Migrant remittances and fertility

This study examines the role of migrants’ remittances in developing countries’ fertility transition. Employing an unbalanced panel of South Asian countries and controlling for various economic and socio-demographic factors, we find that remittances are significantly associated with a lower number of children born to women of childbearing age. This suggests the remittances’ substitution effect to be at play rather than the income effect, and may result from decreased need for children for financing the household’s future needs as well as from better access to healthcare and contraceptive methods available to migrant households. Remittances’ association with fertility appears to be more important than the transfer of fertility norms from migrants’ host countries. The monetary aspects of international migration may therefore be more important for the region’s demographic transition than social remittances.     

Household migration in the Southern Cone: the case of Paraguay

This study of migration from Paraguay to Argentina focuses on urban to urban migration and uses about 1300 interviews collected during September 1983 to May 1984 for constructing a profile of the migrants. Paraguayan migration to Argentina has historical roots. The first flows were in 1936 and 1947 and were due to war. Migrants tended to settle in Formosa and Misiones provinces in the northern region. The second waves that occurred during the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were to Buenos Aires. Most migration during the more recent years was motivated by economics. It is likely that the key factors were push factors in Paraguay. Migration policies in sending and receiving countries are lax. Half of the interviews were conducted among families in Gran Buenos Aires, and half were conducted among families in Asuncion, Paraguay. 33% of migrants in Argentina reported Asuncion as their last residence. Many migrants were from departments bordering on Argentina. Only 222 of the 543 heads of household who had been employed prior to departure reported that farm work had been their employment. Migration is precipitated by both economic and noneconomic factors. Logistic model findings indicate that urban migrant heads of households tended to be younger and less educated than nonmigrants. Migrants tended to be single heads of households with relatively few children. Rural migrants were less likely to be female and were more likely to have a larger family size than urban migrants. Heads of household with fewer continuous years of employment were more likely to migrate. Findings from data at the time of the interview suggest that higher relative wages were a pull force, when age, sex, education, marital status, size of business, and job seniority were controlled for. The recent democratization in Paraquay is like to attract return migrants, if urban employment opportunities are available.     

The effect of rural labor migration on poverty alleviation: a village-level study in China

The construction of the new socialist countryside is being carried out in China nowadays. Although lots of successful experience has been gotten, different problems occur in various regions yet. To analyze the relationships among rural labor migration, poverty alleviation and characteristics of migrants is important in considering the effect of rural labor migration on the construction of the new socialist countryside. Available sampling and typical case study are adopted and 236 questionnaires are collected from[bur villages in northwest GuangxL China, Daxin Lixin, Longhe and Yongchang. We analyze the rural labor migration status, characteristics of migrants, remittance situation and income, household income and the ratio of remittance income to total household income. A bout 2/3 of the households have migrants in surveyed villages. And nearly half of the migration households have only one fam- ily member as migrants in the four villages. The migrants mainly comprise male and the younger, with the education level of junior middte school and higher More than half of the migrants are employed in Guangdong Province. But the characteristics of migrants in Yongchang are more diverse. The rural labor migration in the village is extremely active and extensive. And over 60% of the household with family members as migrants have remittance income. The rate in Yongchang is extremely high (80%). And the income of households with migrants getting remittance income significantly higher than their counterparts. More than half of their income comes from remittance as far as the former kind of household is concerned And in Yongchang, the rate is nearly 80%. The conclusion is that rural labor migration is popular and extensive in lots of villages. And the migration and remittance play an important role in rural household income, especially in some poor villages. For this kind of village, the rural labor migration may be some "compulsory course" in rural development. And the rural labor emigration is an essential way in poverty al-leviation. This is the first step in the construction of the new socialist countryside.     

Uncertainty,inequality and consumption preferences in urban China

In this paper we present an uncertainty–inequality–consumption model and empirically investigate the effect of uncertainty on the consumption behaviors of urban households with varying levels of socio-economic status in China. We observe that the condition of households that suffered from socio-economic inequality with respect to total consumption, educational expenditures, medical expenditures, and durable consumption worsened relative to other households when faced with income uncertainty. Income uncertainty did not affect the housing consumption of households that suffered from socio-economic inequality, but it substantially decreased their ability to consume other durables. As a result of the introduction of the modern enterprise system and the reform of the housing distribution system, households with a member employed in a management position suffer larger shocks of income uncertainty in total consumption, educational expenditures, medical expenditures, and housing consumption relative to household with all members employed in worker positions in 2002. Uncertainty with respect to medical and educational expenditures had more substantial effects on the non-durables consumption of low-income households than that of other households in 2002.     

Living in limbo: Economic and social costs for refugees

Our paper tests the hypothesis that living in limbo could have negative consequences for the socio-economic integration of refugees. We define limbo as a protracted period when asylum seekers are waiting for the decision concerning their permanent refugee status. Relying on the French survey of migrants, France's longitudinal survey of migrants (ELIPA), we measure integration by labour market participation, fluency in French, finding new French friends and studying. To account for the endogeneity of limbo, we instrument it with the administrative backlog. We find that living longer in limbo during the asylum-seeking period slows down future integration of refugees, but results differ with respect to gender and educational attainment. While having lived longer in limbo slows down most aspects of socio-economic integration for refugees with no degree or a high school degree, those with a bachelor's degree do not experience negative effects. Male refugees who had lived longer in limbo have a lower likelihood of being employed and studying in France, while similar females make fewer French friends.     

Rising top-income persistence in Australia: Evidence from income tax data

Using income tax administrative data for Australia, we examine levels and trends in the persistence in top-income group membership, focusing on the top 1 percent. Top-income persistence increased markedly between 1991 and 2018, with most of the increase occurring in the mid-2000s and early 2010s. In the mid- to late-2010s, Australian top-income persistence rates were near the top of the range of tax-data estimates for other countries. We decompose the increase into factors associated with (i) changes in the composition of the top-income group and (ii) increases in persistence rates for specific population subgroups. We find that the rise in top-income persistence is accounted for by changes in subgroup persistence rates, notably for individuals aged 35–64, and especially those aged 55–64. We suggest that these effects are partially related to increases in the effective retirement age over the relevant period.     

Boom in,bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle

The UK experienced a major residential real estate boom–bust cycle from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, accompanied by unprecedented shifts in the owner occupancy rate of young households. Previous empirical analyses have pointed toward income changes and financial deregulation as the likely causes of this episode, with little to say about the differential effects on various age groups. We show that, in a life-cycle model with income heterogeneity and credit constraints, the observed co-movements of housing prices and owner occupancy rates can be explained as an equilibrium response to income and credit market shocks. Our findings suggest that the financial liberalisation of the early 1980s was crucial for the unparalleled increase in the owner occupancy rate of young households during the boom.     

Forecasting household debt with latent transition modelling

Latent transition modelling (LTM) was used to forecast household debt patterns. A model based on three waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) and over 36,000 responses from the biennial panel study of Polish households – Social Diagnosis – provided data for these forecasts. Based on the fact that transitions between latent states are shaped by previous latent states and socio-economic covariates – age of household head, income and number of household members – we were able to demonstrate LTM as a tool to generate aggregate predictions for both medium- and long-term evolution of the household credit market. The declining tendency for household credit participation rates in Poland is expected in the longer term. In particular, the trend should be supported by decline in the proportion of mortgage debtors. The groups of households indebted for the consumption of durables and those seeking credit outside the banking sector are the groups predicted to remain stable or increase in size.     

Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration

We examine natural disasters and long‐run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows from 1960 to 2000. We find no direct effect of long‐run climatic factors on international migration across our entire sample. These results are robust when conditioning on origin‐country characteristics, when considering migrants returning home, and when accounting for the potential endogeneity of migrant networks. Rather, we find evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors operating through wages. We find that epidemics and miscellaneous incidents spur international migration, and there is strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.     

The effects of international remittances on expenditure patterns of the left‐behind households in Sub‐Saharan Africa

This article explores the effects of international remittances on the expenditure patterns of households in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). This article focuses on five countries in SSA, which are some of the destinations that account for the highest receipt of international remittances. We analyze both aggregate and distributional effects of international remittances on expenditure patterns of households. To investigate the distributional effect of international remittances, we adopt the instrumental variable quantile (IV‐quantile) regression framework that allows us to simultaneously address the endogeneity of international remittances and possible heterogeneity in the impact of international remittances on households’ expenditure patterns. We instrument for international remittances by using the economic conditions in migrants’ countries as an instrument for international remittances. Our results show that the receipt of international remittances increases expenditures on food, durables, education, and health. Using the IV‐quantile regression, we find the effects of international remittances on household expenditure on food, durables, education, and health increase across the different expenditure quantiles.     

PRELIMINARY EVIDENCE ON INTERNAL MIGRATION,REMITTANCES, AND TEEN SCHOOLING IN INDIA

We examine correlations between the receipt of remittances from internal migrants and human capital investment in rural areas of India. We employ a propensity score matching approach to account for the selectivity of households into receiving remittances. We find a positive correlation between remittances received from internal migrants and the schooling attendance of teens. The magnitude of the correlation is greater when focusing on low‐caste households, and male schooling attendance in particular becomes more positive and statistically significant. Our findings provide a basis for establishing future research in the areas of migration and social protection in India. (JEL O15, J24, R23)     

Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants

Two prominent features of international labor movements are that the more educated are more likely to emigrate (positive selection) and more educated migrants are more likely to settle in destination countries with high rewards to skill (positive sorting). Using data on emigrant stocks by schooling level and source country in OECD destinations, we find that a simple model of income maximization can account for both phenomena. Results on selection show that migrants for a source-destination pair are more educated relative to non-migrants the larger is the absolute skill-related difference in earnings between the destination country and the source. Results on sorting indicate that the relative stock of more educated migrants in a destination is increasing in the absolute earnings difference between high and low-skilled workers. We use our framework to compare alternative specifications of international migration, estimate the magnitude of migration costs by source-destination pair, and assess the contribution of wage differences to how migrants sort themselves across destination countries.     

Migration and urban poverty and inequality in China

Using data from recent surveys of migrants and local residents in ten cities in 2005, this paper examines how migration influences measurements of urban poverty and inequality in China, and also compares how other indicators of well-being differ for migrants and local residents. Contrary to previous studies that report that the income poverty rate of migrant households is 1.5 times that of local resident households, we find relatively small differences in the poverty rates of migrants and local residents. Although the hourly wages of migrants are much lower than those of local residents, migrant workers work longer hours and have lower dependency ratios and higher labor force participation rates. Including migrants increases somewhat measures of urban income inequality. Significant differences between migrants and local residents are found for non-income welfare indicators such as housing conditions and access to social insurance programs.     

International migration,transfer of norms and home country fertility

This paper examines the relationship between international migration and source country fertility. The impact of international migration on source country fertility may have a number of causes, including a transfer of destination countries' fertility norms. We provide a rigorous test of the diffusion of fertility norms using highly detailed original data on migration. Our results provide evidence of a significant transfer of destination countries' fertility norms from migrants to their country of origin: a 1% decrease (increase) in the fertility norm to which migrants are exposed reduces (raises) home country fertility by about 0.3%. JEL classification: J13, J61, O11     

The tale of two international phenomena: Migration and global imbalances

Following the dynamics of globalization, international migration has increased dramatically since the 1990s. Since migration patterns affect a country’s demographic structure—which is known to have an impact on the current account—migration is likely to explain a significant part of world imbalances. This paper tackles this issue by investigating the role played by international migration in the dynamics of global imbalances. To this end, we rely on an overlapping generations model to derive the theoretical link between international migration and the current account position. Through a series of robust estimates, we empirically investigate this relationship by relying on a large panel of developed and developing countries. Our results point to substantial effects of international migration. Specifically, we show that an increase in migration augments national savings and tends to restore the current account balance in the destination country, while it has opposite impacts in the origin country. These effects are particularly pronounced in developing economies and are attenuated by migrants’ remittances.     

Migration,remittances, and inequality: estimating the net effects of migration on income distribution

"This paper examines the net effects of migration and remittances on income distribution. Potential home earnings of migrants are imputed, as are the earnings of non-migrants in migrant households, in order to construct no-migration counterfactuals to compare with the observed income distribution including remittances. The earnings functions used to impute migrant home earnings are estimated from observations on non-migrants in a selection-corrected estimation framework which incorporates migration choice and labor-force participation decisions. For a sample of households in Bluefields, Nicaragua, migration and remittances increase income inequality when compared with the no-migration counterfactual."     

Does International Migration Promote Industrial Development? Evidence from Africa 1980–2010

This paper examines mainly how international migration affects industrial development in Africa. Using the migration dataset constructed by Brücker, Capuano and Marfouk in 2013, econometric estimations are implemented on a panel of 45 African countries over the period 1980–2010 based on the generalized method of moment estimators. Our results suggest that on average, emigration affects industrial development in Africa positively and significantly during the period of interest. Both low-skilled and medium-skilled emigrants affect more industrial development. The results also reveal that international financial flows, business networks and scientific networks are the channels through which migration affects industrial development.     

Work‐Related Migration and Poverty Reduction in Nepal

Using two rounds of nationally representative household survey data in this study, we measure the impact on poverty in Nepal of local and international migration for work. We apply an instrumental variables approach to deal with nonrandom selection of migrants and simulate various scenarios for the different levels of migration comparing observed and counterfactual household expenditure distribution. Our results indicate that one‐fifth of the poverty reduction in Nepal occurring between 1995 and 2004 can be attributed to higher levels of work‐related migration and remittances sent home. We also show that while the increase in international work‐related migration was the leading cause of this poverty reduction, domestic migration also played an important role. Our findings demonstrate that strategies for economic growth and poverty reduction in Nepal should consider aspects of the dynamics of domestic and international migration.     

Showing off to the new neighbors? Income,socioeconomic status and consumption patterns of internal migrants

This paper analyses incomes and socioeconomic status of internal migrants over time and in comparison to their new neighbors and investigates whether status consumption is a way for newly arrived city dwellers to signal their social standing. Using a novel dataset from the emerging economy of Kazakhstan we find that internal migrants earn an income and status premium for their move. In a comparison to indigenous city dwellers their earnings and household incomes are not significantly different; however, mobile households report a significantly higher subjective socio-economic status. Exploiting expenditure data, we find that recent migrant households gain status from using visible consumption to impress their new neighbors. This signaling might be used as adaptation to the new economic and social environment or to gain access to social capital.     

Migrant networks and foreign direct investment

Although there exists a sizeable literature documenting the importance of ethnic networks for international trade, little attention has been devoted to studying the effects of migrants on foreign direct investment (FDI). The presence of migrants can stimulate FDI by promoting information flows across international borders and by serving as a contract enforcement mechanism. This paper investigates the link between the presence of migrants in the US and US FDI in the migrants' countries of origin, taking into account the potential endogeneity concerns. The results suggest that US FDI abroad is positively correlated with the presence of migrants from the host country. The data further indicate that the relationship between FDI and migration is stronger for migrants with tertiary education.