P2P网络借贷市场信用风险识别

近年来,P2P网络借贷市场成为我国金融领域的重灾区,各类问题层出不穷,不仅损害了投资者利益,而且严重扰乱了我国的金融秩序,深入研究P2P网络借贷市场存在的问题具有重要现实意义。P2P网络借贷市场是信息不对称最为严重的市场之一,对借款人信用风险进行识别是P2P网络借贷的关键环节。根据信用风险定价理论,借贷利率应该充分反映违约风险,通过检验借贷利率与违约风险之间的关系可以验证借贷市场信用风险识别机制的有效性。基于“人人贷”平台公开的历史交易数据对P2P网络借贷市场的信用风险识别问题进行实证研究,结果表明:借贷利率能部分反映借款人的信用风险,但在相同的利率水平下,其他指标与违约风险也存在显著性关系,表明相同的利率未对应相同的信用风险,平台的信用风险识别机制部分有效。进一步研究表明,在缺乏成熟、易用的个人征信产品的情况下,无论借款人、P2P平台,还是投资者,对信用风险影响因素的判断与实际情况都存在一定的偏差,工作经验丰富的借款人付出了过高的借贷成本,平台在判断收入对信用风险的影响方面出现了偏差,投资者则忽视了借款人学历的价值。建议打破个人征信数据壁垒,丰富个人征信产品,保护居民信用数据安全,以保障借贷市场的持续发展。     

The global financial crisis and Islamic finance

The conventional view holds that the current global financial crisis was caused by extraordinarily high liquidity, reckless lending practices, and the rapid pace of financial engineering, which created complex and opaque financial instruments used for risk transfer. There was a breakdown of the lender‐borrower relationship and informational problems caused by a lack of transparency in asset market prices, particularly in the market for structured credit instruments. There was outdated, lax, or absent regulatory‐supervisory oversight; faulty risk management and accounting models; and the emergence of an incentive structure that not only encouraged excessive risk taking but also created a complicit coalition of financial institutions, real estate developers and appraisers, insurance companies, and credit rating agencies whose actions led to a deliberate underpricing of risk. Such a crisis would not have occurred under an Islamic financial system—due to the fact that most, if not all, of the factors that have caused or contributed to the development and spread of the crisis are not allowed under the rules and guidance of Shariah. The current global financial crisis is largely seen as a real test of the resilience of the Islamic financial services industry and its ability to present itself as a more reliable alternative to the conventional financial system. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Credit lender–borrower relationship in the credit card market – Implications for credit risk management strategy and relationship marketing

Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in 2008, precipitating the international financial crisis. Many questioned the banks’ risk-taking credit system. Understanding credit risk and how the credit system functions may provide knowledge on managing credit, to avoid another such international crisis. We study the credit card field and present a pricing decision model for managing credit risk. Recent credit lenders’ portfolio re-pricing practices call for immediate attention to the credit lender–borrower relationship and relationship marketing. A literature review and recent phenomena in the credit card industry reveal that the lenders’ re-pricing strategy negatively affects the credit lender–borrower relationship and relationship marketing. Thus, we introduce a pricing decision model incorporating the lenders’ re-pricing strategy and the credit lender–borrower relationship. Further, we discuss the implications of, and the role of marketing in, credit risk management and the implications of relationship marketing for credit lenders in foreign markets, including the US market.     

Market power in banking,countercyclical margins and the international transmission of business cycles

By introducing an imperfectly competitive banking sector into a standard two-country, two-good RBC model with complete asset markets, we study the international transmission of aggregate TFP shocks in an environment with noncompetitive financial intermediation. In this model, price-cost margins in a global loan market are endogenous and countercyclical. As a result, a positive TFP shock in one country spills over to another through a reduction in the global cost of both credit and externally financed investment. The quantitative analysis shows that countercyclical margins on loans play a key role in bringing the predictions of the theory closer to the observed cross-country cyclical co-movements of consumption, employment, investment and output. Recessions are deeper when the cost of credit rises during these economic downturns. Thus, a financial accelerator arises in our framework, unveiling the increased importance of stabilization policies in economies where margins in credit markets are countercyclical.     

Credit access for high-risk borrowers in financially concentrated markets: Do SBA loan guarantees help?

The Small Business Administration's (SBA) loan guarantee program was established to correct financial capital market inefficiencies and improve small business access to financial capital. However, the SBA loan guarantee program has been criticized for its failure to improve the performance of financial capital markets available to small businesses. This study considers the financial capital market failure created by lenders' monopoly power (specifically, financial market concentration) in financial capital markets. Based on this potential market failure, a model is derived to evaluate the behavior of lenders and borrowers in financial capital markets. Using the national Survey of Small Business Finance, this study compares the financial characteristics of small business borrowers with and without SBA loan guarantees, and provides a qualitative assessment of the SBA's ability to correct financial capital market inefficiencies. When considering only the interaction between borrower quality and the degree of financial market concentration, high-risk borrowers in high concentration financial markets have a higher probability of receiving an SBA loan guarantee than low-risk borrowers in low concentration financial markets. However, when other factors influencing the demand for financial capital are included in the model, only the borrower attributes (credit risk and age) are significant. While the SBA loan guarantee program appears to partially mitigate the effects of the market failure caused by financial market concentration for high-risk borrowers, the program appears to be better designed to address borrower risk, rather than credit market failure.     

黑龙江省农村信用社发展小额诚信贷款问题的研究

目前,黑龙江省农村信用社的发展还处于较低水平,发展过程还存在诸多问题.农村信用社总体上信贷规模小,资金供给不足;风险防范意识薄弱,缺乏市场竞争思想;产权归属不明,内部管理混乱.应借鉴国内发达省市经验,开展金融产品和服务创新,扩大存、贷款规模;以市场为导向,以赢利为目标,以利率为杠杆,减轻市场风险,维持农信社的持续经营;加快变革农村信用社的产权制度,明晰产权归属,完善法人治理结构;有效建立信用评级组织,开展政策性保险,以多渠道防范小额信贷的信用风险.     

商业银行信贷风险管理的粗糙集方法

随着金融市场的全球化及其波动性的加剧,商业银行信贷风险的管理受到国内外金融界广泛关注,信贷风险的评估更是成为研究的焦点。运用粗糙集理论,从信贷历史数据出发,对商业银行的信贷风险管理进行研究。研究的目的是找出蕴涵在历史数据背后的规律,力图为金融风险管理部门建立合理的评估体系提供理论指导,为商业银行的信贷决策提供依据。     

Pricing and issuance dependencies in structured financial product portfolios

We exploit a unique sample of structured financial products (SFPs) to analyze pricing and issuance dependencies among different types of such market-linked investment vehicles. Our study provides evidence of cross-pricing between products with complementary payoff profiles. Such dependencies may be explained by issuers’ efforts to generate order flow for products that supplement their current SFP risk exposure. Additionally, we observe issuance patterns in line with the argument that issuers exploit the complementarity payout profiles when bringing SFPs to market. Our study emphasizes cross-pricing from a perspective not previously considered in the literature.     

Hedging under counterparty credit uncertainty

This study investigates optimal production and hedging decisions for firms facing price risk that can be hedged with vulnerable contracts, i.e., exposed to nonhedgeable endogenous counterparty credit risk. When vulnerable forward contracts are the only hedging instruments available, the firm's optimal level of production is lower than without credit risk. Under plausible conditions on the stochastic dependence between the commodity price and the counterparty's assets, the firm does not sell its entire production on the vulnerable forward market. When options on forward contracts are also available, the optimal hedging strategy requires a long put position. This provides a new rationale for the hedging role of options in the over‐the‐counter markets exposed to counterparty credit risk. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28: 248–263, 2008     

Securitization: A Financing Vehicle for All Seasons?

Securitization is considered to be one of the biggest financial innovations of the last century. It is also regarded as both a catalyst and a solution to the 2008 financial crisis. Once a popular method of financing the mortgage and consumer credit markets, aspects of the global securitization market are now struggling to revive. In this paper, I discuss the role that ethics played in securitization prior to the 2008 financial crisis and find that it is not an obvious story of moral failures, but rather that it lies in more subtle elements of the financial system. The ethics uncertainty role in the securitization story is one of flawed incentives and the shifting of responsibility for handling risk. The role of securitization and the ethics of risk transfer have rarely been discussed explicitly in the literature. The historical origins of securitization and lessons learned from previous flawed uses of the process are also provided. I also detail the various global institutional reform proposals that have taken place. Moving forward, it is crucial to understand the causes, consequences, and ethical implications of securitization in the financial crisis so as to help individuals and managers better assess risk, align incentives, and design appropriate policy responses.     

Errare humanum est: Financial Literacy in European Consumer Credit Law

Examples of financial mistakes made by consumers lend support to the view that systematic mistakes of consumers exist in the EU credit market and that service providers respond strategically to these by redesigning their products. This paper seeks to determine how existing regulation can be improved to ensure consumer protection. Using insights from behavioural economics, this paper argues that financial literacy??that is, knowledge and understanding of complex financial products and skills to navigate the financial market??as a cornerstone for European financial consumer law is problematic. Current regulation is based primarily on information provision to consumers, which should enable them to make appropriate decisions about the risks and suitability of financial products. Although behavioural economics does not necessarily require legal intervention to take other forms than the introduction of information duties, the type of intervention is dependent on the design and needs of a particular market. The EU consumer credit market, in our view, demands more than the current regulation offers in terms of consumer protection. In particular, behavioural studies reveal that consumers generally do not have a sufficient level of financial literacy in order to enable them to make informed, rational decisions. Moreover, behavioural biases have a distorting influence on consumer decision making. The law as it stands, therefore, seems ill-equipped to offer protection to consumers and to prevent them from rash and bad decision making. Reviewing existing regulation and case law, we propose that in the EU law, the Consumer Credit Directive and the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive require updating in order to offer sufficient protection to vulnerable groups of consumers who, on average, have low levels of financial literacy.     

宏观调控背景下我国房地产金融创新的理论逻辑及影响

各类房地产金融创新为开发商和购房者提供了充足的金融支持,出现这一局面的根本原因在于房地产市场是一个生产者主权市场。这些金融创新不仅抑制了房地产金融调控效果,还在商品房供给增加的同时推动房价不断上升,使得房地产市场和房地产金融市场风险加速聚集。对此应改变房地产调控思路,增加供给,管理预期,转变银行的信贷管理思路,加强对非银行金融机构的房地产金融业务监管。     

怎样看待全球危机下中国信贷超高增长

2008年11月以来,中国信贷增长是一种超高超常增长,虽然在特定背景下有合理的成果,但在节奏、区间和质量上仍属于数量增长型．对其效应还需要从结构特点上作进一步分析。中国针对全球金融危机的特定背景,按照扩内需、调结构、保增长的总政策,信贷超常增长也是必需的。现行信贷超高增长具有大趋动、大集中、大畸形、大追赶和大隐忧的属性,调整这些属性的根本出路在于转变信贷增长方式,即改革现行的信贷资源配置机制体制,调整信贷投向,完善信贷结构,调整金融机构的市场定位,创造相应的信贷生态环境。     

黑龙江省金融创新支持现代农业发展问题的研究

现代农业发展为金融创新的延伸和拓展提供了空间,也对金融服务手段、方式和理念提出了新要求。目前,黑龙江省的金融创新,支持了现代农业发展,拓宽了农村抵押担保物的范围,奠定了现代农业发展的基础。同时,也存在农村信用社没有找准定位、贷款利率缺乏一定的灵活性、农村金融服务和金融产品创新力度进展缓慢等问题。为促进现代农业经济发展,黑龙江省应推行金融创新机制,创新金融服务模式,发展绿色信贷业务,支持生态农业发展。     

新冠肺炎疫情后各国主权债务风险及其前景

新冠肺炎疫情及其经济冲击促使许多国家财政赤字率和政府债务率大幅升高,其影响程度超过了2008年国际金融危机。笔者既不赞成现代货币理论(MMT)的看法,也不认同悲观派的看法。从影响各国主权债务风险的几大因素看,一些新兴市场经济体尤其需要关注利率的3种风险溢价:通胀风险溢价、货币贬值风险溢价和信誉(违约风险)溢价。展望未来,发达经济体和新兴市场经济体将花费数年时间进行财政收支和政府债务调整,以渐进方式推进政府部门的去杠杆。     

信用衍生品CDO对金融市场稳定性的影响研究

文章主要研究欧洲信用衍生产品CDO(Collateralized Debt Obligation,担保债务凭证)的发行对金融市场稳定性的影响.文章对CDO的发行量、市场波动率及欧洲6月期无风险利率与金融市场稳定性的关系采用联合极值的方法,建立泊松计数模型,并做实证分析,结果显示:金融中介之间的联动效应会增加金融市场的系统性风险;CDO发行量仅与负的联合极值显著正相关,表明CDO发行量越大对金融稳定性冲击越大.CDO发行量与正的联合极值不相关,说明CDO对银行进行风险管理的积极作用有限.此外,信息不对称程度及无风险利率也会对金融市场的稳定性产生影响.     

中国房地产市场过热与风险预警

从消费与投资两方面来说，1998年以来中国房地产市场的快速发展仅是以往“存量需求”的释放，而不是潜在需求真正地转化为有效需求。这一过程又主要依赖于银行信贷的支撑和代际收益的转移，这自然导致了中国房地产市场的虚假繁荣和价值的严重高估，造成房地产市场资产价格与价值的严重背离和房地产泡沫的出现。面对中国房地产价格快速飚升的威胁，为了避免房地产价格波动影响金融稳定以及国内经济的未来发展，首先要从金融体系的稳定性入手，建立房地产价格失衡预警指标体系、建立金融体系与宏观经济失衡的预警指标并提高金融机构风险测量能力。同时政府要在土地政策、信贷政策、税收政策和住房政策等方面采取积极的应对措施。     

加强我国银行业风险管理提高商业银行核心竞争力

处于市场激烈竞争条件下的商业银行,核心竞争力是生存的一个关键因素。我国商业银行目前面对利率流动性及操作等风险及外资银行以及其他银行的竞争。我国商业银行为求发展,必须克服自身的种种弊端,加强风险管理,组织起有机统一的能力集合体,加快产品开发,进行金融创新,提升核心竞争力,应对行业的挑战。     

信贷周期的形成及其对金融稳定的影响——行为金融学的剖析

银行家像普通投资者那样也是有限理性者。在经济波动出现上行拐点和下行拐点时,由于银行家的认知偏差,银行贷款市场上会出现群体性多贷和群体性拒贷的两次羊群行为,造成信贷扩张与紧缩并形成信贷周期,不仅给银行造成了大量的不良贷款,也对金融稳定产生了严重的影响。要熨平信贷周期,消除银行贷款市场上的羊群行为,宏观调控要消弥市场预期归一化的形成,政府要加强信息披露并提供有市场公信力的信息产品,要使商业银行重视行业走势的研究,并改变银行家的报酬结构。     

新形势下中小型外贸企业财务风险管理研究

随着人民币不断升值,汇率波动直接影响我国中小型外贸企业实际收汇,国内通货膨胀趋势明显,成本上升减少出口盈利,国际贸易保护主义抬头使中小型外贸企业因面临销售风险而遭受损失。宏观经济形势复杂,利率的波动增加了企业的筹资风险,国外进口商的信用缺失使中小型外贸企业坏账损失风险加大。中小型外贸企业应该采取加强出口结算方式的灵活性,利用金融衍生市场套期保值,多渠道、多方位拓展海外市场,提高风险意识,建立内部信用风险管理体系,拓展融资渠道,加强资金管理,合理运用出口信用保险,减少坏账损失等方法减少财务风险。