Risk,learning, and technology adoption

This article explores how decision makers learn and use information, with an application to the adoption of biotechnology in agriculture. The empirical analysis relies on experimental and survey data measuring risk preferences, learning processes, and the adoption of genetically modified (GM) seeds among U.S. grain farmers. While controlling for risk aversion, we link individual learning rules with the cognitive abilities of each decision maker and their actual GM adoption decisions. We find evidence that very few individuals are Bayesian learners, and that the population of farmers is quite heterogeneous in terms of learning rules. This suggests that Bayesian learning (as commonly assumed in the analysis of agricultural technology adoption) is not an appropriate characterization. In addition, we do not find a strong relationship between observed learning styles and the timing of GM seed adoption. To the extent that learning is a key part of the process of technology adoption, this suggests the presence of much unobserved heterogeneity in learning among farmers.     

Forecasting the Adoption of GM Oilseed Rape: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment in Germany

This paper explores farmers’ willingness to adopt genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape prior to its commercial release and estimates the ‘demand’ for the new technology. The analysis is based upon choice experiments with 202 German arable farmers. A multinomial probit estimation reveals that GM attributes such as gross margin, expected liability from cross pollination, or flexibility in returning to conventional oilseed rape significantly affect the likelihood of adoption. Neighbouring farmers’ attitudes towards GM cropping and a number of farmer and farm characteristics were also found to be significant determinants of prospective adoption. Demand simulations suggest that adoption rates are very sensitive to the profit difference between GM and non‐GM rape varieties. A monopolistic seed price would substantially reduce demand for the new technology. A monopolistic seed supplier would reap between 45% and 80% of the GM rent, and the deadweight loss of the monopoly would range between 15% and 30% of that rent. The remaining rent for farmers may be too small to outweigh possible producer price discounts resulting from the costs of segregating GM and non‐GM oilseed rape along the supply chain.     

Incentives to Reduce Crop Trait Durability

To reduce the competition from farmers who self-produce seed, an inbred line seed producer can switch to nondurable hybrid seed. In a two-period framework, we first investigate the impact of crop durability on self-production, pricing and switching decisions. Second, we study how the introduction of a fee paid by self-producing farmers affects those decisions. We find that the monopolist may produce technologically dominated hybrid seed in order to extract more surplus from farmers. Further, the introduction of a self-production fee improves efficiency.     

Ex Ante Impact Assessment under Imperfect Information: Biotechnology in New Member States of the EU

Some argue that the lack of modern agricultural development in the former socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe has made cutting‐edge biotechnology attractive. However, enthusiasm for planting genetically modified (GM) crops varies greatly in the enlarged European Union (EU) and especially among the New Member States (NMS); the Czech GM maize area is progressively growing whereas Hungary imposed a de facto ban on GM crops. Remarkably, the Hungarian ban was not supported by any cost–benefit assessment. In the literature, ex ante impact assessments of monopolistically priced technologies are often based on cross‐sectional comparisons of average cropping budgets. Such assessments ignore heterogeneity of farmers and underestimate the true impact of these technologies because of homogeneity bias. Therefore, we propose an improved method by explicitly modelling farmer heterogeneity under imperfect information, and assess the potential value and benefit sharing of GM crops in the two NMS using a stochastic partial equilibrium model. The total potential value of GM crops is estimated at €82 million for both countries, of which €60 million (73%) accrues to farmers and €22 million (27%) to the gene developers and the seed industry. This is in line with the literature on global benefit sharing of first‐generation GM technologies.     

Bundling and Licensing of Genes in Agricultural Biotechnology

We examine the strategic incentive for gene holders to vertically integrate with seed companies and chemical input companies. With homogeneous conventional seeds, we find that a pure bundling strategy (produce the genetically modified seed only) is dominant. When the gene holder and breeder are, respectively, the monopolistic producers of genetically modified and conventional seeds, they may commit to mixed bundling (supply both genetically modified and conventional seed) to deter potential entry to the conventional seed market. A vertical merger may solve the credibility issue of the mixed bundling commitment through third party licensing agreements in the conventional seed market.     

Protecting Biotechnology IPRs in Developing Countries: Simple Analytics of a Levy Solution

High transaction costs and an absence of institutional infrastructure in developing countries prevent comprehensive enforcement of intellectual property rights and generate obstacles to the adoption of genetically modified (GM) crop technology. Governments of developing countries that are members of the World Trade Organization are faced with two options when licensing GM crop technology: (1) attempt to regulate GM crops to the standards of the Agreement on Trade‐Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS) or (2) allow a black market in GM seeds and risk trade retaliation from the GM innovator's host country through a TRIPS trade complaint. This paper develops a conceptual model that frames the adopting country's range of licensing options, including a new levy system, and derives welfare measures for each option. The model illustrates how a levy on GM technology can be a welfare‐increasing policy for developing countries, and the operation of a levy is discussed. The conceptual model is applied to Brazil's soybean market and quantitative economic surplus measures are estimated within a calibrated welfare model for a range of licensing scenarios. The model's results suggest that a levy may interfere with the long‐term prospects for innovators to collect monopoly rents in adopting countries.     

Competition, Externalities, and Input Substituting Technologies

The period 1997–2000 saw a rapid global consolidation of crop seed companies. The emerging companies are applying genetic engineering to exploit complementarities and substitutabilities between seed and other crop inputs. This article develops a model of competing technologies where one substitutes for a conventional input. A monopolist may cross-subsidize a technology that substitutes for an input in order to price discriminate between user types. In duopoly, a socially excessive or insufficient share of acres may be subject to an input substituting technology. Welfare improving regulations are identified in the case where a technology substitutes for an externality generating input.     

The estimated ex ante economic impact of Bt cowpea in Niger,Benin and Northern Nigeria

Genetically modified (GM) crops could increase economic growth and enhance living standards in Africa, but political issues have slowed the use of biotechnology. This is the first study that assesses the potential impact of GM crops in Africa while considering the preferences of producers and consumers towards GMOs as well as the income and price risks they face. The study uses a choice experiment to estimate the ex ante economic impact of a novel technology, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cowpea, on producers and consumers in Benin, Niger and northern Nigeria. The experiment involves the simulation of a market transaction similar to those in open air markets in West Africa. During the market simulation, respondents are informed about the advantages and disadvantages, including health risks, of Bt cowpea. The results from the study suggest that cowpea growers and consumers in Benin and northern Nigeria prefer Bt to conventional cowpea for health safety reasons. The results estimate that social welfare in Benin, Niger and northern Nigeria would increase by at least US$11.82 per capita annually with Bt cowpea, if seed sectors are operating smoothly. With inefficiencies in seed sectors and the potential for cowpea acreage increase, the estimated social welfare increase in the region would be about US$1.26 per capita annually.     

甘肃省杂粮种业现状、存在问题与发展策略探讨

[目的]甘肃省农业气候资源丰富,适宜种植的杂粮作物品种较多,但其杂粮种业发展存在诸多与现代农业不相适应的问题,严重制约了杂粮产业的发展,因此急需提出针对甘肃省特色杂粮种业发展的策略。[方法]文章通过实地调研与文献分析,全面系统地分析了杂粮种业的特点和存在问题,并提出了甘肃省特色杂粮种业的发展策略。[结果]调研发现,甘肃省杂粮种子产值高达2亿元以上,其种子研发体系正在完善,商业化速度逐步加快,市场前景广阔。但仍存在杂粮种业缺乏长远规划,杂粮作物种子市场尚不健全,缺乏育繁推一体化的种子企业,种子信息网络及监管机制不健全;育种创新能力有待提高,品种布局不尽合理;杂粮作物品种保护意识不强,对知识产权重视程度不够等诸多问题。因此需要充分发挥甘肃省自然气候生态特点,挖掘优势特色杂粮作物,整合资源,构建杂粮作物育种创新技术体系;建立健全杂粮种子质量监控体制机制;培育现代杂粮种业龙头企业和现代化销售网络等发展策略。[结论]甘肃杂粮作物种业具有广阔的发展空间。     

Farmer perception and valuation of seed quality: Evidence from bean and cowpea seed auctions in Tanzania and Ghana

Double blind field experiments and experimental auctions were conducted with bean and cowpea farmers in Tanzania and Ghana to gauge the relative demand for three types of seed products that differ in price and quality: certified, quality declared, and recycled. Whether the cost differential makes these seeds qualitatively different products as reflected in their perceived performance, and whether that translates into farmers’ willingness to pay price premiums, are the research questions addressed by this study. Results indicate that, all else equal, there were significant differences in the perceived quality of the seed products evaluated. Farmers were willing to pay significantly more for their higher rated seed relative to their lower rated seeds. However, for a majority of farmers the magnitude of the premium they are willing to pay for a higher quality seed is less than the current price differential between certified seed and grain. Research and policy implications of these results for legume seed system are discussed.     

Bias from Farmer Self‐Selection in Genetically Modified Crop Productivity Estimates: Evidence from Indian Data

In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm‐level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm‐level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self‐selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm‐level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect‐resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self‐selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed‐effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross‐sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self‐selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.     

On the regulation of spatial externalities: coexistence between GM and conventional crops in the EU and the ‘newcomer principle’*

Pollen‐mediated gene flow is one of the main concerns associated with the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops. Should a premium for non‐GM varieties emerge on the market, ‘contamination’ by GM pollen would generate a revenue loss for growers of non‐GM varieties. This paper analyses the problem of pollen‐mediated gene flow as a particular type of production externality. The model, although simple, provides useful insights into coexistence policies. Following on from this and taking GM herbicide‐tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus) as a model crop, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate data and then estimate the effect of several important policy variables (including width of buffer zones and spatial aggregation) on the magnitude of the externality associated with pollen‐mediated gene flow.     

葵花籽中水分含量测定不确定度评定

依据《食品安全国家标准食品中水分的测定》(GB 5009.3-2016)中第一法测定葵花籽中的水分。根据方法计算公式建立相应的数学模型,对葵花籽中水分的来源进行全面、细致的分析,通过对影响葵花籽中水分测定结果的4个不确定度分量μA(x)、μ(m1)、μ(m2)、μ(m3)进行量化分析,最后在实验中得出所测定葵花籽水分含量为6.82g/100g时,其扩展不确定度为0.06g/100g(k=2),进而得到了影响合成不确定度最主要的因素为μA(x),进一步保证了检测结果的准确性和稳定性。     

新镇痛药物资源角蒿(Incarvillea sinensis)的种子生物学及栽培技术研究

目的:研究角蒿驯化栽培生产技术。方法:进行野外调查,采集,弄清角蒿的生态习性和资源状况;进行种子生物学研究及田间栽培实验。结果:野生角蒿多见于干燥的草原地带,土壤以沙壤土为主,喜全光照、干燥气候;以种子进行繁殖,种子无休眠特性,千粒重约为0.4～0.5g;幼苗为子叶出土型;基生叶对生,茎生叶互生;栽培时对土壤要求不严格,喜肥。播种时需将种子与湿沙混合,浅播,播后加强水分管理,其它管理措施与二年生作物相同。结论:角蒿野生资源稀少,栽培技术较为简单,该技术有利于角蒿的规模化开发。     

Which farmers benefit the most from Bt corn adoption? Estimating heterogeneity effects in the Philippines

The potential contributions of new biotechnologies to sustainable food and income security have been the subject of widespread discussions around the turn of the 21st century. But distributional issues of which segments of adopters of genetically modified (GM) crops benefit the most have not been given ample attention). Using propensity scores, we apply the (a) stratification‐multilevel method of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects; and the (b) matching‐smoothing method of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects proposed by Xie et al. We find that the incidence of higher yields, lower insecticide use, and reduced seed utilization in the Philippines diminishes progressively as a farmer's propensity to adopt Bt corn increases. Farmers with a low propensity to adopt Bt are those who farm smaller, nonirrigated farms located farther from seed suppliers and farmers without previous training on pest identification. In most cases, while these farmers are typically poorer farmers in smaller parcels, cannot afford irrigation and are situated in remote areas away from easily accessible seed suppliers, there is no evidence, however, that profits differ across farmers with varying propensities to adopt the Bt variety.     

Welfare Impacts of Intellectual Property Protection in the Seed Industry

We examine the welfare impact of different intellectual property protection (IPP) regimes in private sector seed research and development (R&D). We take into account the period after expiration of legal IPP, and require simultaneous equilibrium in markets for R&D, seeds, and final product. Optimal IPP is remarkably insensitive to alternative parameterizations, except for R&D productivity. Results suggest that optimal IPP is greater than IPP in the U.S. seed corn market, but lower than the IPP that could be attained with genetic use restriction technologies. Optimal IPP is much higher than IPP achieved under open-pollinated crops or where legal IPP is limited.     

Labelling Genetically Modified Food: Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences and the Value of Information

One facet of public debate associated with genetically modified (GM) food focuses on labelling policy for products derived from GM processes. This paper reports on the analysis of effects on consumers' choices of pre-packaged sliced bread under different GM food labelling policies. Substantial heterogeneity is found to exist among consumers' tastes for various bread attributes, including the presence/absence of GM ingredients in bread products. A simulation-based bias-adjusted measure is applied to estimate the value of information, as opposed to the value of the presence or absence of GM ingredients, revealed to consumers by different labelling procedures for the GM attribute. The information that is provided in a mandatory labelling context is considerably more valued by consumers than the information provided in a voluntary labelling context. In a final section, estimated consumer benefits from labelling policies are expressed in terms of average market prices for bread products, providing a measure of benefits against which potential cost increases that may be associated with labelling policies may be compared in the context of any future benefit–cost analysis of GM labelling.     

Early adoption,experience, and farm performance of GM corn seeds

The current article explores the characteristics that distinguish early from late adopters of GM corn and measures the productivity impacts of early adoption, for a sample of farmers in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The results of the adoption analysis confirm that size, education as well as specialization are positively correlated with early adoption. In addition, these results also show that farms that are mostly worked by family labor but hire some off‐farm labor are more likely to adopt GM seeds earlier in the diffusion process. The productivity analysis demonstrates the superiority of stacked varieties. At the same time, we find no evidence of a direct impact of experience on yields. Given the previously documented impact of early adoption on the use of stacked varieties, we conclude that experience plays a role through the adoption of these new technologies but does not play a role in allowing the producer to use the technology more efficiently, once it has been adopted.     

Farmer knowledge across the commodification spectrum: Rice,cotton, and vegetables in Telangana,India

Crop seeds are a factor of production that can be produced on farm or bought, commodified in varying ways and degrees, and that can change slowly or rapidly—all of which directly impact the crucial process of farmer “skilling.” Seed choices also offer a unique empirical window through which farmer knowledge may be studied. Although other studies have examined the differences between cash and food crops, this research provides new insights into varyingly commodified crops within the same agrarian system. When planting rice, genetically modified hybrid cotton seeds, and garden vegetables, farmers in Telangana, India, face different constraints and opportunities to learn about their seeds and practice that knowledge in the field. These differences arise from agronomic properties of the seeds themselves as well as from the sociocultural meaning that structures the context in which farmers buy, grow, and save them. This measurable discrepancy in farmer knowledge and experience presents an opportunity to examine the variable impact of seed commodification as it is experienced by the same group of farmers across several different crops. Building on theories of commodification and agricultural knowledge, we propose that the different ways in which farmer knowledge operates in these crops reflect a spectrum on which knowledge and commodification are inversely related.     

Stakeholder views on issues to consider when assessing the sustainability of genetically modified potato

The importance of assessing socio-economic and sustainability aspects of genetically modified (GM) crops is increasingly recognized by policy-makers, both within the EU and internationally. Nevertheless, experience has shown that it is challenging to assess and implement these aspects in actual decision-making processes. This paper argues that stakeholder engagement may provide valuable insights when developing frameworks for sustainability assessment of GM crops. We organized two stakeholder workshops with the aim to gather perspectives on the sustainability of cultivating late blight resistant (LBR) GM potato in Norway. Sixteen Norwegian stakeholders involved in potato production and in agriculture in general took part in the workshops. Here, we present and discuss the outcomes of this participatory approach. The stakeholders identified several conditions that an LBR GM potato ought to satisfy in order to contribute to sustainable development. These conditions concerned environmental and health safety aspects of cultivating LBR GM potato, potential for fungicide reductions, durability of the LBR GM potato plant's resistance, farmers' profitability and consumer acceptance. In addition, the stakeholders considered issues such as maintenance of a diversity of potato cultivars, transparency during product development and risk assessment processes, ownership and control and opportunity for independent risk research as important considerations in a sustainability assessment. While focusing on a specific application of agricultural biotechnology, we believe that these findings are useful contributions to the ongoing efforts to develop frameworks and guidelines for assessing sustainability and socio-economic considerations of GM crops in general.