ESTIMATION OF SYMMETRIC INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES: AN EXTENSION TO BOHLIN AND WIDELL

This paper presents two optimisation models for use in the production of symmetric input–output tables (SIOTs) based on data contained within supply-use tables (SUTs). The first model produces commodity-by-commodity SIOTs derived from the selection of appropriate technology assumptions, while the second produces industry-by-industry SIOTs derived through the selection of appropriate sales structure assumptions. Both models address the problem of negative coefficients and also permit the use of rectangular SUTs as base input data. Additionally, this paper explores the development of a ‘comprehensive model’ enabling production of both commodity-by-commodity and industry-by-industry SIOTs that are conceptually and mathematically consistent.     

Bayesian selection of technology assumptions for the transformation from supply-use to input–output tables

ABSTRACT

In the construction of input–output models from supply-use tables, technology assumptions disambiguate how an industry uses inputs in the production recipe of multiple outputs. This paper uses Bayes' theorem to select technology assumptions, taking into account empirical observations. The paper presents a formulation to explore hybrids between product and industry technology assumptions in product-by-product tables. We then present Markov chain Monte-Carlo techniques to implement the Bayesian method for selecting technology assumptions. We apply the method in a case study using Eurostat supply-use tables of 2004 and 2005, exhibiting a volume of secondary products of less than 13%, and 59 products and industries per country. The results show that the choice of technology is not important, given that there is no strong evidence in favour of any of them.     

Dynamic inoperability input-output modeling for economic losses estimation in industries during flooding

Among all natural disasters, flood stands as a recurrently happening disaster. It holds the aptitude to disrupt the organizations and to cause absenteeism of the workforce in industries. As the workforce is directly involve in the functioning of industries, work force absenteeism can cause reduced production and inoperability which outcomes in financial losses of industrial sectors. This research objects to estimate inoperability of industries due to distraction of workers by incorporating Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM). Economic losses are determined from inoperability. Industrial area which is selected for the research includes local industries in Peshawar, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Various industries are chosen and are ordered according to inoperability and economic losses. Industries having highest financial damages are: (i) Agriculture; (ii) Sugar mills; and (iii) Marble industry. These three industries hold liable for 40.6% of the overall financial losses of fifteen industries. Industries suffering from highest inoperability include (i) Sugar mills; (ii) Agriculture and (iii) Marble industry. A risk analysis frame work has also been developed to help industrial sectors to recover after a disaster. Besides, data of three different floods has also been taken for the above mentioned critical sectors to plot probability distributions for predicting economic losses of most frequent floods. Furthermore, this research methodology has been applied to flooding but it can be applied to any other disaster, everywhere.     

Economic convergence: Policy implications from a heterogeneous agent model

In this paper we study the effectiveness of different types of cohesion policies with respect to convergence of regions. A two-region agent-based macroeconomic model is used to analyze short-, medium- and long-term effects of policies improving human capital and fostering adoption of technologies in lagging regions. With fully integrated labor markets the human capital policy positively affects the economically stronger region but reduces production in the targeted weaker region. Subsidies for high technology investment in the weaker region have a positive local output effect and a negative effect on the neighboring region, thereby fostering convergence. When labor markets are not integrated both policies support convergence.     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BASED ON RECTANGULAR SUPPLY-USE TABLES

This paper formalises the so-called Supply-Use Based Econometric (SUBE) approach that allows for the introduction of econometric analysis in the calculation of backward input–output multipliers of the Leontief-type quantity model, using rectangular supply and use tables. The SUBE approach does not require any kind of inverse matrix and incorporates the traditional approach (with square supply-use tables) as a particular case. The empirical analysis shows that the SUBE carbon dioxide multipliers for the EU27 are considerably lower than those obtained by the traditional Leontief inverse. In an application of the SUBE approach, the European economy appears to emit about 10% less carbon dioxide than in a situation in which it would not import any intermediate inputs from outside the EU27.     

中国农村金融集聚对农民消费影响的空间效应研究

研究目标:从空间维度考察农村金融集聚对农民消费的影响。研究方法:利用2009～2018年30个省份和四大区域的面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型,估计金融集聚的空间效应,即特定地区农民消费如何关联于本地区和邻近地区的金融集聚。研究发现:在全国省级层面上,农民消费不仅受本省农村金融集聚的显著影响,同时还受到邻近省份空间溢出的显著影响。分区域检验显示,一方面,东部和东北部地区农民消费受到域内金融集聚的影响显著,而中、西部地区则不显著。这一区域差异与农民收入对农民消费的影响具有一致性,但农民收入影响更大。另一方面,中部、西部和东北地区的农民消费受邻近区域金融集聚溢出效应的影响显著,但东部地区则不显著。研究表明,一是农村金融发展对农民消费具有重要影响,二是农民收入过低会弱化金融发展对消费促进效应,增加农民收入是提升消费的根本;三是加强落后地区与发达地区金融合作有利于实现共赢。研究创新:将空间效应引入农村金融集聚对农民消费影响的研究,探究了该影响的空间特征及关联性。研究价值:对农村金融集聚的消费促进效应做出了更全面的评价,为发挥农村金融促进农民消费的政策制定和实施提供抓手。     

A Simple Multi-Regional Input–Output Account for Waste Analysis

The present paper provides a simple multiregional input–output model for waste analysis with which to estimate intraregional and interregional effects of industrial wastes embodied in regional final consumptions. The empirical analyses using 1995 nine-regions input–output tables reveals the regional properties of the interregional linkage effects. The Kanto and Kinki regions remarkably control the industrial waste emissions and waste landfills within their own regions by importing waste-intensive intermediate goods and services from the other regions. The Chugoku and Shikoku regions greatly contributed to the production of the waste-intensive goods and services for the other regions, considering the waste emissions and waste landfills relative to the commodity production levels. We also find that the household consumption behaviour in other regions indirectly plays a more important role in waste emissions than the municipal waste disposal behaviour in the region in question at least in 1995.     

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper further develops a new methodology to estimate the wider, indirect impacts of major disasters, and applies it to the 2013 heavy flooding of southern and eastern Germany. We model the attempts of economic actors to continue their usual activities, as closely as possible, by minimizing the information gain between the pre- and post-disaster pattern of economic transactions of the economy at hand. Findings show that government support of local final demand substantially reduces the indirect losses of the floods, while having a disaster at the top of the business cycle increases them. Moreover, we find that assuming fixed trade origin shares and fixed industry market shares, as in all multiregional input–output models, leads to implausibly large estimates of the indirect losses.     

The Estimation of the Relationships between Water-Natural Gas Usage and Discharge-Emission Permission by Using Binary Logistic Model for the Industrial Establishments

The Thrace region is one of the most important agricultural and industrial regions in Turkey with its plain, deep and productive soil structure. The most important problem is industrial based water and air pollution in this region. In this study, 90 out of 541 establishments that use industrial water in the region were studied representing approximately 17% of the total population. The relationship between water-natural gas usage and discharge-emission permission is estimated by using the binary logistic model. In addition to the economic and social benefits, there are also economic and social losses due to environmental pollution because of the rapid industrialization in the Thrace Region. For example; the rice producers that use Ergene River for irrigation purposes lose efficiency and quality in various levels due to water pollution. According to the research results, an increase in wastewater is a factor that decreases the probability of obtaining discharge permission. Moreover, excessive use of underground water results in decreases in static and dynamic water levels in the region. Because of this result, it is more advantageous for sustainable water management to be directed to the sectors that do not use water for industrial purposes instead of the sectors that use water in their processes.     

MEASURING SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF SHOCKS TO THE ALASKA ECONOMY: AN INTER-REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX (IRSAM) MODEL APPROACH

An inter-regional social accounting matrix (IRSAM) model is used to estimate the spillover effects occurring between economies of two US regions – (i) Alaska, which depends heavily on imports of commodities and factors of production from outside the region, and (ii) the rest of the US (RoUS). Multiplier decomposition is used to calculate intra-regional multipliers and spillover effects between the two regions. Results show that a significant percentage (46.3–70.8%) of the total secondary impacts of a shock to Alaskan industries leaks out of Alaska and flows to the RoUS. An analysis of household multipliers indicates that over 60% of the total secondary effects of an increase in Alaska household income accrues to the RoUS households. Policymakers are concerned with identifying the magnitude, nature, and geographic distribution of economic impacts from the policies they implement. The IRSAM model provides the framework for a better understanding of the intra-regional and spillover effects of policies.     

New multi-regional input–output databases for Australia – enabling timely and flexible regional analysis

ABSTRACT

Decision-making at regional scales requires timely information. Within four months of the release of official national statistics, we have produced a time-series (2008–2015) of balanced sub-national, multi-regional supply-and-use tables (MR-SUT), integrated with a set of socio-economic and environmental accounts. This was achieved using the Australian IELab, where data used in this study are available (https://ielab.info/resources/91). Four multi-regional, environmentally extended supply-use tables regionalised in different ways were produced to demonstrate the flexibility of tailoring input–output models to specific research or policy questions. Results for satellite coefficients are sensitive to the chosen regional grouping and method for regionalisation. We demonstrate the relevance of such purpose-built information to government and corporate decision-makers by analysing the indirect economic and employment consequences of a slowdown of the mining boom in Western Australia. The demonstrated innovations in flexibility and timeliness will help move past some of the limitations that have historically hindered the uptake and utility of applied input–output analysis.     

中国民营企业技术效率测算与影响因素研究

以异质性随机前沿分析模型为基础,本文对中国2001～ 2011年各区域民营企业技术效率与相关影响因素进行了实证研究.结果表明:中国民营企业技术效率仅发挥了37％ ～ 46％的潜力,各区域民营企业技术效率大致呈“波浪式”发展态势,且东部区域民营企业技术效率显著高于中西部区域;地区财政扩张和对外开放度均能缓解民营企业技术效率约束,但后者也对东部地区民营企业产出的稳定性造成不利影响;通货膨胀和国有经济发展均制约民营企业技术效率提升,但影响其产出稳定性因区域差异而各有不同.最后就提升民营企业技术效率给出简要的对策建议.     

DO WATER-RICH REGIONS HAVE A COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN FOOD PRODUCTION? IMPROVING THE REPRESENTATION OF WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN ECONOMIC MODELS

With growing demand for fresh water and uncertain supplies, there is an increasing concern about future water scarcity. Since most freshwater withdrawals are for agriculture, reliance on water embodied in imported food (trade in ‘virtual water’) is a possible strategy to provide food to water-stressed regions while conserving their scarce supply for other purposes. To evaluate this proposition, we extend a model of interregional trade by (1) defining endowments of water that cannot be exceeded, (2) allowing simultaneous operation of rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and (3) distinguishing sub-regional endowments within a larger economic region. An application to the Mexican economy compares region-specific water abundance with economic comparative advantage under alternative scenarios. We conclude that the water-rich regions of Mexico are relatively high-cost producers of food and that they do not pick up the slack even when the lowest-cost Mexican regions are constrained by binding water constraints.     

An Empirical Model of Efficiency Analysis on Flood Prevention Investment in Japan

This paper aims to evaluate the comprehensive efficiency of flood disaster prevention investment from 1955 to 1999 by developing and applying an integrated evaluation model. Our analysis results have clarified some important issues currently being discussed in Japan. Firstly, the average values of normalized flood losses decreased greatly between the 1955-1961 period and the 1984-1999 period. Secondly, the ratio of human loss to total loss caused by floods in Japan may be less than 10%, based on the concept of the value of statistical life (VOSL) and values estimated from the risk-money tradeoff. The proportion of intangible effect to total loss increased from less than 10% before the 1970s to approximately 20% after that period. Finally, flood prevention investment in Japan effectively reduced losses caused by flooding before the 1960s; however, since the 1980s, investment has changed from an efficient mode to an inefficient mode, not only from the economic standpoint, but also from that of total flood loss saving.     

Regional factor specificity,wage differential and resource allocation

We developed a two-region, rigid-wage model incorporating features of a region-specific factor (in addition to the primary inputs) and an inter-regional wage differential. While full employment of capital is always maintained, labor, however, is subject to unemployment in both regions because of wage rigidity. The model was deployed to examine the effects of a change in the specific factor and a non-specific factor on regional resource allocation, output production and total employment. It is demonstrated that an increase in the factor specific to region 1 will result in a reallocation of resources from the second region to the first region and a decrease in the capital rentals in both regions. Thus, the output production will expand in region 1 at the expense of that in region 2. However, total employment in the nation may increase or decrease depending on whether or not the production in the second region is relatively capital intensive.     

Thy neighbor’s jobs: geography and labor market dynamics

This paper develops three explanations for the extent of correlation between neighboring geographic areas’ economic outcomes. Export-oriented firms in neighboring counties might independently produce similar goods, or might be linked directly through the production of intermediate inputs. In either case, counties are exposed to similar demand shocks. Finally, regions share markets for goods and services that are both produced and consumed locally. Empirical results suggest that much of the ‘risk’ associated with economic decline in neighboring regions can be attributed to industrial similarity rather than direct dependence of jobs in one area on jobs in another.     

Land Rents and Ecological Crisis:

A bstract . In the summer of 1997, the Oder Valley experienced an almost unprecedented flood. By calling in the army, the German government prevented the dykes from bursting, yet massive floods occurred in neighboring Poland, as the River Oder is now the border between Germany and Poland. Similar floods occurred in the Czech Republic and Romania. In October of 1997, a seemingly unrelated event occurred: The Nobel Prize in economics was awarded to Myron S. Scholes and Robert C. Merton for their pioneering contributions to the theory of how options are priced in financial markets. Ironically, the options contract model provides a solution to the Oder Valley crisis. This article ties the two events together and also draws on insights from the radical reformer, Henry George.     

SECTORS MAY USE MULTIPLE TECHNOLOGIES SIMULTANEOUSLY: THE RECTANGULAR CHOICE-OF-TECHNOLOGY MODEL WITH BINDING FACTOR CONSTRAINTS

We develop the rectangular choice-of-technology model with factor constraints, or RCOT, a linear programming input–output model for analysis of the economy of a single region. It allows for one or more sectors to operate more than one technology simultaneously, with the relatively lowest-cost one supplemented by others if it encounters a binding factor constraint. The RCOT model solves for sector outputs, goods prices that are set by the highest-cost technologies in use, and scarcity rents that correspond to binding factor constraints experienced by the lower-cost technologies. The model is motivated by the fact that mineral deposits of different qualities may be exploited simultaneously, as may primary and recycled sources for the same materials or irrigated and rain-fed techniques for producing the same crop. RCOT generalizes Carter's square choice-of-technology model, in particular adding the factor constraints that allow several alternatives to operate simultaneously. The Appendix gives a numerical example.     

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS IN DETERMINING LEVELS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT AND INCOME: A Model and Empirical Evidence from Kenya

Exports have long been assumed by many to be the most important variable in driving regional growth, although factors such as government expenditure, investment demand, and remittances, among others, have also been recognized as significant. In addition, supply-side constraints to the promotion of regional growth and development have recently received increased attention in the literature. This paper evaluates the relative importance of exports, investment demand, and remittances, as well as supply-constrained agricultural production, in determining levels of regional output, value added, and household income in a single region in Kenya. The analysis is based on a mixed endogenous/ exogenous model derived from a social accounting matrix (SAM) which allows for incorporation of both demand and supply-side considerations. The paper finds that exports are, in fact, the most important factor in explaining regional output and wage income in the region studied, although not overwhelmingly so. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the importance of supply-constrained agricultural production as a determinant of income at the household level.     

Optimal portfolio choice with wash sale constraints

We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors is to a large extent driven by the desire to realize those losses, either immediately by sharply decreasing the holding of assets carrying unrealized losses, or indirectly by increasing such holdings in order to prepare for a decrease in a future period to earn the tax rebate payment. Our findings are robust to increasing the number of trading dates and introducing a second risky asset and a correlation structure.