非洲炼油厂的现状与发展前景

在半个世纪的历史长河中，非洲炼油业从无到有，炼油能力从小到大，炼厂结构从简单型到综合型；为了实现汽油无铅化，遵循欧洲标准，炼厂就得升级改造；若以原油形式出口改为油品形式出口，炼厂就得扩能；欲满足未来油品市场的潜在需求，非洲就得新建炼厂。因此，非洲炼油业面临的是挑战，带来的是机遇。     

我国化工行业上市公司企业竞争力监测与分析

企业竞争力特别是对于企业监测目前是各界所关注的问题。在此以中国社会科学院工业经济研究所与《中国经营报》共同开发的“中国经营报企业竞争力监测体系（CBCM）”为基础对我国化工行业上市公司的竞争力进行监测。通过对监测的结果分析，得出了化工行业内部效率对竞争力的总贡献与净贡献均较大；产品市场竞争力对竞争力的净贡献最小，而且远小于要素市场及内部效率对竞争力的净贡献。这说明化工行业目前已经初步从外延式的增长转变为了内涵式的增长，企业已经越业越依靠效率提升竞争力。     

从聚丙烯装置的高速建设看未来我国丙烯市场压力

近年来，随着我国国民经济的持续高速发展，我国聚丙烯市场消费量逐年较大幅度上升。为了满足国内对聚丙烯日益增长的需求，聚丙烯业界将投资高度集中在聚丙烯装置建设方面，分别采用独资、合资方式建设聚丙烯装置，国内已掀起新一轮聚丙烯建设高潮。在未来4～5年，我国将有8套世界级规模的聚丙烯装置投产，合计能力达到2．19～2．34Mt／a，聚丙烯装置的高速建设无疑对其原料丙烯的供应带来一定的压力。文章分析了丙烯行业状况，未来丙烯市场可能出现的供不应求趋势以及相应的解决方案。     

乙二醇生产消费现状及发展前景

20世纪90年代以来，由于世界聚酯产品市场消费的急剧增长，世界乙二醇的生产发展迅速。亚洲是世界乙二醇的主要消费地区和贸易区，其消费量占世界乙二醇总消费量的50％以上，但该地区的产量却不能满足实际生产的需要。文章分析了国内外乙二醇供需状况，对需求结构和改扩建形势作了详细介绍，预测了我国乙二醇工业发展前景，并提出了一些发展建议，为我国乙二醇工业今后的发展方向提供了参考。     

The distribution-free newsboy problem: Extensions to the shortage penalty case

In the classical newsboy problem, no cost is assumed if the ordered quantity is less than the demand. However, in reality failure to meet demand is always associated with a penalty. The aim of this work is to extend the analysis of the distribution-free newsboy problem to the case when shortage cost is taken into consideration. The analysis is based on the assumption that only the mean and variance of demand are known, but its particular probability distribution is not. A model is presented for determining both an optimal order quantity and a lower bound on the profit under the worst possible distribution of the demand. The following cases are considered: the single product case, the fixed ordering cost case, the random yield case, and the resource-constrained multi-product case.     

对国有石化企业发展物流的再思考

国有石化企业的物流部门具备较好的运输设备,但目前仍处于传统储运业的阶段,无法满足具有国际先进水平石化企业物流的需要.随着石化行业的快速发展,物流量不断增大,各种所有制的石化企业数量也不断增加,国有石化企业可以运用现代物流理论和信息技术,整合原有的采购、运输、仓储等部门,组建第三方物流企业.这样,可降低运作成本,提高效率,不仅满足原石化企业的物流需要,更可满足社会上石化企业的需要,并创造大量利润.在物流信息化中,应重点关注物流运作、客户服务等环节.     

国内外丙酮的生产现状及市场前景

近年来，世界丙酮的生产发展很快。但由于市场需求强劲和原料短缺导致生产受限，全球丙酮市场供应仍较为紧张。我国目前的丙酮产能也同样无法满足国内的需求，每年需要大量进口。通过对全球目前的丙酮生产现状和市场前景进行分析，认为丙酮在我国仍有较好的发展前景。但需要注意由于全球丙酮生产能力增长过快而出现的市场竞争。我国丙酮工业发展要降低生产成本，提高产品的竞争力，规避市场风险，要积极拓宽丙酮新的应用领域，以确保我国丙酮行业健康有序地发展。     

乙烯装置技术经济分析与建议

根据对国内外乙烯供需状况的分析，预测了2010年世界乙烯生产能力和产量增长情况，并介绍了2005年前我国乙烯装置扩能改造和新建乙烯装置及其配套装置的情况。对裂解原料结构、装置的运行周期和能耗及其对乙烯生产成本的影响进行了分析。并提出了发展我国乙烯工业的建议。     

乙酸市场现状及发展

2000年全球乙酸的生产能力为8620kt/a，我国也达到了900kt/a规模，约占全球总生产能力的10%，超过了日本，但我国的乙酸装置普遍存在着规模小，工艺路线落后的问题，有相当多的装置还在使用乙醇法和乙炔法工艺路线，成本高，污染严重，市场竞争力不强，目前，我国乙酸的供需大体上达到平衡，但由于进口乙酸的冲击，市场竞争日趋激烈，应加快乙酸工艺的结构调整，以提高整个行业的竞争能力。     

醇铵硫液剂脱硫技术的研究与应用

我国燃煤电厂传统脱硫技术(如石灰石湿法脱硫)存在投运成本高、施工周期长、对场地要求高等问题,难以满足不同锅炉,尤其是中小型锅炉的脱硫要求。文章介绍了一种紧凑型高效液剂脱硫技术及其在中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司热电事业部5A炉进行的应用试验情况。结果表明,该脱硫技术可使装置的脱硫效率达到95%,并能弥补传统脱硫技术的不足,尤其适用于场地紧缺的中小型锅炉,也可用作辅助或应急用脱硫装置,具有广阔的工业应用前景。     

Markup pricing in petroleum refining:: A multiproduct framework

This paper describes a structural model of markup pricing under joint production with quasi-fixed inputs of capital, labor, and inventories. The price–cost markups are functions of the inverse price elasticity of demand, an industry average conjectural variation elasticity, and the inventory to sales ratio. Our empirical findings suggest significant markups over marginal cost that differ considerably by product. This study also estimates the elasticities of markups with respect to supply and demand shocks.     

Elektroautos in einer von erneuerbaren Energien geprägten Energiewirtschaft

The German Federal Government wants to establish Germany as a leading market for electric mobility. Potential environmental benefits and changes in the economic framework conditions of the energy sector are described in this paper. In order to quantify the electricity split which is actually used for charging electric vehicles, two economic models for the energy sector, a model for the market penetration of electric vehicles, a vehicle model and an LCA model are brought together. Based on an assumed dynamic increase of electric vehicles to 12 million in 2030, an additional electricity demand of about 18 TWh is calculated. If the vehicles are charged directly after their last daily trip, the peak load increases by 12%—despite the small increase in electricity demand. First model calculations for the development of the European power generation system show that the direct impact on the construction of new power plants remains low even until 2030. An impact of electric mobility on CO₂ certificate prices can only be seen from 2025 onwards and is limited to an increase in certificate prices by a maximum of 8 % in 2030. An optimisation is possible with intelligent charging strategies: The peak load without demand side management can be reduced by 5 GW and about 600 GWh of additional wind energy can used which would otherwise have been throttled due to feed-in management—about 3.5 % of the total electricity demand of electric vehicles. On the other hand, demand side management leads to more coal power plants instead of gas power plants being used to meet the additional electricity demand. If additional renewable sources are installed along with demand side management, the electricity for electric vehicles is almost carbon free. This is also reflected in the life cycle balance of electric vehicles which also includes vehicle and battery production: With today’s average electricity split in Germany, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles are about comparable to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. However, the electricity split in 2030 or the use of additional renewable energy sources lead to a significant advantage in the greenhouse gas balance.     

Case Study: Solving a Rental Fleet Sizing Model with a Large Time–Space Network

This article addresses a rental fleet sizing problem (RFS) in the context of the truck rental industry, subject to uncertain customer travel time and nonstationary customer demand that is dependent on geographical location, time, and the economic cycle of the industry. We integrate tactical (asset purchases and sales) and operational (empty truck movement and vehicle assignment) decisions, with the explicit incorporation of an asset age factor, to achieve lower cost solutions. Typically, the length of time horizon and number of locations under consideration are quite large, which makes the RFS model computationally challenging to solve. Aggregation procedures are employed for location clustering and end-of-horizon effects are examined through demand scenario-based analyses. For the reduced time–space networks, decision analyses are conducted for the RFS model to provide insights into the truck rental business regarding asset movement decisions and asset procurement/disposal decisions over time and locations.     

Incorporating uncertainty into a supplier selection problem

Supplier selection is an important strategic supply chain design decision. Incorporating uncertainty of demand and supplier capacity into the optimization model results in a robust selection of suppliers. A two-stage stochastic programming (SP) model and a chance-constrained programming (CCP) model are developed to determine a minimal set of suppliers and optimal order quantities with consideration of business volume discounts. Both models include several objectives and strive to balance a small number of suppliers with the risk of not being able to meet demand. The SP model is scenario-based and uses penalty coefficients whereas the CCP model assumes a probability distribution and constrains the probability of not meeting demand. Both formulations improve on a deterministic mixed integer linear program and give the decision maker a more complete picture of tradeoffs between cost, system reliability and other factors. We present Pareto-optimal solutions for a sample problem to demonstrate the benefits of the SP and CCP models. In order to describe the tradeoffs between costs and risks in an analytical form, we use multi-parametric programming techniques to more completely analyze the alternative Pareto-optimal supplier selection solutions in the CCP model. This analysis gives insights into the robustness of the solutions with respect to number of suppliers, costs and probability of not meeting demand.     

Are Losers Picked? An Empirical Analysis of Capacity Divestment and Production Reallocation in the Japanese Cement Industry

As demand in an industry shrinks, pressure for the reduction of capacity arises. A key issue is whether plants which, from an efficiency perspective, should reduce output in fact do so. Focusing on the Japanese cement industry, we examine whether less efficient plants reduce capacity. We find that less efficient firms are not more likely to reduce capacity than more efficient firms; however, less efficient plants within a multi‐plant firm are more likely to reduce capacity than more efficient plants. In addition, we find that this divestment pattern has led to a substantial drop in industry‐wide allocative efficiency.     

经济中介的代理成本与我国经济中介业的发展

作为一种经济组织，经济中介机构在降低市场经济活动交易成本的同时也会产生代理成本。我国经济中介业发展历史短，存在无序竞争和规范化程度低等问题，由此产生的代理成本严重影响了对经济中介服务的市场需求，制约了经济中介业的发展。本文从分析经济中介组织的代理成本入手，指出推动经济中介业快速必须通过准入标准、建立信用评价体系和加大惩罚力度，从而有效降低经济中介的代理成本。     

低碳经济下考虑满意度的冷链路径优化

为了在降低冷链物流配送成本的同时,保证顾客满意度和碳排放成本达到企业的要求。充分考虑客户软时间窗约束、行驶距离、生鲜变质等多重影响因素,构建考虑顾客满意度的低碳冷链物流路径优化模型,结合固定成本、碳排放成本、损坏成本、冷藏成本、运输成本以及时间窗成本,采用遗传算法进行求解,并应用实例加以验证。结果表明,相对于不考虑满意度的路径优化,以总成本为目标的冷链物流路径优化,能够平均减少23 km的运输距离和降低2.72%的配送总成本;同时结果也更优于以低碳为目标的求解。模型在提高顾客满意度的同时,实现了降低配送总成本以及减少物流活动中碳排放的目标。因此,研究为物流运输企业提高服务质量和经济效益提供了有效的技术路线,结果可为冷链物流行业的服务能力提升以及低碳转型发展提供启示,为物流行业的可持续发展研究提供理论参考。     

唐山钢铁产业群发展前景分析

成本是决定钢铁企业生存与发展的关键因素。唐山地区发展钢铁工业有得天独厚的区位和资源优势，出现在这一地区的钢铁产业群是企业追求成本优势的必然产物。随着进口矿比重不断增加，地方政府应以降低物流成本，减少耕地占用，合理使用淡水资源，改善中心城市居住环境等原则为指导，积极引导钢铁产业群向沿海转移，并与港口建设统筹规划，全面提升产业群的国际竞争力。唐山钢铁产业群的发展对传统的均衡区域经济布局理论提出了挑战。     

Competition under capacitated dynamic lot-sizing with capacity acquisition

Lot-sizing and capacity planning are important supply chain decisions, and competition and cooperation affect the performance of these decisions. In this paper, we look into the dynamic lot-sizing and resource competition problem of an industry consisting of multiple firms. A capacity competition model combining the complexity of time-varying demand with cost functions and economies of scale arising from dynamic lot-sizing costs is developed. Each firm can replenish inventory at the beginning of each period in a finite planning horizon. Fixed as well as variable production costs incur for each production setup, along with inventory carrying costs. The individual production lots of each firm are limited by a constant capacity restriction, which is purchased up front for the planning horizon. The capacity can be purchased from a spot market, and the capacity acquisition cost fluctuates with the total capacity demand of all the competing firms. We solve the competition model and establish the existence of a capacity equilibrium over the firms and the associated optimal dynamic lot-sizing plan for each firm under mild conditions.     

从电动自行车行业谈新兴行业发展中的难题

新兴行业中的企业往往面临着诸如产品质量不稳定、缺乏统一的行业标准、缺乏完善的售后服务、政府部门的限制等难题。电动自行车作为近年来中国经济发展中的行业新亮点,具有其他交通工具不可替代的优势和广泛的市场需求,但也不可避免地面临同样的困境。只有依靠企业、政府、消费者的正确认识和协作,才能保证电动自行车这一新兴行业走上健康、可持续发展的道路。