城市轨道交通对沿线周边住宅价格的影响分析——以北京地铁四号线为例

城市轨道交通是一种公益性、经济外部性都很强的大型公共基础设施,其高效的通达性促进周边住宅升值明显提升。科学地分析城市轨道交通对住宅价格的影响效应,对合理规划沿线住宅项目开发、调整城市空间布局具有重要意义。本文以北京地铁4号线周边住宅作为研究对象,对影响住宅价格的因素进行回归分析,并构建了半对数形式的特征价格模型。经过分析得出住宅距离轨道交通线路的远近、所处的位置、周边1000m范围内公交站点的数量以及住宅至市中心或中央商务区(CBD)的实际距离四个变量对住宅价格的影响比较显著,并且探讨了地铁站点与住宅距离减少,对住宅增值的作用。     

Daily House Price Indices: Construction,Modeling, and Longer‐run Predictions

We construct daily house price indices for 10 major US metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat‐sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case–Shiller house price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of longer‐run monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower‐frequency data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Editorial

This paper reports the results of 16 market experiments designed to produce measures of the effects of nonresidential land uses on the prices of nearby dwellings. Each experiment consists of a sample of home sales in a homogeneous neighborhood located near a single nonresidential land use, e.g., industry, commercial, high-density dwellings, and highways. The data consist of price, physical characteristics of the dwelling, distance from the nonresidential use, and the date of sale for each transaction. Hedonic price indices are estimated and the significance of the distance effects assessed. No systematic relationship between nonresidential land use per se and housing prices is found.     

The Impact of Manufactured Housing on Adjacent Residential Property Values: A GIS Approach Based on Three North Carolina Counties

This empirical study examines the impact of manufactured housing (MH) on the values of adjacent site-built residential properties using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and large data samples for three counties in North Carolina, USA, for the period of 1994-2000. Both property appreciation rates (AR) and property values (PV) are examined with respect to proximity to MH. While ARs are based on a simple measure of value appreciation, PVs are estimated in a linear regression based hedonic price model, which is designed to captures the contributions of structure and location attributes to property values. Results indicate that the appreciation rates slightly decreased with distance from a MH unit in Buncombe and Wake, but the reverse is true in Pitt. The statistical analyses reveal that proximity to a manufactured home influences the value of nearby site-built residential property. Estimated property values show that the further away from a manufactured home, the higher the site-built property value, other things being equal.     

The contagion effect of foreclosed properties

Although previous research shows that prices of homes in neighborhoods with foreclosures are lower than those in neighborhoods without foreclosures, it remains unclear whether the lower prices are the result of a general decline in neighborhood values or whether foreclosures reduce the prices of nearby non-distressed sales through a contagion effect. We provide robust evidence of a contagion discount by simultaneously estimating the local price trend and the incremental price impact of nearby foreclosures. At its peak, the discount is roughly 1% per nearby foreclosed property. The discount diminishes rapidly as the distance to the distressed property increases. The contagion discount grows from the onset of distress through the foreclosure sale and then stabilizes. This pattern is consistent with the contagion effect being the visual externality associated with deferred maintenance and neglect.     

Housing and the Korean economy

This paper explores the nexus between housing and the Korean economy. It starts with an overview of the size, growth, and volatility of residential investment in conjunction with long-term resource allocation and short-term macroeconomic fluctuations. Then, the evolution of housing finance and its implications for recent house price run-up are discussed. The relationships among housing price, consumer spending, and inflation are also investigated. Particular attention is paid to the debate over house price bubbles, housing wealth effects on consumption, and the causality between house price and inflation. The paper concludes with a brief assessment of government intervention to stabilize house prices.     

基于面板数据模型的商品住宅价格上涨作用机理及实证研究——以西部地区7个中心城市为例

商品住宅价格上涨过快的现象,引起了广泛关注。探寻商品住宅价格上涨的作用机理显得非常重要。利用面板数据模型,对西部7个中心城市2002-2008年的商品住宅平均价格的实证研究表明:西部中心城市商品住宅价格形成过程中,起到显著作用的有城镇居民可支配收入水平、商品住宅竣工面积和国内生产总值三个主要动力因素。     

Hedonic Model在二手房价格分析中的应用——以昆明市为例

以昆明市城区二手房为研究对象,利用Hedonic模型和统计学方法研究房价与特征属性的定量关系。结果表明半对数函数模型的拟合度最高,回归系数表明二手房区位特征中环线位置对房价的影响最大。住宅属性对房价影响程度依次是环线位置、轨道交通、物业管理费、容积率、教育配套、公交线路、装修程度、建筑面积。     

School Quality and Real House Prices: Inter- and Intrametropolitan Effects

This study focuses on explaining variations in real constant-quality house prices in jurisdictions located in multiple MSAs. Using a hedonic house price framework, we test competing theories of house price determination. Using two variants of the random coefficients model, we find that public school quality has a very large impact on real constant-quality house prices. Our results suggest that capitalization of school quality differences occurs on a per lot basis rather than per square foot of land. Also important to the explanation of variations in house prices are variables derived from urban theory, such as distance to the CBD, and from the amenity literature, such as a community's crime rate, arts, and recreational opportunities     

Business,housing, and credit cycles

We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical components in gross domestic product (GDP), credit volumes, and house prices for the USA and the five largest European economies. With the exception of Germany, we find large and long cycles in credit and house prices, which are highly correlated with a medium‐term component in GDP cycles. Differences across countries in the length and size of cycles appear to be related to the properties of national housing markets. The precision of pseudo real‐time estimates of credit and house price cycles is roughly comparable to that of GDP cycles.     

The Structure of Urban Land Prices

Recognition of the existence of nonlinear land prices has an impact on the measurement of the rate at which land price declines with distance from the urban center. It is hypothesized that concave parcel prices have given rise to overly large estimates of the rate of price decline with distance, because parcel sizes increase with distance and increased parcel sizes would be associated with lower unit prices as a result of the concavity of the land price function. This hypothesis is empirically tested using vacant residential, commercial, and industrial land sales from within Cook County, Illinois. An important finding is that allowing for concavity greatly reduces, although it does not eliminate, measured rates of price decline with distance.     

近距离煤层采空区底板破坏特征及影响分析

针对近距离煤层开采过程过中,上层煤开采过后导致下层煤巷道围岩受扰动破坏,下层煤回采巷道围岩破碎严重、完整性较差的实际情况,利用滑移线场理论再结合部分矿场,进行实际计算不同采高时上层煤采空区底板破坏的范围,并根据两煤间距变化情况对不同状况下下层煤巷道稳定性进行分析,得出了采空区底板最大破坏深度随采高的增加而增大、两煤间距越大对下层煤巷道稳定性影响越小的结论。     

AN EMPIRICAL SURVEY OF RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND MODELLING

Abstract The increased reliance on demand‐side management policies as an urban water consumption management tool has stimulated considerable debate among economists, water utility managers, regulators, consumer interest groups and policymakers. In turn, this has fostered an increasing volume of literature aimed at providing best‐practice estimates of price and income elasticities, quantifying the impact of non‐price water restrictions and gauging the impact of non‐discretionary environmental factors affecting residential water demand. This paper provides a synoptic survey of empirical residential water demand analyses conducted in the last 25 years. Both model specification and estimation and the outcomes of the analyses are discussed.     

Estimating the commuting cost and commuting time property price gradients

In this paper, we estimate the property price gradients in Hong Kong. We distinguish our effort from previous studies on the subject by directly measuring the economic distance, i.e., the monetary commuting cost and commuting time, instead of merely the physical distance. Our results are generally supportive of the prediction of a negative property price gradient. In one specification, the estimated capitalization of the savings of commuting cost in property prices appears to be just right. The expected negative effect of commuting time on property values, however, can only be detected among observations with larger commuting times. Nevertheless, over the range where the effect of commuting time has the expected negative sign, the values of time implied by the estimates agree well with the results reported in the transportation economics literature.     

House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership

Using a repeat-sales methodology, this paper finds that estimates of house price risk based on aggregate house price indices substantially underestimate the true size of house price risk. This is the result of the fact that aggregate house price indices average away the idiosyncratic volatility in house prices. Additional results show that the idiosyncratic risk exceeds the hedging benefits of home ownership. These results imply that for many home owners, owning a house may well add more price risk than it hedges away. These findings are based on a detailed dataset of individual housing transactions in the Netherlands.     

Renewable energy and negative externalities: The effect of wind turbines on house prices

In many countries, wind turbines are constructed as part of a strategy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. In this paper, we measure the external effect of wind turbines on the transaction prices of nearby houses. A unique Dutch house price dataset covering the period 1985–2011 is used, as well as the exact location of all wind turbines that were built in the Netherlands. Using a difference-in-differences methodology we find a 1.4% price decrease for houses within 2 km of a turbine. There is also evidence for anticipation effects a few years before placement of a turbine. The effect is larger for taller turbines and in urban areas. Especially the first turbine built close to a house has a negative effect on its price.     

深部矿压规律及巷道围岩稳定性控制研究

随着矿井开采深度的不断增加,深部矿井巷道围岩的稳定性控制越来越困难,深部矿压的规律也越加难以掌握,这对矿井开采的安全性造成了严重影响。结合我国深井开采矿压的特征,本文对深部巷道围岩的稳定性控制技术进行了研究,并对深部矿压规律作了探讨,得出相关结论,供同行参考借鉴。     

Estimating the Demand for Housing, Land, and Neighbourhood Characteristics

This paper provides estimates of the structure of demand for individual housing and neighbourhood characteristics and for land in two British cities. We estimate a hedonic price function, and from this obtain the implicit prices of house attributes. These prices are used to estimate a demand system for each city. These perform well, and enable us to calculate price and income elasticities for each of the non-dichotomous characteristics and for land. To counteract criticisms of demand estimates derived within the hedonic framework a method is developed for selecting an appropriate set of instrumental variables. Estimates derived from this method, however, differ only slightly from those obtained using the conventional techniques. Several features of these estimates provide insights into the unusual characteristics of the British housing market, the effects of constraints imposed by land use planning, and the effects of changing income distribution on the structure of demand.     

Risk shocks and housing supply: A quantitative analysis

This paper analyzes the role of stochastic uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production and provide estimates of the time-series properties of risk shocks by using firm level productivity data. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for understanding housing price movements. Specifically, the model can match the volatility of housing prices observed in the data. It is also demonstrated that adjustment costs are important in replicating the contemporaneous correlation of housing prices with GDP and residential investment. Critically, bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices and are an important determinant of house price volatility. However, in comparison to housing demand shocks, risk shocks have low explanatory power for real quantities.     

Estimating household demand for housing attributes in rent-controlled markets

We estimate the household’s marginal willingness to pay for housing attributes in the rent-controlled sector, so where rents are not freely market determined. The application of hedonic price approaches to obtain estimates of the household’s value of housing characteristics is then invalid. We apply an alternative estimation approach based on residential mobility. In our application, we focus on the households’ willingness to pay for number of rooms as well as the willingness to pay to avoid a long commuting distance. Our estimates appear plausible. For example, for households in the rent-controlled sector are willing to pay about 7% of their household income for an additional room. The implied marginal costs of commuting are about €0.17–€0.23 per (one-way) kilometre.