Trade liberalization and political support in transition economies

Most transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe have rather surprisingly resisted protectionist pressures-at least during early stages of reform-and pursued fairly liberal trade policies. In this paper, trade policy during transition is explained from a political economy perspective. It is shown that pursuing liberal trade policies can be a rational strategy of reform politicians, maximizing the probability of electoral success.     

The Economic Efficiency of Policy Reform and Partial Market Liberalization under Transaction Costs

The article presents an integrated analysis of the effects of domestic and trade policy reform on resource allocation and welfare under transaction costs. It develops a general multiagent, multicommodity model, where transaction costs are the costs of resources used in the exchange process. The influence of domestic and trade policy (including both price and quantity instruments) on distorted market equilibrium is analysed. Alternative concepts of distorted equilibrium are presented and investigated. They provide a basis for evaluating the effects of multilateral partial market liberalization on resource allocation and welfare under transaction costs. New conditions are derived under which multilateral policy reforms generate Pareto improvements.     

Japan's New Foreign Economic Policy: A Shift Toward a Strategic and Activist Model?*

This article analyzes key departures in Japanese foreign economic policy: the development of an extensive network of free trade agreements thereby abandoning the exclusive focus on the multilateral system as the vehicle for trade liberalization, and the revamping of the official development assistance (ODA) program by slashing its budget, emphasizing national interests in aid giving, and phasing out yen loans to China. We argue that the remarkable degree of policy activism in both trade and ODA represents the Japanese government's attempt to respond strategically to common challenges: domestically the economic recession, internationally the pressure for policy convergence and competition with China. However, in both issue areas the ability of the government to embark on swift policy changes has been compromised by domestic politics: opposition from vested interests and politicization of policy‐making, bureaucratic sectionalism, and weak executive leadership. We conclude with some policy recommendations to improve the coherence of foreign economic policy formulation in Japan.     

The choice of trade regime: delayed reform under productivity fluctuations and cost of structural change

Despite the advantages of international trade, a number of countries have stuck to restricted trade regimes, allowing the productivity gap between themselves and the “trading” world to become huge before turning to a more outward oriented trade policy. As a supplement to the existing explanations for the hesitation to change trade regime, we present a model where the international productivity development shared by open economies, is uncertain. Due to uncertainty, it might be optimal to wait and maybe exercise the option to change trade regime later, i.e. to delay a trade reform.     

Abenomics and Japan's Trade Policy in a New Era

Trade policy, in particular, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), has been a centerpiece of the Abe administration's economic strategy. The TPP's contributions to Japan's growth strategy include: (i) creating trade and investment opportunities abroad for Japanese companies through ambitious liberalization targets; (ii) advancing domestic reforms – with the largest service and agricultural liberalization commitments to date; and (iii) increasing bargaining leverage in other trade negotiations. But the domestic reform goals of Abenomics in agriculture have come up short due to opposition from domestic lobbies. American trade politics – which culminated in the US withdrawal from the TPP – have upended the goals of trade policy under Abenomics. Japan's best option in this new environment is to deliver on high quality, multi‐party trade agreements: concluding negotiations with Europe; scaling up the ambition of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership; and salvaging a TPP 11. The merits of a bilateral free trade agreement with the USA will depend on how the Trump administration operationalizes its America First policy.     

国际金融危机与我国宏观经济政策反思

国际金融危机使得全球贸易与金融旧秩序被重新审视,新的变革即将开始。面对国际局势,我国必须立足国情,认真分析与反思当前一揽子经济刺激计划,在政策方针和微观经济活动之间建立有效的宏观政策传导机制,以政府投资引导和激发民间投资,改革阻碍发展的体制机制约束,尽早考虑大规模计划的退出机制,为获得长期发展战略竞争优势未雨绸缪,在国际政策博弈中牢牢争取把握主动。     

从资源禀赋角度看我国贸易顺差

高额贸易顺差的连续出现，给经济政策的制定带来了诸多难题。本文分析了我国当前贸易顺差的结构特点，借助资源禀赋与贸易顺差的相关理论，剖析了顺差形成的内在原因。本文认为，相对较低的资源价格是形成我国贸易顺差的主要原因。积极推动金融体制改革，完善要素市场是解决顺差的重要途径。     

影响我国环境库兹涅茨曲线的外贸与环境政策分析

环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)体现了一国经济增长与环境污染的关系.本文以1990～2005年我国工业污染的数据为基础,描绘出我国EKC是"N"字型波浪式上升的,阐述了产生这一特点的贸易政策和环境政策的影响因素,肯定了政府的环保政策对于环境恶化的控制效果,但认为政府的直接干预只是协调经济增长与环境污染关系的外部手段,提高经济运行效率才是解决问题的根本途径.     

Government interventions and productivity growth

This article investigates the impact of government industrial policy and trade protection of the manufacturing sector in Korea. Empirical results are provided, using four-period panel data for the years 1963 through 1983, for thirty-eight Korean industries in which trade protection reduced growth rates of labor productivity and total factor productivity, while industrial policies, such as tax incentives and subsidized credit, were not correlated with total factor productivity growth in the promoted sectors. The evidence thus implies that less government intervention in trade is linked to higher productivity growth.     

转型背景下中国经济运行的复杂性及其政策协调选择

改革开放20多年来,中国经济取得了令人嘱目的成就.然而,随着进程的加快和改革的深入,一些深层次矛盾也日益凸现.这些矛盾主要表现为:产能过剩与通货膨胀的双重压力、流动性过剩和对外贸易顺差的不断加剧以及经济增长和失业率居高不下并存.这些矛盾的存在,集中体现了转型时期中国经济运行的特殊复杂性.这些矛盾并存所产生的影响,充分显示了解决问题的紧迫性.我们应通过财政政策、货币政策、产业政策、汇率政策和外贸政策的相互配合使用,实现宏观经济的平稳发展和市场化改革的有序进行.     

促进中国民营企业发展的支持性公共政策措施

民营企业的在发展过程中,存在着法律上的不公,准入行业、土地使用制度上的限制,税收政策上的不平等,融资渠道不畅,政府职能机构不到位、制度不健全和政策环境不理想等障碍。这严重地阻碍了民营企业的发展。因此,在法律上给民营企业一个公平的地位,取缔民营企业准入行业上的限制性政策,畅通民营企业的融资渠道,改革现有的用地制度、税收制度,转换政府职能,对民营企业的健康、快速发展具有重要意义,这不仅关系到繁荣中国经济,完善社会主义市场经济体制,而且关系到具有中国特色的社会主义事业的发展。     

中国国有商业银行财务重组 的模式比较及政策约束

在国有商业银行改革中，财务重组既是改革的起点，也是制约其后续改革的重要因素。本文以损失承担与资金注入主体的变化为切入点，对1998年以来国有商业银行财务重组模式及其变迁作了比较制度分析，思考了其政策约束效应。本文的结论是在财政部和央行交替主导四大行财务重组的背景下，由于重组过度依赖国有商业银行自身，“好银行/坏银行”模式的实际效果受到抑制，进而导致国有商业银行财务重组并非实质完成。这已成为利率市场化、银行运营市场化及AMC转型等金融改革的现实约束因素。     

Merger Profitability and Trade Policy

We study the profitability incentives for merger and the endogenous industry structure in a strategic trade policy environment. Merger changes the strategic trade policy equlilibrium. We show that merger can be profitable and welfare enhancing, even though it would not be profitable in a laissez‐faire economy. A key element is a change in the governments’ incentives to give subsidies to their local firms. National merger induces more strategic trade policy, whereas international merger does not.     

Does Trade Liberalisation Promote Economic Development?

The last twenty years have seen an extraordinary number of trade liberalisation episodes in developing countries. Some have been voluntary, most have been policy conditioned under the aegis of the Bretton Woods agencies. This paper begins by setting out the background to these trade reform programmes and details their ingredients. It then goes on to review the evidence extant on liberalisation and growth and reports new evidence. The latter suggests that liberalisation does tend to enhance growth, albeit with a lag. The paper concludes with an analysis of the lessons learned from experience with liberalisation in terms of credibility, timing and sequencing.     

美国、欧盟、日本的“绿箱”支持政策及其评价

随着农业贸易自由化的推进,国内农业支持政策对于提高农业竞争力和解决"三农"问题至关重要。自1995年以来,WTO成员为遵循《农业协议》的要求,通过调整国内农业政策,将国内农业支持逐渐由"黄箱"转向"绿箱"。通过对WTO成员中大量使用"绿箱"支出的三个发达成员——美国、欧盟、日本的国内农业支持政策改革及其"绿箱"政策实施情况的考察,可以看出,由于"绿箱"补贴增加了农民收入并使农民面临的风险减少,会刺激农民进行生产性投入,增加农业生产,加剧国际农产品市场竞争的不公平性,使发展中国家的农业生产者在国际竞争中处于不利地位。因此,WTO成员在实现农业支持向"绿箱"转变的同时,应对其补贴总量进行控制和削减,减少变相的价格支持。     

From Receding to Reseeding: Industrial Policy,Governance Strategies and Neoliberal Resilience in Post-crisis Britain

ABSTRACT

Industrial policy has been on the agenda of British policy elites since the 2008 financial crisis, particularly since Theresa May became Prime Minister in 2016. This has been seen as a challenge to pre-crisis norms of economic governance associated with neoliberalism. This article explores key aspects of industrial policy development in post-crisis Britain – new forms of vertical support for industry, local government reform, and the public financing of private sector R&D – in order to sketch a new understanding of political and ideological change. It focuses on the institutional mechanisms through which industrial strategy will ostensibly be implemented, including subnational and private spheres of governance. The article argues that recent industrial policy developments do not represent the receding of neoliberalism, but rather have provided opportunities for the reseeding of neoliberal norms in British economic statecraft. The strategy has reinforced forms of state machinery through which pre-crisis elite practice can be maintained and legitimated. By demonstrating that the apparent revival of state intervention in the wake of capitalist crises must not be assumed automatically to challenge pre-crisis economic orders, and highlighting the crucial role of exigent political circumstances, the article makes an important contribution to the literature on neoliberal resilience.     

Public Spending on Industries,Private Investment and the Timing of International Trade Policy Changes

This paper incorporates public spending on industries (in terms of a durable public intermediate good) into a two-country, two-period, and two-sector, model with international labour mobility. The relationship between international trade policies, private investment, and public spending on industries has been examined. Due to international labour mobility, a policy change in one country also affect the relevant variables in the other country. The timing of the policy change is shown to be ciritical. [H30, F20]     

Export diversification in a transitioning economy

How does the process of export diversification take place in an economy in transition, especially in light of government policy aimed at trade liberalization? This article examines this question by considering a directed policy effort by Syria – an economy in transition from both economic centralization and resource dependence – to liberalize its trade between 2001 and 2008. In addition to documenting the patterns of diversification at the aggregate level since the implementation of the policy, we also examine factors that are related to diversification at the sectoral level. Our findings suggest that, while Syria has achieved reasonably rapid export diversification, this may to a large extent be the result of structural transformations in the economy, and that further diversification may require continued policy reform designed to strengthen Syria's weak institutional and business environment.     

Understanding China’s Foreign Trade Policy: A Literature Review

China has continued to experience rapid growth in its foreign trade since the implementation of its reform and opening-up policies. In recent years, the country has become the world’s largest exporter and second largest importer of goods and commodities. China’s trade policy has also gradually been transforming from protectionism to open trade. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive survey on the literature of China’s trade policy. The review covers (1) export and import policies, (2) tariff and non-tariff barriers, and (3) policy effects and motivations behind the policy design. This paper also reports on important topics and issues that deserve more research attention.     

The Impact of Sector-Specific and Economy-Wide Policy Reforms on the Agricultural Sector in Brazil: 1980–98

This article analyzes the impact of policy reforms and changing macroeconomic conditions on the Brazilian agricultural sector. It stresses four issues: events outside of agriculture were central to the performance of the sector and to the timing and sequence of policy reform; reform involved far more than trade liberalization; the impact of reform on input markets and productivity was key for understanding the period; and policy reform had a highly differentiated impact on the sector. As a result of the reforms, agriculture became the most dynamic sector of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s. Policies still in need of reform are identified. (JEL O13 , Q18 )