International trade in services: A portrait of importers and exporters

We provide a novel set of stylized facts on firms engaging in international trade in services, using unique data on firm-level exports and imports from the world's second largest services exporter, the United Kingdom (UK). We show that only a fraction of UK firms engage in international trade in services, that trade participation varies widely across industries and that service traders are different from non-traders in terms of size, productivity and other firm characteristics. We also provide detailed evidence on the trading patterns of service exporters and importers, such as the number of markets served, the value of exports and imports per market and the share of individual markets in overall sales. We interpret these facts in the light of existing theories of international trade in services and goods. Our results demonstrate that firm-level heterogeneity is a key feature of services trade. Also, we find many similarities between services and goods trade at the firm level and conclude that existing heterogeneous firm models for goods trade will be a good starting point for explaining trade in services as well.     

Low-wage country competition and the quality content of high-wage country exports

We study how competition from low-wage countries in international markets affects the quality content of high-wage country exports. We focus on aggregate quality changes driven by a reallocation of sales from low- to high-quality exporters, within industries. Two alternative indicators are used on firm-level data to measure quality changes. Both lead to similar conclusions. Namely, we show that the mean quality of French exports increased by 10–15% between 1995 and 2005. Quality improvement is significantly more pronounced in markets in which competition from low-wage countries has increased the most. This holds true for various specifications including two different identification strategies. The results are consistent with competition from low-wage countries leading developed countries to specialize within industries in the production of higher quality goods.     

Cheap Imports and the Loss of US Manufacturing Jobs

This study examines the role of international trade and specifically imports from low‐wage countries, in determining patterns of job loss in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2007. Motivated by intuitions from factor‐proportions‐inspired work on offshoring and heterogeneous firms in trade, we build industry‐level measures of import competition. Combining worker data from the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics data set, detailed establishment information from the Census of Manufactures and transaction‐level trade data, we find that rising import competition from China and other developing economies increases the likelihood of job loss among manufacturing workers with less than a high school degree; it is not significantly related to job losses for workers with at least a college degree.     

An empirical assessment of the welfare effects of reciprocal dumping

Can two-way trade in similar products lead to lower welfare than if such trade was banned? Theory answers yes. To empirically investigate this proposition we examine Swedish imports of bottled water. Assuming one-shot (Bertrand and Cournot) competition, we can use the estimates from a structural model of demand to uncover marginal costs. We simulate the effect on consumer and producer surplus of banning imports. We do not find convincing evidence that banning imports would increase overall welfare. Given our choice of market this suggests we should not be overly concerned with the welfare effects of two-way trade in consumer goods that are close to homogenous.     

Trade policy, trade volumes and plant-level productivity in Colombian manufacturing industries

This paper explores a period of substantial variation in trade policy across industries in Colombia (1977-1991) to examine whether increased exposure to foreign competition generates productivity gains for manufacturing plants. Using an estimation methodology that addresses the shortcomings of previous studies, we find a strong positive impact of tariff liberalization on plant productivity, even after controlling for plant and industry heterogeneity, real exchange rates, and cyclical effects. The impact of liberalization is stronger for larger plants and plants in less competitive industries. Our findings are not driven by the endogeneity of protection. Similar results are obtained when using effective rates of protection and import penetration ratios as measures of protection. Productivity gains under trade liberalization are linked to increases in intermediate inputs' imports, skill intensity, and machinery investments, and to output reallocations from less to more productive plants.     

Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries

We derive a micro-founded measure of bilateral trade integration that is consistent with a broad range of leading gravity models. This measure accounts for cross-industry heterogeneity by incorporating substitution elasticities estimated at the industry level. We then use it to provide a theory-based ranking of trade integration across manufacturing industries in European Union countries. In addition, we explore the determinants of trade integration, finding that substantial Technical Barriers to Trade in certain industries as well as high transportation costs associated with heavy-weight goods are the most notable trade barriers.     

CONSUMERS’ VIEWS ON RESTRICTING IMPORTED APPAREL

The United States and most developed countries have experienced a dramatic influx of imported apparel, usually from low-wage, developing countries. In the U.S., industry representatives, retailers, economists, and others have been vocal in expressing their views to influence trade negotiations aimed at orderly trade in this commodity area. Consumers are affected by trade agreements but appear never to have been consulted previously regarding the restriction of imported apparel. This paper gives results of a telephone survey of 408 consumers in 10 areas of the eastern U.S. to ascertain their views toward apparel imports. Overall, respondents expressed strong preference for domestically produced apparel. A majority of the consumers perceived a trade deficit in apparel, saw imports as damaging to the domestic industry, felt that stronger laws should be passed to further restrict imported apparel, and said their clothing purchases were influenced by their views toward limiting imports. Chi-square tests determined relationships among the variables. A noteworthy contradiction was present in the findings. If further restrictions on imports were to become a reality, as the consumers said they would prefer, this means that respondents expressed loyalty to the domestic industry at the expense of being able to make choices which might be most advantageous to them as consumers.     

The dynamics of trade and competition

We estimate a version of the Melitz and Ottaviano [Melitz, Marc J. and Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P., 2008, Market size, trade, and productivity, Review of Economic Studies 75(1), pp. 295-316.] model of international trade with firm heterogeneity. The model is constructed to yield testable implications for the dynamics of prices, productivity and markups as functions of openness to trade at a sectoral level. The theory lends itself naturally to a difference in differences estimation, with international differences in trade openness at the sector level reflecting international differences in the competitive structure of markets. Predictions are derived for the effects of both domestic and foreign openness on each economy. Using disaggregated data for EU manufacturing over the period 1989-1999 we find short run evidence that trade openness exerts a competitive effect, with prices and markups falling and productivity rising. The response of profit margins to openness has implications on the conduct of monetary policy. Consistent with the predictions of some recent theoretical models we find some, albeit weaker, support that the long run effects are more ambiguous and may even be anti-competitive. Domestic trade liberalization also appears to induce pro-competitive effects on overseas markets.     

International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports, though they can match net exports relatively well. Inspired by the fact that a large fraction of international trade is in durable goods, we propose a two-country two-sector model in which durable goods are traded across countries. Our model can match the business cycle statistics on the volatility and comovement of the imports and exports relatively well. The model is able to match many dimensions of the data, which suggests that trade in durable goods may be an important element in open-economy macro models.     

GVC参与度对中国制造业出口国内附加值的影响研究

基于贸易增加值核算框架,使用2000年~2014年中国18个制造业的样本数据,应用广义最小二乘法实证检验了GVC参与度对出口国内附加值的影响效果。结果显示:参与GVC程度的加深会带动出口国内附加值的增长,进口中间品会降低出口国内附加值,但GVC参与度提高所引起的出口国内附加值增长幅度大于进口中间品所引起的下降幅度,出口国内附加值与GVC地位存在U型关系,行业生产效率的提升、产品国际竞争力的增强和加入WTO都显著提高了出口国内附加值,改变出口国内附加值的测度方法后,上述结果依然稳健。将制造业分为高、中级技术类别,高技术制造业有更强的附加值获取能力,中级技术制造业更多依赖高密集度的劳动投入分享附加值。     

中美贸易摩擦的结构效应分析

本文主要利用贸易一般均衡模型反事实模拟量化分析中美可能的全面贸易摩擦对两国出口结构和产业结构的影响。结果表明:中美传统出口优势行业在中美贸易摩擦中受到的负面冲击比较大,中国出口集中度下降,而美国的变化不大;中美全面贸易摩擦将会导致中国制造业的产出份额减少,而初级产业和服务业产出份额增加;美国初级产业的产出份额减少,制造业和服务业的产出份额增加;受关税冲击较为严重的制造业产出份额的减少会导致相关联的生产性服务业产出份额减少。未来中国要增强战略定力和战略自信,积极利用国际规则应对国际贸易摩擦;同时,从产业链、供应链以及创新等方面进一步深化供给侧改革,促进产业结构优化升级。     

Do overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan

This paper investigates the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports and imports from Japan, employing an augmented standard gravity model. Several econometric techniques, including the Gamma Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator, are used to rectify possible problems of heteroskedasticity and zero trade flows inherent in the estimation of gravity models of trade. The major finding is that outward FDI is trade enhancing for the Japanese manufacturing industry. However, we find that whether outward FDI creates or replaces trade depends on the industry under scrutiny. Our results indicate that the complementary relationship between FDI and trade is dominant in Japanese manufacturing, especially in the food and beverages, electric machinery, primary metals, and precision machinery sectors. We find also that Japanese overseas investments substitute for imports of chemical products, and for both exports and imports of general machinery.     

Uganda's policy reforms,industry competitiveness and regional integration: a comparison with Kenya

The paper reviews, first, Uganda's economic policies affecting the industrial sector and analyses the international competitiveness of Uganda's manufacturing industries, using a sample of 21 firms in 12 industries. It computes indices of comparative advantage, export and domestic competitiveness and compares the Ugandan indicators with those of Kenyan firms. It also identifies the main sources and obstacles to competitiveness using a decomposition method, which breaks the unit cost indices down into their main components. The study is timely as Uganda is re-establishing a free trade zone with Kenya and Tanzania, and also faces liberalized trade with the rest of the world. The numerical results of the study suggest that Ugandan firms, although not generally cost-competitive with Kenyan and other international firms, due to the country's land-locked geography and its de-industrialization under the preceding political regimes, have benefited from a recently established business-friendly environment and are more competitive in several industries than is generally assumed. This means that they may not be able to export internationally, but they are likely to hold their ground against Kenyan imports under regional free trade.     

不完全竞争、贸易与资源配置扭曲

传统理论认为,随着全球化的深入,市场竞争加强,垄断程度会越来越低,因此当市场处于开放的状态下,贸易被认为能够帮助纠正垄断定价带来的资源配置扭曲。然而数据显示,行业间和地区间的成本加成异质性随着时间增长在不断扩大,贸易使垄断力量差异变大。由于行业进入壁垒不同,贸易对竞争程度不同的行业影响不同,进入壁垒低的行业由于更易于参与贸易,成本加成相比于进入壁垒高的行业进一步降低,这也预示着各行业间的成本加成差别将会变大,资源配置扭曲的程度加深。本文试图建立一个包含不完全竞争的一般均衡模型,说明开放部分行业的贸易政策会导致福利损失,而市场进入壁垒的消除能纠正不对称贸易自由化造成的资源配置扭曲。     

辽宁省在东亚区域生产网络中的地位及作用

删掉从中间品生产以及垂直化分工生产的角度利用RCA指数和VSS指数,衡量和分析研究了辽宁省2010-2018年间在东亚区域生产网络中的地位。RCA指数表明,出口贸易中,辽宁省在传统制造业产品上具有竞争性,对于高附加值的产品较缺乏竞争优势。中间品贸易方面,辽宁省在东亚生产网络中以半成品以及零部件中间品的进出口为主,同时,从日本和韩国进口半成品占比高于其他经济体,反映了辽宁省主要参与了东亚区域生产网络的加工组装环节。细分行业看,辽宁省在电器机械及器材制造业、非金属矿物制品业等行业的垂直专业化程度较高,在通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业等高附加值产品的垂直专业化相对较低。研究表明,辽宁省在东亚区域生产网络中,主要参与传统制造业的半成品和零部件的加工组装环节,其在区域产业链中的地位和自身产业结构有待进一步提升。     

International Outsourcing and the Skill–Specific Wage Bill in Eastern Europe

This paper analyses the effects of international fragmentation in terms of intermediate goods trade on the dynamics of the skilled–to–unskilled labour wage bill ratio in 14 manufacturing industries of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Both intermediate goods exports and imports of the CEEC exhibit a positive impact on the wage bill ratio. Since 1993, intermediate goods trade with the EU alone has accounted for a considerable reduction of the predicted annual change in the skilled–to–unskilled wage bill ratio in the three CEEC.     

Has the Byrd Amendment Affected US Imports?

The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA), also known as the Byrd Amendment, allows the US government to distribute revenues from antidumping duties to domestic firms alleging harm. Prior to the amendment these revenues were not distributed to firms. In this article, we formally test the hypothesis that the Byrd Amendment effectively provides double protection to US firms to the extent that it further restricts US imports, as argued by the EU and 11 other US trading partners. Using a rich panel of 362 US manufacturing industries for the period 1998 to 2003, we find that whether or not the Byrd Amendment restricted US imports depends crucially on the level of competitiveness in the import‐competing industry. Specifically, we find that the Byrd Amendment served to restrict imports only in industries where competition is relatively weak, while the amendment is associated with an increase in imports in more competitive industries.     

Input tariff liberalisation and servitisation in manufacturing: Evidence from China's WTO accession

This paper links the sharp drop in China's manufacturing servitisation (MS) in early 21st century to China's accession to WTO featured by conspicuous input trade liberalisation (ITL). The results show that manufacturing industries exposed to higher degree of ITL suffer more MS declines after China's accession to the WTO. Heterogeneous analysis shows that industries with high import intensity, capital intensity or technology intensity suffer more MS declines following input trade liberalisation. Further analysis shows that input trade liberalisation increases the import of intermediate inputs while significantly reduces the proportion of service imports for manufacturing industries. The results are robust to a series of robustness checks.     

全球要素分工与中国出口贸易利益研究

文章利用贸易附加值模型测算了我国制造部门及细分行业在1994～2008年间出口贸易利益水平,并进行总量与行业的趋势分析,发现我国制造业近十几年来的总出口附加值比率长期锁定在[30.31%,36.41%]区间内,均值为32.98%。在细分行业中,加工贸易特征明显,尤其是所谓的"高科技"产业的贸易附加值比重相对更低。     

Optimum tariffs and retaliation: How country numbers matter

This paper identifies a new terms-of-trade externality that is exercised through tariff setting. A North-South model of international trade is introduced in which the number of countries in each region can be varied. As the number of countries in one region is increased, each government there competes more aggressively with the others in its region, by lowering its tariff, to attract imports from the other region. In doing so, all countries in a region exert a negative terms-of-trade externality on each other, collectively undermining their own terms of trade and welfare. This externality can increase efficiency if the numbers of countries in both regions are increased simultaneously.