基于有限理性条件下的中国证券市场投资者决策行为研究

传统的金融理论认为,投资者是理性的,是按照效用最大化来进行的决策,然而从证券市场的实际情况来看,投资者的决策行为并不是完全理性而是有限理性的。在中国证券市场上,由于市场发展快速,制度不够完善,投资者的有限理性决策行为表现更为突出,这导致了证券市场的波动,增加了市场的风险。因此,有必要对投资者的有限理性决策行为进行深入研究,从而了解投资者的决策偏差及原因,引导投资者理性投资,促进中国证券市场的健康发展。     

机构投资者羊群效应的理性分析

本文基于西蒙的有限理性理论,从有限理性的范畴中,着重从中国证券市场的机构投资者的投资决策心理入手,分析讨论中国市场上的羊群效应。最终得出,机构投资者的羊群效应是偏理性的。     

证券投资者与金融消费者的关系——以《证券法》修改为背景

证券市场的飞速发展呼唤《证券法》的完善以应对市场不断出现的新问题。证券法是证券市场参与者保护法,证券市场参与者法律属性的界定是证券法保护证券市场参与者的逻辑起点。非专业个人投资者属于金融消费者,证券市场参与者既有证券投资者属性又有金融消费者属性,《证券法》修改应引入金融消费者保护理念,区分具有金融消费者属性的投资者和其他证券投资者,在对证券投资者进行一般性保护的基础上,针对具有金融消费者属性的投资者进行特殊的制度设计以更有效地实现证券法保护证券市场参与者的功能。     

法律视角下的中小股东保护

投资者是证券市场的基石,投资者权益是投资者的“天赋人权”,投资者的信心是证券市场稳定和繁荣的根本支柱。但证券市场上存在的信息不对称,上市公司管理者在“委托-代理”模式下的“有限理性”和“机会主义”,大股东在证券市场博弈中的优势地位,常使二者单独或联合利用其控     

试谈我国证券市场的规范与发展

试谈我国证券市场的规范与发展邱国龙在规范中发展，在发展中规范，是我国股票市场不断走向成熟的根本保证。在股票市场规范化发展的过程中，首先需要进行行为规范的是股票市场的主体即券商、机构投资者以及广大股民等市场参与者，市场参与者自身要树立理性投资理念，自我...     

融资融券业务的风险及对策研究——基于投资者的角度

融资融券业务因为杠杆机制和卖空机制,对证券市场产生了非常大的影响,其在提高市场流动性的同时也增加了证券市场的风险。投资者作为融资融券市场的重要参与者,其风险的控制就显得尤为重要。本文首先提出了投资者参与融资融券所面临的风险,然后针对融资融券中投资者的风险控制提出了相关对策,以期对当前融资融券市场中的业务风险控制起到一定的借鉴作用。     

机构投资者噪声交易行为的理论分析

根据对机构投资者噪声交易行为的理论分析,本文提出由于证券市场在本质上是一个信息市场,天然具有噪声交易动机和行为能力的机构投资者利用个人投资者的认识心理、情绪和投资行为偏差与证券市场制度结构,策略性地实施噪声交易行为,以此加剧信息的不对称性,进而在最大程度上发挥其比较优势、获取超额收益,噪声交易因此成为机构投资者投资行为的本质特征。机构投资者噪声交易行为属于有限理性的主动性噪声交易,噪声交易者风险的分布具有阶段性特征,在机构投资者可控制的范围之内。     

证券公司风险评估及指标预警系统设计

证券公司风险种类 证券市场是一个高风险市场，证券公司作为这个市场的主要参与者，其一切活动都面临着风险。证券公司等金融机构与其他公司有着根本的区别，就是风险管理是证券公司等金融机构成功所需要的核心技能，风险管理是证券公司成功的关键。……     

商业银行操作风险的有限理性理论分析

近年来,国际国内银行业因操作风险管理不慎而导致的风险日益加剧并且损失增加,这引起了银行业界和学术界的关注,对与操作风险管理的研究也越来越多。要提高操作风险的管理水平,分析操作风险成因是一个关键。本文通过对诺贝尔经济学奖获得者西蒙教授提出的有限理性理论的研究,提出了从有限理性理论的角度来分析商业银行操作风险形成机理的新视角。     

媒体对有限理性投资者投资行为的影响研究

新闻媒体对证券市场的影响越来越大,它会通过影响投资者的行为而影响资产价格。由于我国证券市场并不是强有效市场,加之投资者自身的缺陷,比如投资者有限理性及投资者心理等因素,媒体就可能影响投资者的投资行为。新闻的准确性及来源媒体的权威性、新闻的发布时段以及媒体报道新闻的频率和持久性都会对投资者的行为产生影响。认识到媒体对投资者行为的不同影响,有利于投资者更好地把握新闻,进行理性的投资。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…