Economic Reform,Skill Formation and Foreign Capital

Does trade liberalisation promote skill formation and positively influence the inflow of foreign capital in an economy? How do incentives offered to foreign capital affect skill formation and skilled‐unskilled wage inequality? Is liberalisation of agricultural exports counterproductive to skill formation and foreign capital inflow in the economy? We try to capture these relationships between foreign capital and skill formation in a small open economy facing various exogenous shocks. Among other results, we show that import liberalisation increases skill formation and the inflow of foreign capital in the country. We explore the evolving state of the skilled‐unskilled wage gap in a regime of greater skill formation.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality: Evidence from China's policy change

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on local urban inequality in China. Specifically, we consider the FDI policy change as an exogenous shock on the local labour markets. We find that cities that have experienced a bigger policy change in promoting FDI between 1997 and 2002 are significantly more unequal in 2005. This pattern is mainly driven by the positive association between FDI liberalisation and skill premia. The result holds after we control for other policy changes, such as privatisation of state-owned enterprises, infrastructure and trade liberalisation. We then turn to investigate the mechanisms using firm and individual-level information. Our firm-level evidence shows that FDI firms not only hire relatively more high-skilled workers but also provide relatively higher wages to high-skilled workers compared to domestic firms. Moreover, the individual-level analysis shows that FDI has a significantly positive spillover effect on wages received by skilled workers employed by state-owned enterprises, but not wages of unskilled workers.     

Market Structure and Market Access

We explore an issue at the nexus of domestic competition policy and international trade, the interaction between goods trade and market power in domestic trade and distribution sectors. We examine the effect of variations in conditions of domestic competition in services on trade volumes in goods in the cases of both linear and nonlinear import demand, including standard form CES‐based gravity models of bilateral trade flows. Theory suggests a set of linkages between service‐sector pricing and goods trade supported by econometrics involving imports of 22 OECD countries vis‐a‐vis 69 exporters. Competition in distribution services affects the volume of trade in goods. Additionally, because of interaction between tariffs and pricing, the market structure of the domestic service sector becomes increasingly important as tariffs are reduced. Indeed, depending on the degree of competition, market access concessions on tariffs may be effectively undone in some cases by changes in margins. For exporters, we find that service competition in destination markets matters most for exporters from smaller, poorer countries. Our results also suggest that while negotiated agreements leading to cross‐border services liberalisation may boost goods trade as well, they may also lead to a fall in goods trade when such liberalisation involves FDI leading to increased service sector concentration.     

Exchange Rates,Employment and Labour Market Rigidity

In this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors.     

South–South Trade and Skill Premia

Contrary to the predictions of the 2 × 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin model, empirical evidence shows that the skill premium increased in some developing countries and decreased in others after trade liberalisation. This paper attempts to reconcile the empirical evidence with the theoretical predictions by introducing a model where South–South trade can produce the observed patterns of skill premia in the South. In this context, South–South trade expands the import range of the country that reduces the tariff. This increases the demand for and the cost of skilled workers in the other country. This also leads the country that reduces the tariff to expand its export range and reduce its import range. Therefore, the country that reduces the tariff experiences an increase in its export range, which leads to an increase in the skill premium. As the impact on the import range is ambiguous, it is possible that the other country experiences a decline in the skill premium. Thus, trade liberalisation between Southern countries can cause an increase in the skill premium in one and a decrease in the skill premium in another.     

Exchange Rate Effects on Domestic Prices in Bulgaria and Poland: Progress in Making Markets?

The economic liberalization which has occurred in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past 15 years generally has involved establishing domestic markets and privatizing state‐owned firms, both with the intention of integrating the CEE economies into the global economy and allowing the benefits of competition to be realized. We explore how well this has been accomplished in two countries, Poland and Bulgaria, and the domestic conditions that contribute to its accomplishment. The sensitivity of domestic markets to international shocks, as reflected in exchange rate effects on domestic prices, may be viewed as an indicator of how integrated a country’s markets are into the global economy, and a proxy for competition in those markets. In explaining variation in exchange‐rate pass‐through, we examine the impact of market structure, economic liberalization and infrastructure as factors contributing to the development of competitive markets. We find that although integration into global markets can significantly increase market competitiveness, domestic factors also play a significant role.     

Costly investment and complementarities in an international trade model with directed technological change

We investigate the impacts on the skill premium and on economic growth in an innovator‐imitator general equilibrium growth model assuming: (a) directed technological change; (b) international trade of intermediate goods; (c) internal costly investment in both physical capital and R&D; and (d) complementarities between intermediate goods in aggregate production. With trade of intermediate goods, the complementarities degree and investment costs influence the economic growth of both countries, but do not affect the countries' skill premia, which are directed by technological knowledge. Additionally, in agreement with related empirical literature, openness to trade of intermediate goods leads to a higher equilibrium skill premium in both countries, whereas its impact on the common growth rate can vary in sign.     

Competitive pressure,innovation and trade protection: Evidence from US patent data

Recent theoretical models have suggested that the relationship between competition and innovation may best be characterised as an inverted‐U shape: firms in industries with low levels of competition are more likely to innovate in the wake of increased competition as they attempt to escape competition, while those in highly competitive industries will decrease innovation in the wake of increased competition as the profit incentive to innovate dissipates. Results from other studies have found positive as well as negative relationships between innovation and competition. In a parallel literature, trade economists have produced conflicting results regarding the impact of trade liberalisation on innovation. One stream of research has shown that increased access to imported intermediate goods increases productivity, suggesting a positive relationship between imports and innovation. Others have hypothesised that firms may use the technology embodied in intermediate inputs as a substitute for domestic innovation. In this paper, we merge these divergent literatures and investigate whether innovation, as measured by the production of patents by US manufacturers, has been impacted by market competition and tariff reductions. Our empirical findings indicate that insulation from imports in the form of higher tariffs on final goods was associated with innovation until the late 1980s, while falling tariffs on intermediate goods appear to have facilitated innovation during the 1990s. We also find evidence of the inverted U‐shaped relationship between market competition and innovation.     

市场竞争、竞争阶段与产业国际竞争力

波特等国外学者普遍认为,一个国家产业内的市场竞争能够提升该产业的国际竞争力,而本文通过我国彩电业的实证研究却得出了与此相反的结论。由此,本文以“竞争阶段”这一概念为基础,提出一个新的分析框架统一了上述两种不同的观点:市场竞争强度与产业国际竞争力之间存在着一个类似于倒U型的关系,最适的竞争强度应该出现在寡头阶段,我国与发达国家产业所处竞争阶段的不同造成了研究结论上的差异。现阶段我国产业多数处于分散型竞争状态,引导形成适度集中的寡头市场结构是有利于提高产业国际竞争力的正确政策选择。     

Industrial Specialization,Catching‐up and Labour Market Dynamics

This paper presents a dynamic model as a heuristic tool to discuss some issues of changing industrial specialization which arise in the context of catching‐up processes of (technologically) less advanced economies and the impact which various scenarios of such catching‐up processes might have on the labour market dynamics both in the advanced and in the catching‐up economies. In analysing the evolution of international specialization, we demonstrate the twin pressures exerted upon the industrial structures of “northern” economies: competition from “type‐A southern” economies, which maintain a comparative competitive strength in labour‐intensive and less skill‐intensive branches, and competition from “type‐B catching‐up” economies, whose catching‐up increasingly focuses upon branches in which the initial productivity gaps and hence the scope for catching‐up are the highest. The contrast between these two catching‐up scenarios allows the explicit analysis of the implications of “comparative advantage switchovers” between northern and southern (type B) economies for labour market dynamics.     

Jobs and Exposure to International Trade within the Service Sector in Sweden

To establish in which service industries there is international trade (or it may potentially exist), we calculate locational Ginis for different industries. The basic idea is that from this measure of regional concentration of different activities within a country we can identify industries where there appears to be regional trade, and hence also a potential for international trade. Based on our method, we find that: (i) the number of employed in tradable service appears to be at least as large as in the manufacturing sector, (ii) tradable service is much more skill intensive than manufacturing, and (iii) lately, the employment in tradable service has increased substantially. We argue that the last mentioned result is consistent with the substantial growth of skilled labour in Sweden since the mid‐1990s (Rybczynski effect) and factors leading to increased relative demand for skilled labour. Particularly, increased competition from and offshoring to low‐wage countries seem recently to have had a considerable impact on the creation of skilled jobs and the displacement of less skilled jobs in the tradable sector in Sweden. Furthermore, we apply a similar method as for industries to identify tradable occupations. Using our classification of tradable industries and tradable occupations in a Mincer type wage equation, we find that workers in such industries and occupations receive a wage premia of 12–13 per cent.     

The return to value in Asian stock markets

This paper investigates the returns to value strategies in four Asian stock markets: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore exhibit value premia while Taiwan shows value discounts. The impact of firm characteristics on value premia differs across the four markets. The robustness tests indicate that the value premia are time-varying. They become greater in the post-crisis period across all four countries, indicating that high volatility during the crisis period did understate the value premia. The value strategy's excess return is sensitive to the sample selection rule and the firm size and liquidity effects. With tighter sample selection criteria, value premia tend to decline, which indicates that both the firm size effect and the liquidity effect are important sources of value premia. Unequal weighting assigned to financial variables in constructing the Average Price Rank (APR) based on the overall performance of single-variable approach does not necessarily improve the results.     

Services Offshoring and its Impact on Productivity and Employment: Evidence from Germany, 1995–2006

Economists have recently recognised services offshoring as an important influence on domestic labour market outcomes. Services are of particular interest since their significance has grown in terms of both quantity and quality. Only one and a half decades ago, most services were considered non‐tradable, but the emergence and development of new information and communication technologies has made many services internationally tradable. The liberalisation of international trade in services trade has further accelerated the volume of services trade. Our econometric estimations focus on services offshoring by German manufacturing sectors. We use revised input–output data from 1995 to 2006. We first estimate the impact of services offshoring on labour productivity. We then measure the effects of services offshoring on labour demand. The results show that services offshoring increased sectoral labour productivity, but reduced German manufacturing employment. The overall results suggest that labour demand decreased over 1995–2006, because labour‐reducing productivity and substitution effects dominated labour‐augmenting scale effects from services offshoring.     

Manufacturing restructuring and the role of real exchange rate shocks

Using a new and extensive micro data set we investigate the impact of a change in international competitive pressure on industrial performance and restructuring. Unlike previous studies we are able to account for the heterogeneity across firms in their exposure to foreign competition. We focus on a situation akin to a natural experiment, and examine the impact of a sharp real appreciation of the Norwegian Krone in the early 2000s on Norwegian manufacturing firms which differ substantially in their trade orientation. A change in the real exchange rate (RER) affects a firm through three different channels: (i) firm's export sales, (ii) firm's purchases of imported inputs, and (iii) import competition faced in the domestic market. Unlike previous studies, we are able to examine all three channels. Both net exporters and import-competing firms were exposed to increased competition due to the real appreciation. Both groups reacted by shedding labor, but only the first group experienced increasing labor productivity. Partly, the productivity improvements came from measured TFP gains, while capital deepening does not appear to have been affected by the shock.     

Foreign investment,regulation and price volatility in South-east Asian stock markets

This paper examines the extent to which changes in the openness of three South-east Asian Stock Markets to foreign investors impact on the volatility of prices in those markets. Regulatory authorities have been cautious about the opening up of markets to foreign investors, fearing that increased liberalisation may lead to increased price volatility, which, in turn, may have a detrimental effect on the operation of the market and the wider economy. Using an asymmetric GARCH model, it is shown that while greater liberalisation has changed the nature of price volatility in the markets, there has not been a destabilising impact. Rather, asymmetric responses of volatility to news have reduced post-liberalisation, suggesting that informed traders are playing a greater role in the markets, with the impact of noise traders being reduced.     

Excess Risk Premia of Asian Banks

This paper develops a framework for gauging the risks of emerging market banks by using stock market data. Employing a multifactor asset pricing model that allows for time‐varying risk premia, we find the presence of large excess risk premia on Asian bank stocks, especially in those markets affected by the Asian financial crisis. We find that the excess risk premia appear to be negatively related to the degree of economic freedom of a country but positively related to its corruption level. Thus, our findings are consistent with the view that crony capitalism in Asia may have distorted the market mechanism or the systematic risk exposure of banks. This suggests that the excess risk premium provides useful information on risk exposure for opaque banking systems where quality accounting information is not available.     

Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets

In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa's volatile currencies drive equity risk premia. We use the SDF framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong evidence of conditional, time-varying currency risk premia in equity returns. Currency risk is also perceived by international investors as important in informing the equities pricing kernel. Interestingly, we find evidence that international investors are concerned about Africa's small size equity markets and build the impact of anticipated low trading into their pricing calculus.     

International Trade Agreements and International Migration

Despite large potential economic gains, bilateral and multilateral negotiations focusing on liberalisation of migration have not shared the high profile of international trade negotiations and agreements. Migration and trade have been traditionally viewed rather separately and the relevance of the many, and complex, interdependencies has been given remarkably little attention in the literature to date. In this article, we focus on the two‐way interaction between international migration and agreements designed to enhance cross‐border trade and investment. Liberalisation of international trade in services and in the movement of people potentially offers much greater economic gains than liberalisation of remaining barriers to goods trade. However, progress within multilateral frameworks is fraught with difficulty. The World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) has yielded little real progress so far and negotiations within more flexible unilateral and bilateral frameworks are likely to be more successful in liberalising the movement of labour. We discuss a range of specific examples, focusing particularly on the interesting case of New Zealand. We find that trade agreements are increasingly including agreements on migration, though typically favouring temporary migration and involving numerically modest quotas. We conclude that migration regulatory frameworks are likely to be further and more strongly linked to trade and investment agreements in the future, particularly given changing economic and demographic forces. The primary focus of migration policies may nonetheless remain different from that of trade policies. While further migration liberalisation is likely to be through bilateral and regional agreements, it will be important to try to lock in the gains of such agreements, while simultaneously working to consolidating these in a way that will help to facilitate future multilateral agreement.     

Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper examines whether Asian emerging stock markets (India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) have become integrated into world capital markets since their official liberalization dates by estimating and testing a dynamic integrated international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean approach. Also examined in this paper is whether there are pure contagion effects between stock and foreign exchange markets for each Asian country during the 1997 Asian crisis. The empirical results show that first, both currency and world market risks are priced and time-varying, suggesting that an international asset pricing model under PPP and constant price of risk might give rise to model misspecification. Second, the stock markets for India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand were segmented from the world capital markets before their liberalization dates, but all six markets have become fully integrated since then. Third, the market liberalization has reduced the cost of capital and price volatility for most of the countries. Finally, as for the contagion effects, strong positive impact of return shocks originating from the domestic stock market to its foreign exchange market during the crisis is found. This dynamic relationship between stock market and foreign exchange market is consistent with stock-oriented exchange rate models.     

Mind the Gender Wage Gap – the Impact of Trade and Competition on Sectoral Wage Differences

This paper examines differences between women’s and men’s wages in 18 selected OECD countries in the period 1970 to 2005. The study is based on 12 manufacturing sector‐ and skill‐specific sets of panel data on the gender wage gap. We apply a system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to the extended version of the conditional gender wage gap convergence equation, controlling for sector concentration and industry‐specific measures of openness using a difference‐in‐difference approach: trade‐affected concentrated sectors versus trade‐affected competitive sectors. The results indicate that: (i) an increase in sector concentration is associated with wage gap growth; (ii) both import and export penetration are associated with a reduction of the high‐skill gender wage gap growth in concentrated industries; (iii) there is evidence of a widening impact of trade on the medium and low‐skill occupational gender wage gap growth in less competitive industries; (iv) institutional regulations of the labour market have an impact on the development of the gender wage gap: for highly‐skilled labour an increase in labour market regulation raises the growth of the gender wage gap, while for medium‐ and low‐skilled workers, it lowers it.