Share the Fame or Share the Blame? The Reputational Implications of Partnerships

We use an adverse selection model to study the dynamics of firms' reputations when firms implement joint projects. We show that in the case of joint projects a firm's reputation does not necessarily increase following a success and does not necessarily decrease following a failure. We also study how reputation considerations affect firms' decisions to participate in joint projects. We show that a high‐reputation partner is not necessarily preferable to a low‐reputation partner and, when implementation of the joint project by a single firm is possible, a high‐quality partner may not be preferable to a low‐quality partner.     

基于实物期权法对R&D项目价值评估的研究——对布莱克-舒尔斯定价模型的改进

针对R&D项目投资的特点,探讨了采用布莱克一舒尔斯期权定价模型对R&D项目价值评估可能存在的缺陷,并提出一种改进方法,即将决策树和布莱克一舒尔斯定价模型结合运用,因为决策树能够模拟研发项目的阶段性决策过程,考虑到多个离散型不确定性因素的相关性,模拟并计算出对决策路径依赖的现金流,因此能克服纯粹使用布莱克一舒尔斯公式的不足,在考虑多个不确定性因素的影响下,实现对多阶段R&D项目价值的评估,作出正确的投资决策。     

Compound real option valuation with phase-specific volatility: A multi-phase mobile payments case study

Multi-staged R&D projects are copy-book cases of compound real options. Traditional compound option models assume a constant volatility over the lifetime of the project. Building on the n-fold compound option model of Cassimon et al. (2004), we extend this model to allow for phase-specific volatility estimates, while preserving the closed-form solution of the model. We illustrate the extended model with a case study of a real option valuation of a multi-stage software application project by a large mobile phone operator and we show how project managers can estimate phase-specific volatilities.     

Bayesian Estimation of Willingness‐to‐pay Where Respondents Mis‐report Their Preferences*

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis‐reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness‐to‐pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239–269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non‐pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis‐reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis‐reporting in favour of the non‐pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.     

Optimal risk rate in a functional inverse problem

In this note, we will consider the problem of recovering an unknown input function when the output function is observed in its entirety, blurred with functional error. An estimator is constructed whose risk converges at an optimal rate. In this functional model, convergence rates of order 1/n (n is the sample size) are possible, provided that the error distribution is sufficiently concentrated so as to compensate for the ill‐posedness of the inverse of the model operator.     

‘The City of Our Dream’: Owambe Urbanism and Low‐income Women's Resistance in Ibadan,Nigeria

Ibadan, Nigeria, has been an outlier in the ranking of world‐class cities. But in the past seven years, amidst the circulating Africa Rising narrative, Ibadan has embarked on what I call an Afropolitan Imagineering project of owambe urbanism. Afropolitan Imagineering refers to the production of new images/narratives of Africa and Africans as world‐class and cosmopolitan. Owambe urbanism is a spatio‐temporal neoliberal project concerning destination, arrival and place‐making, which promises a shared and happy future for all urban dwellers. I argue that this promise of happiness is challenged by low‐income women who are cognizant that a shared and happy future is impossible when little effort is made to address social inequality in the present. They thus refuse to be ‘good’ citizens and invoke an alternative urban futurity through their embodied and imagined resistance.     

Robust Likelihood Methods Based on the Skew-t and Related Distributions

The robustness problem is tackled by adopting a parametric class of distributions flexible enough to match the behaviour of the observed data. In a variety of practical cases, one reasonable option is to consider distributions which include parameters to regulate their skewness and kurtosis. As a specific representative of this approach, the skew‐t distribution is explored in more detail and reasons are given to adopt this option as a sensible general‐purpose compromise between robustness and simplicity, both of treatment and of interpretation of the outcome. Some theoretical arguments, outcomes of a few simulation experiments and various wide‐ranging examples with real data are provided in support of the claim.     

A Comprehensive Framework for Sustainable Project Portfolio Selection Based on Structural Equation Modeling

Project selection problems are inherently complex problems with multiple and often conflicting objectives. The complexity of project selection problems is due to the high number of projects from which a subset (portfolio) has to be chosen. Various analytical methods, ranging from the simple weighted sum to complex mathematical programming have been proposed to solving these problems. We propose an integrated approach for strategic and sustainable project portfolio selection, which is composed of two distinct but interrelated modules. In the first module, we use the strategic planning and sustainability concepts to select a set of promising projects. In the second module, we use a project portfolio selection procedure to choose among the promising projects identified in the first module. A structural equation model is used to analyze and explain the relationships among different factors in the proposed framework. More specifically, we investigate the effects of: (1) strategic level performance on sustainability, post‐implementation, and overall performance; (2) implementation performance on post‐implementation and overall performance; (3) portfolio selection performance on implementation and overall performance; and (4) post‐implementation performance on overall performance. A case study in investment banking is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms.     

Investment decisions and managerial compensation design in the presence of product market rivalry

We consider an economy where firms operate in an imperfectly competitive industry and mutually affect each others’ investment opportunities. Each firm is assumed to face a mutually exclusive choice of investing in either a short‐ or a long‐term project. For example, firm i's commitment to a short‐term project cuts into firm j's market in the short‐term but frees‐up firm j's long‐term market, and vice versa. Our results show that, even in the absence of an owner–manager conflict, the owner anticipates the product market rivalry and optimally compensates their managers with short‐ as well as long‐term compensation. Although the optimal compensation design induces myopic investment decisions, it is shown to be in the owners’ best interest. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diagnostic analysis for a vector autoregressive model under Student′s t‐distributions

In this paper, we use the local influence method to study a vector autoregressive model under Student^′s t‐distributions. We present the maximum likelihood estimators and the information matrix. We establish the normal curvature diagnostics for the vector autoregressive model under three usual perturbation schemes for identifying possible influential observations. The effectiveness of the proposed diagnostics is examined by a simulation study, followed by our data analysis using the model to fit the weekly log returns of Chevron stock and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index as an application.     

基于增长期权的煤层气开发项价值评估模型

煤层气开发项目具有高度的风险性,传统的项目评价方法忽略了开发过程中的不确定性,低估了煤层气开发项目的价值。针对煤层气开发项目的风险性,考虑到煤层气的开发将给煤炭开采、能源利用等一系列后续投资项目带来的投资机会,引入增长期权理论探讨了煤层气开发项目价值,并运用Black-Scholes期权定价公式,建立了基于增长期权的煤层气开发项目价值评估模型。该模型为煤层气开发企业有效地规避风险提供了解决方法,也为合理地评价煤层气开发项目价值提供了一种新的思路。     

Positioning of the stakeholders in the interaction project management–project marketing: A case of a coconstructed industrial project

Based on a business‐to‐business (B‐to‐B) case within the automotive industry, this study proposes logics (constructivist and determinist, respectively) of protagonists and highlights the complexity of their dynamics during the successive project's phases. The concept of milieu will emphasize the complex business in which project marketing takes place; notably, it allows better identification of relevant relationships. Our article focuses on this concept of milieu with regard to the interactions between project marketing and project management actors during project phases. In particular, this article underlines the difference and the accommodation between the dynamics of interaction and the dynamics of congruence of marketing and management logics.     

An Experimental Test of the Robustness and the Power of Forward Induction

Existing experimental studies tested the forward induction (FI) prediction, an equilibrium selection criterion, in a battle‐of‐the‐sexes game and found limited support due to a confounding focal point. The focal point arises from an asymmetrically offered outside option in the first stage of the game. The robustness of FI to different first‐stage asymmetries, however, is still unknown. To investigate this issue, the paper sheds light on the interplay of FI and (i) payoff asymmetries and (ii) endogenously generated asymmetries (in a game that is initially fully symmetric). The results from a laboratory experiment confirm the robustness and power of the FI prediction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional Inequalities in Consumption Patterns: A Multilevel Approach to the Case of Italy

The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the disparities in the Italian regions on the demand side. In more detail, an attempt will be made to find if the consumption behaviour of Italian households is different in the regions. With this in mind, Istat's 2000 Italian Family Budget data set was analysed. The data in question, which were collected through a two‐stage sample over Italy's 20 regions, contains information regarding the expenses of approximately 23,000 households. In this analysis, both households and regions are considered as units: households are nested in the regions so that the basic data structure is hierarchical. In order to take this hierarchical structure into account, a multilevel model was used, making it possible for parameters to vary randomly from region to region. The model in question also made it possible to consider heterogeneity across different groups (regions), such as stochastic variation. First, regional inequalities were tested using a simple model in which households constituted the first level of analysis and were grouped according to their region (the second level). As a second step, and in order to investigate the interaction between geographical context and income distribution, another model was used. This was cross‐classified by income and regions. The most relevant results showed that there is wide fragmentation of consumption behaviour and, at the same time, various differentiated types of behaviour in the regions under analysis. These territorial differentials become clear from income class and items of consumption.     

Mutual Caring—Resolving Habituation Through Awareness: Supporting Meaningful Learning From Projects

This study used Grounded Theory methodology and developed an emergent theory of Mutual Caring. The main concern was Habituation to ineffective lessons learned sharing practices. Habituation is resolved through Mutual Caring, a socially and psychologically adaptive process. Mutual Caring involves comfortable conversations, engaging/sharing, and developing self‐confidence, resulting in an enhanced wisdom pool. This paper extends the emphasis on tangible knowledge‐sharing mechanisms. Mutual Caring could lead to better outcomes, such as more accessible and usable knowledge, a project management wisdom pool, and criteria for improved dyadic relationships to enhance project learning.     

What makes a good project manager?

There is a growing awareness within project‐based sectors of the relationship between performance and managers' competencies. This article reports on research that investigated the competency profile of ‘superior’ project managers working within the construction industry, one of the most complex and dynamic project‐based industrial sectors. The study combined an assessment of both their behavioural competencies and job‐task competencies. The results reveal that while their job‐task competencies are highly specific to the industry in which they work, the behavioural competencies of superior project managers are mostly generic in nature and apply to a range of other management positions. This research shows how it is practically possible to identify the competency profile of superior managers and utilise this framework for managing the performance of this key management group.     

The German model in danger

The German high‐skills/high value‐added economy has long been the Mecca for supporters of the European social model. So long as Model Deutschland was thriving the notion of Social Europe was a plausible political project. But Germany is facing a range of economic problems—the aftershock of reunification, high unemployment and internal and external pressures to reform its stakeholder system of economic organisation. Some of these developments strike at core assumptions of the German model. This article reviews the extent to which the German model is in danger and teases out the implications for the wider European economy.     

Multiple Testing for No Cointegration under Nonstationary Volatility

With cointegration tests often being oversized under time‐varying error variance, it is possible, if not likely, to confuse error variance non‐stationarity with cointegration. This paper takes an instrumental variable (IV) approach to establish individual‐unit test statistics for no cointegration that are robust to variance non‐stationarity. The sign of a fitted departure from long‐run equilibrium is used as an instrument when estimating an error‐correction model. The resulting IV‐based test is shown to follow a chi‐square limiting null distribution irrespective of the variance pattern of the data‐generating process. In spite of this, the test proposed here has, unlike previous work relying on instrumental variables, competitive local power against sequences of local alternatives in 1/T‐neighbourhoods of the null. The standard limiting null distribution motivates, using the single‐unit tests in a multiple testing approach for cointegration in multi‐country data sets by combining P‐values from individual units. Simulations suggest good performance of the single‐unit and multiple testing procedures under various plausible designs of cross‐sectional correlation and cross‐unit cointegration in the data. An application to the equilibrium relationship between short‐ and long‐term interest rates illustrates the dramatic differences between results of robust and non‐robust tests.     

Accounting for Employee Stock Options: What Can We Learn from the Market's Perceptions?

The scope of this is paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the value relevance of employee stock options (ESOs) in Europe. We show, empirically, that the market participants when pricing a firm's equity place approximately the same valuation weights on the ESO‐deferred compensation expense (the so called “ESO asset”) and the compensation option liability (the so called “ESO liability”). Our empirical findings support the theoretical work of Ohlson and Penman who suggest that the deferred compensation expense be treated as a contra‐liability. The second contribution of our work rests on the nature of the ESO expense. We show that the distinction between persistent and non‐persistent ESO expenses is of critical importance for the market participants. Accordingly, an improved accounting disclosure should assist the investors in assessing the long‐term goals of the ESO plans at the firm level.     

Organizational Learning in Project‐Based Companies: A Process Thinking Approach

Although a traditional project model is clearly useful for laying out the patterns of relationships surrounding a project, it does not provide the temporally embedded accounts that enable us to understand how organizational learning takes place. The process thinking perspective offers a means to solving this problem. This article provides an analysis of how different processes interact dynamically in order to benefit project‐based companies' organizational learning. Two findings from this study are: (1) organizational learning is a dynamic concept that emphasizes the continually changing nature of a project‐based company and (2) sensemaking and negotiation of meaning are ongoing processes in project‐based companies.