Carbon,Trade Policy and Carbon Free Trade Areas

This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon‐free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for the next several decades will be growth more than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition given differences in emission intensity between tradables and non‐tradables. We then note that differences in emissions intensity across countries are larger than across products or sectors and so issues of country discrimination in trade policy (and violations of MFN) arise. We next discuss both unilateral and regional carbon motivated trade policy arrangements, including three potential variants of carbon emission reduction based free trade area arrangements. One is regional trade agreements with varying types of trade preferences towards low carbon‐intensive products, low carbon new technologies and inputs to low carbon processes. A second is the use of joint border measures against third parties to counteract anti‐competitive effects from groups of countries taking on deeper emission reduction commitments. A third is third‐country trade barriers along with free trade or other regional trade agreements as penalty mechanisms to pressure other countries to join emission‐reducing environmental agreements. We differentiate among the objectives, forms and possible impacts of each variant. We also speculate as to how the world trading system may evolve in the next few decades as trade policy potentially becomes increasingly dominated by environmental concerns. We suggest that the future evolution of the trading system will likely be with environmentally motivated arrangements acting as an overlay on prevailing trade and financial arrangements in the WTO and IMF, and eventually movement to linked global trade and environmental policy bargaining.     

Financial literacy and support for free trade in the UK

Recent events in Europe and the United States suggest that open economies are increasingly under stress as nationalist, protectionist and populist political entrepreneurs are gaining significant ground across the Western world. Many theories have been formulated as to which factors are more likely to explain such policy preferences. The hypothesis tested in this paper is that financial literacy affects economic policy preferences. I analyse data from the British Election Study and test my theory on support for free trade in the United Kingdom. Findings suggest that financial literacy does affect economic policy preferences. On average, financially literate individuals are more likely to think that free trade is good for the British economy. Furthermore, this is true regardless of economic self-interest, as both financially literate winners and losers from globalisation are more likely to support free trade than their illiterate counterparts.     

Trump’s Trade Policy Agenda

President Donald Trump espouses “America First” positions which are commonly interpreted as protectionist. However, a closer reading of Donald Trump’s business interests, of his administration’s published trade agenda and of US trade negotiation history calls into question whether “America First” means protectionism. Trump will use large trade deficits to pressure trading partners to further open up their markets. Companies that are successful in exporting to the US market from those countries will be alarmed by protectionist announcements and will therefore most likely pressure their governments to give in to the demands of the Trump administration.     

贸易政策和气候变化：低碳经济的国际视角——以碳关税为例

气候变化日益成为全球问题。贸易通过规模效应、结构效应和技术效应影响全球气候变化,但以碳关税为代表的贸易政策并非有效缓和气候变化的工具,其实质是新型的绿色贸易壁垒。碳关税的最终实施迫切要求中国转变发展方式,向低碳经济转型。结合中国目前现实情况,应尽快实施碳税和建立与国际接轨的碳交易市场。     

Food Safety Issues,Trade and WTO Rules: A Developing Country Perspective

The SPS Agreement and the related WTO dispute settlement mechanism are an important first step in strengthening the global trade architecture, bringing in greater transparency and orderly conditions to world food trade. However, implementation of the new trade rules has turned out to be a more complex task than the traditional market access issues handled by the WTO. Several factors, including inadequate financial and technical resources, have constrained devel‐oping countries from becoming effective participants in the implementation process, and there is widespread suspicion that SPS regulations are being used as hidden protectionist devices by developed countries. However, despite all the problems, some developing countries have been quite successful in penetrating developed country food markets; they have done so by accepting the consumer preferences and standards in quality‐sensitive high‐income markets and implementing domestic supply‐side measures. While making full use of available international assistance initiatives, developing countries should view the task of complying with SPS standards not just as a barrier but also as an opportunity to upgrade quality standards and market sophistication in the food export sector.     

Escaping a protectionist rut: Policy mechanisms for trade reform in a democracy

This paper analyzes the dynamics of trade policy reform under democracy. In an overlapping generations model, heterogeneous agents may acquire skills when young thereby determining the skill composition of their cohort. Current and anticipated trade policies influence education decisions and thus voters' trade policy preferences. We show that there may exist two political steady states: one protectionist and one liberal. Transition from the former to the latter can be achieved by government announcements, temporary educational subsidies, or tariff liberalization by trading partners, but generally not by transfer payments to adversely affected workers. We find additionally that reform is politically feasible only if the proposed liberalization is sufficiently large, suggesting that radical reform may be necessary for escaping a protectionist political rut.     

Richtungswechsel in den USA — Folgen der neuen Präsidentschaft für die Wirtschaft

Under US President Donald Trump, it can be expected that large tax cuts will be passed and public expenditure will be slightly limited. He correctly identified US deindustrialisation as one of the economy’s core problems. His proposed policy platforms, however, are unpredictable and most likely harmful for the US and world economy. Even more importantly, the new government repeatedly clashes with national and multilateral institutions and thereby challenges the heart of democratically based capitalism. At present, it is still open if Donald Trump’s Executive Orders on trade measures will be backed by the US Congress. In any case, the new US administration is obviously abandoning the general principle of free trade. But the announced changes in US trade and exchange rate policies are less of a fundamental break than is often argued, because cooperation in international economic policy has always been limited and unstable. Beyond trade policy, it seems to be the intention of the new US government to fundamentally change the course of the country with regard to the financial markets. With regard to its monetary policy, the administration’s current position is marked by its inherent inconsistency. However, the new government has several channels through which to influence and fundamentally change the working of the Fed in order to make it more obedient to its goals.     

Free trade as ideology: fair trade as goal problems of an ideological approach in U.S. trade policy

Increased protectionist practices among the major industrialized countries present serious challenges to a free trade doctrine. Contradictions between theory and practice make the defense of a pure trade system increasingly untenable. Yet U.S. trade policy continues to be driven by an ideological commitment to such a system. Changing international economic and political conditions suggest that a new “fair trade” paradigm may be in the making. However, replacement of a “free” trade regime by a “fair” one will depend on how well the weaknesses of a free trade ideology can be overcome. These weaknesses are discussed and some suggestions are offered for clarifying policy thinking about free trade under contemporary conditions.     

碳贸易保护和WTO在应对气候变化全球合作中的作用

经济危机使全球贸易保护主义迅速抬头。负有量化减排义务的发达国家越来越多地以应对气候变化、防止碳泄露为由,试图通过贸易限制手段维持自身的竞争力不因减排所导致的成本上升而下降,碳贸易保护初露端倪。贸易与气候变化的关系成为WTO不得不面对的问题,其在应对气候变化全球合作中的特定作用日益显现。     

Der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss

Persistent and significant current account imbalances are often seen as one of the greatest threats to the global economy and a catalyst for protectionist tendencies. Germany is often criticised for running a high surplus. However, economists disagree about whether and to what extent the German current-account surplus is excessive and which policy measures could help to rebalance the current account. The authors argue that the German current-account surplus is a global phenomenon and hence requires in addition to economic policies that could stimulate investment activity in Germany an internationally coordinated approach. Taking into account the specific circumstances of a country, the WTO could act as an institutional framework to deal with global imbalances. In particular the WTO’s Trade Policy Review Mechanism could be further developed into a forum for coordinating members’ trade policy and for agreeing on reciprocal measures among members. The concrete design could be based on other established international mechanisms, such as the European Semester.     

Unilateral Climate Policy and Competitiveness: Economic Implications of Differential Emission Pricing

Unilateral climate policy raises concerns about international competitiveness and emission leakage that result in preferential regulatory treatment of domestic energy‐intensive and trade‐exposed (EITE) industries. Our applied analysis of unilateral EU abatement illustrates the potential pitfalls of climate policy design which narrowly focuses on competitiveness concerns about EITE industries. The sector‐specific gains of differential emission pricing in favour of these branches must be traded off with the additional burden imposed on other industries. From the perspective of the unilaterally abating region preferential EITE emission pricing can induce non‐negligible excess cost as policy concedes (too) low emission prices to EITE industries and thereby foregoes relatively cheap abatement options in these sectors. With respect to global cost‐effectiveness of unilateral climate policy, we find that differential emission pricing in favour of EITE industries can reduce emission leakage and thereby provide global cost savings compared with uniform pricing. However, the scope for cost savings is limited and may change into substantial cost increases if unilateral reduction targets are moderate and EITE industries get close to exemptions.     

Adjusting to BRICs in Glass Houses: Replacing Obsolete Institutions and Business Models

Global adjustment to the rise of the BRIC and other emerging economies is an important challenge for firms in the advanced economies. Emerging market firms increasingly trade and invest globally while monetary imbalances continue to rise and hobble advanced economy firms. Advanced country firms feel like they live in glass houses as the tectonic forces of technology, demographics, globalization, sustainability, and climate change force obsolescence in their business models. In this article, this overseas projection of economic power by the rising new economies is illustrated by the Indian and Chinese overseas economic expansion focused on Africa. This analysis shows that noneconomic state‐driven entities are likely to be a significant part of the rise of South‐South economic trade and investment flows and it poses theoretical and practical problems for existing market‐based economic and geopolitical institutions. Global adjustment to these new realities is also challenging as existing multilateral institutions seem to be inadequate. These changes in the global environment have significant implications for policy makers and managers of global companies. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Indonesia – Trade Policy Review 2007

This paper examines the 2007 WTO review of Indonesian trade policy. Indonesia undertook a major policy liberalisation in the late 1960s. Serious protectionist pressures emerged in the 1970s but for most of this period, and especially since the mid‐1980s, the economy has remained broadly open. We summarise the WTO report, update some of its analysis, highlight its key findings, and point to some trade policy issues that in our opinion warranted greater attention. The main theme of the paper is that Indonesia is a largely open economy, but that this openness on occasion remains precarious. There are both political economy, rent‐seeking forces opposed to the current openness and, perhaps more importantly, much of the country's influential public opinion is sceptical of the merits of an open economy and deeper global commercial integration. Nor is there a deeply institutionalised support for openness in the country's bureaucracy and polity. Seen from this perspective, a key question to answer is why the country has remained open, particularly since the deep economic and political crises of 1997–98.     

Autocracy,democracy and trade policy

This paper develops a politico-economic model for use in studying the role of intra-elite conflict in the simultaneous determination of a country's political regime, trade policy and income-tax-based redistribution scheme. Three socioeconomic groups are involved: two elite groups and workers, whose preferences regarding trade policy and income taxation are derived from a simple open-economy model. The critical point is that income taxation induces a rich–poor/elite–workers political cleavage, while trade policy opens the door to intra-elite conflict. In this model, when there is no intra-elite conflict, changes in trade policy are associated with political transitions. Coups (democratizations) open up the economy if and only if both elite groups are pro-free-trade (protectionist). However, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, autocracies respond to popular revolts by changing trade policy and reallocating political power within the elite (to the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers) rather than offering to democratize the country. The change in trade policy is credible because the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers controls the autocracy. Moreover, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, coups tend to result in the maintenance of the existing trade policy unless popular demands are extremely radical and/or the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers is exceptionally weak.     

After the presidential elections: Will the US “open door” trade strategy continue?

During the 1996 US presidential campaign protectionist proposals as well as calls for abandoning all international organizations were formulated, causing alarm in the rest of the world. Does the new US Administration's trade policy concept in fact pose major challenges to the international trade system?     

Conflicts between antidumping and antitrust law in the EC

Antidumping policy aims at protecting single firms or industries from distortions in trade with third countries. A broad definition of dumping can, however, lead to protectionist measures which conflict with antitrust policy. To what extent is this the case in the EC?     

Making Trade Policy in a New Democracy after a Deep Crisis: Indonesia

This paper examines the recent political economy of trade policy in Indonesia against the backdrop of two major events: the deep economic crisis of 1997–98, and the transition from three decades of rapid growth under an authoritarian regime to a weaker but democratic state. We investigate both international and domestic trade policy. The international trade policy regime has remained largely open, perhaps surprisingly in view of the unpopularity of liberal economic policies in the wake of the crisis and the forces advocating more protectionist policies. However, this openness is precarious, and lacks both institutional and community opinion support. In contrast, while remaining largely open at the international border, domestic barriers to trade have increased. This conjunction of economic crisis and weak, democratic states is a common phenomenon in the developing world, and the lessons for trade policy from the Indonesian experience over this decade are therefore relevant to many other countries.     

Liberalising Trends in Israel's Trade Policy: Trade Policy Review of Israel

Israeli authorities have been generally efficient in implementing gradual, mostly unilateral, liberalisation of their country's trade policy regime, with agriculture and related activities being the only major exceptions to the rule. This trend reflects a broad consensus among major political parties in Israel in pursuing liberal trade policy reforms. An alternative interpretation of the liberalising trend is that protectionist pressures from organised sectoral lobbies were either weak or inefficient.     

Preferences,rent destruction and multilateral liberalization: The building block effect of CUSFTA

If a free trade agreement (FTA) is characterized by the exchange of market access with a large and competitive trading partner, the agreement can cause a leakage of protectionist benefits to domestic industry from lobbying against external tariff cuts. This rent destruction effect of an FTA can free policy makers to be more aggressive in multilateral tariff cuts. We argue that the Canadian–US free trade agreement (CUSFTA) provides an ideal policy experiment to link this mechanism to the data. Exploring the determinants of Canada's tariff cuts at the 8-digit HS product level, we find that CUSFTA acted as an additional driver of Canadian multilateral tariff reductions during the Uruguay Round.     

In Search of Optimised Regional Trade Agreements and Applications to East Asia

We quantitatively analyse the trade effects of enhanced trade facilitation with extended gravity equations. Our findings confirm that RTAs comprised of countries equipped with better trade facilitation are more likely to be trade‐creating, less likely to be trade‐diverting, and are thus more likely to lead the world economy toward global free trade. We also find that (i) the traditional gains from shallow integration through eliminating tariff barriers will be greater for South‐South RTAs in East Asia such as an ASEAN‐China RTA, provided that the tariff‐reducing schedule is strictly fulfilled, (ii) the gains from deeper integration through enhancing trade facilitation will be greater for North‐North RTAs in East Asia such as a Japan‐Korea RTA, and (iii) the gains from a combined trade liberalisation strategy through tariff reductions and enhanced trade facilitation will be greater for North‐South RTAs in East Asia such as a China‐Korea and an ASEAN+3 RTA.