Farm Acreage Shocks and Crop Prices: An SVAR Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Biofuels

The last 10?years have seen tremendous expansion in biofuels production, particularly in corn ethanol in the United States, at the same time that commodity prices (e.g., corn) have experienced significant spikes. While supporters claim that biofuels are renewable and carbon-friendly, concerns have been raised about their impacts on land use and food prices. This paper analyzes how US crop prices have responded to shocks in acreage supply; these shocks can be thought of as a shock to the residual supply of corn for food. Using a structural vector auto-regression framework, we examine shocks to a crop??s own acreage and to total cropland. This allows us to estimate the effect of dedicating cropland or non-crop farmlands to biofuels feedstock production. A negative shock in own acreage leads to an increase in price for soybeans and corn. Our calculations show that increased corn ethanol production during the boom production year 2006/2007 explains approximately 27% of the experienced corn price rise.     

Examining crop price effects on production decision and resource allocation: an ex-ante approach

This article examines the output price effects on the US crop production, employing an ex-ante approach to the differential systems of input demand and output supply. The estimation results of the differential input demand show that the expansion of crop production leads to an increase in acreage (i.e. extensive margin) and a proportional rise in input usage improving yield per acre (i.e. intensive margin). The substitutable relationship between fertilizer and land supports that crop producers have an option to choose either intensive or extensive margin in response to changes in their relative prices. In addition, the estimation results of the differential output supply highlight that the composition of crop supply can be altered by changes in ex-ante crop prices. The estimation results suggest that crop producers substitute corn supply for the supply of cotton, wheat and soybeans or vice versa. Based on the estimated elasticities, the decompositions of profit-maximizing input demand are conducted, which reveals that a change in ex-ante crop prices is associated closely with resource reallocation.     

Biofuels and Land Use Change: Sugarcane and Soybean Acreage Response in Brazil

Scientists and economists are increasingly worried that biofuels production is leading to land use changes in the form of competition with food crops or loss of natural ecosystems. I estimate acreage conversion in response to shocks in sugarcane (a biofuels feedstock) and soybean (thought to be affected by United States corn ethanol production) prices in Brazil at a national and regional level. Using county-level data from 1973 to 2005, I consider a dynamic panel data model of input demand for agricultural land, conditioning on price changes of other commodities. The short-run crop-price elasticity of sugarcane acreage in Brazil is estimated to be approximately zero, whereas the elasticity of soybean acreage is 0.9 when both spot and futures prices change. The regional estimates for soybeans show considerable variation, and are highest in areas of ecological importance, such as the cerrado. Sugarcane estimates are more homogeneous. These results should be taken into account in impact assessments of biofuels.     

Joint production,land allocation,and the effects of the production flexibility program

An empirical land allocation model is developed and fit to production data of the top five crops in the USA and to crop output prices adjusted for direct payments and subsidies. The land allocation model based on the theory of the multiproduct firm allows for jointness in production, and it is extended to handle non-allocable inputs. Specifically, the model is used to analyze whether the Food Security Act of 1985, known as the 1985 Farm Bill, increased flexibility in land allocation decisions by comparing responsiveness of land allocation among the crops, before and after the passage of the 1885 Farm Bill, to changes in total land availability and changes in crop output prices. The results confirm that a structural change in land allocation dynamics took place after the passage of the 1985 Farm Bill. We show that more crops (wheat and soybeans, in particular) become more acreage responsive to the changes in total land available for production after 1985. For example, the results indicate that competition for acreage between corn and wheat is associated with the implementation of the 1985 Farm Bill. The results provide evidence that the onset of the increased acreage allocation flexibility by farmers originated in the policies of the 1985 Farm Bill. The study also demonstrates that a policy targeting a particular crop will inadvertently affect production of other crops. This study quantifies these indirect effects on the five major crops grown in the USA.     

Policy reform and farmers' coping strategies: The case of corn price shocks in Heilongjiang Province of China

A substantial decrease in corn prices caused by the policy reform in 2016 in China led to heterogeneous supply responses of corn producers: decreasing corn acreage, making no change in corn acreage, and expanding corn acreage. We investigate the causes and consequences of cropland allocation of the supply responses using the balanced panel data on corn-producing households from 2015 through 2016 in Heilongjiang Province. We find that the corn producers largely acted in accordance with their own household resource endowments to make their choice decisions in response to the corn price shocks. Our results show that the decrease in corn prices led to a small decline in total corn acreage and a considerable increase in total acreage for soybeans and rice in 2016 and that the increase in total soybean acreage was more through area expansion rather than through substitution. Our results also show that crop structure for large-scale producers was more responsive to corn price than for medium- and small-scale producers. Given that continuous corn rotation prevails currently in Heilongjiang, our major finding suggests that the acreages planted to corn and soybeans cannot be easily adjusted by the market.     

A neoclassical model of acreage response for labor-intensive agriculture: The case of Egypt

Acreage response studies of both developed and less developed countries have consistently misspecified the neoclassical model of profit maximization by relying onad hoc models which failed to account properly for the effects of input prices, yield changes and total acreage scale. Using Egyptian aggregate time-series data and maximum-likelihood estimation techniques (of dynamic systems), the present study attempts to model and test the full implications of cultivators rational behaviour as well as the technical and institutional peculiarities of Egyptian agriculture, in the spirit of neoclassical production theory. In addition to prices and government controls, the model introduced the wage rate, productivity changes and total agricultural area as determinants of acreage mix; these variables gain special importance (policy-wise) as we deal with the process of agricultural development in LDCs with labor-intensive agriculture. The estimates obtained are remarkably stable, econometrically sound and, as such, are believed to have come closer to avoiding specification bias than previous studies.     

Estimating input-mix efficiency in a parametric framework: application to state-level agricultural data for the United States

ABSTRACT

This paper contributes to the productivity literature by demonstrating novel econometric methods to estimate input-mix efficiency (IME) in a parametric framework. Input-mix efficiency is defined as the potential improvement in productivity with change in input mix. Any change in input-mix (e.g., land to labou r ratio) will result in change in productivity. The advantage of this approach is that it does not require data on input prices to estimate the mix efficiency levels. A nonlinear input-aggregator function (e.g., Constant Elasticity of Substitution) is used to derive an expression for input-mix efficiency. Bayesian stochastic frontier is estimated for obtaining mix efficiency using US state-level agricultural data for the period 1960–2004. Significant variation in input-mix efficiency is noted across the states and regions, attributable to diverse topographic and geographic conditions. Furthermore, comparisons of allocative and mix efficiencies provide insightful policy implications. The production incentives such as taxes and subsidies could help farmers in adjusting their input mix in response to changes in input prices, which can affect the US agricultural productivity significantly. The proposed methodology can be extended by i) using flexible functional forms; ii) introducing various time- and region-varying input aggregators; and iii) defining more sophisticated weights for input aggregators.     

An assessment of the influence of bioenergy and marketed land amenity values on land uses in the Midwestern US

There is substantial concern that bioenergy policies could swamp other considerations, such as environmental values, and lead to large-scale conversions of land from forest to crops. This study examines how bioenergy and marketed environmental rents for forestland potentially influence land use in the Midwestern US. We hypothesize that current land uses reflect market values for environmental benefits of forestland, so that the marketed component of the environmental value of land can be captured as the difference between Census land values and value of land as a timber asset. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the land use shares of forests, crops and urban in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. The results show that marketed environmental rents increase forestland relative to cropland. To examine the effects of biofuels on land use, we conduct policy analysis by altering future land rents. Our baseline scenario projects that urban development uses mostly cropland, but with higher crop rents resulting from increased demand for bioenergy, there will be significant losses of forestland to urban and cropland. On the other hand, if marketed environmental rents grow while crop rents are maintained at their baseline value, urban growth will occur, primarily at the expense of cropland.     

Security of property rights and transition in land use

Price and yield uncertainty are traditional considerations in agricultural markets and their impact on development. Agricultural producers in transition economies face an additional risk factor – changes in the institutional protection of property rights. This paper illustrates how institutional uncertainty may affect investment, land use, and crop mix patterns. In particular, in the Ukrainian example, the rights of tenants are viewed as uncertain in anticipation of establishment of an open market for sale of agricultural land. Establishment of the land market in Ukraine has been postponed several times over the last 15 years and a significant number of lease contracts are not formalized. A large panel of farm-level data was used to show that a higher share of rented land is associated with a lower share of land used for investment intensive perennial crops controlling for prices and other factors. The difference in response to uncertainty is found to be significant among three crop types: perennials, grains and oil crops. The implication is that the lower level of protection of use rights and uncertainty regarding the future regulation of land sales market lead to under-investments in more capital intensive crops. As a result, tenants deviate from the optimal crop mix, reducing the productivity of tenant farms. Farms under 200 ha are affected most negatively as they are less likely to be able to access the level of legal and political protection enjoyed by large farms.     

Eco-efficient choice of cropping system for reducing nitrate-N leaching in an agricultural watershed

Eco-efficiency analysis framework was used to evaluate joint economic and environmentally optimal N application rates for alternative cropping systems managed in a watershed in Atlantic Canada. Eco-efficiency indexes were estimated as the ratio of economic returns from N fertilizer application to groundwater-N leaching associated with crop production. Trade-offs between crop yield and associated reduction in groundwater-N leaching were also estimated. Data for the analysis were generated using the soil and water analysis tool modeling, and allowed for evaluating crop yield and groundwater-N leaching effects for a given crop in rotations assumed to be managed at varying N fertilizer application rates. The cropping systems evaluated included: (i) corn-based cropping systems involving corn–corn–alfalfa–alfalfa–alfalfa (CCAAA, and CCCAA) rotations; (ii) potato-based cropping systems involving potato–corn–barley–potato–corn (PCBPC and PBWPC); and (iii) vegetable-horticulture cropping system involving potato–winter wheat–carrot–corn. Cropping systems were compared under conventional tillage (CT) and no-till (NT) systems. Estimated eco-efficient N fertilizer rates were substantially lower than current provincial nutrient management plan (NMP)-recommended rates, and estimated maximum economic rate of nitrogen fertilizer. However, the actual amounts depended on the crop and rotation system. CCAAA-CT was the eco-efficient choice of rotation system among the corn-based cropping systems considered. Similarly, PCBPC-CT was the eco-efficient choice among the potato-based production systems. In addition, when the NMP-recommended N rate was replaced by the eco-efficient rate for the vegetable horticulture cropping system, the eco-efficient cropping system shifted from a rotation involving CT to a NT system.     

Jumps and volatility dynamics in agricultural commodity spot prices

The spot commodities market exhibits both extreme volatility and price spikes, which lead to heavy-tailed distributions of price change and autocorrelation. This article uses various Lévy jump models to capture these features in a panel of agricultural commodities observed between January 1990 and February 2014. The results show that Levy jump models outperform the continuous Gaussian model. Our results prove that assuming a constant volatility or even a deterministic volatility and drift structure of agricultural commodity spot prices is not realistic and is less efficient than the stochastic assumption. The findings demonstrate an interesting correlation between volatility and jumps for a given commodity i, but no relationship between the volatility of commodity i and the probability of jumps of commodity j.     

Interdependencies in the energy–bioenergy–food price systems: A cointegration analysis

The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant.     

Modeling Price Volatility Linkages between Corn and Wheat: A Multivariate GARCH Estimation

The present paper attempts an empirical investigation on price volatility linkages between two important agricultural commodities: corn and wheat, by using a multivariate GARCH-BEKK model. Evidence of bidirectional linkages were found between corn and wheat in terms of returns and volatility. Multivariate conditional Student’s-t distribution results show a unidirectional volatility transmission from corn to wheat. Diagnostic tests reveal that the Student’s-t distribution will better model the volatility of returns when compared to the Gaussian distribution. Overall, the results show that the conditional variances and covariances between agricultural commodity market returns exhibit significant changes over time.     

Commodity Prices and the Dynamics of Inflation in Commodity‐Exporting Nations: Evidence from Australia and Canada*

A commodity‐price boom is under way. What does this boom mean for inflation in countries with substantial net commodity exports? The answer depends on movements in commodity prices, changes in foreign exchange rates and the determinants of domestic price inflation. We estimate equations to provide indications of the strength of each of these forces for both Australia and Canada. The results show that world commodity prices move pro‐cyclically with world industrial production and that rates of change in commodity prices are directly related to domestic inflation in both countries. However, there is an offsetting impact of exchange‐rate changes, which is strong enough in the case of Australia, but not Canada, to substantially eliminate the inflationary impact of a commodity‐price boom.     

Economic Impacts of Multiple Agro-Environmental Policies on New Zealand Land Use

This paper investigates the implications of policy on farm income, land use, and the environment when New Zealand landowners face multiple environmental constraints. It also looks at the interaction between climate and nutrient reduction policy and the extent to which one policy can be used to meet the other’s objectives. We use a non-linear, partial equilibrium mathematical programming model of New Zealand land use to assess the economic impacts of climate and water policies at the New Zealand territorial authority level. The spatially explicit agro-environmental economic model estimates changes in land use, agricultural output, land management, and environmental impacts. The policies investigated include a range of carbon prices on land-based emissions ($0–30/tCO\(_{2\mathrm{e}}\)) as well a range of prices on nitrogen leaching from diffuse sources ($0–30/kgN). We estimate that implementing stand-alone greenhouse gas and nutrient emissions reduction policies for the agricultural and forestry sectors will create environmental benefits outside the scope of the policy. However, not all environmental outputs improve, and net farm revenue declines by between 0 and 11%. Simultaneously implementing the two policies results in the desired goals of reductions in nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions with a marginal economic burden on landowners (i.e. 1–2% additional loss in farm profit relative to a stand-alone policy).     

INDUSTRIAL UPGRADE,EMPLOYMENT SHOCK,AND LAND CENTRALIZATION IN CHINA

After 30 years of agricultural reform started in 1978, peasant workers in China are experiencing new changes in their employment, land security, and income inequalities. This article theoretically investigates the relationships among industrial upgrading, mid‐aged peasant nonfarm employment, and land conversion systems. We prove that China's efforts to upgrade its industries generate a negative employment shock on mid‐aged peasant workers, forcing some of them to return to their home villages. The current lump‐sum land acquisition system, however, will neither help peasant workers deal with the adverse employment shock nor promote land centralization for industrial and urban uses. On the contrary, land cooperation, an emerging land centralization system, will help peasant workers mitigate the adverse employment shock and centralize rural land for nonagricultural purposes. (JEL Q15, J43)     

Are Commodity Prices Driven by Fundamentals?

Physical scarcity is hardly sufficient to explain commodity price swings. However, despite of clues of commodity market inefficiency in the last decade, excess volatility in commodity markets emerges only under strong assumptions. When we allow for non‐stationarity in commodity prices and time variation in commodity‐specific risk premia, evidence of commodity market inefficiency becomes significantly weaker. Moreover, there is some evidence of commodity‐specific regime changes in commodity markets, with negligible or even positive correlation between efficiency and market liquidity.     

Increasing returns,land use controls and housing prices in China

The Chinese government has been active in trying to cool the alleged bubbles in its housing markets, especially in urban areas. This paper argues that the high housing prices are partly caused by some real factors, including the policy of restricting land uses, in particular the maintenance of a minimum overall agricultural acreage. A simple model of three sectors (housing, agriculture, and others) is constructed to examine the effects of the artificial constraint. The role of increasing returns in the non-agricultural sectors in exacerbating the policy biases is also examined. The model is then calibrated to estimate the effects of land use control policy on housing prices in China.     

Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets

Market efficiency and unbiasedness are tested in four agricultural commodity futures markets - live cattle, hogs, corn, and soybean meal - using cointegration and error correction models with GQARCH-in-mean processes. Results indicate each market is unbiased in the long run, although cattle, hogs and corn futures markets exhibit short-run inefficiencies and pricing biases. Models for cattle and corn outperform futures prices in out-of-sample forecasting. Results also suggest short-run time-varying risk premiums in cattle and hog futures markets.     

Environmental amenities and agricultural land values: a hedonic model using geographic information systems data

Remote agricultural lands, which include wildlife habitat, angling opportunities and scenic vistas, command higher prices per hectare in Wyoming than those whose landscape is dominated by agricultural production. Geographic information systems (GIS) data are used to measure recreational and scenic amenities associated with rural land. A hedonic price model is specified with GIS measures. It is used to estimate the impact of amenity and agricultural production land characteristics on price per acre for a sample of Wyoming agricultural parcels. Results indicate that the specification performed well across several functional forms. The sampled land prices are explained by the level of both environmental amenities as well as production attributes. Statistically significant amenity variables included scenic view, elk habitat, sport fishery productivity and distance to town. This analysis permits a better estimation of environmental amenity values from hedonic techniques. Improved estimation of amenity values is vital for policies aimed at open space preservation, using agricultural conservation easements and land use conflict resolution.