视野

全球2012世界贸易报告发布世界贸易组织7月18日在日内瓦发布的《2012世界贸易报告》显示,在2012年全球商品贸易排名中,中国出口位列第一,进口排第二位。包括中国在内的新兴经济体占据了全球贸易近一半的份额。报告显示,在2012年全球商品贸易额排名中,四个最大的出口国为中国、美国、德国和日本,进口国为美国、     

2013年我国外贸形势展望

回首2012年,欧洲债务危机不断发酵,美国经济增长动力不足,新兴市场国家经济减速,我国经济下行压力加大,全年外贸整体呈下行走势。在世界经济弱势增长的大背景下,我国外贸发展呈现进出口增速低位运行、出口商品结构持续优化、对主要贸易伙伴进出口分化、贸易方式持续改善、贸易主体格局更趋合理、中西部地区出口持续快速增长等特点。在主要经济体对外贸易增速普遍放缓或负增长的情况下,我国占全球贸易的份额有望保持稳定或微幅上升。2013年,我国外贸发展面临的内外部环境可能略好于2012年,但国际、国内的风险因素叠加仍将对我国外贸发展造成较大压力。预计2013年我国出口增速较2012年有所回升,但难有大幅改善,仍将远低于过去十年的平均增速,但进口增速将有所提高。     

贸易格局变迁为人民币国际化带来的新机遇

金融危机以来,新兴经济体异军突起,致使世界经济进入新一轮调整之中。文章通过系统梳理贸易计价货币选择理论,研究贸易格局变迁对计价货币选择的影响,提出当前贸易格局为人民币跨境贸易使用带来的新机遇,并通过情景分析量化估计六大经济体对华贸易提升人民币国际份额的潜在空间,最后提出相关结论与建议。     

中国附加值进出口额及其驱动因素分析——基于MRIO模型的实证研究

基于最终消费品价值来源分解的视角,利用WIOD数据和MRIO模型,本文从总量、国别、产业等三个视角测算和分析了中国1995-2011年附加值进、出口规模,并应用SDA方法考察了附加值贸易额增长的驱动因素。研究发现:中国附加值进、出口额及顺差额均快速增长;贸易对象以美欧日等发达经济体为主,但新兴经济体所占份额快速提升;进、出口主要集中于知识密集型制造业,以电子及光学设备为代表,而初级产品和资源产品的进口大幅度增长。附加值进口额的增长主要源于中国需求规模的扩大,而出口额的提高则主要归因于世界其他经济体需求规模的扩大、目的地国别需求结构的调整以及中国中间产品国际竞争力的提高等三类因素。     

努力促进进出口平稳增长

2013年,世界经济持续低速增长,总体处于政策刺激下的弱势复苏阶段。进入2014年,世界经济复苏环境继续改善,发达国家经济形势进一步好转,新兴经济体经济企稳,但全球经济调整尚未结束。受到世界经济低速增长拖累,2013年全球贸易形势依然低迷,特别是发达国家进口需求持续萎缩,贸易复苏动力明显不足。2014年世界经济贸易形势趋于改善,但困难和风险依然存在。     

拓展中国与主要新兴经济体国家的贸易关系——基于制成品出口技术结构的比较分析

随着欧债危机愈演愈烈,过度依赖欧美市场的中国正在加紧对新兴市场的开拓步伐。为了提高中国出口商品在新兴市场的国际竞争力,本文通过测度出口商品技术复杂度指标,首先计算了SITCRev.3至5位码下2600多种制成品的技术含量,在此基础上将所有制成品按技术含量从低到高排列后分成五类,然后计算了中国与11个崛起中的新兴经济体国家在每类产品上的出口份额,构建各新兴经济体的出口技术结构。通过比较中国与新兴经济体国家出口技术结构,考察中国与新兴经济体国家之间贸易的竞争域、贸易的发展空间、贸易的发展潜力,以及这种相互间的贸易替代域与贸易发展空间的动态变化。分析结果表明:入世以来,中国制成品出口技术结构继续升级,但是升级速度落后于印度;中国与印度、越南相比,低技术含量制成品的优势已经不明显,与俄罗斯、新加坡、韩国、马来西亚、巴西和墨西哥相比,中国在高技术和中偏高技术制成品上处于劣势。在这种后追前堵的趋势下,中国有落入"中等收入陷阱"的风险,据此提出了优化中国与各新兴经济体国家之间出口技术结构和跨越"中等收入陷阱"的政策建议。     

我国对主要新兴经济体出口的影响因素研究——基于面板数据SUR模型的实证分析

文章选取巴西、印度、俄罗斯和南非作为主要新兴经济体,构建贸易引力模型,在对1995~2011年相关面板数据进行单位根检验和协整检验的基础上,运用面板数据SUR模型就我国对这些主要新兴经济体出口的具体影响因素进行了实证研究。结果发现,经济发展阶段相似、地理位置近以及双边较快的经济增速有利于我国对新兴经济体的出口,但人民币实际有效汇率升值却对其有消极影响;值得注意的是,我国出口商品档次目前尚能满足低收入新兴经济体的进口需求,但却不适应较高收入新兴经济体的消费偏好。此外,运输成本对出口的影响要视双边贸易的竞争性或互补性而定。     

东亚双边进口贸易流量与潜力:基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚10个主要经济体1995-2004年的面板数据,建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚进口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,国家经济规模、中国-东盟自由贸易区、东盟自由贸易区、进口国制度、国际直接投资、国家间的经济水平差距和地理距离是东亚双边进口贸易流量的主要影响因素。中国香港、泰国、日本和印度尼西亚对东亚的进口潜力较大,中国、马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡对东亚的进口潜力较小。加强东亚区域内最终产品市场和区域贸易合作的发展、推进东亚各经济体的制度改革和调整、积极合理地引进国际直接投资、加强物流建设与合作,应成为东亚各经济体未来重要的政策取向。     

投资美国：寻找大商机

美国,世界第一大经济体,中国第二大贸易伙伴,第一大出口市场,第六大进口来源地,第三大技术进口来源地。     

中韩文化贸易发展状况分析

在当今世界的发展中,文化贸易已成为推动经济发展的不可或缺力量。中国作为世界第二大经济体的大国,在国际文化市场中所占的份额却很少,在电视剧、音乐、游戏等行业虽然贸易额在稳定增长,但是中国文化贸易发展形势依然很严峻。韩国与我国是睦邻友好的国家,但是在文化贸易发展上却优越于我国,近些年来韩国文化贸易迅速发展,成为世界排名第五的文化大国。对中国文化贸易的发展现状而言,应借鉴韩国文化贸易发展的成功经验,以促进中国文化贸易发展。     

Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies

Nowadays foreign exchange interventions occur in emerging market economies, whereas empirical studies on interventions mainly refer to advanced economies. However, interventions in emerging markets are different from those in advanced economies: they occur ‘regularly’ and central banks have considerable leverage, derived from relatively high reserves, some non‐sterilisation, the central bank’s information advantage and capital controls. Consequently, these interventions often successfully impact the level and volatility of exchange rates. Nevertheless, more research on interventions in emerging markets is needed analysing the influence of heterogeneous institutional circumstances, examining the role of central bank communication and using high‐frequency data.     

美国复兴制造业对中国贸易的影响

美国制造业具有增加值规模最大、创新能力最强和世界级大型企业最多的历史特征,但是在发展中经济体的追赶下,其制造业占世界份额趋于下降、失业增加。美国政府把复兴制造业作为重振经济和增加就业的途径。政府致力于发展先进制造业,油气的大量开采和廉价供应刺激了对制造业的投资,一些劳动密集型制造业也迁回本土。美国复兴制造业对我国制造品贸易和制造业发展既有挑战也有机遇。     

Communicating CSR practices – Role of internationalization of emerging market firms

Emerging markets suffer from institutional voids, and in such resource deficient economies, corporate social responsibility is given scant attention. However, when firms from emerging markets globalize, international stakeholders become suspicious about firms’ products, services, and business practices. Grounded in the liability of emergingness and legitimacy theory and using a sample of 134 manufacturing firms from one emerging market, India, this study explores how firms’ international diversification intent and market-seeking motives influence emerging markets’ firms communication of socially responsible activities as an attempt to eliminate illegitimacy. Furthermore, the study reveals that business group affiliation enhances the influence of internationalization on firms’ communication of socially responsible activities.     

Transforming Business Models in Fast-Emerging Markets–Lessons from India

There is a need for understanding the entrepreneurship and business models in the emerging economies, especially the fast-expanding ones, from a different perspective as compared to the developed economies. The consistent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, significant socioeconomic potential, untapped needs of the population, and economic growth potential in the fast-expanding emerging economies like the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) have changed the paradigm for investment, thereby creating a new economic development reality and focus for the global companies. However, achieving success in these emerging markets has its own unique mix of challenges. This requires a transformative and innovative mind-set toward conceptualization of a working business model that can fit into the reality of the socioeconomic and cultural challenges of these emerging markets. Further, the business model changes and alignment in these emerging markets require closer analysis and understanding of the global trends as well as ability to leverage the emerging technologies and linkages. The objective of this article is to explore the magnitude of opportunities and emerging business models transforming the socioeconomic landscape in fast-expanding emerging markets. In doing so, the article attempts to provide an overview of the emerging business model typologies and patterns that will enable the global companies to make better-informed decisions and build their presence in the fast-expanding emerging markets. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Impact of Market Orientation on the Internationalization of Retailing Firms: Tesco in Eastern Europe

This paper investigates a Western retailer's market orientation levels in two emerging markets. We examine whether the market orientation-company performance link holds true for retailers in emerging economies, despite environmental differences. By using concepts from key studies we have assimilated a fully representative model - applied through interviews with top management from Tesco and its subsidiaries and affiliates in Hungary and Slovenia. Using this example, we find that the market orientation-business performance link is valid for Western retailers in emerging economies. Here, the retailer applied market orientation predominately through; the use of matching with suppliers of own brand goods; top management emphasis on market orientation and risk taking. Intelligence generation and dissemination was exercised via global processes such as brand review.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Role of Market Shares

This paper examines the effects of changing market shares on exchange rate pass-through to US import prices. Based on a static model of imperfect competition, I predict that a country with a larger share of a host’s import market will have lower pass-through than its competitors. Using highly disaggregated data on US imports, I implement rolling regressions to calculate unique quarterly values of pass-through for specific goods from each exporting country. These values are compared across market shares, indicating a general trend of decreasing pass-through for larger shares. Most specifically, as predicted by the model, the country holding the largest share of the market has significantly lower pass-through than its competitors. The negative relationship between pass-through and market share holds across most categories of goods, most notably the larger categories of imports. Lastly, I show the market share effect is stronger following larger fluctuations in the exchange rate, particularly after large dollar appreciations.     

Value investing in emerging markets: risks and benefits

This paper identifies a subset of emerging markets that have higher than average expected returns and studies risk properties of this subset by investment simulations. It is found that: (1) the portfolio of ‘value’ emerging markets generates superior returns; and (2) statistical measures of its risk are close to the corresponding measures for the portfolio of all emerging markets. The statistical significance of these results has been checked by a bootstrap procedure. The results imply that the optimal share of emerging markets increases from 0% for an equally weighted portfolio to approximately 25% for the portfolio of undervalued emerging markets.     

新兴经济体市场需求变化态势与中国企业选择——基于东莞外向型企业拓展新兴市场的调研

国际金融危机后,新兴经济体成为世界经济复苏及其持续发展的主要动力来源。以IMF界定的26个新兴市场国家为范围,通过东莞外向型企业拓展新兴市场的情况调研,发现新兴市场需求具有进口规模不大、增速快、市场需求差异比较大等特征,对中国企业拓展新兴市场具有一定挑战。中国企业必须转变对新兴市场的观念,采取多路径进入新兴市场,并加强对新兴市场的维护。     

Globalization and female labor force participation: The role of trading partners

This paper uses industrial level data from 21 developing and emerging economies over the period of 1995–2013, to analyze the impact of globalization, in particular, trade orientation of industries onto female employment share. The fractional probit estimation reveals that taking cumulative measures of export and import share often camouflages the impact of trade on female employment. The disintegration of export and import share according to their trading partners reveals that exports and imports from the developed world alone contribute to higher female employment. Moreover, it is the low-tech exports to developed countries and high-tech imports from developed countries which results in an increase in female employment. These findings call for the strengthening of trade ties with the developed world, especially when it comes to promoting low-tech exports and high-tech imports. Our results also reveal that the trading links with the developed world can further enhance female employment if developing country possesses a greater pool of educated female labor force.     

Flying under the radar: Foreign firm visibility and the efficacy of political strategies in emerging economies

Although emerging markets hold great potential, foreign firms operating in those markets are exposed to a comparatively higher level of risk as compared to developed markets. We examine the role of foreign firms’ visibility in shaping the effect of the strategies they deploy to reduce their exposure to environmental risk. Building on and extending research on political strategies we develop hypotheses and test them against data from 173 MNE subsidiaries operating in six emerging economies. We find that visibility affects not only the strength, but also the direction of the association between political strategies and foreign firms’ exposure to risk. Our findings enhance understanding of the use of different political strategies for reducing their exposure to risk and of the moderating role of their visibility in emerging markets.