General consumption constraints and regular economies

In the spirit of Smale’s work, we consider pure exchange economies with general consumption sets. In this paper, the consumption set of each household is described in terms of a function called possibility function. The main innovation comes from the dependency of each possibility function with respect to the individual endowments. We prove that, generically in the space of endowments and possibility functions, economies are regular. A regular economy has a finite number of equilibria, which locally depend on endowments and possibility functions in a continuous manner.     

Can overconfidence explain the consumption hump?

The standard neoclassical life-cycle model predicts that individual consumption should either increase, remain constant or fall monotonically depending on whether the market rate of return on savings is greater than, equal to or less than the discount rate. However, empirical evidence suggests that even after controlling for economic growth and family size, household consumption exhibits a robust hump at around age 45–55, with the ratio of peak consumption to consumption when entering the workforce greater than 1.1. This paper extends the “overconfidence” explanation (Caliendo and Huang, J. Macroecon 30(4):1347–1369, 2008) of this macroeconomic puzzle to a calibrated general equilibrium environment. The main finding is that although it is possible to identify parameter values under which overconfidence alone generates life-cycle consumption profiles and macro-indicators consistent with U.S. experience, quite extreme assumptions about both the magnitude and distribution of overconfidence in the population are generally required to obtain them.     

Necessity of hyperbolic absolute risk aversion for the concavity of consumption functions

Carroll and Kimball (1996) have shown that, in the class of utility functions that are strictly increasing, strictly concave, and have nonnegative third derivatives, hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) is sufficient for the concavity of consumption functions in general consumption-saving problems. This paper shows that HARA is necessary, implying the concavity of consumption is not a robust prediction outside the HARA class.     

Adaptive consumption behavior

In this paper we propose and study a theory of adaptive consumption behavior under income uncertainty and liquidity constraints. We assume that consumption is governed by a linear function of wealth, whose coefficients are revised each period by a procedure that places few informational or computational demands on the consumer. We show that under a variety of settings the procedure converges quickly to a set of coefficients with low welfare cost relative to a fully optimal nonlinear consumption function.     

Does sentiment explain consumption?

This paper examines whether “consumer sentiment,” an often neglected variable, explains consumption expenditures for Australia. Since household consumption accounts for more than 60 percent of U.S. GDP and a similar proportion in other developed economies, fluctuations in consumption may result in significant changes in the state of the economy. Therefore, we develop a theoretical model that suggests why consumer sentiment may influence consumption expenditures. Furthermore, using a carefully specified consumption function as the “test-bed,” we consider empirically whether there is an independent impact of sentiment on consumption. Our results suggest that consumer sentiment does influence variations in consumption expenditure.     

Complexity results for the weak axiom of revealed preference for collective consumption models

The purpose of this paper is to establish the complexity of alternative versions of the weak axiom of revealed preference (warp) for collective consumption models. In contrast to the unitary consumption model, these collective models explicitly take the multi-member nature of the household into account. We consider the three collective settings that are most often considered in the literature. We start with the private setting in which all goods are privately consumed by the household members. Next, we consider the public setting in which all goods are publicly consumed inside the household. Finally, we also consider the general setting where no information on the (private or public) nature of goods consumed in the household is available. We prove that the collective version of warp is np-hard to test for both the private and public settings. Surprisingly, we also find for the general setting that the collective version of warp is easy to test for two-member households.     

The Markov consumption problem

The paper provides a new model of consumption behavior under uncertainty as the solution to a continuous-time dynamic control problem in which an individual moves between employment and unemployment according to a Markov process. Behavior at low asset levels and at break-even points is analyzed. An iterative procedure is developed to derive numerical solutions. The solution takes the form of two curves relating consumption to assets, one for each state of employment.     

Optimal consumption and portfolio rules with intertemporally dependent utility of consumption

In the usual consumption portfolio problem, lifetime utility is assumed to be time-additive. This assumption has been criticized for failing to capture important intertemporal dependencies in utility such as intertemporal risk aversion and habit formation. This paper studies the consumption portfolio problem for a class of intertemporally dependent utility functions.     

Modelling the predictors of young consumers' sustainable consumption intention

Sustainable consumption refers to consumers' socially and environmentally responsible consumption practices. The present study is the first to investigate possible individual, behavioural, and situational factors that predict sustainable consumption intention among young consumers in India. A survey was carried out on 325 young consumers. Structural equation modelling was applied to check the extent to which the considered variables predicted sustainable consumption. The results determined drive for environmental responsibility, subjective norm, and attitude towards sustainable consumption as key predictors of consumers' sustainable consumption intention. The paper offers a better understanding of the main predictors of consumers' sustainable consumption intention. Such understanding may enable managers to design effective marketing strategies to encourage sustainable consumption intention and behaviour.     

Consumer credit and consumption forecasts

Recent advances in the theory of consumer behavior indicate that consumption may exhibit non-linear dynamics characterized by occasional surges. Building upon them, and taking explicitly into account the forward-looking nature of consumption, this paper argues that rising consumer debt can signal such surges, as well as the consumption underprediction which will occur if they are not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting. This insight is tested with and strongly confirmed by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Developments forecasts for the USA. The results should be of interest not only to professional forecasters and policy-makers, but also to theoretical economists and econometricians who study non-linear dynamic models.     

Intergenerational mobility: New evidence from consumption data

The intergenerational persistence of consumption describes the extent to which children inherit the living standards of their parents. Evidence on this parameter is scarce due to limited data on the joint consumption of parents and children. This paper identifies parents who participated in the Danish Expenditure Survey, links them to their children through population‐wide Danish registries, and estimates the intergenerational elasticity of consumption in Denmark. The results suggest that, consistent with intergenerational consumption smoothing, the persistence of consumption across generations is higher than the persistence of earnings and income.     

住宅消费外部性及其治理研究

住宅消费的满足程度不仅取决于自身的居住空间,还受到邻居行为、社区公共环境等影响.分析了住宅消费外部性产生的原因和影响,提出了治理住宅消费外部性的相关对策.     

Online hierarchical forecasting for power consumption data

This paper proposes a three-step approach to forecasting time series of electricity consumption at different levels of household aggregation. These series are linked by hierarchical constraints—global consumption is the sum of regional consumption, for example. First, benchmark forecasts are generated for all series using generalized additive models. Second, for each series, the aggregation algorithm ML-Poly, introduced by Gaillard, Stoltz, and van Erven in 2014, finds an optimal linear combination of the benchmarks. Finally, the forecasts are projected onto a coherent subspace to ensure that the final forecasts satisfy the hierarchical constraints. By minimizing a regret criterion, we show that the aggregation and projection steps improve the root mean square error of the forecasts. Our approach is tested on household electricity consumption data; experimental results suggest that successive aggregation and projection steps improve the benchmark forecasts at different levels of household aggregation.     

Nonparametric tests of collectively rational consumption behavior: An integer programming procedure

We present an IP-based nonparametric (revealed preference) testing procedure for rational consumption behavior in terms of a general collective model, which includes consumption externalities and public consumption. An empirical application to data drawn from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) demonstrates the practical usefulness of the procedure. Finally, we present extensions of the testing procedure to evaluate the goodness-of-fit (accounting for optimization error as well as measurement error) of the collective model subject to testing.     

Implementation of competitive nonlinear pricing: tariffs with inclusive consumption

The paper studies how the optimal nonlinear quantity-payment allocation can be truthfully implemented by optional tariffs in a differentiated goods duopoly. Consumers choose from a menu of tariffs and are subsequently billed according to this. We find that implementation by simple two part tariffs may not be a feasible strategy in a duopoly because the optimal nonlinear tariff exhibits a convexity for lower quantities. We show that the optimal outcome can be implemented if the firms can use two part tariffs with inclusive consumption. The fixed fee includes a free consumption allowance, whereas subsequent consumption is charged according to a steep unit price. That way the firm is able to secure voluntary participation without violating the incentive constraint. The paper shows some examples from the telecommunications industry where firms offer two part tariffs with free call minutes to low demand segments.     

A double-hurdle model of cigarette consumption

This paper shows the importance of the double-hurdle approach for modelling individuals' cigarette consumption, using data from the UK General Household Survey, and argues that participation and consumption should be treated as separate individual choices. The likelihood function for the full double-hurdle is derived, and it is shown how restrictions on the stochastic specification of the model and auxillary information, which identifies ex-smokers, allow it to be decomposed. The empirical results highlight the value of the sample separation information and the need to model starting and quitting as separate decisions.     

Environmental depletion,defensive consumption and negative externalities

This paper analyses economic dynamics in a context in which the production and consumption choices of economic agents generate environmental degradation. Agents can defend themselves from environmental degradation by increasing the production and consumption of output, which is assumed to be a (perfect) substitute for environmental quality. We consider the cases in which agents can coordinate their actions or not, and we show that if the dynamics is conditioned by negative externalities (so that there is no coordination), then a self-reinforcing mechanism may occur leading to production and consumption levels higher than the socially optimal ones. A complete analysis of the dynamics and of the welfare properties of the stationary states is provided.     

What went wrong with the Hungarian consumption function? An econometric investigation of the time series aggregate consumption function for Hungary for 1960–1989

The paper focuses on the time series aggregate consumption function for the Hungarian economy. The empirical econometric analysis presented produces several new results. First, it shows that the income and consumption variables used in this type of model by previous studies are I(2) variables. Consequently, error correction models formulated in terms of their first differences are mis-specified. Second, it provides a strong empirical evidence supporting the view that consumption (and thus saving) was (real) interest rate elastic during the period under investigation, having impact both on the long run and on the short relationships between income and consumption. Third, it provides empirical evidence on choosing the proper income variable in the consumption function. The model selection results clearly supports the model with unadjusted total real money income variable. Fourth, it shows that for the period 1960–1986 a correctly specified and stable error correction model can be established. Finally, the analysis shows that when used for the period beyond 1986, this model suffers from a structural break.     

Does the expansionary government spending crowd out the private consumption?: Cointegration analysis in panel data

That whether expansionary government spending crowds out private consumption is examined by evaluating the intra-temporal elasticity of substitution between them. Using annual data (1981–2000) of 23 OECD countries, a linear deterministic cointegration relation between private consumption, government spending and their relative price is supported. We have two findings: first, the panel estimators plausibly compute the parameter estimates in general. Second, when cross-sectional correlation is considered by using a SUR estimator, the statistical significance of panel cointegration is improved. Thirdly, the intra-temporal elasticity of substitution indicates that government and private consumption are found to be complements, which shows that expansionary government spending does not crowd out private consumption.     

Suppes–Sen maximality of cyclical consumption: The neoclassical growth model

In this paper we demonstrate the existence of cyclical consumption that are maximal according to the Suppes–Sen grading principle for the Aggregative Growth Model. The paper demonstrates the optimality of cyclical consumption paths in the absence of discounting for the smooth neoclassical growth model. The process of this verification allows us to develop the theory of weakly maximal paths for a non-concave and discontinuous utility function extending previous results from Optimal Growth Theory.