Trade Liberalization and the Profitability of Mergers: a Global Analysis*

We analyze the effects of bilateral tariff reductions on the profitability of cost‐reducing horizontal mergers. Given Cournot competition in a two‐country world, for any positive tariff below a certain threshold, marginal trade liberalization is shown to encourage only those domestic mergers with sufficiently large cost‐savings and to discourage the rest. For tariffs close to, but smaller than, the prohibitive tariff, however, marginal trade liberalization necessarily encourages all domestic mergers. Moreover, we show that for a given level of cost‐savings, the impact of marginal trade liberalization may not reliably predict that of nonmarginal liberalization. Although at high tariffs, domestic mergers are shown to be unambiguously more profitable than cross‐border mergers, near free trade, mergers which yield the most cost‐savings become the most profitable. Thus, when comparing domestic and cross‐border mergers, trade liberalization encourages the type which yields the most cost‐savings.     

Sectoral differentiation, allocation of talent, and financial development

I present a theory of development in which heterogeneously talented entrepreneurs require credit to start new projects and open new sectors. During development the variety of sectors expands, which allows better sorting of entrepreneurial talent. The paper shows that, in addition to increasing the average productivity of matches between agents and sectors, this process also mitigates informational frictions in the financial markets. Furthermore, the impact of sectoral variety on the operation of financial markets gives rise to an interesting feedback between financial development and R&D effort, which may lead to different types of dynamics. A successful economy exhibits a progressive increase in the variety of sectors, which in turn enhances the operation of financial markets. However, a poverty trap may also arise. This situation is characterised by a rudimentary productive structure with poor matching of skills to activities and severely inefficient credit to talented entrepreneurs.     

Consumption versus asset smoothing: testing the implications of poverty trap theory in Burkina Faso

Despite solid theoretical foundations for the notion that poor, borrowing-constrained households will intertemporally manage assets to smooth consumption, the consumption-smoothing hypothesis has not always withstood empirical scrutiny. This paper reassesses the intertemporal asset management problem with a poverty trap model and shows that we would expect to see asset smoothing, not consumption smoothing, in the neighborhood of critical asset levels at which optimal accumulation behavior bifurcates. We then employ threshold estimation techniques to empirically confirm the co-existence of consumption and asset smoothing regimes using a household panel data set from West Africa. Households above the estimated threshold almost completely insulate their consumption from weather shocks, whereas those below the threshold do not. These results not only indirectly provide evidence of the existence of poverty traps but also speak to the level and incidence of the costs of uninsured risk.     

Optimal consumption and the timing of the resolution of uncertainty

As is well-known, consumers want to accumulate precautionary savings in the face of income risks when their marginal utility is convex (prudence). In this paper, we explore the effect of the timing of the resolution of income uncertainty on savings. An agent faces uncertainty about his income at date t+2. What is the effect of being informed that the uncertainty will be resolved at date t+1 on the consumption at date t? We show that the effect is positive, if and only if, marginal utility is convex (prudence), when either the risk free rate is equal to the rate of pure preference for the present, or when the utility function is HARA. The intuition is that an early resolution of uncertainty allows for time-diversifying the risk. It therefore plays a role similar to a reduction of the income risk, whose effect on savings is negative under prudence.     

Scale-dependent and risky returns to savings: Consequences for optimal capital taxation

I present a model of optimal capital taxation where agents with heterogeneous labor productivity randomly draw their rate of return to savings. Because of scale dependence, the distribution of rates of returns can depend on the amount saved. Uncertainty in returns to savings yields an insurance rationale for taxing capital on top of labor income. I first show that, because of scale dependence, agents making the same saving decision should access the same rate of return at the optimum. I then constrain the information set of the government and show that, as soon as return are uncertain, positive capital income taxation is needed at the optimum. The optimal linear tax on capital income trades off insurance with distortions to both savings and to the rate of return in a context of scale dependence. Eventually, I argue that scale dependence in and of itself is not sufficient to justify capital taxation on top of labor income taxes. These results are still valid when agents can optimize between a risk-free and a risky-asset that can both exhibit scale dependence.     

Informality and Long‐Run Growth

One of the most salient features of developing economies is the existence of a large informal sector. In this paper, we use quantitative theory to study the dynamic implications of informality on wage inequality, human capital accumulation, child labor, and long‐run growth. Our model can generate transitory informality equilibria or informality‐induced poverty traps. Its calibration reveals that the case for the poverty‐trap hypothesis arises: although informality serves to protect low‐skilled workers from extreme poverty in the short run, it prevents income convergence between developed and developing nations in the long run. Then we examine the effectiveness of different development policies to exit the poverty trap. Our numerical experiments show that using means‐tested education subsidies is the most cost‐effective single policy option. However, for longer time horizons, or as the economy gets closer to the poverty trap threshold, combining means‐tested education and wage subsidies is even more effective.     

Wealth inequality, preference heterogeneity and macroeconomic volatility in two-sector economies

We explore the link between wealth inequality, preference heterogeneity and macroeconomic volatility in a two-sector neoclassical growth model. First we prove that, if agents have homogeneous preferences, when the absolute risk tolerance is a strictly convex (concave) function, sufficiently high (low) levels of wealth inequality may lead to endogenous fluctuations in the neighborhood of the steady state. Second, we consider the effects of preference heterogeneity when agents are homogeneous with respect to their wealth. We show that when the utility function belongs to the HARA class, sufficiently high levels of preference heterogeneity may lead to endogenous fluctuations in the neighborhood of the steady state if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is greater than one.     

Weak and Strong Signals

Akerlof, Spence and Stiglitz showed that competitive markets can perform very poorly in the presence of informational asymmetry. In this paper I show that if there is a signaling technology which is sufficiently strong (i.e., the marginal cost of signaling declines sufficiently rapidly with quality) the cost of sorting is low and a Nash equilibrium exists. Empirically testable necessary and sufficient conditions for existence are derived. I further show that if Akerlovian participation constraints are added to a signaling model there is a minimum signaling threshold. Finally I argue that these conclusions hold regardless of whether it is the uninformed or informed agents who move first.
JEL classification : D 8     

Financial Intermediation and Occupational Choice in Development

This paper presents evidence that the spread between the marginal product of capital and the return on financial assets is much higher in poor than in rich countries. A model with costly intermediation is developed. In this economy, individuals choose at each instant whether to work or to operate a technology. Entrepreneurs finance their business with their own savings and, if necessary, by borrowing from banks. I find that in this framework intermediation costs are not equivalent to a tax on the return of capital. The equivalence fails because costly intermediation affects not only the capital accumulation decision but also the occupational choice decision. I show that intermediation costs have important effects on per capita output and average business size in the economy. I conclude that taxing financial intermediaries can be a very bad policy for development. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E20, E60, O11, O16.     

Can rational individuals keep money under their mattresses forever?

Summary Conditions are given for an infinite horizon consumption-savings model under which savings are bounded away from 0 with probability 1 even in the long-run. That is, with probability 1 there exists a timeT and a minimum level of savingsS such fort > T savings will always be greater thanS. I would like to thank Graziella Bertocchi, Oded Galor, Basilis Gidas, Gil Skillman, David Weil and seminar participants at Brown University. I am also very grateful to an anonymous referee for many useful suggestions.     

Wealth Heterogeneity and Escape from the Poverty–Environment Trap

A mutual link between poverty and environmental degradation is examined in an overlapping generations model. Environmental quality affects labor productivity and wealth dynamics, whereas wealth distribution determines the degree to which agents rely on technology that has a large environmental load, and therefore the evolution of environmental quality. This interaction creates a “poverty–environment trap,” where a deteriorated environment lowers income, which, in turn, accelerates environmental degradation. We show that greater wealth heterogeneity is the key to escaping from the poverty–environment trap, although it can have negative effects on both the environment and output when not in the trap.     

Good governance and good aid allocation

We model the aid allocation process as a rent-seeking contest between two countries and investigate the effects of differing allocation rules on recipients' behavior in a simple framework. We investigate the aid allocation mechanism design that attempts to increase the governance quality of potential recipient countries: the potential recipients spend costly resources improving governance, while the donor country allocates the fund based on their governance quality. The paper compares two mechanisms: one uses a simple winner-takes-all tournament to award the entire available purse to the country with the best governance; while under the other aid is distributed among countries in proportion to their governance qualities. The paper shows the second mechanism outperforms the first only if competing countries are sufficiently asymmetric. Moreover, the recipient who is most effective in governance – and stands to benefit the most from development assistance – has interests opposite to those of the donor. In addition, the paper shows that if the donor country allocates the fund based on both governance and the levels of poverty, it may result in a poverty trap: the leaders of potential recipient countries deliberately allocate funds away from the poorest so as not to better their position in order to receive more aid.     

Democracy vs. dictatorship

A democratic society is often regarded as a prerequisite for economic growth and development. Yet, most empirical studies are not capable of identifying a positive link between GDP growth and democracy indexes. In addition, it is a stylized empirical fact that: (i) most developing countries are dictatorships; and (ii) many poor dictatorships have experienced high growth performances and emerged from poverty such as South Korea, China and Egypt. Against this background, it is of interest to analyse in which ways the growth performance between autocratic and democratic economies may differ, in particular among low-income countries. To answer this question, we compare the endogenous growth paths of two economies that differ only in their political regimes in the context of an overlapping generations model. The key features of the model are: (i) a positive bequest motive in the form of investments in education or productive public capital (infrastructure); (ii) a higher marginal (inter-temporal) utility of consumption today versus consumption tomorrow in low-income countries (for example, subsistence level of consumption); and (iii) a dictator that cares about her income or the income of her dynasty tomorrow. In this framework, we demonstrate that poor but large and stable dictatorships exhibit a higher equilibrium growth rate than comparable (equally poor) democracies. Moreover, there exists a particular threshold value in income such that the growth-reducing impact of dictatorial consumption (corruption) outweighs the higher (initial) public investments. Above this, the growth rate under democracy dominates the one in dictatorship.     

Increasing returns to savings and wealth inequality

In this paper I present an explanation to the fact that in the data wealth is substantially more concentrated than income. Starting from the observation that the composition of households' portfolios changes towards a larger share of high-yield assets as the level of net worth increases, I first use data on historical asset returns and portfolio composition by wealth level to construct an empirical return function. I then augment an Overlapping Generation version of the standard neoclassical growth model with idiosyncratic labor income risk and missing insurance markets to allow for returns on savings to be increasing in the level of accumulated assets. The quantitative properties of the model are examined and show that an empirically plausible difference between the return faced by poor and wealthy agents is able to generate a substantial increase in wealth inequality compared to the basic model, enough to match the Gini index and all but the top 1 percentile of the US distribution of wealth.     

Imitation and evolutionary stability of poverty traps

This paper develops a bioeconomic model applying evolutionary game theory to the notion of poverty traps. We study the evolution of the social norm of being either a high-type or low-type in a dynamic environment where agents are driven by an imitative behavior. History matters because given initial conditions, agents imitate according to their current success in payoffs and the current profile of economic agents in the economy. We define a poverty trap as an evolutionarily stable strategic profile and steady state of the replicator dynamics. We show that in poor economies with a large fraction of low-type agents imitative strategies do not support a take-off into sustained growth. To achieve that take-off, society should subsidize critical parameters of the expected payoffs such that economic agents may change the initial conditions and the economy gets a critical mass of high-type economic agents, and so to overcome the poverty trap.     

Punishment paths and cartel size

Using a ‘Dominant-group-fringe’ model, we show that the choice of a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) punishment path in the event that unilateral defection occurs depends upon the common discount parameter, and that when the discount parameter is given the punishment path may depend upon the size of the dominant group. The choice of punishment path is thus endogenous. A striking result is that only for sufficiently small dominant groups in sufficiently small industries are there cases where costs affect these choices. Consequently, costs are irrelevant to the choice of punishment in industries with a large number of firms.     

Welfare Effect of Mergers and Multilateral Trade Liberalization

In a two‐country model where firms behave à la Cournot, we show that trade liberalization increases (decreases) the social desirability of those mergers that generate sufficiently large (small) reductions in marginal cost. There exists a range of intermediate levels of marginal cost savings such that marginal tariff reductions increase (decrease) the desirability of merger at sufficiently low (high) tariff levels. Moreover, in the neighborhood of free trade, we show that if trade liberalization increases the profitability of a merger, it necessarily also increases its desirability.     

Confronting the risk of asset loss: What role do livestock transfers in northern Kenya play?

In many low-income, high-risk environments households participate in informal risk sharing institutions involving inter-household transfers. This study focuses on: asset transfers and asset risk; the influence of past behavior on access to transfers; and wealth-differentiated transfer behavior. Panel data on livestock transfers in northern Kenya are analyzed. Three explanations of livestock transfers are investigated: ex post insurance; ex ante precautionary savings; and redistribution. Findings indicate that livestock transfers are of limited effectiveness in addressing asset risk and avoiding poverty. The findings have implications for both research on risk sharing institutions and for the design of development policies in pastoral areas.     

Optimal dynamic risk sharing when enforcement is a decision variable

Societies provide institutions that are costly to set up, but able to enforce long-run relationships. We study the optimal decision problem of using self-governance for risk sharing or governance through enforcement provided by these institutions. Third-party enforcement is modelled as a costly technology that consumes resources, but permits the punishment of agents who deviate from ex ante specified allocations. We show that it is optimal to employ the technology whenever commitment problems prevent first-best risk sharing and fixed costs are sufficiently low, but never optimal to provide incentives exclusively via this technology. Commitment problems then persist and the optimal incentive structure changes dynamically over time with third-party enforcement monotonically increasing in the relative inequality between agents.     

Subjective random discounting and intertemporal choice

This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a particular type of preference shock model called the random discounting representation where a decision maker believes that her discount factors change randomly over time. For this purpose, we formulate an infinite horizon extension of [E. Dekel, B. Lipman, A. Rustichini, Representing preferences with a unique subjective state space, Econometrica 69 (2001) 891-934], and identify the behavior that reduces all subjective uncertainties to those about future discount factors. We also show uniqueness of subjective belief about discount factors. Moreover, a behavioral comparison about preference for flexibility characterizes the condition that one's subjective belief second-order stochastically dominates the other. Finally, the resulting model is applied to a consumption-savings problem.