Analysis of tax effort in WAEMU: How important are institutional/administrative reforms?

This paper examines, in depth, the hypotheses explaining the tax effort of seven West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 1996–2018. The studies of Karakaplan and Kutlu were applied to the stochastic tax frontier model. This provides a new method for analyzing tax effort that solves potential endogeneity problems, especially those of income. This study confirms the positive impact of income, trade openness, urbanization, government capital spending and anticorruption on tax revenue mobilization, while the size of the agricultural sector has a negative impact on tax revenue. On the other hand, reforms of tax institutions have no effect on tax effort. The average tax revenue of the countries of the WAEMU is 11.34 and the average tax effort is estimated at 0.7901 over the period 1996–2018. Thus, these countries could achieve a tax revenue to GDP ratio of 13.72% if they fully exploit their potential.     

China’s fare share? The growth of Chinese exports in world trade

The growth of Chinese exports in market share over the past two decades is a singular event in the history of world trade. Using data from 1995–2010, we document this growth in a variety of ways. We show that the expanded trade is pervasive. Virtually every country in the world has seen China claim a larger share of its import market. Then, we use Constant Market Share analysis to determine which country or countries have lost market share as China’s trade has grown. Contrary to much discussion in the popular press, we find strong evidence that other developing countries have not seen export shares fall as a result of China’s gains. Rather, our results suggest that China’s share growth has come largely at the expense of exporters based in developed countries, especially Japan and the United States.     

Past and future of the labor force in emerging Asian economies

In this paper we investigate the determinants of past changes in the labor force of 12 emerging Asian countries, and attempt to make projections of the labor force in those countries for the period 2010–2030. Results from our regression analysis of the labor force indicate that the wage earnings elasticity of labor supply is negative, albeit insignificant, for men and significantly positive for women, and it has a significantly positive association with educational level and a negative one with age. We also find that per capita income shows a negative relationship with the labor force in general for younger age groups and older age groups, and more capital-intensive countries have smaller female labor force. Using extrapolation, the paper predicts that the labor force will increase in all 12 countries during the first two decades of the period 2010–2030, but will eventually decline in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. The paper also makes projections of the unemployment rate and the average working hours in those countries.     

Biases in the allocation of foreign aid: Some new evidence

The purpose of the paper is to examine the pattern of bilateral and multilateral foreign aid allocations during the 1970s. Cross-section and pooled regressions for a set of roughly 90 countries where aid allocations have been relatively free of gross political overtones confirm the well-known bias in per capita aid flows against populous countries, butdo not provide evidence of a middle income bias. Instead, regressions on 1976–1978 aid flows and per capita incomes of recipient countries seem to suggest a low income bias, i.e. low income countries received more aid per capita than middle income countries. Yet, there was asample of extremely poor countries which remained neglected in foreign aid allocations.     

The rise and fall of worldwide income inequality, 1820–2035

The development process and the demographic changes that are a central element of it explain both the nearly two centuries of increasing income inequality prior to 2000 and the reversal of this trend that followed. There are at least four phases of the development process: (1) Malthusian pre-development, (2) initial growth, (3) improved productivity, and (4) receding growth. Prior to the industrial revolution, the entire world was in the Malthusian Phase 1. During 1820–1950, about 20 countries, mostly in Western Europe, North America, and Oceania, moved out of Phase 1 and began to grow more rapidly. But, per capita income levels in the rest of the world continued to stagnate and worldwide income inequality widened continuously for at least 150 years following the Industrial Revolution. Around 1960, developing countries began to escape the Malthusian trap and move into Phase 2 of development. By the latter part of the 20th century, many developing countries were achieving growth rates equal to or greater than the high-income countries, slowing the rise in inequality. By 2000–2015 most developing countries were in either Phases 2 or 3 of development, while most of the high-income countries were moving into Phase 4, leading to a sharp reduction in worldwide income inequality. The recent reductions in worldwide income inequality are likely to continue in the near term because of the continuation of the more favorable demographic changes in developing compared to high-income countries.     

The causative factors of environmental degradation in South Asia

Urbanization, economic growth, and intensity of electricity consumption are the important causative factors of environmental degradation in South Asia. The present study has revealed this while investigating the relationship between the level of CO₂ emissions and important economic variables in the context of five South Asian countries. Panel data are used for this study over the period 1974–2017. Panel co-integration tests and the Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (PARDL) model are applied for empirical analysis. Robust results of the analysis indicate that urbanization, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the intensity of electricity consumption are contributing factors to carbon emissions. Based on the results of the Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality test, it is concluded that there is a bi-directional causal link between urbanization and CO₂ emissions and unidirectional causal links from GDP to CO₂ emissions, from GDP to urbanization, and from the intensity of electricity consumption to urbanization. This study focuses on planned urbanization, eco-efficient income growth, and sensible use of electricity to control CO₂ emissions in this region. Considering the nature of these developing economies in South Asia, collaborative measures and strategic planning are suggested on a regional basis to address the concerns in the above-mentioned areas that minimize carbon emissions and thereby aid sustainable development in this region.     

中国实现非农化所面临的投资约束及对策分析

随着我国农业劳动生产率的提高,农业部门现有劳动力出现了大量过剩,再加上每年农村新增劳动力,导致农业劳动力的边际产出一直处于负增长状态。因此,要让农民分享到经济增长的好处,提高农民收入水平,唯一的选择是非农化,即将农业劳动力向非农产业转移,两者之间如何选择也一直是学术界争论的焦点。非农化的实现主要有两种形式：城市化和发展小城镇。文章从城市化的投资约束的角度论述了发展小城镇依然是实现非农化的必由之路,并提出了若干对策与建议。     

中国经济如何跨越中高等收入陷阱

我国2010年人均GDP已经突破3945美元,根据世界银行对世界各经济体的最新分类标准,我国已经步入中高等收入国家行列,但与此同时我国的收入差距不断拉大。如何将收入差距控制在合理范围内,成功地跨越中高等收入陷阱是当前的紧要问题。本文通过对我国人均GDP及其基尼系数的协整检验发现,我国经济增长与收入分配之间存在一种稳定的长期均衡关系。只有合理的处理我国的收入分配差距问题才能达到经济的持续发展,从而跨越高中等收入陷阱。     

Distance to Growing Markets and Sub‐Saharan African Exports*

Abstract: A typical person in sub‐Saharan Africa is a long way from world markets and is further from world markets now than in 1980. This partly reflects slower growth within Africa than for the world as a whole. Despite slower growth in Africa, African exports have become increasingly regionalized. By 2005, a country in Africa typically exported more than twice as much to a country in its own region as would be expected based on economic size and bilateral distance. This regionalization was not present in the early 1980s and has become stronger over time. We find evidence of positive neighborhood effects through exports, but sub‐Saharan countries benefit less from growth in their own region than this typical relationship indicates. Given the small share of exports destined to their neighbors, low‐income countries in sub‐Saharan Africa experience relatively modest export growth from growth in the region. These factors imply that African countries are unlikely to pull each other out of poverty and a regional focus may be less effective than a focus on countries outside of the region.     

Is there a poverty trap for developing countries? Polarization: Reality or myth

A general view that as between countries ‘the rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer’ supported in the development literature by explanations relating to cumulative causation, economies of scale etc., and statistically based on the relation between GNP per capita in 1978 and its growth rates during 1960–1978, is shown to contain considerable elements of ‘myth’ or statistical ‘delusion’. The ‘naïve’ polarization hypothesis based on income levels at the end of the period over which growth rates are measured is left with a much weakened empirical basis when the proper substitution of levels of income at the beginning of the period is made. This is particularly so for low- and middle-income countries taken separately, while for the 18 industrialized countries a strong tendency towards convergence in per capita incomes emerges. Finally, for the growth in manufacturing value added during 1960–1977 a significant tendency towards convergence was observed in the case of a group of 24 least developed countries.     

工业化、城市化与我国农村居民收入增长：基于协整理论的实证研究

文章建立在协整理论的基础上,运用误差修正模型和Granger因果检验等方法,研究工业化发展和城市化发展对农村居民收入增长的影响及其动态相关性。研究结论表明,无论在短期还是长期,工业化发展和城市化发展都是影响农民收入增长的重要因素,相比而言,工业化发展对农民收入增长的影响更显著更持久。因此,加速我国工业化进程是实现农村居民收入增长的重要推动力,城镇建设工作要和工业化推进有机结合,总体来说,实现工业化发展在现阶段对我国更为重要。     

Does polycentric spatial structure narrow the urban-rural income gap? – Evidence from six urban clusters in China

As urbanization and economic development continue to accelerate, social equity issues are becoming increasingly prominent and the urban–rural income gap is an important manifestation of this. This study uses the data of urban clusters from 2010 to 2019 and focuses on the relationship between the polycentric spatial structure of urban clusters and the urban–rural income gap. The findings show that the development of urban cluster polycentricity can reduce the urban–rural income gap, and the higher the degree of polycentricity in morphology, the smaller the gap. However, the relationship between polycentric spatial structure and the urban–rural income gap is “U” shaped, indicating the need for rational planning of urban polycentric development patterns rather than simple expansion. In addition, the polycentric spatial structure of urban clusters can reduce regional disparities by promoting factor mobility and industrial structure optimization. However, this depends on the level of industrial development and infrastructure. This study highlights the importance of a balanced approach to urban development that takes into account regional disparities and issues of social equity.     

我国城市化水平与农民增收关系实证研究

为了定量化研究城市化水平与农民增收的关系,本文采用1978-2008年度时间序列数据,利用Eviews3.0软件对其进行单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,实证研究了城市化水平与农民增收之间的关系。结果表明：我国城市化水平与农民增收之间存单向的因果关系,城镇化是引起农民收入增加的重要原因,城市化水平每提高一个单位,农村人均净收入就增加156个单位。在此基础上,提出了解决我国＂三农＂问题的政策理念。     

Fishing in the same pool: Export strengths and competitiveness of China and Central,Eastern and Southeastern Europe at the EU-15 market

We investigate the impact of the emergence of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries at the EU-15 market, i.e. the fifteen EU members as of 1995. The main aim of the paper is thus to challenge the common view that China crowds out exporters from European markets. The paper takes a comprehensive approach in terms of empirical methods and data. We analyze export growth, export market shares, extensive and intensive margins and the dynamics in the number of joint trade links (Dynamic Trade Link Analysis), applying highly disaggregated data at the 6-digit HS level over the period 1995–2010. We show that the most contested markets are those for capital goods and transport equipment, product categories where both regions have gained market shares and comparative advantage. We show that the number of trade links at the product level where both regions are active has increased substantially, indicating intensified competition. At the same time hardly any trade links were lost, which points against cut-throat competition between CESEE and China. The decomposition of export growth along the extensive versus the intensive margin shows that in line with the literature, the deepening of already existing trade relationships (i.e. the intensive margin) contributed most strongly to export growth in both regions, whereas the contribution of new trade links (i.e. the extensive margin) had only a minor contribution, apart from the instance of EU accession, which boosted the extensive margin considerably. We further decompose intensive margin growth into demand related structural effects and a supplier related competitiveness effect. Both the CESEE region and China successfully intensified their trade linkages above all as a result of their outstanding competitiveness as shown by the econometric shift-share analysis. While this suggests that both regions pursue a suitable export strategy, further diversification of production towards promising new industries and markets will become increasingly crucial for both, especially in face of projected slower EU-15 market growth in the longer run.     

The distribution of ncome in the UK and OECD countries in the twentieth century

Distributional changes are an important part of the economichistory of the OECD countries over the twentieth century. Inthe UK, income inequality in the 1970s was substantially lowerthan 40 years earlier, and is now much higher than in 1979.The pattern of change in the USA has similarities to that inthe UK, but other countries have exhibited significant differences.In order to explain diversity of experience over time, and differencesin income inequality across countries today, we need to recognizethat the distribution of income is subject to a variety of forces,affecting earnings, wealth, and income. These forces includethe policy choices made by governments affecting market incomesand fiscal redistribution. What we need to explain is why insome periods a number of these forces combine to produce episodesof rising, or falling, inequality. Any single theory, such asthat based on a global shift of demand away from unskilled workers,cannot provide a fully adequate explanation.     

World economy,level development and income distribution: An integration of different approaches to the explanation of income inequality

The paper briefly outlines explanations of international differences in personal income distribution that have been formulated within the ‘world economy’ and the ‘level of development’ paradigm. The predictive power of the central variables of the paradigms are tested in a cross-national regression analysis with 72 countries. The regression results suggest support for hypotheses from both paradigms, but also suggest a partial integration of theoretical elements from both paradigms. The outcome of the proposed theoretical integration offers a new interpretation of the well-known curvilinear relationship between level of development and income inequality. This new view on the curvature of the relationship expects the integration into the world economy to result in increased income inequality in peripheral countries. But different from other views it is not implied that inequality is substantially reduced in development. The core and periphery position of countries in the world economy is seen to stabilize income inequality differences between these groups of countries. Under these circumstances, developing countries generally cannot be expected to reduce substantially their income inequality in the course of economic growth.     

Human capital accumulation in emerging Asia, 1970–2030

Emerging Asian economies have made strong progress in improving educational capital in the past 40 years. High educational attainment, especially at the secondary level, has significantly improved emerging Asia's educational achievement. Regressions show that better parental education and income, lower income inequality, declining fertility, and higher public educational expenditures account for higher educational enrollment. But Asia's average years of schooling are forecast to increase to 7.6 years by 2030, from 7.0, significantly slower than the increase of 4.1 years from 1970 to 2010. That would put emerging Asia's educational capital in 2030 at only the 1970 level of the advanced countries, or still 3.5 years behind the level of advanced countries in 2010. For sustained human development, Asian economies must invest in improving educational quality and raising enrollment rates at the secondary and tertiary levels.     

Cross-Country Private Saving Heterogeneity and Culture

Motivated by the dominant role of cross-country heterogeneity in private saving in the creation of Eurozone imbalances over the past decade, we empirically investigate the determinants of private saving for a sample of 30 OECD countries over the period 1990–2010. In addition to standard macroeconomic variables, we include three country-specific cultural indicators, derived from the World and European Value Surveys. We find these three variables—thrift, trust and religiosity—to significantly contribute to the explanation of cross country saving heterogeneity both for the OECD group at large and for the Eurozone countries separately.     

Changing nature of North–South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations

This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization—the phenomenon of rising international trade and financial flows. We use a comprehensive database of macroeconomic and sectoral variables for 106 countries over the period 1960–2005. We consider the South to be composed of two groups of countries, the Emerging South and the Developing South, based on the extent of their integration into the global economy. Using a panel regression framework, we find that the impact of the Northern economic activity on the Emerging South has declined during the globalization period (1986–2005). In contrast, the growth linkages between the North and Developing South have been rather stable over time. Our findings also suggest that the North and Emerging South economies have started to exhibit more intensive intra-group growth spillovers.     

Has urbanization accelerated PM2.5 emissions? An empirical analysis with cross-country data

As a prominent indicator of economic development, urbanization can exert a significant impact on the PM_2.5 level. Using panel data from 126 countries (areas) over the period 1990–2016, this study investigates the relationship between urbanization level and PM_2.5 density. A modified stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model is applied as the empirical strategy. Results show that the relationship between urbanization and PM_2.5 density has an inverted U shape. The effects of urban agglomeration and technological progress reduce the density of PM_2.5 in the late stage of urbanization. This study can help policymakers design appropriate measures relevant to PM_2.5 attenuation in the context of breakneck urbanization.