利率期限结构预期理论及其实证检验——基于我国银行间同业拆借市场利率

利率期限结构在货币政策中扮演着信息指示器的角色.银行间同业拆借利率可被视为货币市场的基准利率,本文对其进行实证,结果显示各种期限利率组合基本上符合预期理论的要求,只有7天与60天的组合未能有效支持该理论.这说明了次贷危机后,为保证中国金融体系安全,中行过多地对银行间同业拆借进行干预,增加了利率的期限风险溢价,导致部分长期同业拆借利率出现过度反应.     

同业拆借利率的单因素利率期限结构模型的广义矩估计

主要针对现代利率期限结构的动态模型进行定量地实证研究,采用了7天期银行间同业拆借利率数据,通过广义矩估计方法估计了8个单因素利率期限结构模型并进行了相应分析.综合看,可得出结论即CIR模型较CKLS模型能更好地解释中国银行间同业拆借市场的利率行为.同时实证结果还显示银行间同业拆借利率的均值回复效应较显著.     

中国同业拆借市场利率期限结构与宏观经济变量关系的实证研究

利率作为经济和金融领域的一个核心变量,影响着各种固定收益证券及其他衍生产品的定价,一直以来都是金融学研究的重点。其中最重要的是对利率期限结构的研究。我们选取了在我国被视为基准利率备选项之一的银行间同业拆借市场利率作为研究对象,运用主成分分析法证明水平、斜度、曲度三个因子分别能够解释我国同业拆借市场利率期限结构特征的95.41%、2.07%、1.15%。同时,通过选取能够较为全面描述我国宏观经济的三类变量,运用VAR模型,发现水平因子主要受到通胀因素的影响,斜度因子主要受到实体经济变量的影响,而曲度因子则主要受到实体经济和货币政策因素的影响。     

我国银行间同业拆借利率期限结构实证研究

由于利率在市场经济中的基准作用,所以对利率期结构期限的研究一直以来都是金融领域的基础问题.上海银行间同业拆借利率(SHIBOR)是我国目前唯一的市场化利率,通过向量自回归模型(VAR)、Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VEC),对上海银行间同业拆借利率进行实证检验,建立了描述其内在动态变化规律和波动趋势的利率期限结构模型.结果表明该模型无论进行短期预测还是长期预测,都具有较高的精度,可以为各商业银行和金融机构及时调整资产负债结构、对利率衍生产品定价和正确控制金融风险提供参考依据.     

我国国债市场利率期限结构预期假说研究

本文采用时间序列对NS模型进行研究,并在此基础上用NS模型检验了中国债券市场的纯预期假说,发现该假说在中国国债市场上具有很高的显著性,这种纯预期假说可以实现对NS模型参数的预测,进而能对利率期限结构进行预测。     

同业拆借利率与宏观经济变量协整关系的实证分析

在我国目前的利率体系中，同业拆借利率经历利率市场化改革的时间最长，市场化程度也最高，已基本具备金融市场基准利率的条件。研究我国同业拆借利率与宏观经济变量的关系，对中央银行的货币政策执行和商业银行的利率风险管理意义重大。文章利用协整检验和向量误差修正模型，考察我国同业拆借利率与社会消费品零售总额、广义货币供给量增长率、企业商品价格指数、金融机构人民币存贷差和上证综合指数的长期均衡与短期波动关系，在此基础上分析影响我国同业拆借利率变动的主要宏观经济因素及其原因。     

盈余管理、债务期限与银行债权保护——来自中国证券市场的经验证据

本文基于中国债权人保护程度较弱的现实,以2000～2007年的上市公司为样本,对银行能否利用债务期限应对企业的盈余管理行为进行了深入研究。本文发现银行无法整体上识别企业的盈余管理以授予其相应的债务期限。本文进一步将银行识别企业盈余管理行为的意愿和技术进行分离而予以单独检验。通过选择明显有舞弊嫌疑的非标准无保留审计意见企业和微利企业以控制住银行的识别技术,发现银行给予非标审计意见企业较严格的债务期限,但没有给予微利企业较严格的债务期限,说明银行有一定的识别意愿。     

利率期限结构、商业银行投资组合与宏观经济波动——基于DSGE的分析框架

将包含同业业务的商业银行投资组合、利润和利率期限结构的局部均衡模型嵌入以家庭、资本投资者、商业银行、中间厂商和最终厂商为经济主体的DSGE模型中,分析商业银行风险错配、货币政策工具和经济增长对利率期限结构的影响。结果表明:经济增长冲击和商业银行的风险错配冲击对我国利率期限结构的影响最大,其次是数量型货币政策和价格型货币政策冲击。     

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure and Time-Varying Risk Premia: a Panel Data Approach

One implication of the expectations hypothesis is that the yield spread should forecast subsequent changes in the long yield. However, regression tests based on this specification strongly reject the expectations hypothesis. One explanation for this rejection is that these tests fail to allow for a time varying risk premium that is correlated with this yield spread, leading to a bias in the estimated regression coefficients. This paper uses panel data in order to testm the expectations hypothesis under the assumption that risk premia are time-varying but driven by a single factor. It is found that while the expectations hypothesis is still rejected, the bias in the estimated coefficient is verysubstantially reduced.     

A Reconciliation of Some Paradoxical Empirical Results on the Expectations Model of the Term Structure

In this paper we attempt to reconcile contradictory empirical results for the expectations model of the term structure which are found when it is tested by a variety of methods based on single-equation and VAR models. Using monthly data for one-month and three-month interest rates, we show that the expectations hypothesis is rejected for the US and UK term structures on the basis of some popular tests. However, tests based on VAR models or on IV regressions of yield spreads on future short rate changes provide no evidence against the expectations model with a random component in the term premium.     

Non-Parametric Regression Models of Deviations from Othogonality in the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure

Regression tests of the expectations theory of the term structure typically reject the null hypothesis of orthogonality between implied forecast errors and the yield spreads. In the statistical literature on the term structure, these rejections are sometimes attributed to time-varying liquidity premia, and Engle et al . (1987) suggest that the ARCH-M model of time-variation in the liquidity premium may be sufficient to account for rejections of the expectations theory. We use non-parametric (kernel) regression to explore the regression test results on a number of data sets, and find some evidence of a persistent deviation from orthogonality for large absolute values of the spread. Incorporating ARCH-in-mean into models of the term premium indicates that this specification does explain significant time variation in liquidity premia, but the effect does not apepar to be sufficient to account for all of the deviations from orthogonality of forecast errors and spreads.     

突破关键环节促进产业结构优化升级

我国当前产业结构矛盾特征及其成因分析(一)当前我国产业结构矛盾特征新世纪以来,我国经济呈现出高速增长的态势和多元而复杂的局面。一方面,我国产业发展的基础、规模、技术水平得到明显提升,经济总量从世界第6位上升到第     

UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Term Structure of Interest Rates*

This study uses a macro‐finance model to examine the ability of the gilt market to predict fluctuations in macroeconomic volatility. The econometric model is a development of the standard ‘square root’ volatility model, but unlike the conventional term structure specification it allows for separate volatility and inflation trends. It finds that although volatility and inflation trends move independently in the short run, they are cointegrated. Bond yields provide useful information about macroeconomic volatility, but a better indicator can be developed by combining this with macroeconomic information.     

A Semiparametric Analysis of the Term Structure of the US Interest Rates*

The short end of the US$ term structure of interest rates is analysed allowing for the possibility of fractional integration and cointegration. This approach permits mean‐reverting dynamics for the data and the existence of a common long run stochastic trend to be maintained simultaneously. We estimate the model for the period 1963–2006 and find it compatible with this structure. The restriction that the data are I(1) and the errors are I(0) is rejected, mainly because the latter still display long memory. This result is consistent with a model of monetary policy in which the Central Bank operates affecting contracts with short term maturity, and the impulses are transmitted to contracts with longer maturities and then to the final goals. However, the transmission of the impulses along the term structure cannot be modelled using the Expectations Hypothesis.     

机构持股、盈余管理与审计收费溢价

本文以2011-2016年在沪深两市上市企业为样本,针对机构持股、盈余管理与审计收费溢价之间的相关性展开研究,并着重分析了机构持股对盈余管理与审计收费溢价之间关系的调节作用,研究发现:机构持股与审计收费溢价显著负相关;盈余管理与审计收费溢价显著正相关;机构持股对盈余管理与审计收费溢价之间的关系具有显著的弱化作用。     

Structural Break,Indivisibilities and Input–Output Analysis

This paper sets up and analyses a model of structural break in the framework of input–output (IO) analysis. The idea of structural break is formalized in terms of an IO model where each commodity can be produced by two alternative technologies; one of which is subjected to technologically specified indivisibility in its level of operation. The analysis of the model consists of suggesting an iterative procedure for computing its solution and developing a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of solutions. Some results have also been derived on the question of uniqueness of a solution.     

非参数利率期限结构模型的理论与实证研究

本文利用核估计方法建立了非参数的利率期限结构模型，实证结果表明短期利率模型的扩散函数和漂移函数都是非线性的，否定了参数模型一先对扩散函数和漂移函数的参数假设。同时建立了债券和利率衍和证券的PDE定价方程。