中国城市流动人口:特征及其检验

根据北京、沈阳、无锡、东莞和石家庄等5城市流动人口的调查问卷,描述了中国城市流动人口的主要特征,并对有关结论进行了计量检验.实证结果表明:在迁移距离上,我国远距离流动的人口远远多于近距离流动人口;在性别结构上,流动人口中男性的比例高于女性;在迁移动因上,20世纪80年代初的流动人口中很大比例是婚姻迁入或随迁家属,到了90年代以后,流动人口的很大比例是出于务工经商的原因;在教育回报上,流动人口的受教育年限每增加一年,小时工资就增加大约八个百分点;在工作经验回报上,流动人口的工作经验每增加一年,小时工资就增加大约五个百分点.     

FDI、异质性劳动力市场与城市工资提升

外商直接投资的迅速增长和户籍制度导致的劳动力市场异质性是中国市场化转型中的重要现象,也是影响劳动者工资的关键因素。因此,本文结合跨国公司理论和二元劳动力市场理论,利用CHIP2007微观数据全面研究了跨国公司对不同户籍劳动者工资提升的作用机制和影响。结果显示:跨国公司对城镇和流动人口的工资均有显著作用,城市外商直接投资存量增加10%,流动人口工资提升1.8%,城镇劳动者工资提升2.9%;在劳动者工资获得机制方面,跨国公司增强了劳动者职业地位回报和人力资本回报,其对流动人口的作用高于对城镇人口的作用。     

我国人力资本流动特征及其对地区经济发展的影响

本文通过对近几年我国的人力资本的流动显示的特征进行分析总结,发现在经济发达的区域其人流流动比例较高,反之在经济欠发达地区的人口流动显示不够集中,同时流动人口在以下的几个方面显示出了较为明显的地域差别,包括其平均接受教育的年限、年龄的构成以及性别之间的比例.经济的发展离不开人力资本,人力资本对其有着明显的促进作用,根据研究显示,当人力资本增加每一个百分点的时候,那么经济就会随之增长0.677个百分点,而且人力资本的流动对于地区的影响是不同的,具有差异性,体现在空间与时间上.     

大城市流动人口"带动迁移"特征分析——以上海市闵行区为例

20世纪90年代中期以来,伴随着流动人口大量涌入城市,被带动迁入的少年儿童和老人规模也日益增大,对流入地和流出地均产生一定的影响.借助问卷调查资料,以带动迁移主体为研究对象,在界定带动迁移率的基础上,从流动人口的年龄、来沪时间长短、受教育程度、从业状况、收入水平五个方面考察带动迁移行为发生概率及带动迁移能力,以期解析大城市带动迁移行为的一般特征.     

大城市流动人口“带动迁移”特征分析——以上海市闵行区为例

20世纪90年代中期以来，伴随着流动人口大量涌入城市，被带动迁入的少年儿童和老人规模也日益增大，对流入地和流出地均产生一定的影响。借助问卷调查资料，以带动迁移主体为研究对象，在界定带动迁移率的基础上，从流动人口的年龄、来沪时间长短、受教育程度、从业状况、收入水平五个方面考察带动迁移行为发生概率及带动迁移能力，以期解析大城市带动迁移行为的一般特征。     

外来民工对北京的负面影响

北京作为首都,以其特有的城市性质和优越的物质、文化条件,尤其是近两三年城市建设的迅猛发展,人民生活水平的大幅度提高,对流动人口的需求和吸引力达到了空前高涨的程度,成为流动人口聚集的热点城市。从八十年代末期开始至今,流动人口占全市人口的比例一直占10%以上。并且呈逐年上升趋势,1992年增长到150万。北京市流动人口分为短期流动人口和长期流动人口。短期流动人口主要来自城市,以观光旅游出差学习为目的,占20%左右;长期流动人口主要是来自农村,以务工经商赚钱为目的,占80%左右。据调查,长期流动人口主要来自三种地区,一是远郊区县、邻近省份,如来自河北就占三成;二是劳动力过剩的贫困地区,如河南、安徽、四川等省也占三成;三是商品经济发达的地区,如仅来自浙江省的就大约占近10%。流动人口是城市发展的催化剂,北京市近几年的快速发展离不开外来劳工、这已是有目共睹。早成定     

数字

0.8%国家统计局发布的2013年农民工监测调查报告显示,与2008年相比,农民工权益保障取得了较为明显的进展。参加养老保险、工伤保险、医疗保险、失业保险和生育保险的比例分别提高了5.9、4.4、4.5、5.4和4.6个百分点;工资拖欠问题也得到有效抑制,工资被拖欠的外出农民工所占比重由2008年的4．1％下降到0．8％，下降了3．3个百分点。2013年外出农民工权益保障情况有喜有忧。中西部地区农民工快速增加，而权益保障相对滞后，并且个别行业农民工权益保障水平低，存在明显“短腿”。建筑业与制造业相比，工资被拖欠的比重高0．9个百分点。     

农民工与城市职工的工资差异及其分解――人力资本与歧视的贡献

文章关注城市职工和农民工两个群体工资差异的大小和来源。利用CGSS2013数据和均值分解法,文章考察了人力资本和歧视的贡献。研究发现：在实现就业以后,两个群体的工资差异主要来自于特征差异,歧视并不是一个十分严重的问题;对农民工群体的歧视主要存在于就业实现的过程中,就业歧视解释了两个群体大约一半的工资差异;教育从特征差异、回报率差异、就业概率差异三个方面为工资差异做出了贡献;工作经验在工资决定中具有逆歧视作用。我们的研究意味着,要缩小两个群体的工资差异必须从缩小前市场差别开始,并通过促进市场竞争、明确歧视的实践标准、简化反歧视的诉讼程序等措施来减少就业歧视的贡献。     

流动人口生育意愿、性别偏好及其决定因素——来自全国四个主要城市化地区12城市大样本调查的证据

基于课题组2009年进行的全国四个主要城市化地区12个大中小城市流动人口调查的微观数据,考察了流动人口的生育意愿和性别偏好,特别是研究了影响流动人口生育意愿的决定因素。流动人口同城市人口在生育数量偏好上已经不存在明显差距,但性别偏好观念上仍有显著差异;较农村人口,流动人口生育数量偏好明显要小,男孩偏好也要弱。流动人口的年龄、性别、婚姻状况、受教育程度、健康状况、工作类型和居住类型对生育意愿有显著影响。     

卫计委报告加大推行新型城镇化战略的必要性

新型城镇化是中国新一届政府着力推进的发展战略。按照中央领导的设想,新型城镇化应当是人的城镇化,落足于农业转移人口的市民化。日前,国家卫生计生委发布《中国流动人口发展报告2013》称,中国流动人口已达到2.36亿,每六人中就有一个是流动人口。卫计委流动人口司司长王谦介绍,目前流动人口平均年龄约28岁,超过一半的劳动年龄流动人口是80后。越来越多的新生代流动人口来到城市,不仅为了打工挣钱,超七成人希望落户城市,在城市谋求发展,并融入这个城市。报告显示,超六成的已婚新生代流动人口与全部核心家庭成员在流入地共同居住。这些80后的年轻人,选择的流动方式正由生存型向发展型转变：进入城市不仅是为了挣钱,对未来发展有更多新期待;流动方式由个体劳动力流动向家庭化迁移转变;流动形态由“钟摆式”向在城市稳定生活、稳定工作转变。超过六成的80后流动人口,最近3年没换过工作。报告分析,家庭化迁移使流动人口在流入地更容易产生归属感,有利于增强其幸福感。报告建议,政府部门制定流动人口相关的政策要适应家庭化流动趋势,满足流动人口家庭而非个人的需求。报告还显示,流动人口家庭的生育率与总人口平均生育率相差无几,他们不是所谓的“超生大军”。中国流动人口早已不是简单的“农民工”概念,这个庞大的群体,越来越多元化,素质也越来越高,生育意愿和实际生育率则明显下降。在安邦（ANBOUND）的研究团队看来,卫计委的报告无疑加大了推行新型城镇化战略的必要性。如何将这部分流动人口在城市中安顿下来,让他们享受到同等的公共福利,将成为中国政府迫切需要解决的问题。     

城市经济转型时期人力资本回报率研究

基于Mincer基本模型和扩展模型的估算结果显示 ,中国城市地区的教育回报率比其他发展中国家的平均水平低 ,但这一回报率在不断上升 ;职工工资收入达到最高水平所需工作的年限在下降 ,工作年限的边际回报率在下降 ,尤其是女性工作年限的边际回报率下降速度更快。在 1986 /1987年 ,广东城市职工平均工资收入比湖南和四川高出 30 % ,而在 1993/1994年 ,广东城市职工平均工资收入比湖南和四川高出 70 % ,表明地区收入不平等的现象在扩大。令人费解的是 ,广东省的教育回报率并不高 ,尽管在这期间广东省男女两性的工作经验回报率大大下降。文章还发现 ,无论是工资性别歧视 ,还是职业性别歧视都似乎存在于中国城市的劳动力市场中     

资本回报率、人力资本投资与收入不平等——基于Galor-Zeira模型的扩展

资本回报率下降对人力资本投资、收入不平等程度有较大影响。本文将可变资本回报率加入Galor-Zeira模型,理论推导发现:收入不平等陷阱并非不可逾越的障碍。当技能劳动力工资高于受教育固定成本时,随着资本回报率下降,接受教育的遗赠临界水平将降低,更多家庭将发现投资人力资本是有利的,稳态的技能劳动力比例将提高。在当前资本回报率下降的大背景下,提高技能劳动力工资、降低受教育成本、对教育贷款实施财政减免优惠、为农村中等教育支出减负和提升农村教育质量、倡导节俭和重视遗赠的文化氛围在长期都有助于提高技能劳动力比重以及缓和收入不平等。     

The effect of education and experience on self-employment success

The impact of education on the business success of an entrepreneur has been the subject of much discussion and speculation in both the popular and academic press. The literature is full of folklore focusing on the high-school drop out who made it big in the business world armed with an education from the school of hard knocks. Until recently this was part of the myth surrounding entrepreneurship. The myth takes shape in three basic areas. The first looks at the entrepreneur's level of education relative to the general public. The second area addresses the effect of education on people becoming entrepreneurs on a macro level. Do people with higher levels of education start more businesses than people with less education, does it increase the probability of becoming an entrepreneur? The third area concerns the micro-economic effect on individual entrepreneurs. Does education help an entrepreneur succeed?Past research on education and entrepreneurship consists mostly of institutional studies at universities with established programs. These offer good support for the outcome of educational programs. However, these studies are poorly circulated and seldom published because of the limited sample sizes (McMullan (1988) summarized several such studies). In this study the literature is reviewed in three areas mentioned above and new information on the relationships between education, experience, and self-employment is provided.The empirical part of this study examines the effect of education and experience using U.S. census data. Self-employment is used as a surrogate for entrepreneurship and the analysis controlled for farmers and professionals (medical doctors, lawyers, accountants, etc.) so that it would more closely fit our conception of an entrepreneur. Earnings potential was used as a measure of success. We recognize that success is a subjective experience based on one's expectations and actual outcomes; however, we believe that earnings provided a global indicator of success that is quantifiable relative to the sample used. Four specific hypotheses were generated and tested using the data.The first hypothesis (Self-employed have more years of formal education than those who do not work for themselves.) was confirmed with the years of education for the self-employed being 14.57 years for all workers, 14.71 years for males, and 14.13 years for female workers. Wage and salaried workers came in nearly one full year lower with: 13.58 years for all worked, 13.73 for male workers, and 13.40 for female workers.Hypothesis two (The number of years of formal education will increase the probability of becoming self-employed.) was supported with the probability of becoming self employed increasing by 0.8% for each year of education providing a significant relationship (t = 32.11 for all workers, t = 21.95 for males, and t = 20.76 for females, p < .0001 for all three).Hypothesis three (The relationship between years of formal education and success of the self-employed, as well as the general population will be positive and significant.) was supported using the “Beta” coefficients in a “Probit” regression model, indicating that self-employment and wage and salaried earnings increase significantly for each year of education. Self-employment earnings increased $1207.63 a year for each year of education ($1212.76 for males and $414.81 for females). Wage and salaried workers earnings increased $825.99a year for each year of education ($1023.33 for males and $369.37 for females).Hypothesis four (The relationship between experience and self-employment success will be positive and significant, but weaker than the impact of education.) was supported. All self-employed workers, both male and female, had over two years more experience than their wage and salaried counterparts. There is a strong positive relationship between self-employment and both experience and earnings with the exception of self-employed females whose experience did not significantly impact their earnings.In conclusion, a general education has a strong positive influence on entrepreneurship in terms of becoming self-employed and success. Experience has a similar relationship although not as strong. Future studies need to examine the impact of specific types of education, such as business school or entrepreneurship classes, on the entrepreneurial outcomes in the studies.     

Liquidity-constrained migrants

Liquidity constraints represent a major obstacle for potential migrants trying to meet the high cost of undocumented international migration. Some cover it by borrowing from a smuggling organization with a commitment to repay the loan by working in the destination country as bonded laborers. This paper compares alternative ways of financing migration and shows that debt bondage is optimal only if the international wage differential is sufficiently large in relation to migration costs. Tougher border controls as well as internal enforcement measures can be expected to reduce the incidence of debt-bonded relative to self-financed migration, although they may not necessarily lower the overall inflow of illegal aliens.     

进出口贸易对相对工资差距的影响

本文以我国有进行进出口贸易的32个细分行业为研究对象,时间跨度为2002～2009年,采用面板模型实证检验进出口贸易对相对工资差距的影响。实证结论显示:在不考虑行业特征的情形下:第一,行业的进出口贸易总额引起相对工资差距的缩小;第二,在将进出口贸易分解为进口贸易和出口贸易的情形下,出口贸易增加引起相对工资差距的缩小,进口贸易增加引起相对工资差距的扩大;在考虑行业特征的情形下:第一,出口扩大工资差距,进口没有影响。第二,行业要素密集度的不同会导致出口贸易和进口贸易对相对工资差距产生不同的影响。     

How Do Migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean Fare in the US Labour Market?

This paper discusses the causes of mass migration from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to the United States in recent decades and how these migrants have fared in US labour markets. The evidence shows that LAC migrants have higher unemployment rates and substantially lower wages than other immigrants and natives. Furthermore, the relative wages of LAC migrants have been declining sharply over the last 25 years. The most significant factor explaining the latter is the lower (and declining) educational attainment of LAC migrants relative to other immigrants and natives, compounded by the rising rates of return to education in the US.     

Structural Change,Economic Crisis and International Labour Migration in East Asia

Increased international labour migration was one important dimension of structural change and globalisation in East Asia from the mid 1980s. Large international movements of mainly unskilled contract labour occurred in response to widening wage gaps between more and less developed countries in the region as the former experienced rapid structural change. Labour importing countries increasingly relied on unskilled migrant workers in less preferred jobs, in both export‐oriented and non‐tradable goods industries. The Asian economic crisis dramatically influenced the context in which international labour mobility had occurred in the pre‐crisis period. Important issues included a possible reversal in role of international migration in structural change, both among unskilled contract workers and more skilled migrants, and replacement of migrants by unemployed local workers. The paper argues that the Asian economic crisis did not reverse the fundamental trend toward greater reliance on unskilled migrant workers in agriculture, manufacturing and service industries. Business and professional migration remained significant and even rose in some countries during the crisis. However, several countries were forced to develop a more coherent policy towards migrant workers, in light of the social impact of the crisis.     

Economic Crises and Migration: Learning from the Past and the Present

This article considers the effects of past economic crises and cycles on migration with a view predicting the effects of the crisis of 2008–10. It then uses very recent data to test these as hypotheses. It examines the great migration to the New World in the nineteenth century (including in response to the Irish potato blight) in some detail because this was largely unhampered by changes in migration policy. It then more briefly looks at twentieth‐century experience – the 1930s, the 1970s and Asia in 1997–98. The hypotheses tested are that migration is reduced by downturns in destination countries but hardly affected by the cycle in home countries; that such downturns also lead to some return migration; that existing migrants suffer the effects of downturns more severely than natives and that although downturns may affect the timing of migration policy changes, the latter owe more to underlying secular forces than to short‐term shocks. Data from 2008–09 suggest support for each of these hypotheses.     

贸易自由化对中国城镇劳动力市场性别歧视的影响

贸易自由化既可缩小也可扩大性别工资差。绝大多数实证研究,例如Oosdendorp(2004),都采用的是较宏观的行业加总数据,并着重于职业性别工资差。然而,行业加总的职业工资不能控制教育水平和经验变量,因此很难判断性别工资差的变化到底来自个人特征因素还是贸易自由化。文章运用中国城镇居民家庭的微观数据,运用difference-in-difference的方法,在消除了不随时间改变的固定效应和随时间变化的系统冲击的基础上,检验了1988年到1995年中国第一次贸易自由化兴起时期,贸易开放度的变化对不同教育水平的性别工资差的影响。结果显示,这一时期贸易开放度和性别工资差之间的相互关系主要来源于进口开放度的变化:随着进口开放度的上升,低教育人群的性别工资差显著扩大,而高教育人群的性别工资差却呈现相反趋势。出口开放度的上升对低教育人群的性别工资差没有显著影响,但与进口开放度的上升一样,它缩小了高教育人群的性别工资差。