我国中小企业板IPO定价影响因素的实证研究

选取2009年6月到2012年11月在中小企业板发行的428只新股为研究样本,运用因子分析和逐步回归法对IPO定价影响因素进行实证研究。研究发现,公司的盈利因子F2、发行市盈率、发行费用、发行数量、新股发行改革政策、预计募集资金、成长因子F3、中签率、营运因子F4对新股发行价格有重要影响,而其他因素的影响均不显著。继而构建中小板IPO定价模型,可为拟发行新股的公司提供定价指导,并建议继续深化新股发行市场化改革,以提高定价效率。     

基于聚类分析的中小板IPO定价实证研究

股票发行定价作为股市运行极为关键的一环,它的合理与否将直接关系到整个股市运行的效率。选取深圳中小板近3年来发行新股作为研究样本,然后利用多元线性回归方法作分析,可找出影响IPO发行价格的5个主要因素。以多元回归得到的主要因素作为聚类指标,选取该板块中某一行业(如机械材料行业)已发行股票为样本,对其进行聚类分析和判别分析,建立该板块新股发行定价的衡量体系,可为拟发行新股的公司提供定价指导。     

IPO限价发行与新股二级市场价格泡沫——论股票市场“弹簧效应”

本文通过对比2009年7月1日至2014年6月30日IPO市场化定价发行阶段与2014年7月1日至2018年6月30日IPO限价发行阶段共1950个IPO样本,发现IPO限价发行对于新股在二级市场股价表现具有“弹簧效应”:即抑制股票一级市场发行价格会造成新股在二级市场价格短期内超涨,限价发行新股的二级市场定价显著高于市场化定价发行新股的二级市场定价。限价发行引起的过高二级市场定价最终导致股票长期回报率低下。另外,创业板公司“弹簧效应”显著强于主板公司。这些实证结果都可以被本文提出的一级市场价格压抑造成二级市场非理性投资者上涨预期一致、盲目追涨的理论模型所解释。本文的研究指出抑制股票一级市场定价虽然形式上可以解决新股发行价过高问题,但是却造成二级市场更大的价格扭曲。这一发现为进一步完善我国IPO发行定价机制提供了依据。     

我国创业板上市公司IPO定价效率的实证分析

选取2009年10月30日创业板上市以来的全部355只新股作为研究对象,运用逐步回归的方法,探究我国创业板上市公司IPO定价效率的影响因素。结果表明,我国创业板市场的高IPO抑价率主要是由二级市场的投机引起的。而且,IPO发行价与上市公司的财务指标关联性不大,大部分财务指标不影响IPO发行价。最后,针对IPO定价效率不高的现象以及IPO定价效率中存在的问题提出相关政策建议。     

IPO定价方式比较研究

IPO定价是国际金融界公认的最具迷惑性的难题之一，其发行定价机制非常复杂。新股定价是IPO的核心环节，只有选择合理的定价方式才能充分反映市场需求。确定合理的新股定价发行方式，不仅关系到新股能否顺利正常地发行以及发行人、投资者以及承销商的利益，而且也直接影响到市场资源配置的效率。我国加入WTO后，证券市场正在发生着巨大变革，IPO定价方式将进一步朝着市场化、规范化、国际化方向发展，从而带动资本市场对外逐渐开放。     

IPO首日超额收益率影响因素分析

本文对2000年至2012年期间上海证券交易所新股IPO首日的超额收益率进行了总体分析,发现沪市新股IPO首日超额收益率均值水平高达109.7%。明显高于纽约、香港和新加坡证券市场。基于沪市的高超额收益率水平及属性结构特征,本文从公司自身因素、市场因素和制度因素三个层面构建了IPO首日超额收益率影响因素指标体系,并采用因子分析和多元回归分析相结合的方法对IPO首日超额收益率的影响因素进行了分析。分析发现,规模因子、上市市场成熟度因子和收益性因子对新股首日收盘收益率起负向影响作用,而上市公司成长能力因子则起正向影响作用;保荐制审核方式比通道制方式下的新股首日超额收益率小,网下询价、网上定价发行方式则比其他发行方式首日收盘收益率大。     

新股发行、价格确定与信息效率

本文从新股发行价格对各类信息的反应效率这一角度来研究核准制下新股发行定价效率问题。针对影响新股发行定价的信息因素具有多层次、多维度的特点,本文建立了一个有内在逻辑关系、能够较全面反映新股发行价格影响因素的理论框架,并采用协方差结构模型分析方法进行实证研究。结果显示:在核准制下新股价格基本上反映了内在价值因素和市场环境因素,具有一定的信息效率;而对发行因素反映的较少,缺乏这方面的信息效率。总体而言,我国新股发行定价的信息效率仍较为有限。     

新股发行、价格确定与信息效率

本文从新股发行价格对各类信息的反应效率这一角度来研究核准制下新股发行定价效率问题.针对影响新股发行定价的信息因素具有多层次、多维度的特点,建立了一个有内在逻辑关系、能够较全面反映新股发行价格影响因素的理论框架,并采用协方差结构模型分析(CSM)方法进行实证研究.实证结果显示:在核准制制度下新股价格基本上反映了内在价值因素和市场环境因素,具有一定的信息效率;而对发行因素反映的较少,缺乏这方面的信息效率.总体而言,我国新股发行定价的信息效率仍较为有限.     

新股发行、价格确定与信息效率

本文从新股发行价格对各类信息的反应效率这一角度来研究核准制下新股发行定价效率问题.针对影响新股发行定价的信息因素具有多层次、多维度的特点,本文建立了一个有内在逻辑关系、能够较全面反映新股发行价格影响因素的理论框架,并采用协方差结构模型分析方法进行实证研究.结果显示:在核准制下新股价格基本上反映了内在价值因素和市场环境因素,具有一定的信息效率;而对发行因素反映的较少,缺乏这方面的信息效率.总体而言,我国新股发行定价的信息效率仍较为有限.     

解读IPO定价机制改革

2009年5月22日,证监会发布了《关于进一步改革和完善新股发行体制的指导意见》（以下称《征求意见》）,公开征求意见截至6月5日结束。新股发行制度的改革以及IPO重新启动,有利于恢复证券市场的融资功能,实现IPO定价的合理性和资产定价的有效性。     

审计师声誉影响股票定价吗——来自IPO定价市场化的证据

本文以IPO定价市场化为背景,研究实施询价后的审计师声誉对IPO定价的影响。文章以"四大"和国内排名前十大的会计师事务所来衡量审计师声誉,采用多元回归和两阶段回归方法对假设进行检验,结果发现审计师声誉与公司询价水平正相关,但在统计上并不显著;在对抑价率的检验中,我们发现审计师声誉显著降低股票抑价率。进一步地,我们发现在民营上市公司中,上述关系更为稳健。总体来看,审计师声誉已经初步影响了股票定价。     

Regulations,earnings management,and post-IPO performance: The Chinese evidence

In this study, we examine whether government regulatory initiatives in China involving IPO by SOEs may have contributed to opportunistic behaviors by the issuer. We focus on two sets of IPO regulations issued between January 1, 1996 and February 11, 1999: pricing regulations, which stipulate that IPO prices be a function of accounting performance, and penalty regulations, which penalize IPO firms for overly optimistic forecasts. We find that IPO firms that report better pricing-period accounting performance have larger declines in post-IPO profitability, lower first-day stock returns and worse long-run post-IPO stock performance. Furthermore, IPO firms that make overoptimistic forecasts also have lower first-day returns and worse post-IPO stock performance. Using non-core earnings as the proxy for earnings management, we document some evidence that IPO firms that report higher pricing-period accounting performance have engaged in more income-increasing earnings management. Hence, pricing regulations may have induced IPO firms to inflate pricing-period earnings and affect the post-IPO performance negatively. On the other hand, penalty regulations have deterred IPO firms from making overoptimistic earnings forecast and therefore have a positive impact on the behavior of IPO firms.     

Chinese IPO activity,pricing, and market cycles

We examine the activity, pricing, and market cycles of 1,380 Chinese A share IPOs over the period 1991–2005 and find initial underpricing of 238%. The government restrictions on IPO offer price and quota allocation cause pricing structural breaks and attribute more than half of initial underpricing. A multifactor model that includes firm’s characteristics, excess demand for IPO shares, and the government restrictions explains cross-sectional initial returns, after controlling for industrial differences and stock market conditions. In addition, monthly IPO volume and average initial return are highly correlated. A VAR model indicates that initial return leads IPO volume by 6 months.     

Cross‐sectional determinants of post‐IPO stock performance: evidence from China

This paper examines the cross‐sectional determinants of post‐IPO long‐term stock returns in China. We document that the aftermarket P/E ratio has the most robust negative association with post‐IPO stock returns. The negative relation indicates that the market corrects the aftermarket overvaluation of IPO firms in the long run. Underwriter reputation has a positive effect on post‐IPO stock returns, while board size has a negative impact, consistent with the views that reputable underwriters mitigate the information asymmetry in IPO pricing and over‐sized boards reduce the effectiveness of corporate governance. However, we find little evidence indicating that the equity ownership structure is significantly associated with post‐IPO stock returns.     

询价制度第一阶段改革有效吗

询价制度第一阶段改革后,新股定价效率明显提高,证监会取消对发行价格的管制是新股定价效率提高的前提,询价对象竞争程度的增加是定价效率提高的根本动因;改革后,机构投资者择股效应显著,将定价效率提高所引发的部分投资风险转嫁给了中小投资者。中小投资者由改革前利益分配不公平转变为改革后风险分担不公平,定价效率进一步提高很可能引发中小投资者的赢者诅咒。发行制度未来改革应在注重提高定价效率的同时,限制机构投资者向中小投资者转嫁风险的能力。     

The Pricing of Initial Public Offerings: A Dynamic Model with Information Production

This paper presents an information-theoretic model of IPO pricing in which insiders sell stock in both the IPO and the secondary market, have private information about their firm's prospects, and outsiders may engage in costly information production about the firm. High-value firms, knowing they are going to pool with low-value firms, induce outsiders to engage in information production by underpricing, which compensates outsiders for the cost of producing information. The information is reflected in the secondary market price of equity, giving a higher expected stock price for high-value firms.     

The Pricing of Insurer Demutualization Initial Public Offerings

This article examines the pricing of the initial public offerings (IPOs) that follow insurance company demutualizations. Insurers that convert from mutual to stock form typically cite the need for capital as a key motivation. Given that capital adequacy is a primary regulatory objective for insurers, one would expect that for a given number of shares to be sold, these firms would price their offerings to maximize proceeds. However, the vast literature on IPO pricing suggests various theories as to why it may be in the issuing firm's best interest to underprice its offering. By examining the initial and long‐run stock returns for these conversion IPOs, the existence and degree of underpricing, as characterized by large initial returns, can be determined. It is observed that on average demutualization insurer IPOs post significantly higher first‐day returns than nondemutualization insurer IPOs. These gains would accrue to the initial investors and to those policyholders who receive compensation in the form of shares in the newly created stock insurer. Attractive returns are sustained for both groups of insurers during the first few years after IPO.     

基于主成分分析的IPO发行成本影响因素研究

在对IPO发行成本及其构成进行界定的基础上,对IPO发行成本影响因素展开分析,并采用主成分分析方法从原始变量中提取5个主成分因子,实证检验各主成分因子对中国证券市场IPO直接发行成本、间接发行成本和发行总成本的影响。研究结果表明,IPO发行成本受到规模、上市前股权结构和企业财务风险的影响;发行定价机制的变动显著影响直接发行成本,与间接发行成本和总成本的关系则不明显。     

The Pricing of Equity Carve-Outs

This article examines the pricing of stock for 251 equity carve‐outs during the 1986–1995 period. We document a mean initial‐day return of 5.83% and a mean one‐week return of 5.43%. Among carve‐outs, the initial underpricing is lower for issues represented by high prestige investment bankers and those that have a lower offer price. In comparison with 251 initial public offering (IPO) firms matched by size and book‐to‐market ratio of equity, carveouts exhibit significantly lower initial‐day returns, but their buy‐and‐hold returns for sixmonth and one‐year periods are not significantly different from IPOs. The IPO firms have a three‐year return of 28.82% which is significantly higher than the 21.07% return for the carve‐out firms.