复杂价值链对经济周期同步性的影响研究

国际贸易是经济周期传导的重要途径。 全球价值链分工体系的发展使国家间贸易关联程度与生产分割程度提高,对经济周期同步性产生影响。 文章使用 2000-2014 年世界投入产出数据库,以 38 个国家经济周期同步性为研究对象,探究复杂价值链对经济周期同步性的影响。 研究发现:生产长度对经济周期同步性存在显著的正向影响,生产长度越长,两国的经济周期同步性越强。     

阿拉伯海湾国家经济一体化及面临的挑战

阿拉伯海湾地区丰富的石油资源和年进口达1000亿美元以上的市场令世界瞩目。海湾6国在20世纪80年代初建立地区经济组织——阿拉伯海湾国家合作委员会以来,为促进各国经济贸易共同发展做出了可喜成绩。进入21世纪,海湾六国又在经济一体化道路上迈出新的步伐,成为世人关注的焦点之一。     

中国与海湾六国经贸关系的现状与前景

海湾六国石油资源极其丰富,石油出口收入的多少对其经济发展的影响很大。我国与海湾六国的贸易往来始于20世纪50年代,80年代开始逐步发展,90年代以后发展更为迅速。本文在介绍海湾六国的经济状况、我国与海湾六国经贸关系的基础上,对双边经贸关系的前景进行了展望。     

货币联盟收益成本分析——基于欧盟视角

货币联盟是一种区域间的协定,其中欧洲货币联盟是最成功的实践,各成员国共同实施货币政策,使用共同货币。文章通过收益成本分析来具体阐述货币联盟相关理论,加入货币联盟所带来的好处与避免浮动汇率产生的不确定、汇兑差额和成本等问题;加入货币联盟的代价就是货币联盟因使用固定汇率引起的经济稳定性导致的成本。各国通过比较加入货币联盟带给本国的收益与加入货币联盟所付出的代价,做出是否加入货币联盟的选择。     

大陆与台湾经济周期的同步性实证研究

本文从典型相关的角度,通过对1990年以来的大陆与台湾经济周期的同步性的实证分析可知,当以GDP作为衡量指标时,大陆与台湾之间不仅在长期内存在共同趋势,在短期内两地区的产出也存在共同周期;当以投资、消费等经济指标作为衡量指标时,这两组经济指标之间的典型相关关系属于强相关,这充分说明大陆与台湾经济周期的同步程度是非常显著的。     

东亚货币联盟的可行性研究

本文运用最优货币区理论，对东亚地区建立货币联盟的可行性进行了分析。结果表明：东亚地区目前整体上并不具备建立货币联盟的条件，但在日本等几个国家（地区）之间，则比较符合建立货币联盟的标准。所以，首先在东亚地区的这几个国家（地区）建立货币联盟，然后逐步向外围扩展是最可行的选择。     

中国大陆与台湾地区经济协动性研究

在对中国大陆和台湾地区1979-2010年经济周期进行阶段划分的基础上,本文使用相关系数和同步系数对两岸经济周期的协动性进行分段测算,发现1990年以后两岸经济周期具有强相关性,2000年以后两岸经济周期的转换具有强同步性。所以,中国大陆与台湾地区贸易和资本联系的不断加强是两岸经济周期高协动性的经济基础。     

海湾合作组织（GCC）成员国汽车准入制度介绍文

一、海湾合作组织（GCC）介绍 海湾合作委员会于1981年5月25日在阿联酋阿布扎比成立。其成员同为沙特阿拉伯、科威特、阿拉伯联合酋长固、卡塔尔、阿曼苏丹王国、巴林王国等6国。海湾合作组织的六个成员国政治、经济体制和发展水平相似，在政治、经济、外交、国防等方面有很多共同的利益，是中东地区一个重要的政治经济组织。     

我国消费对经济增长贡献的实证分析

从实证分析看,近年来我国MPC曲线与经济周期密切相关,MPC与经济增长存在着同步性,消费倾向的稳定性与经济增长的稳定性紧密相联,故消费对经济增长有巨大的贡献。但中国MPC与GNP增长同步下降,究其原因,制度变迁及其所带来的不确定性因素引起了消费倾向的波动,最后提出政策建议。     

To be or not to be in monetary union: A synthesis

Monetary union can benefit countries suffering from policy credibility problems if it eliminates the inflation bias and also allows for more efficient management of certain shocks. But it also carries costs as some stabilization may be feasible even in the absence of credibility, and this may be more than what an individual country can hope for in a monetary union. In this paper, we combine the stabilization and credibility branches of the currency union literature and construct a simple welfare criterion that can be used to evaluate alternative monetary arrangements. We produce examples where monetary union may be welfare improving even for low-modest levels of inflation bias (2-3%) as long as business cycles are not too a-synchronized across countries.     

Monetary,Financial and Fiscal Stability in the East African Community: Ready for a Monetary Union?

We examine prospects for a monetary union in the East African Community (EAC) by developing a stylised model of policymakers' decision problem that allows for uncertain benefits derived from monetary, financial and fiscal stability and then calibrating the model for the EAC for the period 2003–10. When policymakers properly allow for uncertainty, none of the countries wants to pursue a monetary union based on either monetary or financial stability grounds, and only Rwanda might favour it on fiscal stability grounds; we argue that robust institutional arrangements assuring substantial improvements in monetary, financial and fiscal stability are needed to compensate.     

Fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union

This paper addresses the optimal joint conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in a two-country model of a currency union with staggered price setting and distortionary taxes. A tractable linear-quadratic approximation permits a representation of the optimal policy plan in terms of targeting rules. In the optimal equilibrium, monetary policy should achieve aggregate price stability following a flexible inflation targeting rule. Fiscal policy should stabilize idiosyncratic shocks allowing for permanent variations of government debt but should abstain from creating inflationary expectations at the union level. Simple policy rules can approximate the optimal commitment benchmark through a mix of strict inflation targeting and flexible budget rules. Conversely, the welfare costs of balanced budget rules are at least one order of magnitude higher than conventional estimates of the costs of business cycle fluctuactions.     

The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view

This paper study the feasibility of a monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, by measuring the evolution of economic integration among them. Considering the critical role of crisis and shocks in the integration process within the region, we determine whether GCC countries are characterised by a common business cycle. We suggest a different empirical approach that, unlike previous studies, allows one to endogenously detect structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure for this region that is based on the time‐varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but also distinguishes these dynamics in terms of short‐ and long‐term cycles. Additionally, we can test whether certain countries tend to be more synchronised. The main finding of this study is that not all GCC countries share a common short‐term business cycle. However, in the long term, all country‐pairs indicate a medium‐level synchronisation in the most recent subperiods. The new role of the United Arab Emirates’ regional trade platform allows it to strengthen long‐term business cycle comovement, thus differentiating it from other GCC country‐pairs that have shown a decline in the last two subperiods.     

Real Output Co‐movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?

The East Asian region has experienced astonishing economic growth and integration over the past few decades. It is generally believed that a high degree of integration in the region would greatly shape the economic structure of each individual economy and has direct implications for the effectiveness of domestic stabilisation policy and policy coordination. This paper empirically examines the feasibility of forming a monetary union in East Asia by assessing the real output co‐movements among these economies. As suggested by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory that losing monetary independence would be the major cost for adopting a common currency, it would be less costly for the economies to form a monetary union if the business cycles are synchronised across countries. The cointegration test and the Vahid and Engle (1993 ) test for common business cycles are conducted to examine their long‐run relationship and short‐run interactions in real outputs, respectively. Our study found that some pair countries in the region share both the long‐run and short‐run synchronous movements of the real outputs. In particular, the short‐run common business cycles are found in some pairs of ASEAN economies consisting of Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, and in the Northeast Asian region consisting of Hong Kong, Korea and Mainland China, as well as between Japan and Taiwan. These findings have important implications for the economies in terms of adjustment costs when considering the adoption of a monetary union.     

Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?

Trade intensity increases the business cycle co-movement among industrial countries. Using annual information for 147 countries for the period 1960-99 we find that the impact of trade intensity on business cycle correlation among developing countries is positive and significant, but substantially smaller than that among industrial countries. Our findings suggest that differences in the responsiveness of cycle synchronization to trade integration between industrial and developing countries are explained by differences in the patterns of specialization and bilateral trade.     

Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia: The role of value‐added trade

We empirically investigate the relationship between business cycle synchronisation and the role of value‐added trade focusing on a panel of 12 Asian countries from 1995 to 2011. In addition, we propose the inclusion of two novel determinants, for example external value‐added trade intensity and exchange rate volatility and also saturate our empirical model with other common determinants found in the literature. Our findings first confirm that value‐added trade intensity, rather than gross trade intensity, has a sizable, positive and statistically significant impact on synchronisation among East Asian countries. Second, the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the business cycle synchronisation, which verifies that the exchange rate volatility is another important determinant of business cycle synchronisation. Our findings have important implications for the monetary cooperation in the region: strengthening trade linkage could reduce the costs of monetary cooperation by increasing the incidence of symmetric shocks.     

Business Cycles Synchronicity and Income Levels: Has Globalisation Brought us Closer Than Ever?

Research on business cycle linkages shows a tendency to model countries of relatively the same income levels jointly. However, the issue of whether these countries move along the same business cycles has not been formally investigated in the literature. In this paper, we take this approach and investigate whether each group of countries follows its own dynamics and is therefore subjected to the same business cycle and whether these cycles are independent of each other across income groups. Results indicate that high income per capita countries (HICs) tend to be guided by stronger similarity in business cycles than countries in the middle (MICs) and low income (LICs) groups. In search for an explanation of the business cycles synchronicity observed, panel data analysis was explored. The results from the robust fixed effects estimation show neither trade openness nor shocks to consumption underlie international business cycle synchronization, but rather shocks to oil prices.     

The emergence of regional business cycle in Africa—a reality or myth? A Bayesian dynamic factor model analysis

This paper examines the evolution and the underlying forces of the business cycle co-movements among seven African (A-7) countries over the period 1970–2016. These countries accounted for over 60% of regional GDP, have abundant natural resources, access to the global capital market and widely viewed as potential drivers of regional (or “African”) business cycle. We model the national business cycle using real output, consumption and investment. We employ a dynamic factor model to decompose fluctuations in these macro-variables into a regional, country-specific and idiosyncratic components using Bayesian methods. We also analyse the relative importance of some notable drivers of business cycle fluctuations found in the literature. We find that the idiosyncratic component is dominating cyclical fluctuations in the A-7 countries, while country-specific and regional factors play a negligible role suggesting the inexistence of a common regional cycle despite deepening intra-African trade. Among the driving variables, the terms-of-trade shocks exert greater influence on the A-7 business cycle, while exchange rate movements and changes in money supply explain sizeable fluctuations in consumption and investment in most of the A-7 countries. Shocks associated with changes in relative domestic oil prices, monetary and fiscal policies cause large output fluctuations.     

On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR,Common Trends,and Common Cycles Evidence

The suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is examined. The authors identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Alternatively, the authors test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. They find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, they do not find synchronous long‐run and short‐run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, the findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.