人民币汇率与物价的非线性关系研究——基于傅里叶函数和滚动因果检验

本文通过选取2005年7月至2014年7月的月度数据,采用非线性傅里叶单位根检验和滚动因果检验实证研究了汇率与物价之间的关系。傅里叶单位根检验结果表明,人民币对美元实际汇率为非线性平稳时间序列且存在一个结构突变点,购买力平价成立。参数稳定性检验结果显示,人民币汇率与我国CPI间的二元VAR模型在长期内较为稳定,短期内存在结构性变化。通过动态因果检验得出,人民币汇率与我国CPI之间存在双向动态因果关系,而且二者之间的影响关系与经济周期密切相关,通货膨胀严重时期汇率的传导效应更强。     

基于VAR模型的中国居民消费水平贝叶斯单位根检验

针对经济时序DF单位根检验方法在小样本条件下功效偏低问题,应用贝叶斯统计方法对中国居民消费水平进行单位根检验,提高单位根检验的功效水平,建立向量自回归居民消费水平模型,并通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗仿真结合贝叶斯因子分别对农村居民消费和城镇居民消费进行单位根检验,结果表明贝叶斯单位根检验方法解决了向量自回归模型超参数估计的难题,克服了经典单位根检验在经济时序小样本下功效偏低的缺陷,提高了模型预测精度.     

基于面板单位根检验的失业率结构突变研究

面板数据由于包含截面和时期提供了更多的信息,可以更好地分离出其中的随机成分而提高单位根检验的精度,考虑面板中的结构突变则可以进一步提高结论的准确性.通过构造基于结构突变的面板单位根检验方法,选取经合组织中具有代表性的15个国家年度失业率数据进行的实证分析表明:失业率指标为平稳性变量,在考虑结构突变时面板数单位根检验水平有了显著的提高,这为研究经济变量的平稳性,特别在观测期较短的情况下,提供了一种有效的研究手段.     

中国商业银行资本结构动态调整的影响因素研究

在国内金融市场逐渐走向世界的背景下,我国商业银行将面临着更加激烈的市场竞争环境。商业银行资本结构动态调整灵活性的高低,将影响商业银行能否得到健康发展。通过采用非线性最小二乘法对上市商业银行资本结构动态调整影响因素进行实证后发现,我国上市商业银行资本结构动态调整,与盈利能力、公司规模、成长性、市场竞争因素、经济增长呈现正相关性,与税负效应、不良贷款率、股权集中度、通货膨胀、股权流通性呈现负相关性,而与资产担保价值则无关;而在调整方向上则具有非对称性,资本结构向上调整的速度明显快于向下调整的速度。就不同类型银行而言,规模性因素、税收效应两个因素,对大型国有银行资本结构动态调整的影响比股份制银行以及城商行要显著,而不良贷款率的影响正好相反。就商业银行面临的市场竞争压力而言,所受的压力越大,其资本调整速度越快。因此,商业银行必须降低风险资产,提升银行资产的质量。国家层面,必须要发展债券市场,促进银行债权结构的改善;同时,适当改变监管政策,以促进商业银行间形成良性的市场竞争。     

基于最优资本监管模型的中国影子银行监管分析

基于Guillaume Plantin(2014)构建的最优资本监管模型并扩展引入社会投资总效用进行分析,结合中国影子银行影响因素的2003—2013年月度数据进行实证研究得出,影子银行的发展有逆监管周期效应,对传统银行放宽资本监管,正确规范和引导影子银行,可以在防范系统性风险的同时发挥影子银行的积极作用。     

基于CVar的风险调整资本收益率下的最优再保险策略

文章通过最优化保险人的风险调整资本收益率,得到最优的再保险策略。分析成数再保险时,得到结论为:风险全部自留可以使保险人的风险调整资本收益率最大化;分析停止损失再保险时,得到的结论为:存在一个最优的自留额使得保险人的风险调整资本收益率最大。     

基于CVar的风险调整资本收益率下的最优再保险策略

文章通过最优化保险人的风险调整资本收益率,得到最优的再保险策略。分析成数再保险时,得到结论为:风险全部自留可以使保险人的风险调整资本收益率最大化;分析停止损失再保险时,得到的结论为:存在一个最优的自留额使得保险人的风险调整资本收益率最大。     

基于上海证券交易所股票样本的资本资产定价模型有效性检验

本论文以CAPM在我国证券市场有效性检验为切入点,借助统计软件SPSS和EXCEL,选取上海证券交易所2007年1月至2011年3月的50只股票为样本,利用回归分析的方法对CAPM在上海证券交易所的有效性进行实证研究.研究结果表明在上海证券交易所股票的收益率与β系数的相关关系不显著,二者之间没有显著线性关系,CAPM目...     

集团财务资源配置对企业资本结构动态调整的影响——基于集团企业内部资本市场的研究

本文以2003-2012年上市公司集团为研究样本,分析集团总部在其下属上市公司中的现金分布情况,考察了集团财务资源配置水平对各上市公司资本结构动态调整的影响。研究表明:获得集团总部现金配比越高的上市子公司,其资本结构调整速度越慢;而集团总部现金配比越低的上市子公司,其资本结构调整速度越快。本文的经验证据将为完善集团公司内部资本市场提供思路。     

中国银行业的利润效率研究——基于傅里叶柔性函数的视角

商业银行的经营效率已成为近年来国内外学者研究的热点问题。本文尝试引入傅里叶柔性函数模型测算我国银行业的效率水平,为更加准确地判断商业银行的经营效率提供依据。研究表明：傅里叶函数模型拟合效果要优于超越对数函数模型;1999—2009年,我国商业银行的利润效率估计均值为0.9466,总体效率水平较高。     

Historical market-to-book in a partial adjustment model of leverage

Historical market-to-book has been shown to explain current leverage. Prior studies attribute the evidence to market timing. This study shows that with the presence of time-varying targets and adjustment costs, historical market-to-book has a significant impact on leverage even when firms do not time the market. The historical values of alternative market timing proxies, such as insider sales and the market sentiment index, are shown to have no effects on leverage while the historical values of alternative growth-option proxies do have effects. Overall, the evidence is largely consistent with a partial adjustment model of leverage.     

The role of credit ratings on capital structure and its speed of adjustment: an international study

Using an international dataset, we examine the role of issuers’ credit ratings in explaining corporate leverage and the speed with which firms adjust toward their optimal level of leverage. We find that, in countries with a more market-oriented financial system, the impact of credit ratings on firms’ capital structure is more significant and that firms with a poorer credit rating adjust more rapidly. Furthermore, our results show some striking differences in the speed of adjusting capital structure between firms rated as speculative and investment grade, with the former adjusting much more rapidly. As hypothesized, those differences are statistically significant only for firms based in a more market-oriented economy.     

The Dynamic Speed of Cash-Holding Adjustment in a Transition Economy: A New Approach and Evidence

Using a new approach, we estimate the speed of cash-holding adjustment for a typical transitional economy by using Chinese listed firms’ samples over 1999–2011. First, we use model-averaging techniques to identify reliably important cash-holding determinants. Second, we conduct Monte Carlo simulation using the real finance data to evaluate appropriateness of the empirical estimator from a variety of dynamic estimation methods and suggest an optimized system of generalized method of moments (OPT-GMM) as an appropriate econometric approach for speed estimation. Finally, we get the speed of 46 percent, which is significantly lower than the contemporary speed in the United Kingdom and the United States.     

中国银行控股公司资本充足率管理的实证研究

本文认为在当下金融危机环境下,研究银行资本充足问题是当下之急。因此,文章在对我国资本充足率现状总体描述之后,做出了细致的实证研究。具体实证过程通过一个变速一部分调整模型,来实现对我国资本充足水平和商业银行自身资本调整速度的影响因素的分析,并针对实证结果,给出了一些财务管理上的政策建议。     

Ultimate Ownership and Adjustment Speed Toward Target Capital Structures: Evidence from China

We investigate whether ultimate ownership affects firms’ adjustment speed toward target capital structures for Chinese publicly listed companies over the period 1999–2009. We divide our sample into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-SOEs according to their ultimate ownership. We find that SOEs have higher leverage ratios and slower adjustment speeds toward target capital structures. Our results are consistent with the trade-off theory, implying that the political resources of SOEs can lead to a higher persistence and slower leverage adjustment speeds in comparison to non-SOEs. Finally, our results also raise a question: Why do Chinese companies adjust their capital structure so fast?     

Are firms accessing venture funding more financially constrained? New evidence from capital structure adjustments

We analyze whether firms that receive venture capital (VC) at a later date face more financial constraints than a one-by-one matched sample of firms that did not receive VC funding (control group). The aim is to check whether their financial flexibility explains why they decide to seek external equity funding. In contrast with other papers, which focus on the sensitivity of investments to cash flow, we study this issue by applying a dynamic model to analyze the speed of adjustment to their target debt levels prior to receiving the first VC investment. We analyze a representative sample of 237 Spanish unlisted firms that received VC between 1995 and 2007 and its corresponding control group. We find that firms that receive VC funding show a significantly lower speed of adjustment than their matched peers before the initial VC round. It seems that the former are more concerned about funding the required investments than about adjusting the firm's debt ratio to a target level. Our results confirm the role of VC in filling the equity gap in constrained unlisted firms. From a capital structure perspective, VC may become a tool for these companies to balance their capital structure in a growth process.