Regulated prices and real options

This paper shows how the cash flows received by an unregulated firm operating in a workably competitive market can be replicated for a regulated firm. The only change to standard regulatory practice is that each time the regulated firm invests, the amount added to its rate base is the product of its capital expenditure and a multiplier, greater than one, that captures the reduction in value of the unregulated firm's growth options that occurs whenever the firm invests. The regulated firm is allowed to earn a rate of return equal to its weighted-average cost of capital, applied to this rate base. Four possible approaches to estimating the size of the multiplier are presented, each based on an established real-options investment model.     

Shareholder Value, Real Options, and Innovation in Technology-Intensive Companies

We show how central concepts from technology and innovation management (TIM), sequential models of the New Product Development (NPD) process, and the valuation technique of 'real options' can be linked, to provide a valuation framework that can be used in the value-based management of technology-intensive companies.
We introduce a binomial option tree which incorporates the flexibility and the risks inherent in the NPD process into its evaluation in a theoretically correct way and is at the same time simple and easy to use. In this way, our options-based approach ties the valuation of hitech and life sciences companies closer to the underlying growth opportunities and incorporates much of the 'gut feel' of experienced industry practitioners into the valuation. As a consequence, the approach leads to more defensible valuations and allows powerful insights for the value-based management of technology-intensive companies.
In two numerical examples we demonstrate that the theoretically more sound option tree approach in practice can produce different valuations and lead to different decisions than a simple 'discounted cash flow (DCF) tree' approach and has therefore potential to improve managerial decision making. Finally, we describe a real life situation where our options-based approach was successfully applied in the valuation for the initial public offering of a biotech company.     

Uncertainty and the market valuation of R&D within a real options logic

The aim of this study is to provide new theoretical insights and empirical evidence on the effect of market and technological uncertainty on the market valuation of a firm's R&D capital. A set of hypotheses is developed adopting a real options logic and tested on a panel dataset of 290 manufacturing firms traded in the UK. Consistently with our theoretical model, we show that market and technological uncertainty have distinct effects on the valuation of R&D investments. The results have several important implications for resource allocation to R&D under uncertainty, which we discuss in the concluding section. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficient assignment mechanisms for liquidity-constrained agents

We study alternative methods of assigning scarce resources to individuals who may be liquidity-constrained. Selling the resources via auctions is increasingly popular, but that method may produce an inefficient allocation when agents are liquidity constrained. A simple non-market scheme such as random assignment does better, if resale is allowed, since individuals with a high valuation but low liquidity are more likely to be assigned initially, and recipients with low valuations will resell to those with high valuations. Similarly, a need-based assignment scheme favoring those with low liquidity enhances welfare. Lotteries with entry fees could also be desirable. The optimal mechanism displays features of the non-market schemes such as in-kind and cash subsidies.     

A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHY NPV UNDERVALUES MANAGERIAL FLEXIBILITY

The Real Options paradigm addresses the valuation of managerial flexibility in capital budgeting. Despite the great strides achieved by researchers in this field, many financial analysts have chosen not to adopt this new paradigm due to a lack of comfort with the approach and the mathematical complexity of the valuation models. This article shows how some projects with real options can be valued using simple and familiar tools-discounting expected cash flows after adjusting the discount rate. Unless the discount rate is adjusted to account for the impact of real options on risk, a traditional net present value (NPV) analysis misses the value of flexibility. By narrowing the gulf between Real Options analysis and more familiar tools, the weighted average discount rate (WADR) approach introduced in this paper may help novices better understand die Real Options paradigm, which subsequently may gain the wider acceptance it deserves. Though the WADR approach is practical only for simple real options, comfort with the approach may encourage analysts to pursue more advanced and robust real option valuation techniques for more complex applications.     

CEO career horizon,corporate governance,and real options: The role of economic short‐termism

Research Summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short‐termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs’ career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long‐term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs’ career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self‐seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial Summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking‐behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms’ real options, which should lower the investments in the firms’ real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long‐term incentives and institutional investors.     

Managing liquidity in research‐intensive firms: signaling and cash flow effects of patents and alliance activities

The effective holding and management of liquid assets is critical to success in research‐intensive industries. The primary output of invention is new knowledge. However, because of its ‘sticky’ characteristics, knowledge may not easily diffuse to external shareholders, leading to knowledge asymmetries between managers/employees and external suppliers of capital. Many valuable R&D projects may thus fail to attract external financing, limiting a firm's ability to invest in R&D. In this study, we examine how the cash flow and signaling properties of a firm's patents and certain aspects of its alliance strategy can attenuate such problems. Specifically, we suggest that a firm's R&D investments positively predict the level of its liquid asset holdings. This is due to the fact that invention‐induced knowledge asymmetries increase the firm's cost of accessing external liquid capital. However, holding cash entails opportunity costs. In this regard, we also find that patent production and certain alliance activities provide important signaling mechanisms, which reduce knowledge asymmetries between the firm and capital markets, and consequently lower the firm's need to hold liquid assets. Empirical tests were conducted using a sample of 108 U.S‐based biotechnology firms. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spectrum value

Radio spectrum is a scarce resource; understanding its economic value is one piece of information needed to manage it efficiently. Estimating the value of radio spectrum, however, creates significant challenges not found in valuing some other assets. Spectrum is somewhat of a special case; market transactions provide a basis for valuation, but almost always require significant adjustments. Some adjustments are best made using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis or econometric evidence. A review of past work on spectrum valuations suggests that focusing on a single valuation technique leaves critical information about spectrum value unused.     

Valuation of Learning Options in Software Development Under Private and Market Risk

Commercial software development is an inherently uncertain activity. Private risk is high, schedule and cost overruns are common, and market success is elusive. Such circumstances call for a disciplined project evaluation approach. This paper addresses the use of market and earned value management data in assessing the economic value of commercial software development projects that are simultaneously subject to schedule, development cost, and market risk. The assessment is based on real options analysis, a financial valuation technique that can tackle dynamic investment decisions under uncertainty. The paper demonstrates the application of real options analysis to a development scenario that consists of two consecutive stages: a mandatory prototyping stage and an optional full-development stage. The full-development stage is undertaken only if the prototype is successful and the market outlook is sufficiently positive at the end of the prototyping stage, thus giving the full-development stage the flavor of an option. The project's staged design increases its value. Real options analyses capture the extra value due to optionality.     

Investitionsanreize unter RPI-X-Regulierung und die angemessene Höhe von Kostendurchreichungen

In the classic view, the fundamental decision between a rate-of-return and price-cap regime depends upon the aim of regulatory action: a rate-of-return is considered to more likely induce infrastructure investment while a price-cap regime is expected to increase managerial effort in reducing costs. While an asset-based regulation may lead to the unwanted Averch-Johnson effect, efficiency-oriented regulation such as RPI-X may decrease the company’s incentive to invest. To avoid this behaviour, RPI-X-regimes do often exempt certain costs from regulation, e.g. by allowing for pass-throughs for capital expenditures. Starting with the finding that efficiency-based regulation may lead to postponement or abandonment of investment projects in a real options based model, a fair rate of capital cost pass through is derived to mitigate the negative effects on investment projects. This ‘regulation-adjusted’ cost-pass-through depends on the regulatory X the regulator imposes on the regulated industry. Given the valuation of the investment project and the efficiency-value, a cost-pass-through can be calculated which is less or equal than the risk free interest rate as long as the pass-through itself is risk-free.     

How do country‐level governance characteristics impact the relationship between R&D and firm value?

This article addresses the question of how country‐level governance characteristics moderate the market valuation of research and development (R&D). Using a valuation model and panel data from companies in the European Union, United States, and Japan, we find that effective corporate governance allows the market to better assess a firm's R&D investments. This finding is the conjunction with the effect of the legal system, the financial system, and mechanisms of control. First, as effectiveness of investor protection increases, the market valuation of R&D projects also increases. Second, more developed financial systems do a better job assessing R&D. Third, effective control mechanisms reinforce the positive effect of R&D on a firm's market value. In sum, our findings shed light on how policymakers can increase the benefits from firms' R&D spending and thus foster economic growth and social welfare using these country‐level governance characteristics.     

Project valuation in the pharmaceutical industry: a comparison of least‐squares Monte Carlo real option valuation and conventional approaches

Least‐squares Monte Carlo simulation (LSM) is a promising new technique for valuing real options that has received little or no attention in the pharmaceutical industry. This study demonstrates that LSM can handle complex valuation situations with multiple uncertainties and compounded American‐type options. The limited application of real option valuation (ROV) in the pharmaceutical industry is remarkable, given the importance of accurate project valuation in an industry that requires large investments in high‐risk projects with long pay‐back periods, which is furthermore suffering from ever‐increasing development costs and shrinking profit margins. The LSM model developed in this study is constructed as an extension of a discounted cash flow model that should be familiar to economists active in the pharmaceutical industry. A number of pharmaceutical projects have been evaluated using LSM ROV, binominal real option valuation and expected net present value techniques. The different results yielded by these methods are explained in terms of differences in risking assumptions and ability to capture the value of flexibility. The analysis provides a framework to introduce the basic concepts of real option pricing to a non‐specialist audience. The LSM model illustrates the potential for real‐life commercial assessment as the versatility of the technique allows for an easy customisation to specific business problems.     

2006 IIE-EED Business Meeting Minutes

The duration measure of weighted average life has been applied in the capital budgeting literature as a measure of project liquidity. Duration is superior to payback methods because it considers both the timing and present value of the entire cash flow stream. However, the literature is ambivalent on the choice of discount rate in calculating project duration. For duration to properly serve as a project liquidity measure, the internal rate of return should be used to discount future cash flows. Examples show that using the firm's cost of capital to calculate duration fails to measure the time to recover initial project outlays in present value dollars.     

融资约束抑或过度投资——中国上市企业投资—现金流敏感度的经验证据

本文以中国上市企业为分析样本,通过检验现金持有量对投资—现金流敏感度的影响,考察企业中的融资约束和代理冲突。结果显示,融资约束与过度投资导致企业投资支出与内部现金流密切相关。民营企业、大规模地方国有企业中存在过度投资,所持有的现金具有明显的壕沟效应、进一步提高投资—现金流敏感度。而中、小规模国有企业面临的融资约束比较突出,为了抵御外部融资约束,持有现金充当对冲工具、降低投资—现金流敏感度。     

Analysis of Investment Returns by Computer

This paper concerns itself with providing the means by which a decision-maker may choose among competing projects and arrive at the optimal allocation of the firm's scarce dollar resources. The problem is handled in the mathematical programming framework. The model holds with or without the assumption of capital rationing and permits the incorporation of the effects of growth and of alternative financial mixes on the cost of capital for the firm. When iterated, the model equates marginal revenue to marginal cost, thus yielding the optimal investment level for the firm. Several investment alternatives not considered in the existing literature on the subject are examined, and some novel interpretations of the constraints and results are offered.     

FREE CASH FLOW (FCF), ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED (EVA™), AND NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV):. A RECONCILIATION OF VARIATIONS OF DISCOUNTED-CASH-FLOW (DCF) VALUATION

The paper assists the user of DCF methods by clearly setting forth the relationship of free-cash-flow (FCF) and economic value added (EVA?) concepts to each other and to the more traditional applications of DCF thinking. We follow others in demonstrating the equivalence between EVA and NPV, but our approach is more general in that it links the problems of security valuation, enterprise valuation, and investment project selection. Additionally, our approach relates more directly to use of standard financial accounting information. Beginning with cash budget identity, we show that the discounting of appropriately defined cash flows under the free-cash-flow valuation approach (FCF) is mathematically equivalent to the discounting of appropriately defined economic profits under the EVA? approach. The concept of net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT), found by adding after-tax interest payments to net profit after taxes, is central to both approaches, but there the computational similarities end. The FCF approach focuses on the periodic total cash flows obtained by deducting total net investment and adding net debt issuance to net operating cash flow, whereas the EVA? approach requires defining the periodic total investment in the firm. In a project valuation context, both FCF and EVA? are conceptually equivalent to NPV. Each approach necessitates a myriad of adjustments to the accounting information available for most corporations.     

Cost leadership strategy and experience curves

Investing in cost leadership by rapidly riding down the experience curve is a common way to establish a firm's competitive advantage. Its success depends, in part, on the factors that underlie the experience curve. In this paper we make the distinction between cost declines that occur at any point in time and cost declines that may occur over time. This leads us to consider a revised experience concept in which the dynamic interrelationship between a firm's production rate, cumulative production and unit cost is explicitly considered. We provide a detailed analysis of various scale-learning relationships and their strategic implications for establishing competitive advantage through an investment in cost leadership. We also prove analytically that such investment should take place only in the presence of learning.     

Valuation of projects with minimum revenue guarantees: A Gaussian copula–based simulation approach

This technical note presents a numerical simulation technique to perform valuations of infrastructure projects with minimum revenue guarantees (MRG). It is assumed that the project cash flows—in the absence of the MRG—can be described in a probabilistic fashion by means of a very general multivariate distribution function. Then, the Gaussian copula (a numerical algorithm to generate vectors according to a prespecified probabilistic characterization) is used in combination with the MRG condition to generate a set of plausible cash flow vectors. These vectors form the basis of a Monte Carlo simulation that offers two important advantages: it is easy to implement and it makes no restrictive assumptions regarding the evolution of the cash flows over time. Thus, one can estimate the distribution of a broad set of metrics (net present value, internal rate of return, payback periods, etc.). Additionally, the method does not have any of the typical limitations of real options–based approaches, namely, cash flows that follow a Brownian motion or some specific diffusion process or whose volatility needs to be constant. The usefulness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a simple example.     

How Do Firms Finance Nonprimary Market Investments? Evidence from REITs

This study explores the impact of investment characteristics, mainly investment location relative to the firm's primary market, on financing choices by real estate investment trusts (REITs). Using a large sample of commercial property acquisitions, we show that REITs are 4–8% less likely to use secured (mortgage) debt when acquiring properties in their primary markets than elsewhere. The documented evidence supports a demand‐side story for the relation between investment characteristics and financing. Moreover, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that REITs avoid mortgage financing in their primary markets to preserve operational flexibility in those markets.     

When do firms undertake R&D by investing in new ventures?

We explore the conditions under which firms are likely to pursue equity investment in new ventures as a way to source innovative ideas. We find that firms invest more in new ventures—commonly referred to as ‘corporate venture capital’—in industries with weak intellectual property protection and, to some extent, in industries with high technological ferment and where complementary distribution capability is important. Furthermore, we find that the greater a firm's cash flow and absorptive capacity, the more likely it is to invest. Our results suggest that in Schumpeterian environments incumbents may supplement their innovative efforts by tapping into the knowledge generated by new ventures. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.