Trade, Multinational Sales, and FDI in a Three-factor Model

The overwhelming importance of multinational activities as well as the coexistence of exporters and multinationals within the developed countries demand for theoretical models which provide a convincing explanation of simultaneous two‐way trade and horizontal multinational activities. We present a model with three factors of production to disentangle the two‐fold role of headquarters for their affiliates into a know‐how (headquarters services) and a capital‐serving part (FDI). We simulate the model to derive predictions about the impact of trade costs, plant set‐up costs, fixed multinational network costs, relative country size and factor endowments on exports, multinational sales and FDI. The effects are not uniform for multinational sales and FDI. Whereas exports and affiliate sales increase with the similarity in country size, FDI is more likely to increase monotonously with the sending country's size.     

Transportation Costs and US Manufacturing FDI

In empirical models of foreign direct investment (FDI), distance is most often used to proxy for transportation costs and other pure‐trade costs. Given that distance is time invariant but transportation costs are not, this approach is less than satisfactory when actual transportation costs rise and fall over time.The contribution of this work is to explicitly control for transportation costs and thereby better understand their impact on FDI. We explore the impact of shipping costs on total US FDI stocks abroad, manufacturing stocks and service stocks using measures of sea‐shipping and air‐shipping costs in a Hausman–Taylor model that controls for endogeneity and allows for time‐invariant variables such as distance. We find that transportation costs have a positive and statistically significant relationship with US total and manufacturing FDI, suggesting a substitute relationship between FDI and trade flows consistent with horizontal MNE activity. As one would expect, these costs are insignificant for service stocks.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Transfer Under Uncertainty in a Liberalizing Host Economy

This paper tackles the issue of investment and optimal ‘choice’ of market structure for a foreign multinational enterprise (MNE) in a newly liberalized economy under uncertainty and in the presence of sunk costs. A minimalist duopolistic model is developed whereby a foreign investor's subjective belief about the probability distribution of policy uncertainty is endogenized as a function of the aggregate output in the tradable goods sector. The main propositions derived from the model are consistent with some unconventional empirical findings in the literature on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), technology transfer to and crowding out of domestic firms in LDEs.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand

We explore entry into a foreign market with uncertain demand growth. A multinational can serve the foreign demand by two modes, or by a combination thereof: it can export its products, or it can create productive capacity via foreign direct investment (FDI). The advantage of FDI is that it allows for lower marginal cost than exporting does. The disadvantage is that FDI is irreversible and, hence, entails the risk of creating under-utilized capacity in the case that the market turns out to be small. The presence of demand uncertainty and irreversibility gives rise to an interior solution, where the multinational, under certain conditions, both exports its products and does FDI.     

The timing and probability of FDI: an application to US multinational enterprises

An ‘option-pricing’ model is employed to analyse the timing of FDI. Assuming that the firm's profits are determined by the attractiveness of both the home and foreign countries, and that attractiveness follows a Brownian motion, an optimal trigger value of FDI is derived. The model shows that, contrary to the NPV rule, FDI entry should be delayed the greater the uncertainty of attractiveness in both locations. Another important result is that MNEs do not regard FDI as a risk-diversification tool. The results of the model were then tested empirically with US FDI data, using labour costs as a proxy for (the reciprocal of) attractiveness. The results support the findings of the analytical model.     

Trade,foreign direct investment or acquisition: Optimal entry modes for multinationals

We examine multinationals' optimal entry modes into foreign markets as a function of market size, FDI fixed costs, tariffs and transport costs. Our results highlight why large countries are more likely to attract acquisition investment, while intermediate sized countries may be served predominantly through trade, even in the presence of high tariffs. Small countries are most likely to experience either FDI or no entry. We also show how these results vary with the competition intensity in the host country.FDI fixed costs, tariffs and transport costs are crucial not only in determining whether to engage in FDI or trade, but they are also shown to influence the acquisition choice as trade and FDI threats influence the acquisition price. Finally, we explore the welfare implications of tariff reductions for both the local firm and the multinational and investigate political motives to impose endogenous tariffs that influence not only the welfare of a local firm, but also the entry mode of the multinational.     

Investment Liberalization and Cross‐Border Acquisitions: The Effect of Partial Foreign Ownership

This paper investigates the optimal strategy for a multinational to conduct FDI. We find that the incentives to use acquisition rather than greenfield investment change significantly if the multinational is allowed to have already an ownership interest in the target local firm before the market is fully liberalized. Interestingly, when investment costs are sufficiently high, the multinational prefers not entering the market at all with partial ownership in place, whereas a cross‐border takeover would be the optimal entry mode otherwise. For intermediate levels of entry costs, holding a stake in the local producer reverses positively the profitability of a full acquisition compared to greenfield investment.     

Power in the multinational corporation in industry equilibrium

Recent theories of the multinational corporation introduce the property rights model of the firm and examine whether to integrate or outsource firm activities locally or to a foreign country. This paper focuses instead on the internal organization of the multinational corporation by examining the power allocation between headquarters and subsidiaries. We provide a framework to analyse the interaction between the decision to serve the local market by exporting or FDI, market access and the optimal mode of organization of the multinational corporation. We find that subsidiary managers are given decision power to run the firm at intermediate levels of host country competition. We then provide comparative statics on the optimal organization of the multinational corporation for changes in fixed FDI entry costs, trade costs, as well as changes in information technology.      

Fixed Costs, Foreign Direct Investment, and Gravity with Zeros

Fixed costs play a crucial role in current models of foreign direct investment (FDI), yet they are almost entirely ignored in empirical treatments of FDI. We fill this gap by using a 1989–2001 panel of FDI flows into Iceland to examine the determinants of fixed costs for multinational firms and how these influence aggregate patterns of investment. Our additions to research in the field include usage of several natural-resource variables, and the analysis of data on initial entry of FDI into a developed country. We use the Heckman two-step procedure, which allows us to account for fixed costs and their impact on estimation. Taken together, we find that the standard OLS approach to the data incorrectly links the quantity of FDI to source-country variables while in fact most of their role is in determining whether FDI takes place at all.     

Welfare effects of competition for FDI between technologically asymmetric countries with varying trade costs

Given the traditional argument that host countries' excessive competition for FDI (foreign direct investment) deteriorates the host countries' welfare, this paper examines the impact of policy competition for FDI on social welfare considering varying trade costs. Based on a model where two technologically asymmetric countries compete for FDI, we determine an equilibrium where a multinational firm relocates to a less efficient country. Moreover, we demonstrate that the policy competition for FDI between less integrated economies might improve social welfare when the multinational firm relocates to a country with a lower technology and a less competitive market. Nonetheless, we show that the traditional argument can be true when the policy competition for FDI between highly integrated economies deteriorates host countries' welfare, as supported by the empirical evidences of moderated competition for FDI within EU member countries.     

What is Driving the Manufacturing FDI Wave in Asia?

This paper analyzes the dynamic pattern of Japanese manufacturing foreign direct investment (FDI) in Asia. Japanese electronics firms shifted manufacturing operations abroad in the 1990s. We focus on the timing of the surge in FDI: why in this period did Japanese electronics firms increase manufacturing FDI in Asia? The empirical findings indicate that, in addition to productivity improvements, learning experiences from FDI were the primary determinants of the FDI wave. Firms' own past FDI experiences, the experiences of other firms (spillovers), and the presence of own distribution services encourage manufacturing FDI.     

跨国公司、区域一体化与社会福利——一个垄断模型的扩展

跨国公司与区域一体化间的关系主要涉及两个核心问题:区域一体化如何影响跨国公司的直接投资行为;跨国公司的存在如何影响区域经济一体化收益。文章通过一个扩展后的垄断模型将以上两个传统上分割开来的命题统一于一个框架内进行探讨,分析显示,区域一体化对跨国公司直接投资的影响具有一定的不确定性,跨国公司的存在也使区域一体化的收益趋于模糊,国家特征和生产技术特征因素在两个互有联系的问题上均具有决定性的影响。     

Export‐supporting FDI

A large fraction of affiliates owned by multinational manufacturing companies operate in the wholesale and retail sectors. This paper proposes a model of trade, horizontal FDI, and export‐supporting FDI (ESFDI). ESFDI reduces distribution costs abroad, while production remains at home. ESFDI introduces a complementarity between trade and FDI, while trade and production abroad remain substitutes. German firm‐level FDI data show that ESFDI is quantitatively relevant. In line with the model, most firms choose either ESFDI or horizontal FDI in a given market; ESFDI is chosen by smaller parents and is strongest when distance from Germany is low.     

Lobbying and the power of multinational firms

Can multinational firms exert more power than national firms by influencing politics through lobbying? To answer this question, we analyze the extent of national environmental regulation when policy is determined in a lobbying game between a government and a firm. We compare the resulting equilibrium regulation levels, outputs and welfare in a game with a multinational firm with those in an otherwise identical game with a national firm. For low transportation costs, output and pollution of a national firm are always as least as high as for a multinational; this changes for high transportation costs and intermediate damage parameters. When there is no lobbying, welfare levels are always higher with multinationals than with national firms. However, the existence of lobbying may reverse this ordering.     

Bankruptcy costs,economic policy uncertainty,and FDI entry and exit

In this paper, we examine how the effect of economic policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment (FDI) entry and exit varies with the cost of bankruptcy resolution. Using a sample of bilateral FDI entry and exit for 23 countries and areas from 2004 to 2012, we find that an increase in bankruptcy costs in a country exacerbates the dampening effect of economic policy uncertainty on both FDI entry and exit. Subsample analysis reveals that the bankruptcy resolution channel only exists in high political risk countries. We also find that the bankruptcy resolution channel does not exist for foreign portfolio investment, which is consistent with real option theory. Broadly put, our contribution is at the nexus of institutional theory and FDI, as we identify the bankruptcy resolution channel through which economic policy uncertainty affects FDI entry and exit.     

Capacity Choice and Preemption of a Foreign Market

This paper studies the strategic role of foreign direct investments (FDIs) when specified as a device for a multinational enterprise (MNE) to precommit capacity. This captures the idea of an MNE preempting the host market or, at least, achieving more profitable outcomes by setting the initial conditions of the post-entry competition with local rivals. Here, the MNE chooses FDI even if "exporting costs" (e.g., tariffs) are not considered. Market preemption is an alternative justification for FDI, but not the only one; sometimes the tradeoff between advantages of strategic leadership and cost of establishing offshore facilities, alone, justifies FDI.     

Multinational Firms and Technology Transfer

We construct an oligopoly model in which a multinational firm has a superior technology compared to local firms. Workers employed by the multinational acquire knowledge of its superior technology. The multinational may pay a wage premium to prevent local firms from hiring its workers and thus gaining access to their knowledge. In this setting, the host government has an incentive to attract FDI due to technology transfer to local firms or the wage premium earned by employees of the multinational firm. However, when FDI is particularly attractive to the multinational firm, the host government has an incentive to discourage FDI.
JEL classification : F 13; F 23; J 41; L 13; O 14; O 33; O 38     

Tax competition for foreign direct investment under information uncertainty

The relation between taxation states and foreign direct investment (FDI) has been studied from several perspectives and with states at different levels of development. Most previous studies, however, have only considered the impact of tax level on FDI volume. This paper enhances this view by assuming that multinational enterprises (MNEs) can use transfer prices systems and have investment timing flexibility. Thus, it evaluates the impact of the use of international transfer pricing systems on state policy and on the investment timings of MNEs. In uncertain business environments (with the periodic releases of news), investment can increase if MNEs delay investment decisions. This paper shows how tax differentials can attract FDI and can influence MNE behavior. The equilibrium is set in a global environment where MNEs can shift their profits between states depending on local corporate tax rates. Assuming the use of transfer pricing schemes, this paper confirms the relationship between MNE behavior and the release of business news.     

Asymmetric Demand Information and Foreign Direct Investment*

We examine the FDI versus exports decision of firms competing in an oligopolistic (quantity‐setting) market under demand uncertainty and asymmetric information. Compared to a firm that chooses to export, a firm that chooses to set up a plant in the host market has superior information about local market demand. In addition to the well‐known tension between the fixed set‐up costs of investment, the additional variable costs of exports and oligopoly sizes, the incentive to invest abroad is explained by the strategic learning effect. FDI may be observed even if trade costs are zero. The analysis is robust to price competition and to the possibility that a foreign firm can engage in both FDI and exports.     

Foreign direct investment and vertical integration of production by Japanese multinationals in Thailand

We test the vertical model of foreign direct investment (FDI) empirically using firm level information on Japanese multinational activity in Thailand. These data allow us to investigate the effects of both home country (Japan) and host country (Thailand) characteristics on the inter-industry pattern of FDI. For 85 manufacturing industries over the period from 1985 to 1995, we find a positive influence of industry variation in skill intensity and market size in the host country and a negative effect of transport costs on the amount of FDI. These results provide strong direct econometric evidence of vertical integration of production across the countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 805–821.