A Closed-Form,After-Tax,Net Present Value Solution to the Mortgage Refinancing Decision

Refinancing one's mortgage is often an attractive, wealth-enhancing option for homeowners in a declining mortgage rate environment. In some respects the decision is simple to analyze because future cash flows are relatively easy to define for fixed-rate mortgages. In other respects, however, the decision is nuanced by option pricing and tax considerations. The analysis must first begin with accurate after-tax, net present value solutions for varying potential holding periods. This study improves upon previous studies, which either ignore tax implications or address them iteratively in spreadsheet model solutions, by introducing a closed-form model that incorporates the ever-changing tax shield of the interest portion of each mortgage payment. Further, unlike many previous studies, our model does not assume that the current and replacement mortgages have equal remaining terms.     

ON THE EQUIVALENCE OF NET PRESENT VALUE AND MARKET VALUE ADDED AS MEASURES OF A PROJECT'S ECONOMIC WORTH

The metric Economic Value Added, or EVA, has recently become quite popular for analyzing company balance sheets, determining executive compensation packages and even project selection. The analysis entails comparing net after-tax operating profit against the allocated cost of capital for a given period. This paper shows, in general, that Market Value Added (MVA), which is the present value of a series of EVA values, is economically equivalent to the traditional NPV measure of worth for evaluating an after-tax cash flow profile of a project if the cost of capital is used for discounting. Additionally, insight is provided into the rationale behind EVA analysis through an interpretation of its capital and income allocation procedure for investment projects.     

A Simulation Approach to the Appraisal of Income Producing Real Estate

The income approach to appraising real property has been criticized in at least three general areas: the use of point estimates for input variables and market value, the failure to use an after-tax valuation model, and the ability of a single valuation model to capture the market for a given property. The objectives of this study are the development of an analytical framework and computer model to overcome these criticisms. The computer model is developed using Monte Carlo simulation and allows the appraiser to consider uncertainty, after-tax cash flows and numerous valuation models. The ability of appraisers to generate the necessary inputs and the interpretation of the output from the model are demonstrated using a case study.     

Portfolio Considerations in the Valuation of Real Estate

When a real asset rises in price faster than inflation (as real estate did in the late 1970s) and rises significantly in price over an extended period (as real estate has done for the last decade and one-half), it concerns valuation and investment professionals who fear about it being over-valued. One of the reasons for such price performance may be an increase in demand due to the portfolio characteristics of the asset during the period of time in question. For real estate this means the proportion included in optimal portfolios should be significant and increasing as individual tax rates increase in an environment of increasing average tax rates.
This study uses six tax brackets (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%) and portfolios consisting of three traditional assets (NYSE common stocks, corporate bonds and small stocks) plus three types of real estate (residential, business and farmland) to demonstrate that this is what has transpired in the real estate markets. Optimal portfolio weights are derived for each asset for after-tax portfolios. Real estate in general and residential real estate especially increased as a proportion of the optimal after-tax portfolio as individual tax rates increased. Other studies are used to demonstrate an environment of increasing average tax rates.     

投机性需求、刚性需求与房价上涨的非线性关系——基于空间计量模型的实证研究

本文利用2000~2008年24个省份的季度面板数据,采用空间计量经济模型构建基于当期收入、预期资产收益变动以及利率的住宅价格模型,以资产升值预期和收入变动的视角来研究住宅价格上涨的投机性需求和刚性需求。实证研究结果表明货币政策对房价的影响极为重要;可支配收入对房价的影响次之,资产升值预期对房价的影响与刚性需求相差不大,表明投机性需求已经逐渐成为主导我国住宅价格走势的关键性因素。     

Optimizing capital investments under technological change and deterioration: A case study on MRI machine replacement

ABSTRACT

We study the multiple style and type parallel asset replacement problem (MST-PRES), which determines an optimal policy for keeping or replacing a group of assets that operate in parallel under a limited budget. Operating assets generally suffer from deterioration, which results in high operation and maintenance (O&M) cost and decreased salvage value, and technological improvements make it possible for new assets to operate more efficiently at a lower cost. In order to address these issues, we formulate a multi-objective mixed-integer programming (MIP) model that minimizes fixed and variable costs of purchasing new assets, O&M cost, inventory cost, and penalty cost for unmet demand minus salvage values, while considering technological advances and deterioration as a gain and loss in capacity, respectively. We apply our model to a case study involving two different styles of assets: a full-body magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machine and a smaller extremity magnetic resonance imaging (eMRI) machine. Each has two types: high-field and low-field. We perform computational experiments and analyses using key model parameters and illustrate optimal replacement strategies considering the impact of technological advances and deterioration. Results show that the proposed MIP model provides valuable insights and strategies for companies, decision makers, and government entities on the capital asset management.     

Management motives for takeovers in the petroleum industry

This paper tests the proposition that takeovers involving major petroleum companies are due to poor management performance by the target companies. Among the performance variables used to distinguish firms subject to takeover were the following: the ratio of market value to book value, rate of return, dividend payout ratio, reserve replacement ratio, and finding costs. The results do not indicate that there is a clear cut distinction between the firms that were taken over and those that were not. As a result, the managerial incompetence hypothesis receives no support from this analysis.     

Economic life replacement under improving technology

The economic life (EL) method of asset replacement is analyzed under improving technology that impacts the maintenance cost, new asset cost, and salvage value. In particular, we prove that the asset EL is constant when all these costs decrease with the same rate. If these costs decrease geometrically, then the EL method with a corrected capital recovery factor calculates the optimal asset lifetime over the infinite horizon for arbitrary age-dependent deterioration and salvage value. In a general case, the EL method delivers an optimal replacement decision when the relative rate of technological change is less than 1%. For larger rates, we recommend to minimize the annual cost over two future replacement cycles, which was earlier proposed and implemented by Christer and Scarf, Journal of the Operational Research Society 45, 1994.     

Coopetition-based business models: The case of Amazon.com

Coopetition (collaboration between competing firms) is a phenomenon that has recently captured a great deal of attention due to its increasing relevance to business practice. However, current research on coopetition is still short on explaining how the potential advantages of coopetition can be realized over time as part of an individual firm's business model. In order to gain insights into this, we conduct a longitudinal, in-depth case study on the coopetition-based business models of Amazon.com. We find evidence of three distinct coopetition-based business models: (1) Amazon Marketplace, (2) Amazon Services and Web Services, and (3) the collaboration between Apple and Amazon on digital text platforms. We conclude by forwarding several propositions on how value can be created and captured by involving competitors in a firm's business model. As a whole, the results contribute to the current understanding of how firms – as well as their stakeholders – can better benefit from coopetition.     

DETERMINATION OF ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED FOR A PROPOSED INVESTMENT IN NEW MANUFACTURING

This paper discusses a measure for estimating the wealth creation potential of capital investments in manufacturing. The measure, called “Economic Value Added,” has recently become popular in the United States and can be derived from an after-tax analysis of cash flows generated by a capital investment. A proposed investment in manufacturing capacity is analyzed to illustrate the after-tax cash flow calculations required to determine its EVA potential.     

TECHNICAL NOTE A NOTE ON THE COST OF OWNERSHIP,CAPITAL RECOVERY AND DEPRECIATION

This paper develops an after-tax version of the classical capital recovery equation and demonstrates its value as a screening device and as an expository tool to convey conceptual understanding of the cost of ownership, capital recovery and depreciation.     

Riskiness of Real Estate Development: A Perspective from Urban Economics and Option Value Theory

In this article, we define a new construct for urban economic and investment analysis, which revisits the conventional wisdom that investment in real estate development is riskier than investment in stabilized property assets. This new construct, referred as a “development asset value index” (DAVI), is a value index for newly developed properties (only) in a given geographical property market. It tracks longitudinal changes in the highest and best use (HBU) value of locations, and it reveals developer and landowner behavior taking advantage of the optionality inherent in land ownership. In particular, the DAVI reflects developers' use of flexibility in the exercise of the call option to (re)develop the property to any legal use and density. We empirically estimate a DAVI for commercial property (i.e., central locations) and compare it with a corresponding traditional transaction‐price‐based property asset price index (PAPI) corrected for depreciation. We believe that the difference primarily reflects the realized value of flexibility in land development. We find that the DAVIs display greater value growth and are smoother over time and less cyclical than their corresponding PAPIs for the same locations. This suggests that developers successfully use flexibility, and that development may be riskier than stabilized property investment due primarily only to leverage effects (construction costs). Practical implications are also discussed.     

Commercial Mortgage Pricing with Unobservable Borrower Default Costs

This paper develops a pricing model for commercial real estate mortgage debt that recognizes the influence of default transaction costs on the borrower's default decision. These costs are heterogeneous across borrowers and largely un-observable to the lender/investor at the time of origination or loan purchase. A recognition of these unobservable costs can explain why borrower default decisions may differ from those predicted by "ruthless" mortgage-default pricing models. We address the determinants of default choice and timing by replacing sharp default boundaries found in the ruthless models with "fuzzy" boundaries that account for investor uncertainty with respect to evaluating borrower default decisions. To implement our model, we estimate probabilities of default as a junction of time and net equity in the property. Then, given that default occurs, loss severities are modeled based on expected property value recovery net of foreclosure costs and time until the asset is actually sold. Under reasonable parameter value choices, resulting Monte Carlo simulations produce numerical mortgage price estimates as well as component default frequency and severity levels that realistically reflect default premiums and loss levels observed in the marketplace.     

A Review of: “MODELING THE SUPPLY CHAIN” BY JEREMY R SHAPIRO Duxbury Press,Pacific Grove,California, 2001, xv + 586 pp. ISBN 0-534-37363-1. List: $71.95.

In this paper, we measure economic profit in an inflationary environment. Inflation adjusted economic profit requires two principal alterations to Economic Value Added (EVA[rgrave]). First, because inflation increases the replacement cost of non-current assets above book value, one must make a downward adjustment to EVA[rgrave] to correctly measure economic profit. Second, we add a term to EVA[rgrave] to represent a manager's ability to increase product price as costs increase. This adjustment is positive because this ability adds value to a firm. When a firm's assets are largely current, the first adjustment is not necessary, and therefore, the second dominates. In this case, EVA[rgrave] underestimates economic profit. Economic profit remains positive when a firm's rate of return on invested capital, after tax and after depreciation, is less than the weighted average cost of capital by as much as the rate of inflation. Even when inflation is modest, unadjusted EVA[rgrave] has the potential to seriously misrepresent the operating performance of a firm.     

CASE STUDY: BUS FLEET REPLACEMENT

Parallel replacement analysis is concerned with determining minimum cost replacement schedules for a group of assets that are economically interdependent and operate in parallel. That is, keep and replace decisions are required for each asset among a group of assets over a specified horizon. The assets are economically linked through economies of scale or budgeting constraints. One application of parallel replacement analysis is fleet replacement. We recently studied the operations, including fleet replacement policies, for a city transit bus operator in Europe. Key factors in their replacement decisions included the ability to choose from multiple manufacturers, purchase price, and government regulations. We explore these and other factors, by solving a heterogeneous replacement problem with fixed costs, budgeting constraints, and demand constraints. Through extensive sensitivity analysis we analyze the impact of various parameters on decisions, in terms of the choice of replacement assets, as well as the optimal time to retain assets. Additionally, we provide motivation for future research in this application area, which is important for many cities.     

Relocation Opportunities and Mortgage Default

This paper presents a theoretical model of residential mortgage default when borrowers face beneficial as well as costly relocation opportunities. It amplifies and extends previous work by providing explicit conditions leading to default. The model also establishes when a borrower's relocation decision and default decision are dependent and when they are not.
A central result is that there is a range of book equity wherein the decision to default is not determined solely by the current level of equity or the borrower's ability to continue the mortgage payments. Rather, various costs and benefits, both tangible and intangible, enter into the decision. Specific conditions are identified that lead to relocation without default, default and relocation, and no default or relocation. The effects of changes in the variables upon default probability are presented.
Assuming that the borrower does not wish to retain ownership in the property, the model also predicts whether an individual borrower will choose prepayment or default when a relocation is made. The choice depends on the value of the relocation opportunity faced by the borrower, as well as financial variables such as house value, mortgage balance, and transaction costs. This finding suggests that existing empirical analyses of default may have omitted explanatory variables.     

Suffizienzorientierte Geschäftsmodelle am Beispiel von Stromspeichern

Business models are essential tools for understanding and creating the logic of a company’s business including all relevant stakeholders’ activities. Despite the knowledge of the organic-systematic interdependencies from companies with other stakeholders, business models of the energy economy primarily aim to transfer their value propositions via revenue streams into economical value. This article provides solutions for theoretical and practical extensions of business models for energy storaging to ensure they are sustainable in the future. Sufficiency-oriented energy storage business models are described as a sustainable framework.     

流动资产投资政策与公司绩效关系研究——基于我国生物医药上市公司的实证分析

营运资本管理包括营运资本投资管理和筹资管理,而营运资本投资管理的重要内容之一是流动资产投资政策的制定。本文在进行流动资产投资政策与公司绩效的理论分析基础上,选取我国医药业上市公司2001～2010年74家面板数据,采用分位数回归检验流动资产投资政策对营运效率不同的公司绩效的影响,结果表明流动资产收入比对企业经营绩效产生负向影响,对营运效率越高的企业影响越显著。在此基础上,对于如何采取合理的流动资产投资政策提出了对策建议。     

The transfer system in European football: A pro-competitive no-poaching agreement?

We assess the proclaimed pro-competitive effects of the “transfer system”, the no-poaching agreement governing the European football (soccer) labor market. A major argument to legitimize this system is that transfer fees, which hiring clubs pay to release players from their current clubs, redistribute revenues from large market to small market clubs. This would strengthen small clubs’ financial clout and their ability to compete in sporting terms. Player transfer fees represent over 10 billion Euros in asset value in the financial statements of the 202 clubs we analyze. Still, small market clubs rarely obtain substantial revenues from the transfer market. The main beneficiaries are clubs around the middle of the market size distribution. A select group of large market clubs makes significant transfer losses, but this does not undo their initial financial advantage. Overall, the transfer system therefore leads to a very minor reduction in revenue inequality.     

Institutional common ownership and firm value: Evidence from real estate investment trusts

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate about whether and how institutional common ownership (ICO) affects firm behavior. Using a sample of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), which provide significant advantages for isolating a monitoring channel, we find a robust and positive relation between ICO and REIT firm value. The positive relation between ICO and firm value is driven mainly by motivated investors and becomes stronger when we construct our ICO measures using blockholdings. Our difference‐in‐differences analysis, using mergers between institutional investors, suggests a causal relation exists between ICO and firm value. After investigating various channels through which ICO could affect firm behavior, we conclude that asset allocation decisions and performance are the most plausible explanations. Our finding that the monitoring associated with ICO aids managers in their portfolio disposition strategies further supports this conclusion. This enhanced monitoring leads to increased property portfolio returns, as well as more geographic diversification.