Impact of State Exemption Laws on Small Business Bankruptcy Decision

To provide further insights into the current debate on consumer bankruptcy, this article empirically assesses the impact of state bankruptcy exemption levels on the likelihood of small business owners filing for bankruptcy. We estimate a proportional hazard model of small business bankruptcy using a unique panel data set of over 43,000 small business credit card holders over a two-year period from May 2000 to May 2002. Overall, our results indicate that for every $10,000 increase in a state's homestead exemptions, the risk of small business bankruptcy increases by 8%. Moreover, we also find that the likelihood of small business owners filing for bankruptcy will rise by 4% with a $1000 increase in personal property exemption levels.     

Firms’ activity risk under a knowledge economy

Processes of growing uncertainty and risks in economics are analyzed against a broad background of the “civilizational shift” and globalization. The rapid ageing of equipment, technologies and knowledge leads to numeric growth of bankruptcies and the intensification of their destructive effects. Their mitigation would be possible if an institutional system of threat monitoring and prevention were created. The case is presented for revision of existing bankruptcy laws towards the readjustment of enterprises, not just their debt repayment to creditors. The author comes to the conclusion about an increase of the state’s role in shaping the educational environment of enterprises and the need to synchronize micro-and macroeconomic policies.     

The debts of James VI of Scotland1

James VI (1567–1625) was chronically indebted, and this caused him frequent problems. This article presents two series of systematic data that together indicate the main contours of his indebtedness: (1) end‐of‐year deficits, and (2) hived‐off debts which the Crown left unpaid for long periods (sometimes permanently). The hived‐off debts, reconstructed individually, constitute a narrative of fiscal policy‐making. Instead of a large and catastrophic bankruptcy, James in effect had numerous small bankruptcies. He benefited from an emerging structure of Scottish domestic credit. He eventually repaid many of his debts after succeeding to the English throne in 1603.     

Revisiting the empirical existence of the Phillips curve for India

This paper revisits the empirical existence of the Phillips curve in the Indian context. To estimate the Phillips curve we need two variables: inflation and the output gap. In the case of India, incorrect measurement of both variables causes much difficulty in estimating the Phillips curve. We use a non-linear Kalman filter approach to estimate the output gap and find that the Kalman filter estimate captures all the dynamics of the economy. Our results show that after taking supply shocks into consideration, there is clear evidence as to the existence of the Phillips curve in India for recent years.     

Parameter instability, superexogeneity, and the monetary model of the exchange rate

Parameter Instability, Superexogeneity and the Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate. — This paper argues that failure to test for parameter time invariance yields misleading results. Time heterogeneity other than unit roots will make the parameters of the unrestricted system unstable and statistical inference invalid. However, if the instability stems from a particular subset of variables (superexogenous with respect to the parameters of interest), conditioning on them results in a partial model with stable parameters, and standard inferential procedures can then be used. We apply this methodology to test the monetary model of the exchange rate and find that both system and single-equation estimates support it in the case of yen-dollar exchange rate.     

Credit Contagion and Trade Credit: Evidence from Small Business Data in Japan

The present study investigates whether credit contagion leads to a decrease in trade credit for small businesses. In 1997–1998, the Japanese economy experienced a deep recession, and the domino effect caused an increase in the number of dishonored bills and bankruptcy filings. During a period of credit contagion, the possibility of default increases for firms with more financial claims and lower cash holdings. We find that during a recession, trade payables for small businesses with higher trade receivables and lower cash holdings are reduced. The hypothesis that the effects of credit risk on trade payables are weakened is not supported.     

Monetary operations by Hong Kong's Currency Board

Currency Boards are typically seen as demonstrating the advantages of rule-bound monetary policies with automatic responses to exchange market imbalances. We study the monetary operations conducted by Hong Kong's Currency Board, using daily data between September 1998 and December 2001. Since this regime is one-sided in that there is a commitment to sell, but not to buy, US dollars at a given rate, we estimate logit equations for dollar purchases. We show that these have shifted over time and that while the variables are statistically highly significant, the predictive power is low.     

Capital structure and short-term decisions

Share price pressure can lead to managerial myopia as managersface incentives to make short-run decisions. We show how long-rundebt can negate myopic behavior by serving as an incentive tohave high future earnings in order to avoid the risk of bankruptcy.We show how increases in leverage could have been a signal inresponse to growing share price pressure in the 1980s. We obtaina theory of capital structure whose predictions are in linewith recent empirically observed patterns. We demonstrate thebenefits of high bankruptcy penalties in inducing efficientdecision making, and show how debt may, ex post, lead to inefficientdecisions being taken in an effort to pay it off. This ex postconsequence of debt can potentially undermine its ex ante incentivebenefits.     

Regulatory Protection and Opportunistic Bankruptcy*

We document controlling shareholder (insider) opportunism in an insolvency regime that uses an accounting rule to determine bankruptcy eligibility. Our study sheds light on managerial incentives induced by weak investor protection laws. Using unique data on bankrupt firms from an emerging market, consistent with our prediction, we show insiders intentionally manage earnings downward to understate firm net worth so as to be able to file for bankruptcy. Downward pre-bankruptcy earnings management is associated with more payments to insiders and weaker performance, post-filing. A battery of tests suggests our results cannot be fully explained as an artifact of financial distress. Rather, they are consistent with insiders exploiting weak investor protection to extract private benefits at the expense of lenders and outside shareholders. Our study serves as a cautionary tale for all insolvency regimes that use a balance sheet test in an environment with weak creditor protection.     

银行分项监管对银行风险的影响——基于发展中国家数据的实证分析

基于43 个发展中国家357 家银行数据,运用系统GMM 方法,研究银行分项监管对银行风险的影响。其中,银行监管包括12 类分项监管,银行风险包括总体风险、信用评级风险和破产风险。回归结果显示：资本监管、内部管理监管、存款保险监管、信息披露监管和监管效率5 类分项监管均能降低3 类银行风险。其他分项监管能降低1 到2 类银行风险,即准入监管能够降低总体风险,增加信用评级风险;所有权监管会增加信用评级风险,降低破产风险;外部审计监管增加银行总体风险和破产风险,降低信用评级风险;流动性监管降低银行破产风险,对总体风险、信用评级风险不显著;资产分类和处置监管降低总体风险、信用评级风险,但增加破产风险;退出监管增加银行总体风险、信用评级风险,降低银行破产风险。本文的研究对我国加强银行监管,降低银行风险有很强的现实参考意义。     

ESTIMATING SARB'S POLICY REACTION RULE

This paper uses a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to estimate the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) policy reaction rule. We find that the SARB has a stable rule very much in line with those estimated for Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand. Relative to other emerging economies the policy reaction function of the SARB appears to be much more stable with a consistent anti inflation bias, a somewhat larger weight on output and a very low weight on the exchange rate.     

Inflation and Market Uncertainty in South Africa

Comparison of the movements in the VIX index, the rand – dollar exchange rate and South African CPI inflation reveals a striking resemblance between them, raising the question as to whether or not there is an empirical relationship among them. The aim of this paper is to determine whether or not changes in market uncertainty, as reflected in the VIX index, influence South African inflation. Given that the VIX index reflects market uncertainty, its impact on the inflation rate may differ between times of heightened uncertainty and normality, thus suggesting the presence of multiple regimes. To cater for this possibility, the analysis first uses the general‐to‐specific procedure (including squared and cubed values of dependent and independent variables) with impulse indicator saturation dummies to look for non‐linear behaviour in the form of statistically significant squared and cubed variables and clustered periods of outlier dummies that might reflect an alternative regime. Finding such periods, the analysis next uses a Markov‐switching model to model this non‐linear behaviour explicitly. The results show that market volatility as measured by the VIX indeed explains South African inflation. Moreover, as shown by the second regime of the Markov‐switching model, when market volatility is elevated, its influence on inflation also increases.     

Asian finance and the role of bankruptcy: a model of the transition costs of financial liberalization

The degree to which bankruptcy is permitted to play a role in the allocation of capital is a key distinction of the state-directed financial regime of Japan, South Korea, and many other Asian economies. Focusing on the development and characteristics of the Japanese main-bank system and comparing it to the Anglo-American approach, this paper discusses the two approaches to finance and argues that a major problem with the bank-finance model used in many Asian countries is its minimization of bankruptcy risks. A three-sector development model is described and simulated to compare the outcomes of the two approaches separately and then to evaluate the transition costs of switching from a state-directed to a market-directed financial regime. The simulation results suggest that the market approach results in a higher long-run growth path because it eliminates inefficient firms through bankruptcy. The results also suggest that switching from a state-directed to a market-directed model can be very costly to the economy. These transition costs can be lowered by a phased-in liberalization but are increased by delay. We then discuss the policy implications.     

Dynamic Spillovers in the United States: Stock Market,Housing, Uncertainty,and the Macroeconomy

In this study, we examine dynamic spillovers among the housing market, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States in a unified empirical framework. Applying the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology on monthly data over the period 1987M1–2014M11, our findings reveal the following features. First, the transmission of various types of shocks contributes significantly to economic fluctuations in the United States. Second, spillovers show large variations over time. Third, in the wake of the global financial crisis, spillovers have been exceptionally high in historical perspective. In particular, we find large spillovers from EPU, as well as stock market and housing returns to other variables, in particular inflation, industrial production and the federal funds rate. These results illustrate the contagion from the housing and financial crisis to the real economy and the strong policy reaction to stabilize the economy.     

Dilemma of the Silver Standard Economies: The Case of China

Exchange rate commitments implied in the silver standard originally anchored China's monetary policy and the inflation rate in the early republican period. It was believed that China's free silver standard acted as a natural check on the excessive issuing of notes by warlords and local governments. This consensus view, however, overlooks the fact that the silver standard was inherently unstable because it left no room for monetary policy to stabilize output and inflation. This article employs a formal structural model to show that a fiat currency unlinked to fluctuations in the price of silver that allows government to implement self‐adjusting monetary policies would further stabilize China's output and inflation.     

ASSESSING MONETARY POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA IN A DATA‐RICH ENVIRONMENT

This paper examines the efficacy of monetary policy in the South African economy using a data‐rich framework. We use the Factor‐Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) methodology, which contains 110 monthly variables for the period 1985:02‐2007:11. The results, based on impulse‐response functions, provide no evidence of the price puzzle observed in traditional Structural Vector Autoregressive analysis and confirm that monetary policy in South Africa is effective in stabilising prices. Unlike the traditional vector autoregressive approach, the FAVAR methodology allows further analysis of a large number of variables. Variables from real and financial variables react negatively to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Finally, we find evidence of the importance of a confidence channel transmission following a monetary policy shock.     

Historical Decomposition of Aggregate Demand and Supply Shocks in a Small Macro Model

We estimate and analyze the impact of multiple aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in a small macroeconomic model of the economy. The analysis serves two purposes. First, we assess the relative importance of the various shocks in explaining the path of output over the past three decades. Second, we conduct counterfactual policy experiments which show the effects of alternative policies on key macro variables. We find that using the monetary policy tool (reserves or the base) such that constant money growth occurs would have produced superior economic results.     

Credit Rating Agency and Equity Analysts’ Adjustments to GAAP Earnings

Moody's analysts and sell‐side equity analysts adjust GAAP earnings as part of their research. We show that adjusted earnings definitions of Moody's analysts are significantly lower than those of equity analysts when companies exhibit higher downside risk, as measured by volatility in idiosyncratic stock returns, volatility in negative market returns, poor earnings, and loss status. Relative to the adjusted earnings definitions of equity analysts, adjusted earnings definitions of Moody's analysts better predict future bankruptcies, yet they fare significantly worse in predicting future earnings and operating cash flows. These findings persist after controlling for optimism incentives of analysts, reporting incentives of companies, credit rating levels, and industry and year effects. Our findings suggest that credit rating agencies cater to their clients’ demand for a more conservative interpretation of company‐reported performance than what is offered by equity analysts.     

Silver fetters? The rise and fall of the Chinese price level 1928–34

We show how the silver standard transmitted world silver price fluctuations into China and made the Chinese price level closely linked to the world silver price. Inflation was transmitted between 1929 and 1931 when the world silver price was falling; while deflation was transmitted during 1932 and 1934 when the world silver price was rising. Using micro-level evidence and counterfactual simulations, we show that the exchange rate was the main shock transmission channel, and silver stocks played an insignificant role.     

Fiscal risks and their impact on banks' capital buffers in South Africa

South Africa's fiscal balances have deteriorated significantly over the last decade, although the economy has been recording disappointing economic growth rates even prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we estimate a series of equations to test how sovereign risk premia affect capital buffers, while controlling for variables identified in the literature, such as size of banks and the economic cycle. Unlike other studies, we use actual capital buffers. We show that these are substantively different to the proxy buffers calculated using the common approach in the literature, indicating that results based on proxy measures should be interpreted with caution. Our overall results show a positive relationship between the sovereign risk premium and capital buffers. This suggests that banks are accumulating capital to mitigate against fiscal and other domestic policy risks. It is likely that this is contributing to higher lending rates.