Least convex capacities

Summary. Debreu proposed the notion of `least concave utility' as a way to disentangle risk attitudes from the certainty preferences embedded in a von-Neumann Morgenstern index. This paper studies preferences under uncertainty, as opposed to risk, and examines a corresponding decomposition of preference. The analysis is carried out within the Choquet expected utility model of preference and is centered on the notion of a least convex capacity. Received: May 7, 1997; revised version: November 5, 1997     

Preference for safety under the Choquet model: in search of a characterization

Victor prefers safety more than Ursula if whenever Ursula prefers a constant to an uncertain act, so does Victor. This paradigm, whose expected utility (EU) version is Arrow and Pratt’s more risk aversion concept, will be studied in the Choquet expected utility (CEU) model. Necessary condition Pointwise inequality between a function of the utility functions and another of the capacities is necessary and sufficient for the preference by Victor of safety over a dichotomous act whenever such is the preference of Ursula. However, increased preference for safety versus dichotomous acts does not imply preference by Victor of safety over a general act whenever such is the preference of Ursula. A counterexample will be provided, via the casino theory of Dubins and Savage. Sufficient condition Separation of the two functions by some convex function is sufficient for Victor to prefer safety more than Ursula, over general acts. Furthermore, a condition on the capacities will be presented for simplicity seeking, the preference by Victor over any act for some dichotomous act that leaves Ursula indifferent. This condition is met in particular if Victor’s capacity is a convex function of Ursula’s capacity. For these cases, the pointwise inequality (necessary) condition is a characterization of greater preference for safety, extending the Arrow–Pratt notion from EU to CEU and rank-dependent utility (RDU). These inequalities preserve the flavor of the “more pessimism than greediness” characterization of monotone risk aversion by Chateauneuf, Cohen and Meilijson in the RDU model and its extension by Grant and Quiggin to CEU. Preferences between safety and dichotomous acts are at the core of the biseparable preferences model of Ghirardato and Marinacci.     

Transferable utility games with uncertainty

We introduce the concept of a TUU-game, a transferable utility game with uncertainty. In a TUU-game there is uncertainty regarding the payoffs of coalitions. One out of a finite number of states of nature materializes and conditional on the state, the players are involved in a particular transferable utility game. We consider the case without ex ante commitment possibilities and propose the Weak Sequential Core as a solution concept. We characterize the Weak Sequential Core and show that it is non-empty if all ex post TU-games are convex.     

Market Games in Large Economies with a Finite Number of Types

We study market games derived from an exchange economy with a continuum of agents, each having one of finitely many possible types. The type of agent determines his initial endowment and utility function. It is shown that, unlike the well-known Shapley–Shubik theorem on market games (Shapley and Shubik in J Econ Theory 1:9–25, 1969), there might be a (fuzzy) game in which each of its sub-games has a non-empty core and, nevertheless, it is not a market game. It turns out that, in order to be a market game, a game needs also to be homogeneous. We also study investment games – which are fuzzy games obtained from an economy with a finite number of agents cooperating in one or more joint projects. It is argued that the usual definition of the core is inappropriate for such a model. We therefore introduce and analyze the new notion of comprehensive core. This solution concept seems to be more suitable for such a scenario. We finally refer to the notion of feasibility of an allocation in games with a large number of players. Some of the results in this paper appear in a previous draft distributed by the name “Cooperative investment games or Population games”. An anonymous referee of Economic Theory is acknowledged for his/her comments     

Ambiguity Without a State Space

Many decisions involve both imprecise probabilities and intractable states of the world. Objective expected utility assumes unambiguous probabilities; subjective expected utility assumes a completely specified state space. This paper analyses a third domain of preference: sets of consequential lotteries. Using this domain, we develop a theory of objective ambiguity without explicit reference to any state space. We characterize a representation that integrates a non-linear transformation of first-order expected utility with respect to a second-order measure. The concavity of the transformation and the weighting of the measure capture ambiguity aversion. We propose a definition for comparative ambiguity aversion.     

Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities

We develop the simplest generalization of subjective expected utility that can accommodate both optimistic and pessimistic attitudes towards uncertainty—Choquet expected utility with non-extreme-outcome-additive (neo-additive) capacities. A neo-additive capacity can be expressed as the convex combination of a probability and a special capacity, we refer to as a Hurwicz capacity, that only distinguishes between whether an event is impossible, possible or certain. We show that neo-additive capacities can be readily applied in economic problems, and we provide an axiomatization in a framework of purely subjective uncertainty.     

From sure to strong diversification

This paper presents a characterization of weak risk aversion in terms of preference for sure diversification. Similarly, we show that strong risk aversion can be characterized by weakening preference for diversification,as introduced by Dekel (Econometrica 57:163,1989), in what we call preference for strong diversification. We are grateful to Jean-Yves Jaffray, Peter Wakker and anonymous reference for very helpful suggestions and comments.     

Expected utility theory from the frequentist perspective

We present an axiomatization of expected utility from the frequentist perspective. It starts with a preference relation on the set of infinite sequences with limit relative frequencies. We consider three axioms parallel to the ones for the von Neumann–Morgenstern (vN–M) expected utility theory. Limit relative frequencies correspond to probability values in lotteries in the vN–M theory. This correspondence is used to show that each of our axioms is equivalent to the corresponding vN–M axiom in the sense that the former is an exact translation of the latter. As a result, a representation theorem is established: The preference relation is represented by an average of utilities with weights given by the relative frequencies.     

A tangent cone analysis of smooth preferences on a topological vector space

Summary. A theory of smooth preferences on a locally convex, topological vector space is developed by characterizing the existence of a unique supporting hyperplane to a convex set at a given point. The results are expressed in terms of the tangent cone. A new concept of properness, called strict properness, is also proposed to characterize the existence of a strictly supporting hyperplane to a convex set at a given point. We say that strict preferences are properly smooth at a given point provided that they are smooth, strictly proper, and the secant cone has a non-empty interior. Proper smoothness is broadly consistent with Gâteaux-differentiable utility even when the preference domain has an empty interior. Yet proper smoothness also allows the possibility of incomplete or intransitive preferences. This concept has immediate applications to optimization and equilibrium theory. For example, we demonstrate a version of the Second Welfare Theorem for agents with properly smooth preferences.Received: 25 September 2002; revised version: February 5, 2003, Revised: 5 February 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D46, D51.     

Understanding some recent existence results for discontinuous games

We introduce a new condition, weak better-reply security, and show that every compact, locally convex, metric, quasiconcave and weakly better-reply secure game has a Nash equilibrium. This result is established using simple generalizations of classical ideas. Furthermore, we show that, when players’ action spaces are metric and locally convex, it implies the existence results of Reny (Econometrica 67:1029–1056, 1999) and Carmona (J Econ Theory 144:1333–1340, 2009) and that it is equivalent to a recent result of Barelli and Soza (On the Existence of Nash Equilibria in Discontinuous and Qualitative Games, University of Rochester, Rochester, 2009). Our general existence result also implies a new existence result for weakly upper reciprocally semicontinuous and weakly payoff secure games that satisfy a strong quasiconcavity property.     

Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation

The theory of subjective expected utility has been recently extended to allow ambiguity to matter for choice. We propose a notion of absolute ambiguity aversion by building on a notion of comparative ambiguity aversion. We characterize it for a preference model which encompasses some of the most popular models in the literature. We next build on these ideas to provide a definition of unambiguous act and event and show the characterization of the latter. As an illustration, we consider the classical Ellsberg 3-color urn problem and find that the notions developed in the paper provide intuitive answers. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: D81.     

A necessary and sufficient condition for non-emptiness of the core of a non-transferable utility game

It is well-known that a transferable utility game has a non-empty core if and only if it is balanced. In the class of non-transferable utility games balancedness or the more general π-balancedness due to Billera (SIAM J. Appl. Math. 18 (1970) 567) is a sufficient, but not a necessary condition for the core to be non-empty. This paper gives a natural extension of the π-balancedness condition that is both necessary and sufficient for non-emptiness of the core.     

A Model of Procedural Decision Making in the Presence of Risk*

We introduce a procedural model of risky choice in which an individual is endowed with a core preference relation that may be highly incomplete. She can, however, derive further rankings of alternatives from her core preferences by means of a procedure based on the independence axiom. We find that the preferences that are generated from an initial set of rankings according to this procedure can be represented by means of a set of von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions, thereby allowing for incompleteness of preference relations. The proposed theory also yields new characterizations of the stochastic dominance orderings.     

A folk theorem for repeated games with unequal discounting

We introduce a “dynamic non-equivalent utilities” (DNEU) condition and the notion of dynamic player-specific punishments for a general repeated game with unequal discounting, both naturally generalizing the stationary counterparts in Abreu et al. (1994). We show that if the DNEU condition, i.e., no pair of players have equivalent utility functions in the repeated game, is satisfied, then any feasible and strictly sequentially individually rational payoff sequence allows dynamic player-specific punishments. Using this result, we prove a folk theorem for unequal discounting repeated games that satisfy the DNEU condition.     

The minimal dominant set is a non-empty core-extension

A set of outcomes for a transferable utility game in characteristic function form is dominant if it is, with respect to an outsider-independent dominance relation, accessible and closed. This outsider-independent dominance relation is restrictive in the sense that a deviating coalition cannot determine the payoffs of those coalitions that are not involved in the deviation. Each game generates a unique minimal (for inclusion) dominant set. This minimal dominant set is non-empty and returns the coalition structure core in case this core is non-empty. We provide an algorithm to find the minimal dominant set.     

On the microeconomics of diversification under learning

This paper investigates the microeconomics of diversification, based on a two-period model of an owner-managed firm facing uncertainty. The analysis focuses on the role of learning. Economies of diversification are defined based on a certainty equivalent and its decomposition into three components: expected profit (capturing scope effects), the risk premium (measuring the cost of risk aversion), and the value of information associated with learning. For each component, the influence of scale effects, trans-ray concavity effects, and income effects on economies of diversification are examined. By integrating risk, scope and the role of information, the analysis provides new insights into the microeconomics of diversification. While scope economies and risk aversion can provide general incentives for diversification, we argue that information and learning can give incentives to specialize. Implications for economic analysis are discussed.     

Renegotiation-Proof Dynamic Contracts with Private Information

This paper studies the issue of renegotiation in a model of dynamic moral hazard. I introduce the notion of a renegotiation-proof dynamic contract. I show that the constraint of renegotiation-proofness can have the effect of setting a higher lower bound to the set of attainable expected utilities of the agent. This result extends the notion of “credit rationing” from the static models of optimal contracting to a dynamic setting and is useful for thinking about competition for long-term contracts. This result also has implications for the long-run behavior of the expected utility of the agent under dynamic contracting. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 026, 315.     

Invariance of conditional maximum utility

The consumer benefit in a discrete choice model is often measured by maximum utility. We characterize the conditional (on the chosen alternative) and the unconditional distribution of maximum utility. We show that among a wide class of distributions (independent with convex supports) of error terms, the Type I extreme-value distribution is the unique distribution which ensures that all the conditional distributions of maximum utility coincide. Moreover, we show that for i.i.d. (with convex support) error terms, the invariance of conditional expected maximum utility characterizes the multinomial logit model.     

Ex ante efficiency implies incentive compatibility

We show that when agents become informationally negligible in a large economy with asymmetric information, every ex ante efficient allocation must be incentive compatible. This means that any ex ante core or Walrasian allocation is incentive compatible. The corresponding result is false for fixed finite-agent economies with asymmetric information. An example is also constructed to show that the ex post version of the result does not hold. Furthermore, we show that the result is sharp in the sense that it will fail to hold if one relaxes any of the main assumptions, namely, strong conditional independence on the information structure, strict concavity on the utility functions, type independence on the utility functions and endowments.      

ON THE CONCAVITY AND QUASICONCAVITY PROPERTIES OF UTILITY FUNCTIONS

Concavity and quasiconcavity have always been important properties in financial economics particularly in decision problems when an objective function has to be maximized over a convex set. Both properties have mainly been used as purely technical assumptions. In this paper, we link concavity and quasiconcavity of a utility function to the basic concepts of risk aversion, prudence, risk vulnerability and temperance. We show that concavity means the agent is more risk vulnerable than prudent. In particular, we can see when a function is both concave and quasiconcave and when it is only quasiconcave.