我国外商直接投资地区分布影响因素研究——基于空间面板数据模型

外商直接投资(FDI)在我国空间分布的显著非均衡性引发了大量有关FDI区位选择的经验研究,但相关研究往往忽视了FDI的空间依赖性对其区域分布的影响.基于此,本文选取我国1990-2004年28个省区的数据资料,从地区固定效应和时间固定效应两方面对空间面板数据模型进行估计,考察FDI的空间相关性对我国FDI地区分布的影响.研究发现,空间面板数据模型对现实FDI地区分布的拟合效果更好、解释力更强;我国各省FDI的区位分布存在正向的空间相关性,相邻地区吸引外资的增加能够带动本地区吸引更多的外商投资.     

中国FDI的行业空间分布与对区域经济发展的影响分析

近年来外商直接投资在我国的分布日渐广泛,由于进入各地的FDI行业不同,对我国地区经济发展的影响也就不同。本文试图通过对进入中国FDI的行业空间分布的研究,分析FDI的行业投资的空间分布特征,首先用区位商分析FDI的行业相对空间分布,即各行业FDI投资项目在各省市的集中程度;然后采用偏离－份额分析法对一定时段内各省市FDI投资项目的行业变化进行计算,得出各省市FDI投资项目产业结构效果指数和竞争效果指数,通过分析认为：直接外资重点分布的东部沿海虽然在吸引FDI方面具较强竞争力,但这一地区FDI的结构效果并不明显,原因是东部沿海FDI项目结构亟街改变,投资于小规模的劳动密集型制造工业已近饱和,而中西部地区由于进入的FDI额少,项目少,因而FDI投资结构对目前其吸引FDI的能力并无太大影响。并简单谈到具有空间差异的FDI行业分布对我国各地区经济发展的影响。     

FDI,Industry Heterogeneity and Employment Elasticity in China

We investigate the different impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) on employment elasticity with China's firm level data from 1998 to 2007. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of FDI does significantly affect firms' employment elasticity when facing wage, capital and output shocks. These effects vary dramatically across industries with different factor intensities and export status. Specifically, we find that non‐exporters with FDI tend to increase employment elasticity more than exporters when wage, capital input or output changes. However, FDI firms that are engaging in labor‐intensive production tend to have larger output and capital input elasticity of employment while smaller wage elasticity of employment. Our findings help to explain the contradicting results in existing literature and provide important references for China's policy makers to design proper industry policies towards FDI.     

Industry Mix and Curvilinear Spillovers from FDI in China

This paper uses industry and province specific Chinese industrial data to demonstrate a potential causal link between two strands of the FDI literature. The first strand suggests that the impact of spillovers from inward FDI is less robust in middle-income economies than in either high-income or low-income economies. The second strand suggests diminishing returns of inward FDI on horizontal labor productivity in low-technology industries but not in high-technology industries. This paper suggests a link between these two phenomena. Specifically, if both FDI intensity and industry mix vary with the level of economic development, then an industry-dependent relationship between inward FDI and horizontal spillovers could cause middle-income economies to derive fewer benefits from inward FDI than either high- or low-income economies. This paper also verifies the curvilinear relationship between FDI in low-technology industries and horizontal labor productivity without relying on problematic FDI from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macao.     

Exposure to FDI and new plant survival: evidence in Canada

Abstract This paper examines the effects of FDI on indigenous new plants’ survival, through intra‐ and inter‐industry economic linkages. It includes all manufacturing plants born to indigenous firms from 1973 to 1997 in Canada. The study finds that indigenous plants tend to have shorter lives (more deaths) due to competition with FDI affiliates operating in the same industry, but they benefit from FDI affiliates operating both in downstream industries as customers and in upstream industries as suppliers. The positive inter‐industry effects of FDI outweigh the negative intra‐industry effects, resulting in a net positive impact of FDI on the durations of indigeneous plants.     

Risky business: Institutions vs. social networks in FDI

Political economy scholarship on foreign direct investment (FDI) emphasizes variation in host country political risk but overlooks variation in investors' sensitivity to political risk. We show that relational contracting, relationship‐based contract enforcement, is more efficient for high‐risk, human capital‐intensive activities for which the costs of writing legally enforceable contracts are prohibitive. We disaggregate FDI into two distinct varieties: mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and venture capital (VC). We propose that VC flows are less sensitive to host institutions but correlate strongly with skilled migrant networks that monitor compliance and impose reputational costs. Our empirical analysis of dyadic VC and M&A flows covers over 100 countries during 1980–2009. We address other mechanisms through which migrant networks facilitate FDI and verify our results hold at the country‐industry level. These findings suggest that relational contracting facilitates global integration of dynamic, knowledge‐intensive industries even when formal institutions are weak.     

制造业FDI行业内和行业间溢出对全要素生产率变动的影响*

在中国制造2025的大背景下,如何利用FDI来促进制造业全要素生产率、技术效率与技术水平的提升具有重要意义。采用2005—2014年中国制造业的26个行业的面板数据实证分析FDI行业间和行业内的技术溢出对全要素生产率变动的影响,结果发现行业内直接溢出能有效促进内资制造业全要素生产率和技术效率的提高;行业内间接溢出则会挤占内资企业的生存空间阻碍全要素生产率、技术效率和技术水平的增长;行业间后向关联程度能显著且明显地促进内资制造业全要素生产率和技术效率的提升;行业间前向关联程度能显著但微弱地抑制内资制造业全要素生产率和技术效率的提升。     

中国服务业外商直接投资的区位选择因素分析

随着服务业开放程度的加深,服务业外商直接投资(FDI)流入的规模正在迅速增长。由于服务企业的经营活动具有自身的特点,其区位决策也必然不同于制造企业。文章试图从服务业的特征出发,探讨服务业跨国投资的区位选择动因,并在此基础上对服务业FDI在中国的区位影响因素进行实证检验。在前人研究的基础上,本文系统整理了服务业外商直接投资区位选择的影响因素,并建立了初步的理论分析框架,从需求因素、供给因素和市场环境因素三个方面分析服务业跨国公司的投资区位选择行为。随后,利用1998-2004年中国大陆15个省市的面板数据进行计量检验,结果发现:(1)从全国来看,基础设施和政府干预程度是影响我国服务业FDI区位选择的关键因素;(2)在东部地区,服务业FDI体现出较强的追随客户的特性,而中西部地区需要加大基础建设投资才能吸引更多的服务业FDI;(3)分时期的检验结果表明,服务业FDI追随客户的特性有逐渐加强的趋势。此外,服务业跨国公司在投资时一直对经济开放程度高的地区有所偏爱。     

FDI and productivity growth: the role of inter‐industry linkages

Abstract There is a large literature on the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on productivity through inter‐industry economic linkages. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the developed economy of Canada. It finds that FDI generates strong effects on total factor productivity (TFP) growth through both forward and backward inter‐industry linkages, and increase in an industry's absorptive capacity raises the effects of FDI on TFP growth through forward inter‐industry linkages. For R&D intensive industries, the effects of FDI on TFP growth through inter‐industry linkages are small, but imports turn out to be an important source for TFP growth.     

知识产权保护、FDI与国际收入转移

"加强知识产权保护能吸引更多外商直接投资(FDI),并能使后发国受益"这一命题能否构成支持加强后发国知识产权保护的论据?文章将知识产权保护对FDI、自主创新、国内模仿和国外模仿的影响纳入三方参与的两阶段动态博弈模型,讨论后发国通过加强知识产权保护来吸引FDI的政策效应。分析认为后发国通过加强知识产权保护能吸引更多FDI,但并不一定能从中获益。因为:FDI偏向进入能够对后发国产生最小收益的产业;加强知识产权保护产生了大量国际收入转移;通过加强知识产权保护,由FDI进入新行业而增加的利润将被已有FDI产业利润的减少所抵消。根据各行业特征选择相应的最优知识产权保护才能使总体福利最大化。     

外商直接投资对中国环境污染影响的再考察——基于外资来源和行业差异视角

基于中国城市统计年鉴数据和中国工业企业数据库,采用GMM估计实证检验了外商直接投资(FDI)对于中国环境污染的影响效应。研究结果表明,FDI对于不同污染物的影响效应存在巨大差别,FDI提高了工业废水排放,降低了工业二氧化硫排放。进一步分析表明,造成这种现象的原因是港澳台投资和外国投资的质量和行业分布差异。港澳台投资具有负面的环境绩效,而外国投资对中国的环境污染状况具有改善作用。利用中国工业企业数据库,统计分析不同行业的外商资本金构成情况,发现不同来源的FDI在行业间的分布情况存在差异。FDI的质量和行业分布差异,导致FDI对不同污染物产生不同的环境效应。论文为学者们关于FDI对中国环境影响的争论提供了一个合理的解释,也对中国的引资政策和环境治理具有一定的参考价值。     

Does FDI Facilitate Domestic Entry? Evidence from the Czech Republic

This paper analyzes the impact of FDI on domestic firm entry and firm size distributions in the Czech Republic during 1994–2000. We find that larger foreign presence stimulates the entry of domestic firms within the same industry, indicating the existence of positive horizontal spillovers from FDI. We also find evidence of significant vertical entry spillovers—FDI in downstream (upstream) industries initiates entry in upstream (downstream) sectors. Our results also show that entry spillovers through vertical linkages are stronger than horizontal spillovers and that while service industries benefit from both horizontal and vertical spillovers, manufacturing industries do not experience significant positive entry spillovers of any kind. We also find that country of origin of FDI matters—horizontal spillovers are driven by FDI from the EU countries. The right skewness of the firm size distributions in industries without FDI further emphasizes an important role of FDI presence for overall industry dynamics.     

FDI、人均收入与环境效应

本文利用时间序列数据对FDI的环境效应进行了整体分析,利用省际面板数据对FDI、人均收入和环境污染进行了区域分析。结果表明:FDI对环境产生了负的规模效应、负的结构效应和正的技术效应,但FDI对区域间的环境污染程度则有不同表现——东部地区污染程度加重,中部和西部则相反。而且随着人均收入的提高,我国整体上环境污染程度趋于好转。对此本文提出了要提高引资质量和引资标准,调整FDI投向,加强环境管制,转变政府引资思路的政策建议。     

FDI与OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新的门槛效应研究

选取2003-2016年省域高技术产业面板数据，以R&D人员投入为门槛变量，实证分析FDI与OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新的非线性影响。得出以下稳健性结论：FDI和OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新具有双门槛效应，FDI溢出呈现先升后降的特征，而OFDI溢出则呈现先降后升特征；R&D人员投入、R&D资本积累、城镇化水平有利于高技术产业区域创新，而金融成熟度未产生明显推动作用；政府支持可能对R&D人力投入较高省份产生抑制作用；2003-2016年跨越R&D人员投入中、高门槛的省份在不断增加。     

环境规制对FDI溢出效应的影响 ——来自中国市场的证据

本文利用中国39个工业行业2000-2009年的相关数据,考查FDI水平、前向、后向技术溢出效应、环境规制强度对各工业技术进步的影响以及环境规制强度对FDI溢出效应的影响,结果发现：FDI水平技术溢出效应没有促进各工业行业的技术进步;FDI前向技术溢出效应对促进各工业行业技术进步的作用不稳定;FDI后向技术溢出效应促进了各工业行业的技术进步;环境规制强度的提高有利于促进各工业行业的技术进步。进一步研究还发现,加强环境规制会促进FDI垂直技术溢出效应。     

我国物流业全要素生产率及其影响因素分析

运用索洛残值法测算了1997—2010年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的物流业TFP,构建空间计量模型,对物流业TFP的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:我国各省的物流业TFP具有明显的空间相关性和空间异质性;地理环境因素对物流业TFP的影响显著,地理位置相邻地区的物流业TFP具有趋同现象;基础设施和工业化进程对物流业TPF的提高有显著的正向影响,而市场需求条件和市场化水平的促进作用不显著。     

新兴经济体FDI流入的决定因素及中国的应对策略

吸引FDI流入是新兴经济体促进经济发展的重要手段,但FDI活动深受东道国区位因素的广泛影响。利用1995-2009年的面板数据,对新兴经济体吸引FDI流入的决定因素进行实证分析,结果表明:FDI与东道国聚集效应、市场规模、基础设施、资源禀赋、经济开放度显著正相关,但与东道国人力资本和政治风险负相关。因此,中国应该强化FDI的区域聚集效应、行业聚集效应和特定投资来源地聚集效应,保持经济稳定、持续的增长,加大对落后地区的基础设施建设的投入,构建全方位的对外开放体系和引资战略,实现经济持续快速发展。     

How does FDI affect China? Evidence from industries and provinces

Using the latest panel data from 19 industries and 30 provinces in China, we found it is not true that more FDI necessarily brings about more output growth across the board. Local industries without foreign participation lose while those with some participation gain from the inflow. Provinces in western and central regions lose while those in the eastern and coastal regions appear to be the major beneficiaries. While the net effect of FDI is still positive, the regional disparity has been growing. It casts doubt on the rationale of haphazard and lavish policies to compete for FDI in China. Journal of Comparative Economics 35 (4) (2007) 774–799.     

中国FDI区位分布的空间效应研究

目前关于我国FDI区位选择因素的大部分实证研究都是建立在双边框架内,考虑第三方效应并从城市角度进行的研究还少有涉及。本文在新近发展起来的"第三国效应"理论基础上,运用空间面板计量方法,对1985—2005年期间我国30个省市区的154个地级及以上城市的FDI区位分布的空间效应进行检验。发现全样本154个城市的FDI之间存在显著的空间效应,周边城市的FDI增量可以增加某城市的FDI流入量,周边城市的市场规模越大某城市的FDI流入越多,各城市的FDI流入也受到周边城市FDI不可测因素的影响。对三大地区内部、三大地区之间及长、珠三角与三大地区之间等不同子样本的FDI空间效应的检验,发现东、中、西部地区FDI的主导类型分别为集聚垂直复合型、受限的集聚垂直复合型和水平型。     

Hunting High and Low for Vertical FDI

Recently the horizontal and vertical models of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been synthesized into the knowledge‐capital (KK) model. Empirical tests, however, find that the horizontal model cannot be rejected in favor of the KK model. I suggest this is because the empirical specifications are too restrictive for vertical FDI to manifest itself. Using an alternative specification, I find evidence of vertical FDI. In particular, when I use the stock of FDI I can reject the horizontal model in favor of the knowledge‐capital model and identify countries for which FDI is dominated by vertical investment.