WORKFORCE AGEING AND THE SUBSTITUTION OF LABOUR: THE ROLE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF LABOUR IN AUSTRIA

We study the sensitivity of projected economic productivity (output per worker) with respect to alternative projections of labour supply and alternative assumptions on the substitutability of workers at different ages. We show that in a pure labour economy assuming imperfect substitution of workers at different ages implies an increase in relative productivity during the next two decades. For a decreasing or hump‐shaped age‐specific productivity profile a negative tradeoff between an increasing labour force at older ages and aggregate productivity results. A decline in productivity can be attenuated by adjusting labour force participation rates to levels currently observed in Nordic countries.     

Use of Bank and Nonbank Financial Services: Financial Decision Making by Immigrants and Native Born

This study examines the joint decisions made by immigrant and native‐born families about whether or not to have a bank account and to use nonbank financial services (NBFS ). Immigrant families, especially those from Mexico or other Latin American countries, have a higher probability of using NBFS than native‐born families, regardless of their banking status. Residing in concentrated ethnic enclaves or being a US citizen, however, lowers the probability of using these services. Similarly, native‐born Black and Hispanic families are more likely to use these services than native‐born White families. Our findings support continued efforts to encourage mainstream participation among immigrant and minority native‐born families. Having access to mainstream financial services can help these families establish financial stability and economic mobility. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study of immigrant families' joint decision making about using NBFS and bank account ownership.     

Labour mobility in the EU: Dynamics,patterns and policies

The continued economic crisis has become a major test for the labour markets of individual member states. Labour mobility within the European Union has the potential to help to reduce labour market pressures and ease economic imbalances. However, a long-term loss of working age population can be detrimental to sending countries. This Forum explores mobility patterns within the European Union and analyses the labour market and welfare effects of labour mobility via case studies of the UK, Poland, Germany and Spain. It also examines a number of its aspects that have important political and institutional relevance for the European Union and its future.     

US immigration policies and dynamics of cross‐border workforce in agriculture

Given the contentious debate on immigration, this study develops a dynamic model to analyse the effects of stricter border and domestic enforcement and streamlining the guest‐worker programme on cross‐border migration from Mexico, employment and production in US labour‐intensive and Mexican agriculture and the US and Mexican wage rates. The model incorporates labour‐leisure decisions of Mexican workers and labour market dynamics and linkages. The findings show stricter border and domestic controls exacerbate the labour‐shortage problems and reduce the US agricultural production. Streamlining the guest‐worker programme provides a steady supply of farm workers and has negligible impact on the US wage.     

Structural Change,Economic Crisis and International Labour Migration in East Asia

Increased international labour migration was one important dimension of structural change and globalisation in East Asia from the mid 1980s. Large international movements of mainly unskilled contract labour occurred in response to widening wage gaps between more and less developed countries in the region as the former experienced rapid structural change. Labour importing countries increasingly relied on unskilled migrant workers in less preferred jobs, in both export‐oriented and non‐tradable goods industries. The Asian economic crisis dramatically influenced the context in which international labour mobility had occurred in the pre‐crisis period. Important issues included a possible reversal in role of international migration in structural change, both among unskilled contract workers and more skilled migrants, and replacement of migrants by unemployed local workers. The paper argues that the Asian economic crisis did not reverse the fundamental trend toward greater reliance on unskilled migrant workers in agriculture, manufacturing and service industries. Business and professional migration remained significant and even rose in some countries during the crisis. However, several countries were forced to develop a more coherent policy towards migrant workers, in light of the social impact of the crisis.     

Structural Reforms and Labour‐market Outcomes: International Panel‐data Evidence

This paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro‐level labour‐market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, the average wage index, and overall and female employment levels and labour force participation rates. Together, these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labour market and the aggregate welfare of workers. Yet, to our knowledge, there seems to be no other comprehensive empirical investigation in the existing literature of the impact of structural reforms at the cross‐country macro‐level on labour‐market outcomes other than the unemployment rate. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labour‐market outcomes up to 10 years on either side of each country's structural reform year, we run fixed‐effects ordinary least squares and instrumental variables regressions to account for the likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labour‐market outcomes. Overall, the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labour. Redistributive effects in favour of workers, along the lines of the Stolper‐Samuelson effect, may be at work.     

The Positive Effects of the Schengen Agreement on European Trade

Enacted in 1985, the Schengen Agreement is widely heralded as both a symbol and major institutional advancement of the European project. By eliminating passport requirements for workers, the compact ostensibly produces gains from travel, ease of market access and economies of scale. Yet despite these optimistic predictions, scholars know little about the actual effects of Schengen on trade. We fill this void by identifying why labour mobility should expand the cross‐country exchange of goods and services and then test our theory with data from Europe spanning the period 1980 to 2011. We argue that labour mobility resulting from Schengen yields positive effects on trade by increasing demand for foreign goods, improving awareness of low‐cost producers abroad and lowering the risks associated with buying and selling outside the country. Using the gravity model of trade, we show empirically that Schengen membership makes European states more robust trading partners.     

Liberalising the Movement of Natural Persons: A Lost Decade?

Liberalisation of international trade in services through the Movement of Natural Persons (Mode 4) remains one of the least negotiated issues of trade policy among the 144 members of the World Trade Organisation. Economists believe that there is a basic convergence of economic interest between the developed and the developing world for liberalising Mode 4. Yet the multilateral trading system has not facilitated greater worker mobility between the labour‐surplus and labour‐scarce countries. Is there any economic logic as to why cross‐border movements of workers have not followed the pattern predicted by international trade theory? Or are there strong socio‐political barriers that have come in the way of liberalising Mode 4? These are some of the questions the paper attempts to answer. The paper shows that the economic arguments against the free movement of natural persons are based on the narrow perspective of the welfare of domestic workers while ignoring the benefit it brings to the economy as a whole. Further, non‐economic arguments miss the point that the movement of workers under Mode 4 of GATS is temporary in nature, and so unlikely to have any lasting social and cultural spillovers. The paper gives specific illustrations from the recent past where temporary import of workers from labour‐surplus countries has enabled both developed and developing countries sustain their economic growth. It concludes by arguing that the environment for renegotiating WTO commitments under this important sector of international trade in services is better than ever before, even though the current world economic slowdown may delay actual negotiations for a while.     

International Migration and Child labour in Developing Countries

This paper investigates the labor market effect of international migration on child work in countries of origin. We use an original cross‐country survey dataset, which combines information on international migration with detailed  individual‐level data on child labour at age 5–14 in a wide range of developing countries. By exploiting both within and cross‐country variation and controlling for country fixed effects, we find strong and robust evidence on the role of international mobility of workers in reducing child labour in disadvantaged households through changes in the local labour market.     

Liberalising Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: An Agenda for the Development Round

We discuss liberalising the temporary mobility of workers under Mode 4 of the GATS, particularly the movement of medium and low skilled service providers between developing and developed countries. Such mobility potentially offers huge returns: a flow equivalent to three per cent of developed countries’ skilled and unskilled work forces would generate an estimated increase in world welfare of over US$150 billion, shared fairly equally between developing and developed countries. The larger part of this emanates from the less‐skilled, essentially because losing higher‐skilled workers cuts output in developing countries severely. The mass migration of less skilled workers raises fears in developed countries for cultural identity, problems of assimilation and the drain on the public purse. These fears are hardly relevant to temporary movement, however. The biggest economic concern from temporary mobility is its competitive challenge to local less skilled workers. But as populations age and the average levels of training and education rise, developed countries will face an increasing scarcity of less skilled labour. Temporary mobility thus actually offers a strong communality of interest between developing and developed countries. The remainder of the paper looks at the GATS provisions on Mode 4 and the commitments that have been made under it. The paper reviews several official proposals for the Doha talks, including the very detailed one from India, and considers several countries’ existing schemes for the temporary movement of foreign workers. Many countries have long had bilateral foreign worker programmes, and some regional agreements provide for liberal and flexible movement. These show what is feasible and how concerns can be overcome. We caution that, to be useful, any WTO agreement must increase mobility, not just bureaucratise it. The paper concludes with some modest and practical proposals. We suggest, inter alia, that licensing firms to arrange the movement of labour is the most promising short‐term approach to increasing temporary mobility.     

Productivity growth,Smith effects and Ricardo effects in Euro Area's manufacturing industries

We analyse the determinants of labour productivity across (a sample of) EA member states. We focus on the divergent dynamics before and after the financial crisis, and of core countries relative to peripheral countries. We ground our empirical analysis in Paolo Sylos-Labini's productivity equations. We test different models, including a Panel 2S-LS model and a Panel vector autoregression model. Our preliminary findings confirm and strengthen Sylos-Labini's main insights. Labour productivity in manufacturing industries is strongly and positively correlated with the market size (Smith effect), the relative cost of labour (Ricardo effect), the absolute cost of labour (organization effect) and past investment, whereas it is negatively correlated with current investment. Furthermore, we find evidence that the crisis has affected the size of these effects. Focusing on the core periphery dichotomy, the signs of the effects are the same for both groups of countries, although the Smith, Ricardo and long-run investment effects are usually stronger for core countries compared to peripheral countries. The opposite holds for the organization effect, while investment effects are less clear.     

The rise of the machines: Capital imports and real manufacturing wages in 57 nations

Outward-oriented policy reform has attracted a large number of academics to the study of the trade-labour market nexus. One of these fields has focused on capital intensive (machinery) imports and its effect on manufacturing wages. The skill-enhancing-trade (SET) hypothesis was put forth to explain a potential relationship where an inflow of capital imports results in increased demand for skilled labour and decreased that of unskilled labour, and thus resulted in a rise in skilled wages and a decrease in their unskilled counterparts. This study revisits this hypothesis with a panel from the manufacturing sector of 57 nations. We improve upon previous studies in a number of ways. We add developed nations to the sample and examine capital imports from rich countries as well as the rest of the world. This takes into account the prominence of vertical production networks in international trade. We adhere closely to the neo-classical trade model and employ definitions of skilled and unskilled workers that capture the production process of particular items. Finally, we fit a robust dynamic panel data model that accounts for the endogeneity of the determinants of trade and wages. In this way we test whether the SET hypothesis is generally applicable as opposed to previous studies which use an ad hoc selection of countries and variables. We find that the SET hypothesis is not driving changes in manufacturing wages. Instead, worker productivity and GDP per capita explain these labour market outcomes.     

Do illegal migrants compete with national workers?

Conclusion  Some evidence regarding the effects of illegal or irregular immigrants on the receiving country's labour market is available but it is very limited considering the complexity entailed. It is clear that foreign irregular labour damages native workers more than regular foreign labour, but irregularity in employment is very difficult to pursue in countries with a large informal sector. Destination countries should first fight complete illegality in the country and in the job at any cost, and leave the labour office with the responsibility of providing incentives to get a legal job through frequent controls and high penalties.     

External Debt,Labour Productivity Growth and Convergence: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) has long suffered from lagging productivity and excessive levels of indebtedness. Using both parametric and non‐parametric techniques, this paper examines the impact of external debt on labour productivity growth and convergence across SSA economies over the period 1970–2010. The results indicate the presence of debt‐overhang effects, regardless of model and sample specification. Debt reduction through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Multilateral Debt Relief initiatives enhanced growth but was not successful in offsetting the debt‐overhang effects. Moreover, excessive levels of external debt were responsible for divergence in output per worker over the early 1990s. Although this trend was reversed over the 2000s, reduction in debt through the debt relief initiatives seems to have been insufficient in helping heavily indebted countries in SSA catch up with the labour productivity levels of the best‐performing economies in the region.     

EU enlargement and labour markets in the CEECs

The implications for labour markets are central to any political and economic evaluation of EU Eastern enlargement. The resulting new levels of unemployment and of wages will have direct effects on social welfare in the acceding countries as well as in the present member states of the EU. Furthermore, employment and wages are substantial factors of political stability in the central and eastern European countries (CEECs). The following paper analyses the present situation on the labour markets in the CEECs and discusses the effects of their reintegration into the Western European system and the resulting implications for labour market and wage policy institutions. Helpful comments by participants of the 2nd convention of the CEEISA “Globalisation of International Relations—Implications for Central and Eastern European Countries”, Warsaw, 15–17 June 2000, and of the 4th International IMAD Conference “Institutions in Transition”, Portoroz (Slovenia), 23–24 June 2000, are gratefully acknowledged.     

The employment of foreigners in Western European industrial countries

Not least due to the change in overall economic conditions, the employment of foreign workers in Western Europe has in recent years become increasingly controversial. The following two articles deal with different aspects of labour migration. Heinz Werner presents a survey of policies towards foreign workers and their families in the various countries of Western Europe and discusses possible future developments. Thomas Straubhaar examines the significance of northward migration for the economies of the Southern European countries of origin.     

Globalization and Hong Kong's labour market: the deregulation paradox

The globalization of business has affected Hong Kong, giving rise to important changes in its labour market and with impacts on workers and labour organizations. This has been felt in the migration of manufacturing plants to China in combination with labour market deregulation via the government's guest worker policy. We examine the institutional implications of liberalizing the previous ban on the admission of guest workers. While this seeming reversal was tantamount to deregulation, it also produced regulation via a new body of norms and rules governing guest labour which were, paradoxically, restrictive and disabling for the affected parties.     

Do Immigrant Nurses in Canada See a Wage Penalty? An Empirical Study

The purpose of this study is to analyse the labour market for female immigrant nurses in Canada and to address the following question: does a nurse with foreign educational credentials have the same earning potential compared with a nurse who was educated in Canada? This is part of a more general question on economic discrimination against immigrants. Using data from the confidential master files of the 2001 Canadian Census on Individuals, this study finds that nurses educated outside of Canada do face wage penalties. This indicates that their credentials might not be fully recognized and/or valued in the Canadian labour market for registered nurses. This result is important to the business world since it suggests the possibility of a general finding that immigrant credentials may not be readily transferable and compensated in a new country. This can result in qualified workers not being able to gain meaningful employment and this source of labour might not be adequately used to fill jobs in industries facing labour shortages.     

Is FTA/EPA effective for a developing country to attract FDI? The knowledge‐capital model revisited

To prepare an answer to the question of how a developing country can attract foreign direct investment (FDI), this paper explored the factors and policies that may help bring FDI into a developing country by utilising an extended version of the knowledge‐capital model. With a special focus on the effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) or an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between a pair of market and non‐market countries, simulations with the model revealed the following: (i) although FTA/EPA generally tends to increase FDI to a developing country, the possibility of improving welfare through increased demand for skilled and unskilled labour decreases as the size of the country grows; (ii) a developing country may suffer severe welfare losses through FTA/EPA if the availability of skilled labour is extremely limited; and (iii) a developing country can enhance welfare gains from a FTA, and it is even possible to recover the welfare effects from negative to positive, by making the arrangement an EPA.