Towards an orientation of higher education in the post Rio + 20 process: How is the game changing?

The purpose of this paper is to identify and assess the implications of sustainable development for the future orientation of higher education, especially after the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio + 20). A qualitative trend analysis is being used for this purpose, in the context of which three macro trends are combined: (1) higher education that has been developed via five periods; (2) sustainable development that has evolved through three stages; and (3) the nexus between sustainable development and higher education which has strengthened through three phases. The simultaneous analysis of the macro trends regarding their possible interactive effects (through an expert panel discussion) demonstrates that higher education and universities under the influence of sustainable development elements are entering into a new era in which the function of “higher education for sustainable development” could be interpreted as the seeds of a newly emerging mission for universities. In this regard, it is expected that the concept of “sustainable university” is likely to become more common to meet the emerging mission. Consistent with the Rio + 20 outcomes, the authors analyzed the concept of “sustainable university” and identified the fact that it is practically divided into three interrelated and complementary categories, namely social-, environmental-, and economic-oriented university in pursuit of actualizing sustainable development.     

Google Internet search activity and volatility prediction in the market for foreign currency

I study whether evolution in the number of Google Internet searches for particular keywords can predict volatility in the market for foreign currency. I find that data on Google searches for the keywords economic crisis + financial crisis and recession has incremental predictive power beyond the GARCH(1,1). These results support the mixture of distributions hypothesis in that volatility is linked to the stochastic rate at which information flows into the marketplace. These results also demonstrate the potential for Google to become a storehouse of information for financial markets.     

Risk management implications of time-inconsistency: Model updating and recalibration of no-arbitrage models

A widespread approach in the implementation of asset pricing models is based on the periodic recalibration of its parameters and initial conditions to eliminate any conflict between model-implied and market prices. Modern no-arbitrage market models facilitate this procedure since their solution can usually be written in terms of the entire initial yield curve. As a result, the model fits (by construction) the interest rate term structure. This procedure is, however, generally time inconsistent since the model at time t = 0 completely specifies the set of possible term structures for any t > 0. In this paper, we analyze the pros and cons of this widespread approach in pricing and hedging, both theoretically and empirically. The theoretical section of the paper shows (a) under which conditions recalibration improves the hedging errors by limiting the propagation of an initial error, (b) that recalibration introduces time-inconsistent errors that violate the self-financing argument of the standard replication strategy. The empirical section of the paper quantifies the trade-off between (a) and (b) under several scenarios. First, we compare this trade-off for two economies with and without model specification error. Then, we discuss the trade-off when the underlying economy is not Markovian.     

Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets

Using two newly available ultrahigh-frequency datasets, we investigate empirically how frequently one can sample certain foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury security returns without contaminating estimates of their integrated volatility with market microstructure noise. Using the standard realized volatility estimator, we find that one can sample dollar/euro returns as frequently as once every 15 to 20 s without contaminating estimates of integrated volatility; 10-year Treasury note returns may be sampled as frequently as once every 2 to 3 min on days without U.S. macroeconomic announcements, and as frequently as once every 40 s on announcement days. Using a simple realized kernel estimator, this sampling frequency can be increased to once every 2 to 5 s for dollar/euro returns and to about once every 30 to 40 s for T-note returns. These sampling frequencies, especially in the case of dollar/euro returns, are much higher than those that are generally recommended in the empirical literature on realized volatility in equity markets. The higher sampling frequencies for dollar/euro and T-note returns likely reflect the superior depth and liquidity of these markets.     

Time to equilibrium in exchange rates: G-10 and Eastern European economies

This paper reports different times-to-equilibrium for G-10 developed economies and the Eastern European emerging economies. By applying a novel method of value-weighted index to highly-trade-linked economies, we test the purchasing power parity to the full length of time-to-equilibrium. The times-to-equilibrium obtained are: 6 years for developed and 2 years for emerging economies. These results are consistent with the sticky price hypothesis: economies trading in highly aggregated capital goods take longer time to reach price equilibrium in the face of overshooting exchange rates: the opposite is true for primary exporters. This finding is new for these two groups, and could be compared usefully with the earlier reports of long half-life for developed countries. Also, our method of measurement establishes the actual time of the theory prediction on price-to-currency relationship. It is possible to apply this methodology to study more groups of countries.     

The home bias is here to stay

Over the last 15 years, dramatically decreasing foreign investment costs have not reduced the home bias. We show that the home bias induced by a given cost is proportional to the factor ρ/(1 − ρ), where ρ is the average correlation between markets. This factor is very sensitive to the correlation, especially when the correlation is high. Empirically, correlations have been steadily increasing from 0.4 in the 90’s to about 0.9 today. Thus, the decreasing extra costs are increasingly magnified, explaining the persistence of the home bias, and predicting its continuation.     

Design and evaluation of an advanced continuous data level auditing system: A three-layer structure

Audit efficiency and effectiveness can be significantly affected by data aggregation during audit procedures. Previous studies highlight that an appropriate level of data aggregation is needed because a continuous auditing (CA) system often generates numerous alarms. To respond to this issue, this study proposes a CA system with a three-layer structure. In the first layer of the proposed system, all journal entry level transactions are classified and aggregated using defined rules; any transactions that deviate from these rules are identified as unusual transactions. The second layer detects the observations that violate controls. Analytical monitoring models are developed in the final layer to identify observations that statistically deviate from an organization’s typical business behaviors. To examine whether the proposed three-layer CA system enhances the effectiveness of a CA system in identifying financial irregularities, this study empirically tests the proposed models using real-world journal entry data from a construction company. The results indicate that the proposed framework enhances audit effectiveness and efficiency.     

Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency data on the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate

This paper analyses the long-memory properties of a high-frequency financial time series dataset. It focuses on temporal aggregation and other features of the data, and how they might affect the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a variety of specifications for the error term. In brief, we find evidence that a lower degree of integration is associated with lower data frequencies. In particular, when the data are collected every 10 min there are several cases with values of d strictly smaller than 1, implying a mean-reverting behaviour; however, for higher data frequencies the unit root null cannot be rejected. This holds for all four series examined, namely Open, High, Low and Last observations for the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate and for different sample periods.     

Momentum is really short-term momentum

We demonstrate the estimation biases that arise when stock returns from 12 month prior and 2 month prior are included within intermediate and recent past momentum profits. These biases lead to an overestimation of intermediate past momentum but an underestimation of recent past momentum in the US market. There is no significant difference between the predictability of stock performance in the intermediate past and the recent past once we exclude these two months from the construction of momentum strategies in the US and each of the 26 major international markets.     

The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on banks stocks. Some evidence of shift contagion in Europe

This paper analyzes the influence of the recent European sovereign debt crisis on banks’ equity returns for 15 countries. Our data span the period December 14th 2007 - March 8th 2013 that encompasses several episodes of economic and financial turmoil since the collapse of the subprime credit market. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, we use an explicit multifactor model of equity returns extended with a sovereign risk factor. Second, we adopt a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) framework that allows for an endogenous definition of crisis periods and captures the changes in parameters associated with shift contagion. We find that the negative impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on banks’ equity returns has been mostly confined to European banks, whereas U.S. banks appear to be unharmed by its direct impact and may even have benefited from it. Besides, we find some evidence of shift contagion across Europe.     

Board structure and corporate risk taking in the UK financial sector

This paper examines the relationship between board structure and corporate risk taking in the UK financial sector. We show how the board size, board independence and combining the role of CEO and chairperson in boards may affect corporate risk taking in financial firms. Our sample is based on a panel dataset of all publicly listed firms in the UK financial sector, which includes banks, insurance, real estate and financial services companies over a ten year period (2003 − 2012). After controlling for the effects of endogeneity through the application of the dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimator, the findings of this study suggest that the presence of non-executive directors and powerful CEOs in corporate boards reduces corporate risk taking practices in financial firms. The negative relationship can be explained within the agency theory context, where managers are regarded as more risk averse because of the reputational and employment risk. An increased power concentration is therefore expected to enhance the risk aversion behaviour of directors. The findings however, do not show any significant effect of board size on corporate risk taking in financial firms. As this study covers recommendations of the UK Corporate Governance Code on the role of corporate boards in managing firms' risk, the empirical evidence could be useful for corporate governance regulation and policy making.     

Mandatory CSR disclosure and analyst forecast properties: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Based on a quasi-natural experiment that mandates a subset of listed firms to issue standalone corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports, we examine whether mandatory CSR disclosure improves analysts’ information environment. We focus on two properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts: forecast error and forecast dispersion. We find that the mandatory issuance of standalone CSR reports is related to less forecast error and less dispersed forecasts, and the effect varies with the firm-level information environment and province-level marketization. Additional tests show that the improvement in forecast properties is mainly driven by CSR reports that i) are of high quality and ii) contain more long-term-oriented information than other CSR reports. Our findings provide evidence that mandatory CSR disclosure plays an important informational role for financial analysts.     

Climate change impacts and its implications on future water resource management in the Meghna Basin

Copious precipitation in the Meghna Basin has remarkable consequences for floods in the north-eastern region of Bangladesh. In addition, due to climate change more frequent extreme precipitation may also increase the frequency and intensity of flash floods. In this study, a hydrologic model H08 has been applied over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km). The impacts of climate change are assessed by using the super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S with A1B scenario through three time-slice experiments; the base-period (1979–2003), the near-future (2015–2039), and the far-future (2075–2099) periods. This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes and the changes in the frequency of precipitation and runoff with different magnitude ranges and finds the implications for water resources management under climate change. Results show that, (a) the projected maximum increment of mean annual precipitation (runoff) is +23% (+34%) and +31% (+39%) during the near-future and the far-future, respectively, (b) the projected increment of median value of monthly discharges at basin outlet is significantly high in wet period (May-July), ranging from 38 to 44% and 25–104% in the near-future and the far-future, respectively. Moreover, the monsoonal peaks are expected to come about 1 ∼ 1.5 month earlier, which ultimately lead to higher possibility of earlier flash flood in the future. This anticipated higher increment in peak discharge as well as future shifting of seasonal cycle of river discharge will have significant implications for agriculture and flood disaster management. Findings will also contribute to enhance water resource management in the basin and improve the design of adaptive measures.     

The impact of religious practice on stock returns and volatility

With a psychological and behavioral perspective, this paper examines whether religious practice, through its influence on investors' moods and emotions, affect the behavior of the stock markets and investors in 15 Islamic countries over the period December 31, 2005 to December 31, 2015 and over four sub-periods (before and after both the global financial crisis and the Arab spring). The results indicate that volatility decreases during the month of Ramadan and is significantly different from the volatility observed in the other 11 months of the Islamic calendar year in most Muslim countries. We also identify that changes in stock returns and volatility during the month of Ramadan are related to religious practice and not due to the global financial crisis or the Arab spring. The findings significantly improve the understanding of the role of religious practice on stock market behavior and as such may be of great interest to investors and market regulators.     

Latency,liquidity and price discovery

The speed of trading is an important factor in modern security markets, although relatively little is known about the effect of speed on liquidity and price discovery, two important aspects of market quality. On April 23, 2007, Deutsche Boerse made an important upgrade to their trading system. With the 8.0 release of Xetra, system latency was reduced from 50 ms to 10 ms. Subsequently, both quoted and effective spreads decreased, which are mainly concentrated in small- and medium-sized stocks. This increase in liquidity is due to dramatically lower adverse selection costs that were only partially translated into higher liquidity. We interpret this as a decrease in the competition between liquidity suppliers who are able to increase their revenues by more than 90 million euros. The contribution of quotes to price discovery doubles to 90% post upgrade, indicating that prices are more efficient.     

Exact inference and optimal invariant estimation for the stability parameter of symmetric α-stable distributions

Hill estimation (Hill, 1975), the most widespread method for estimating tail thickness of heavy-tailed financial data, suffers from two drawbacks. One is that the optimal number of tail observations to use in the estimation is a function of the unknown tail index being estimated, which diminishes the empirical relevance of the Hill estimation. The other is that the hypothesis test of the underlying data lying in the domain of attraction of an α-stable law (α < 2) or of a normal law (α ≥ 2) for finite samples, is performed on the basis of the asymptotic distribution, which can be different from those for finite samples. In this paper, using the Monte Carlo technique, we propose an exact test method for the stability parameter of α-stable distributions which is based on the Hill estimator, yet is able to provide exact confidence intervals for finite samples. Our exact test method automatically includes an estimation procedure which does not need the assumption of a known number of observations on the distributional tail. Empirical applications demonstrate the advantages of our new method in comparison with the Hill estimation.     

The importance of size in private equity: Evidence from a survey of limited partners

Using a comprehensive survey, we show that investors with a larger capital allocation to private equity are more specialized − measured by the degree to which the investor focuses on private equity rather than other classes of investments − and have a wider scope of due diligence and investment activities. Other investor characteristics (experience, type, location, compensation structure, number of funds under management) play no role. In particular, endowments are not special according to the survey measures. These results are consistent with the changing LP–GP relationship in private equity as capital is increasingly concentrated in the hands of large investors.     

Under-or-overreaction: Market responses to announcements of earnings surprises

We test whether the well-documented market reaction to the announcements of earnings surprises is a manifestation of an investor underreaction or overreaction to extremely good or bad earnings news. Using the market reaction in the three-day period surrounding the announcements of extreme earnings surprises (i.e., SUE) in quarter Q_t as a reference point, we show that firms reporting a high (low) SUE in subsequent quarter Q_t + 1 that confirms their initial quarter Q_t SUE ranking in the same highest or lowest SUE quintiles generate an incremental price run that moves in the same direction as that of the initial SUE. However, the price impact of the confirming SUE signal is weaker than that of its initial SUE. Our findings are robust to the Fama-French three-factor daily regression extended by the momentum factor and a number of other robustness tests. Our result is not consistent with the prevalent view that investors underreact to earnings news. To the contrary, the evidence suggests an initial investor overreaction to extreme SUE signals.     

Financial Markets,the Real Economy,and Self‐Fulfilling Uncertainties

We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking economic uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities in general equilibrium. The mutual learning between financial markets and the real economy creates a strategic complementarity in their information production, leading to self‐fulfilling surges in economic uncertainties. In a dynamic setting, our model characterizes self‐fulfilling uncertainty traps with two steady‐state equilibria and a two‐stage economic crisis in transitional dynamics.     

Long-term government bond yields and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence for Greece during the crisis-era

This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic fundamentals and the underlying 10 years Greek government bonds. We examine for the period between Q12001 up to end to Q42012, applying four major macroeconomic variables such as Debt to GDP ratio, deficit, inflation and unemployment. We found that, overall, deficit, inflation and unemployment among others, play a more significant role as determinants of the 10-year Greek bond yield, while isolating the period during the crisis macroeconomic factors strengthen their affect to the Greek Debt market.