发展的转变,利益导向方法、手段与措施的不断丰富与拓展,人口和计划生育利益导向政策也面临着人口和计划生育利益导向政策的科学评估、普惠政策与利益导向政策协调机制的建立与完善、人口长期均衡发展背景下计划生育利益导向政策走向的明确等-系列新的研究课题。     

Competing back for foreign direct investment

This paper studies policy competition for foreign direct investment between host and home countries. Three results have been obtained. First, policy competition does not change the attractiveness of any country as a location for investment. Second, as a result, policy competition does not change regional welfare. Lastly, the equilibrium policy could be either a subsidy or a tax.     

政策性金融创新探究--论政策性银行和社会保险可能的融合

本文的创新之处在于首次将社会保险纳入政策性金融的范畴,论证了社会保险的本质决定了它与政策性银行一样同属于政策性金融.进而认为社会保险可通过政策性银行业务进行某种形式的融合以发挥政策金融的整体优势,使国家信用在二者之间融会贯通,充分运用,减少国家信用外溢.在当前相互独立的政策性银行和社会保险之间构架联系的桥梁,使政策性资金在政策性金融机构进行体内循环,以解决当前政策性银行面临的资金来源的困境和社会保险基金管理及运用中存在的一些不容忽视的问题.较为详尽地论证了政策性金融进行融合的必要性和可行性,并在此基础上对政策性金融融合的方式进行了探讨.     

汇率-资本流动性的制度安排和财政-货币政策的有效性研究

笔者通过拓广的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型,并突破了传统的"三元冲突"汇率制度安排理论的研究路径,考虑引入资本流动性相对强度系数的概念,又在固定汇率制下引入"冲销"干预政策因素,提出了一个在固定和浮动汇率及不同资本流动性制度安排下财政-货币政策有效性指数曲线的新假说,对汇率-资本流动性制度安排对于宏观经济政策(财政-货币政策)综合有效性的影响问题做了一些较为深入的探讨.笔者认为,我国作为一个经济大国应尽可能地拥有宏观经济政策的自主权,考虑到我国当前金融市场体系尚不够完善,货币政策传导机制还存在严重障碍,所以在近期财政政策的权重应大于货币政策,从而在我国汇率制度改革过程中,为保留宏观经济政策的自主权,在加快放宽人民币汇率弹性的同时必须加强相应的资本管制.     

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY WITH THE STICKY INFORMATION MODEL OF PRICE ADJUSTMENT: INFLATION OR PRICE‐LEVEL TARGETING?

I investigate the optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework with the sticky information model of price adjustment. The model is solved for optimal policy, and welfare implications of three alternative monetary policy regimes under this optimal policy are compared when there is a cost‐push shock to the economy. These monetary policy regimes are the unconstrained policy, price‐level targeting and inflation targeting regimes. The results illustrate that optimal policy depends on the degree of price stickiness and the persistence of the shock. Inflation targeting emerges as the optimal policy if prices are flexible enough or the shock is persistent enough. However, the unconstrained policy or price‐level targeting might be preferable to inflation targeting if prices are not very flexible and the shock is not very persistent. The results also show that as prices become more flexible, the welfare loss usually gets bigger.     

国外农村中小企业政策支持和服务体系建设——研究进展视角

本文从国外农村中小企业支持政策的研究视角、支持政策的特点以及支持政策的相关实践等方面对国外农村中小企业政策支持和服务体系的建设情况进行了系统的总结和分析,指出了国外农村中小企业政策支持体系在系统性、可借鉴性以及保持农村中小企业长期竞争力等方面存在的问题,以期对我国农村中小企业政策支持和服务体系建设有所借鉴。     

DOMESTIC COMPETITION POLICY AND TARIFF POLICY COMPARED*

M. Yano and F. Dei have demonstrated that, by controlling the degree of competition in a non‐tradables market (competition policy), a country can influence the terms of trade so as to increase its welfare, relative to free trade. Using their model, this study compares the extent of this effect with that of a tariff policy. It demonstrates that a competition policy can achieve a higher utility than a tariff policy if tariff rates are at levels currently tolerated in the real world. This demonstrates that domestic competition policy may play an important role as a substitute for tariff policy.     

我国林地保护制度的政策构想

从林地保护制度的政策基础、政策体系构成、政策实施系统等三个方面探讨了当前我国加强和改善林地保护的必要性和紧缩性以及充分发挥林地保护的政策效应的途径。     

The Five-Year Outlook as a policy document: Historical and comparative perspectives

The article reflects on the role played by policy analysis in the development of national science policies. Its thesis is that science policy, for coherence as a policy function and its impact on policy making, depends on analysis of goals, strategies, issues, and programs; policy crystallizes, to the extent it does, through the medium of policy analysis. First, a number of United States science policy reports prepared between 1945 and 1980 are reviewed. Next, recent science policy reports from predominantly western countries are examined. Taken together, these historical and comparative perspectives make it possible to appreciate the policy potential of future Five-Year Outlook reports.     

NON‐UNIFORM STRATEGIC TRADE POLICY AND AGGREGATE PROFIT CREATION EFFECT

This paper illustrates a new theoretical case for a strategic R&D policy in a two‐country third‐market international oligopoly model. Asymmetric treatment of domestic firms through a non‐uniform R&D policy can create aggregate profits without a foreign retaliation concern and further improve national welfare in addition to what a uniform policy accomplishes. This effect occurs when the conventional Brander–Spencer incentive is entirely absent as well as when the uniformly optimal R&D policy initially prevailed. The superiority of non‐uniform policy to uniform‐policy is not guaranteed, however, when the number of firms becomes endogenous.     

Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Model of Imperfect Competition With Transactions Money

This paper examines the effectiveness of fiscal policy in a general equilibrium macromodel with transactions money and an oligopolistic product market. The results suggest that although money may be neutral and play no direct role as a policy instrument, its indirect impact on the effectiveness of fiscal policy can be quite substantial. In particular, when money balances feature as a choice variable in the households' objective function, (i) fiscal policy becomes ineffective as the weight attached to money is reduced; (ii) the fiscal multiplier becomes negative when the elasticity of substitution between money and leisure exceeds unity; and (iii) it is possible that policy effects are in fact enhanced as the product market becomes more competitive.     

政策不确定性的宏观经济后果

本文采取贝克的政策不确定性指数,运用FAVAR方法分析政策不确定性冲击对中国宏观经济的影响。经验结果发现,政策不确定性冲击对GDP、投资、消费、出口和价格变动会带来负向影响,导致实际有效汇率贬值,促使股票价格和房地产价格下跌。同时发现,政策不确定性作用于宏观经济的主要机制为预期渠道。该结论表明,政府应当尽量保持宏观经济政策的稳定性和持续性,并加强引导公众合理预期。     

Wage Rigidity, Monetary Integration and Fiscal Stabilization in Europe

Flexibility in fiscal policy is a necessary ingredient in a policy package for EMU. Even with strong endogenous shock absorbers, such as real wage flexibility, fiscal policy can speed up the stabilization process in response to demand shocks. If real wages are rigid, as they typically are in Europe, fiscal policy cannot remove the adverse effects of asymmetric supply shocks, but it can successfully limit the divergence between member states. Monetary flexibility, a possible option in the run-up to EMU, cannot completely make up for the stabilization function of fiscal policy.     

NATIONAL SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY: THE NEED FOR A PUBLIC CHOICE PERSPECTIVE

This paper argues that the issues raised by the industrial policy debate are as much political as they are economic. There is every reason to believe that, without substantial reform of political institutions, efforts to administer a rational new industrial policy would soon degenerate into the type of inconsistent morass of special-interest-generated policies which industrial policy advocates rightfully criticize as our de facto set of industrial policies.
This important political dimension has been overlooked by many industrial policy advocates. An important exception is Robert Reich, who has proposed a new centralized industrial policy agency in hopes that the battle of conflicting interests would promote greater aggregate efficiency. We argue that on theoretical grounds, however, such centralization might either increase or decrease efficiency. The competition of the military services under the Defense Department gives us a close analogue for study. Unfortunately, however, our review of efficiency in defense policy suggests that this would be a very poor model on which to base a broader industrial policy. To promote substantial increases in defense and industrial policy efficiency appears to require that much more fundamental institutional reforms be considered.     

National Income Accounting and Public Policy

Modern national income accounting was designed in the early 20th century for the purpose of providing improved indicators about the performance of the economy so that government policy makers could better control the economy. The way that performance is measured affects the types of policies used to try to accomplish policy goals. Two attributes of national income accounting are analyzed for their effects on economic policy. First, government production is included in the national income accounts at cost, rather than at market value as private sector output is measured. This biases policy toward a larger public sector. Second, output is measured as a homogeneous dollar amount. This biases policy toward focusing on increasing quantities of inputs and outputs in the production process, rather than on innovation and entrepreneurship, which are the true engines of economic progress. Economic policy could be improved by focusing less on national income as an indicator of policy, and more on the underlying processes that foster economic progress.