国际贸易乘数与国际金融乘数研究

本文首先在Krugman的国际金融乘数模型的基础上引入产品市场,建立了一个既包含国际贸易乘数效应又包含国际金融乘数效应的两国经济依存模型。在该模型中,各国的资产市场与产品市场通过财富效应和收入效应建立互动关系,两国的资产市场之间通过国际金融乘数效应建立互动关系,两国的产品市场之间通过国际贸易乘数效应建立互动关系。然后本文通过该模型分析了当本国资产市场上出现负向需求冲击时的后果。分析结果显示,本国资产市场上出现的负向需求冲击会直接导致本国资产价格下跌,而本国资产价格下跌一方面通过财富效应导致本国产出下降,另一方面通过国际金融乘数效应引发外国的资产价格下跌,本国产出下降又会通过国际贸易乘数效应导致外国产出下降。     

我国财政政策乘数效应的动态分析

本文利用状态空间方法建立了20世纪90年代以来舍有税收影响的消费的季度可变参数模型和IS-LM季度可变参数模型,分别估计并计算得到动态的边际消费倾向、简单的政府支出乘数和包含挤出效应的财政政策乘数.通过比较分析,本文得出结论:我国20世纪90年代以来的政府支出具有一定的挤出效应,挤出部分占收入应增加部分的3.1%～17.6%,总的来说并不显著,近三年来扩大国债发行规模没有使挤出效应增加.     

我国财政政策乘数的实证分析

本文基于IS—LM模型,推算出考虑各种财政政策在内的财政政策乘数总的基本公式,而不是分别对转移支付乘数、政府购买乘数和税收乘数分别进行估测。本文采用1991—201O年2O年间的年度数据,利用OLS方法,在分别估算政府支出乘数、货币需求系数、投机需求系数以及引致投资系数（又叫边际投资倾向）的基础上,对我国的财政政策乘数进行估算,计算出我国2O年间财政政策乘数的平均值。粤过财政政策乘数与政府支出乘数的对比,得出我国财政政策挤出效应的大小,为政策实施提供有效的评估依据。     

后危机时代政府支出乘数研究的新进展

2008年全球金融危机之后,世界各国的一系列财政刺激计划重新燃起了人们对政府支出理论的关注。本文从政府支出乘数效应角度综述了西方学术界针对政府支出与经济增长相互影响的最新研究成果。总的来看,后危机时代政府支出的相关文献更关注影响政府支出乘数的因素以及政府支出宏观效应的微观传导机制,同时也拓展了人们对不同经济周期下政府支出作用的认识,对我国实施具体的财政政策提供了理论支持,具有较强的现实意义。     

制造业就业与服务业就业的交互乘数及空间溢出效应

本文通过理论模型揭示了制造业就业与服务业就业之间存在交互乘数及空间溢出效应.利用中国2003-2013年285个地级及以上城市的数据,建立联立方程模型,基于不同空间权重矩阵,使用GS3SLS方法进行事实检验.研究发现:制造业就业与服务业就业之间存在双向促进作用机制,城市制造业就业每增加1％,会带来服务业就业0.45％～0.47％0的提升,其中,生产性服务业的受益最大;服务业就业每增加1％,会带来制造业就业1.15％～1.16％的提升.城市之间制造业就业和服务业就业均存在正向的空间溢出效应,而二者的空间交互溢出效应为负,表现为发达地区拥有高端制造业的同时,会吸引周边地区从事服务业的劳动力迁入.进一步的分析表明:随着时间的推移,服务业就业对制造业就业的乘数效应占主导,制造业的发展愈发依靠服务业的不断完善,二者的空间交互溢出效应逐渐减弱.政策上,促进劳动力的流动、深化市场化改革、充分发挥大城市的规模经济、完善城市结构体系、加强交通基础设施建设和公共服务有助于提升第二、三产业之间相互创造就业岗位的能力.     

中国财政政策乘数的时变特征及经济周期相依性研究

本文运用时变参数因子增强向量自回归(TVP-FAVAR)模型测算多种时变财政乘数，结合时点脉冲响应函数分析经济周期中财政政策稳定经济的多种理论机制。研究发现：(1)我国时变财政乘数同时具备短期的周期性变化和阶段性的结构趋势。在2012年之前，财政支出对产出和消费的乘数效应有着明显的逆国内经济周期趋势，财政支出对投资的乘数效应则呈现出强劲的上升态势，但在2012年后，财政支出对产出和投资的乘数效应受到经济结构失衡的影响均发生结构性的下滑，而财政支出对消费的乘数效应保持平稳水平；(2)财政支出对进口和出口的乘数效应都具有“先升后降”的顺世界经济周期趋势，前者稍高于后者，我国扩张性财政政策总体上产生正向外溢效应，但该效应在后危机时期不断减弱；(3)在亚洲金融风暴、全球金融危机和经济新常态这三个典型的经济波动阶段，财政政策均能通过汇率、金融、信贷、股市等渠道有效地稳定经济，且财政政策与货币政策具有协调性特点，这些都对财政乘数有促进作用，而政府债务累积渠道和进口外溢渠道的存在在一定程度上削弱了财政政策效果。     

当前经济增长中的消费乘数效应分析

本文通过建立小型宏观经济模型分析消费乘数的大小,并分析政府支出与投资支出对消费的影响作用,以此论证(1)扩大政府支出、加大投资力度在多大程度上启动最终消费(2)最终消费的扩大又在多大程度上推动国民经济的增长,最后对改善消费乘数提出了一些对策。     

乘数理论分析及其在中国经济发展中的应用研究

一国国民收入的增加值与其投资额的增量及进出口贸易差额具有一定的比例关系,这就是乘数关系。乘数的大小取决于边际消费倾向,增大乘数及增加投资额,扩大净出口量会使国民收入增加。     

政府消费、政府投资、净出口和有效汇率——基于中国的经验和解释

本文通过构建结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),对中国政府投资支出和政府消费支出的宏观经济政策效应进行实证分析,发现在开放经济条件下,政府投资支出增加导致总产出和净出口增加,实际有效汇率下降;而政府消费支出所产生的效应与政府投资支出效应相反。本文根据中国政府支出宏观经济效应的特征事实,建立了一个包涵粘性价格、习惯性消费等垄断竞争和存在正外部性的政府支出等不完全竞争因素的新开放宏观经济模型,并据此考察中国政府支出的宏观经济效应的政策传导机制。数值模拟结果发现本文建立的模型能较好地解释我国的总产出、净出口和实际有效汇率对政府投资和政府消费冲击的经验事实及政策传导机制。     

经济状态对我国财政政策乘数效应影响的实证分析

财政政策乘数效应并非固定不变,而是依赖于政策产生效力所处的经济状态。本文借助于非线性多元分析模型并结合我国总产出和财政支出的历史数据进行研究,结果表明我国财政政策乘数效应在经济向下状态较大,而在经济向上状态则有所下降。本文的研究结论对我国财政政策的制定具有一定的借鉴作用。     

税收和政府支出政策对产出动态冲击效应的计量分析

本文运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型方法，研究我国税收和政府支出政策对产出所产生的动态冲击效应。主要结论是：(1)税收的正冲击对产出仅有负的短期效应，即减税的财政政策在短期促进产出增长。政府支出正冲击对产出有正效应，而且其效果是中长期有效的。(2)增税的税收政策抑制私人消费，而扩大政府支出则会促进私人消费；(3)增税的税收政策抑制投资，但扩大政府支出则促进投资。     

Productivity growth and cyclical behaviour in service industries: the Spanish case

A longstanding basis of empirical economics is that average labour productivity declines during recessions and increases during booms, and thus behaves procyclically. In the short run, in many countries output growth and productivity tend to move together and across a wide range of industries. In recent years, this observation has gained increased prominence as each proposed explanation for the observed procyclicality has important implications for modelling the business cycle and measuring the technical change. By filtering out the influence of business cycles, it is possible to isolate changes in the long run, or structural rate, of productivity growth and so assess the importance of any source for economic growth. Nevertheless, the focus of these empirical works has been the aggregate economy or manufacturing industries, and not the services sector. The novelty of this paper is the focus on the patterns within the services sector. The aim of this paper is to better understand short-run changes in productivity growth within the service sector industries, which are necessarily different from those existing within the manufacturing sector. Another goal of this research is to assess whether this observed procyclicality remains if the service sector is the scope of analysis, and whether this is homogeneous among the different activities within this miscellaneous sector or not. Empirical evidence for the Spanish economy since 1980 is presented.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are analyzed using a Keynesian growth model. Comparative static analysis shows that the long‐run effects of an increase in public spending and a decrease in taxation on economic growth and government budget balance depend on the relative size of marginal propensity to consume and invest and could be positive under certain conditions. Empirical estimates show that consumption and production structure have changed significantly from 1930s to 2007; both positive and negative effects on growth and budget balance of the same fiscal policy are found in different time periods.     

Informality,tariffs and wealth

This article analyzes the interaction between changes in tariff protection, informality, inequality and aggregate income. First, we describe some new empirical evidence on informality, the formal/informal wage gap and trade openness in Latin American countries. Then we present a simple model characterized by three (empirically based) assumptions: (1) agents consume both formal and informal goods; (2) the government uses tariff revenues to purchase formal goods; (3) informality is a voluntary phenomenon. The model predicts that tariff reduction increases informality and wage inequality and that the maximization of income requires a positive level of tariff protection. The model's results are shown to be consistent with the empirical evidence concerning Latin American countries.     

Demand-side stabilization policies: What is the evidence of their potential?

Using disaggregated data for the United States, this paper explores the effects of the variability of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. Higher variability of government spending shocks around a steady-state growth trend results in, on average, a decline in aggregate demand growth and inflation, with limited effects on output growth. On the other hand, higher variability of monetary shocks results in, on average, an increase in inflation and a decline in output growth. These results indicate the desirability of avoiding large fluctuations over time in either government spending or the money supply.     

PUBLIC DEBT AS PRIVATE WEALTH: SOME EQUILIBRIUM CONSIDERATIONS

Government bonds are interest‐bearing assets. Increasing public debt increases wealth, income and consumption demand. The smaller government expenditure is, the larger consumption demand must be in equilibrium, and the larger must be public debt. Conversely, lower public debt implies higher government spending and taxation. Public debt plays, thus, an important role in establishing equilibrium. It distributes output between consumers and government. In case of insufficient demand, a larger public debt entails higher private consumption and less public spending. If upper bounds on public debt are introduced (as in the Maastricht treaty), such constraints place lower bounds on taxation and public spending and may rule out macroeconomic equilibrium. As an aside, a minor flaw in Domar's (American Economic Review, 34 (4), pp. 798–827) classical analysis is corrected.     

Tariff and Consumption Tax Reforms in a Developing Tourism Economy

This paper examines the effects of a coordinated tax reform by replacing import tariffs with point-by-point increases in consumption taxes for a small-open developing tourism economy. Foreign tourists demand for the non-traded goods provided in the informal sector of the host economy, resulting in a tourism-induced terms-of-trade effect. The presence of inbound tourism lends a support to positive tariffs even for a small open economy. The indirect tax reform of this kind can increase residents’ welfare and government revenue when the initial tariffs are relatively larger to the consumption taxes.     

政府支出对居民消费的影响研究--基于空间动态面板模型的分析

本文在居民消费效用最大化的理论背景下,结合统计年鉴相关数据,利用空间动态面板模型,研究了1997-2013年中国的政府支出对全体居民、城镇居民以及农村居民消费的影响。研究结果表明：居民消费存在显著的习惯效应,政府支出和居民收入增加会促进居民消费,各省份之间居民消费既可能存在相互促进的关系,也可能存在相互竞争的关系。因此为了促进居民消费,需要适当地保持较好的消费习惯,改变不良的消费习惯,注意省份之间的密切合作,现阶段可以增加政府支出,来刺激居民消费,特别是农村居民消费,另外还需要提高城镇居民可支配收入和农村居民纯收入。     

Threats and opportunities faced by private businesses in China

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the environment experienced by private businesses in China through examining their relationships with the major stakeholders—namely government, supplier, employee, customer, and competitor.Since the announcement of the economic reform in 1978, substantial political and economic power has been delegated from the central government to the regions. Endowed with this power, local governments have crucial influence on the size of the private sector within their jurisdiction. Being outside the state allocation plan, private firms have less access to raw materials and credit. In the volatile political climate of China, they are vulnerable to attack during political campaigns. Maintaining a cordial relationship with local cadres, through paying bribes and various charges, is thus a prerequisite for survival. Having solicited political backing, a private entrepreneur can not only run his business more smoothly, but also may be more tolerated in his illegal activities such as tax evasion, profiteering, and selling banned products. In short, the whole situation can be described as a collusion of local governments and private businesses at the expense of the central government's interest.Under the economic reform, the distribution system has become less rigid than before. It is easier for private firms to secure supplies, whether raw materials or manufactured goods. Labor input is also not a problem for most private firms which are small in size and employ mainly unskilled workers. However, large private enterprises have to compete with state, collective, and foreign enterprises for managerial staff who are in short supply.There have been marked changes in the consumption pattern since the early 1980s. People spend less on staple foods and more on non-staple foods, consumer goods, and services. Moreover, China is experiencing a consumption boom. Altogether this offers great opportunities to the private sector, which has been expanding its share of industrial output and retail sales very fast. On the other hand, competition is becoming much keener. State enterprises are improving their efficiency and giant multinational corporations are rushing in. As there are few entry barriers, private entrepreneurs are also competing fiercely among themselves.The ideological contradiction of having labor exploitation by private entrepreneurs in a socialist country has prevented the Chinese government from actively encouraging private business. The private sector has been assigned a supplementary role in the dominant public economy. This status has led to discrimination against private firms in obtaining factor inputs, accounting partly for their vulnerability to bureaucratic harassment by local cadres. This will continue to hamper private business development. It is concluded that ideological and political reforms, in addition to the economic reform, are required for providing a more conducive environment for private businesses. The Chinese experience of liberalizing the private sector offers useful insights to governments of other developing countries.     

Sources of sectoral fluctuations in business fixed investment

A model of macroeconomic complementarity is used to assess causes of comovement in investment spending across nine sectors of the U.S. economy. It is hypothesized that the irreversibility and uncertainty of investment spending imply a greater role for investment linkages and aggregate factors in investment fluctuations compared with estimates for employment and output. For the average sector, past investment growth across all sectors, changes in aggregate demand, and a common factor account for two-thirds of the variance of investment growth. After accounting for aggregate demand, sectoral shocks explain 70% of the average sector’s innovations to investment growth.