Credit Risk and the Demand for Agricultural Loans

This paper uses the lender–borrower relationship to provide insight into the impirical estimation of loan demand/contract curves for agricultural loans. Loan demand is shown to be determined partly by lenders'willingness to provide debt. The implicit solution to the loan contract curve in the lender–borrower relationship is derived from the cumulative probability distribution function of loan losses, which is the same measure used as the dependent variable in credit scoring models. Consequently, empirical estimation of loan demand can be obtained from credit scoring models. This paper presents the theory and then provides loan demand estimates and elasticities using Farm Credit Corporation cross-sectional and time-series data. Empirical estimates indicate the possibility of a backward-bending loan demand curve, which may indicate some credit ationing in agriculture.     

加强非保护价粮食收购贷款管理防范和控制信贷风险

随着粮食流通体制市场化改革逐步深入,粮食购销市场格局在发生深刻变化,保护价粮食品种和范围逐年缩小,非保护价粮食的市场份额逐步提高,农发行非保护价粮食收购贷款不断增加,完善和加强非保护价粮食贷款管理成为形势发展的客观要求。农发行自2000年发放非保护价粮食收购贷款,从     

中国农户信贷特征及其影响因素分析

本文通过2001年全国范围内的农户抽样调查资料对农户信贷活动情况以及农户获得信贷的影响因素展开分析。采用统计分析和计量分析的方法得出以下结论：近年来农户信贷服务状况并没有得到明显改善，非正规信贷依然是最主要的来源，正规信贷来源进一步缩小。而影响农户获得信贷资金的因素主要包括：户主年龄、家庭的财产状况、非农就业人数、正规贷款用途以及地区经济条件等。     

Strategic Role of Trade Credit in Chain Coordination for the Traditional Farm Business Enterprises in Punjab,India

Abstract

Rice being a staple cereal, government purchases paddy (unhusked rice) from the primary wholesale markets in the surplus agrarian Punjab State and milled rice is distributed through the public distribution system in rice deficit States. Commission agents (CAs) in the primary wholesale markets that operate on a fixed commission basis constitute a strategic link between farmers and the procurement agencies/millers. To ensure adequate supplies of paddy for their own businesses CAs advance trade credit to the client farmers who need a regular flow of credit (during both the seasons annually that is not always possible to raise from the formal sources) for the purchase of operational inputs, on farm investments and various consumption purposes. So mutual interdependences, hereditary characters of the business enterprises and close proximities have enabled the chain partners to build up close personal relationships in the repeat business transactions. Farmers sell paddy through the preferred CAs during the post-harvest period, and personal relationships play a pivotal role in chain coordination while captive relationships ensure timely payments. For advancing trade credit, CAs' preferred choices are the medium and large sized farmers due to lower risks while the small sized farmers are less preferred because of their weak asset positions and payment uncertainties that increase the operational costs of trade credit. CAs make amicable adjustments to the utmost so that farmers do not shift away from their preferred CAs. CAs do not share any market risk, however, when paddy payments from the government to farmers get delayed they at their personal levels meet the requirements for cash contingencies of the client farmers. Knowledge gained from this study provides managerial and policy insights on the supply chain management mechanisms for the supplies of an essential input and its timely recoveries.     

The Welfare Economics of a Biofuel Tax Credit and the Interaction Effects with Price Contingent Farm Subsidies

A framework is developed to analyze the effects of a biofuel consumer tax exemption and the interaction effects with a price contingent farm subsidy. Ethanol prices rise above the gasoline price by the amount of the tax credit. Corn farmers gain directly while gasoline consumers only gain from any reduction in world oil prices due to the extra ethanol production. Domestic oil producers lose. Historically, the intercept of the ethanol supply curve is above the gasoline price. Hence, part of the tax credit is redundant and represents "rectangular" deadweight costs that dwarf triangular deadweight cost measures of traditional farm subsidies.     

Credit Constraints: Their Existence, Determinants, and Implications for U.S. Farm and Nonfarm Sole Proprietorships

The objective of this study is to determine the effect of credit constraints on production for farm and nonfarm sole proprietorships. A propensity score-matching estimator is employed to provide unbiased estimates of the production impacts of being denied credit. The empirical results demonstrate that the value of production is significantly lower for credit-constrained sole proprietorships. If this drop in the value of production is aggregated to a national level, it constitutes only 3% and 13% of total value of production for farm and nonfarm sole proprietorships, respectively.     

农户信贷需求与农村金融市场非均衡态势的实证分析——基于泰安市农户信贷供求现状的调查

当前我国农村金融市场供求呈现出明显的非均衡态势:一方面,农户对资金的“有效需求”不足;另一方面,农村金融机构对资金的“有效供给”不足。这对矛盾的存在严重制约着整个农村经济社会的发展。本文基于2005年对山东省泰安市农户信贷需求现状的实地调研,剖析了农户信贷需求与农村金融机构信贷供给之间存在的问题,对其产生的原因进行了深入研究,最后提出了探索解决农村金融市场非均衡态势的几点政策性建议。     

玉米生产者经济效益影响因素实证分析——来自三省的农户调查

本文通过对南北三省农户玉米生产的投入和产出情况进行实地调查,比较分析了不同收入等级农户、不同地区农户和不同土地等级玉米生产的成本和收益情况。主要结论有:(1)玉米的生产成本和经济效益与农户的贫富等级有关;(2)玉米的成本和收益与土地的细碎化、土地等级有关;(3)劳动用工量和化肥量是玉米生产的最主要影响因素;(4)人工费用的计量方法将直接影响玉米生产成本和经济效益的核算。     

关于借款费用资本化的三个问题

《企业会计准则--借款费用》中,借款费用资本化的原则、条件及资本化金额是三项主要内容,本文结合《借款费用准则》的学习,谈点自己的体会.     

An Evaluation of Farm Financial Benchmarks and Loan Success/Failure: The Case of the Agricultural Credit Corporation of Saskatchewan

The use of various financial, economic and efficiency indicators in predicting loan successes and failures is common in agricultural lending. It is well known that financial ratios work well only when based on carefully and consistently prepared financial statements and matched against carefully selected and homogenous groups. This study uses a logit analysis to select 20 variables out of a total of 59 candidates, resulting in a 93% prediction rate. While the logit model identifies a number of important relationships, most traditional financial ratios fail to explain loan success; only one financial ratio — the Current Ratio — is significant and is included in the final model. Of the number of possible explanations for the lack of predictive power of the other various ratios, asset valuation is a common measurement problem. Another perhaps more easily addressed problem is inconsistent and nonconformist definitions that plague the Canadian lending industry. Failure to consistently identify accrued interest or to disaggregate loan payments into interest and principal components renders many of the financial ratios based on current of long-term liabilities useless L'utilisation de divers indicateurs financiers, économiques et d'efficacité pour prédire la solvabilite des emprunteurs est courante en matière de crédit agricole. Chacun sait que les ratios financiers ne fonctionnent bien que lorsqu'Us sont basés sur les états financiers soigneusement et régulièrement preparés et confiés à des groupes homogènes choisis avec soin. L'étude a recours à une analyse logit pour extraire, parmi un total de 59, 20 variables qui ont donne un taux de prédiction de 93%. Bien que le modèle logit ait fait apparaitre un certain nombre de relations importantes, la plupart des ratios financiers traditionnels étaient impuissantsà expliquer la solvabilite édes emprunteurs. Un seul ratio, le ratio courant, s'est revile significatifet il a ete inclus dans le modele definitif Parmi les explications du peu de valeur de prediction des autres ratios, l'evaluation des actifs est reconnue comme un problème de mesure général. Un autre problème, peut-être plus facile â corriger, est le manque de cohêrence et de conformité des définitions appliquées au secteur du crédit au Canada. Faute de pouvoir identifier de façon cohérente I'intérêt accumulé ou de pouvoir séparer les remboursements d'emprunt en intérêts et en capital, un bon nombre de ratios financiers basés sur la dette à court ou à long lerme sont sans utilité     

政府主导的农业信贷、财政支农模式的经济效应——基于中国1952-2002年的经验验证

增加农业信贷和财政支农投入是发展中国家促进农业和农村经济发展不可或缺的战略性措施。然而，运用中国1952-2002年的实际数据进行实证分析的结果却显示：中国财政支农资金的增加不仅无助于农业经济的增长和农民收入水平的提高，反而还起到了抑制作用；而农业贷款的增长也并没有成为促进农业经济增长和农民收入水平提高的重要资源要素。在此基础上，本文认为，中国农业和农村经济发展存在资金投入不足和资金配置低效率的双重瓶颈，对农业和农村的投资决非是简单的注入资金的过程。     

欠发达地区农户金融知识对信贷违约的影响——以新疆为例

降低农户信贷违约风险对维护农村金融体系安全和稳定具有重要意义。本文基于2016年新疆地区农户调查数据,实证分析了金融知识对欠发达地区农户信贷违约的影响及其作用机制。研究表明,金融知识对农户信贷违约行为具有显著的负向影响,提高农户金融知识水平有利于降低其信贷违约风险;金融知识发挥作用的主观机制在于提高农户还款意愿,客观机制在于提高农户还款能力;相对于还款能力,金融知识对还款意愿的影响更大。     

The Role of Community and Farm Characteristics in Farm Input Purchasing Patterns

This work uses unique data from three dairy-dependent communities in rural Wisconsin to test established theory and empirical studies that link farm structure to local purchasing patterns. A theoretical model of purchasing choices is developed to derive the demand determinants of local purchasing. This model is tested empirically across eleven major dairy farm inputs using a double-bounded Tobit model that also includes community characteristics. The empirical estimations find little support for a general linkage between farm-level characteristics and local purchasing patterns. The results do suggest that different community characteristics provide some explanations for diverse purchasing patterns.     

环境、农事与耕牛——近代江南地区耕牛的饲育与役用

本文从生态适应性的角度探讨环境、耕牛、人之间的关系。由于受环境的限制,近代江南地区的耕牛数量严重不足。基于此,围绕着耕牛的饲育与役用问题产生了一系列的社会关系与社会过程,受农事节律的影响,这种社会关系与过程又表现出很强的季节性特点：春天是备耕的时节,因而也是耕牛交易的高涨时期,迫于需要,许多农家只好以高利贷的形式赊购耕牛;农忙时分,为保证农业生产的顺利进行,贫穷之家则通过租借等方式以获取牛力投入;农闲时分,为节省饲料等费用,许多农家便把耕牛卖掉。而在这一过程中。小农户表现得尤为明显。     

U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues

A dynamic three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free-market policy, and with pre-FAIR policies. Results suggest that FAIR did not lead to significant increases in long-run price volatility or revenue volatility. The main impact of pre-FAIR, relative to the free-market regime, was to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes. Results also indicate that U.S. grain market volatility in 1995–2000 was due to fundamental market forces and not to FAIR.     

Saying Sayonara to the Farm: Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Farm Exits in Japan

Off‐farm employment opportunities are thought to have an effect on farm exit rates, though evidence on the sign of this effect has been mixed. Examining this issue in the context of Japanese agriculture, we find that farm exits are related to off‐farm income as a share of household income, and more specifically to the nature of off‐farm work. Two econometric models are developed: a hierarchical Bayesian linear model and a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model. Both models perform well in predicting exit rates across the towns and prefectures of Japan.     

加强农村信用社信贷资产管理的探讨

1 信用社信贷资金的现状分析(1)贷款质量低于国家规定的质量标准。我国自1998年起对农村信用社实行资产负债比例管理 ,颁发了《农村信用合作社资产负债比例管理暂行办法》(以下简称“办法”) ,“办法”规定了贷款质量控制指标。鉴于实际情况 ,“办法”中规定农村信用社分年逐步达到规定的指标 ,其中要求呆滞、呆账贷款比例要在5年内达到规定比例。农村信用社贷款质量静态、动态水平与“办法”规定的标准差距很大 ,在“办法”规定的期限内达到其质量标准是很难做到的。贷款质量低的原因是很复杂的。一是经济环境不景气 ,贷款企业占压大量贷款…     

The Role of the Common Agricultural Policy in Enhancing Farm Income: A Dynamic Panel Analysis Accounting for Farm Size in Italy

As a multi-objective policy, the EU Common Agricultural Policy continues to secure significant income support for farmers as one of the nine specific objectives. We estimate the income transfer efficiency of a broad set of pivotal policy measures, focusing on the effects of farm structure on income transfer efficiency. We use dynamic modelling, based on a micro-data panel of Italian farms for the period 2008–2014, allowing for endogeneity, simultaneity bias, and omitted variables. In line with previous studies and economic expectations, we find that decoupled direct payments provide the highest contribution to agricultural incomes, followed by agri-environmental payments and on-farm investment subsidies. Coupled payments have no significant impacts on farmers’ income. Generally, for all analysed Common Agricultural Policy measures, large farms benefit from greater transfer efficiency levels compared with medium and small farms. These differences among instruments and across farms suggest that policy-participation costs may play a pivotal role, together with the economic structure of farms, in determining the income transfer efficiency of CAP policies.     

农户小额信用贷款道德风险的随机监管博弈分析

农户小额信用贷款在解决农户融资难问题上发挥了重要作用。针对农户小额信用贷款高昂的核查成本和严重的信息不对称所导致的道德风险,本文通过构建信用社与农户之间的博弈模型,讨论了农户违约行为引发道德风险和信用社核查行为降低道德风险之间的传导机制。结果表明:信用社选择核查策略的概率临界值与贷款额度、贷款利息和贷款期限存在正向相关性,与惩罚力度存在负向相关性;农户选择违约策略的概率临界值与贷款额度和核查成本存在正向相关性,与惩罚力度存在负向相关性。