从投入产出视角看城乡经济关系的发展与演变

利用矩阵分解技术,证明了农业经济产出过程农业内部乘数效应、外部乘数效应和城市涓滴效应共同决定。在对北京1985—2007年的投入产出分析的基础上,对城乡经济关系得出新的理解：在城镇化和市场化初期,农业经济的大部分收益来自于城镇的涓滴作用;随着城镇飞速发展,城乡二元结构对比强烈,农业的绝大部分收益来自农业内部;最后,在食品安全、生态保育和一系列社会问题以及经营者在农村寻求经济机会的推动下,农业和城市经济开始结合,城市反哺农业。研究表明,在各个时期,农业经济的发展在很大程度上依赖于城市经济,在市场化初期这种程度在60%—70%左右,而在今后的城乡一体化发展阶段,农业的绝大部分收益会来自于城市经济的涓滴作用,农业的食品、生态和社会功能应摆在优先重要位置。     

Assessing the Employment Impacts of Environmental and Natural Resource Policy

This paper provides an introductory guide for environmental andresource economists to methods of assessing the impact of environmentaland natural resource policy on employment. It examines five basicapproaches to evaluating the effect of a policy action on employment:1) supply and demand analysis of the affected sector; 2) partialequilibrium analysis of multiple markets; 3) fixed-price, generalequilibrium simulations (input-output (I-O) and social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier models); 4) non-linear, general equilibriumsimulations (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models); and 5) econometric estimation of the adjustment process, particularly timeseries analysis. The basic modeling structure and data requirementsfor each of these approaches are described. Simple examples of theirapplication to evaluation of environmental and natural resourcepolicy are developed and the relative merits and applicability of each are discussed.     

ESTIMATION ERROR IN SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS IN THE ABSENCE OF A DOMESTIC COEFFICIENTS MATRIX IN THE INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS

The objective of the paper is to develop various estimation methods for allocating imports according to their end-use and to make use of the derived domestic transactions for the estimation of gross domestic output and employment by sectors. The standard design in the construction of input-output tables is to provide imports of a sector in the form of a column. These imports are not allocated according to their final use and therefore, total intermediate inputs consist of both domestic and imported inputs. The input-output tables for 12 European countries distinguish three types of transactions: (a) domestically produced inputs; (b) imported inputs; and (c) total inputs. We have made use of these tables assuming that the information on import allocation by end-use and domestically produced and imported inputs separately are not available. The allocations of imports are made under various assumptions and a comparison is made of employment based on artificially generated domestic coefficients with employment based on actual coefficients. The sectors are ranked on the basis of both sets of results. In addition, the ratio of indirect to direct employment for the estimators and actual is derived. The sectors are ranked and the rank correlations between alternative estimators and actual are calculated. Although the ratios differ markedly from method to method, the ranks do not alter.     

A New Matrix Theorem: Interpretation in Terms of Internal Trade Structure and Implications for Dynamic Systems

Economic systems often are described in matrix form as x = Mx. We present a new theorem for systems of this type where M is square, nonnegative and indecomposable. The theorem discloses the existence of additional economic relations that have not been discussed in the literature up to now, and gives further insight in the economic processes described by these systems. As examples of the relevance of the theorem we focus on static and dynamic closed Input-Output (I-O) models. We show that the theorem is directly relevant for I-O models formulated in terms of difference or differential equations. In the special case of the dynamic Leontief model the systems behavior is shown to depend on the properties of matrix M = A + C where A and C are the matrices of intermediate and capital coefficients, respectively. In this case, C is small relative to A and a perturbation result can be employed which leads directly to a statement on the systems eigenvalues. This immediately suggests a solution to the well-known problem of the instability of the dynamic Leontief model.     

宏观经济景气波动对就业增长的影响

中国不成熟的市场经济和特殊的人口环境使得用就业弹性和奥肯定律均无法有效反映我国经济增长与就业关系,更无法刻画经济波动对就业的冲击。本文从宏观经济景气波动影响就业增长的三个路径：劳动力供给、劳动力需求和政府公共就业政策来建立系统的分析模型,以探析经济波动与就业增长的长期均衡关系和滞后冲击效应。在劳动力供给系统中,经济波动使经济活动人口增多,加快了就业增长;在劳动力需求系统中,经济波动不利于经济增长,从而不利于劳动力需求增长;在政府就业促进政策系统中,社会保障和就业的投入缓和了经济波动对就业增长的冲击。     

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro-drivers (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops.     

Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the U.S. Economy: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of various influences on carbon dioxide emissions. It incorporates methodological refinements of input-output structural decomposition analysis, which is the examination of economic change by means of a set of comparative static variations in key parameters of I-O tables. The analysis is performed using a two-tiered KLEM model, which allows for estimation of substitution and technological change effects within and between input aggregates. The model is used to decompose the sources of change in CO₂ emissions in the U.S. over the 1972–82 timeframe using hybrid energy/value tables for the initial and terminal years. Results show the significant effect of substitution within the energy sector and between energy and other inputs as the leading causes of the decline in carbon dioxide emissions.     

Cohort versus patient level simulation for the economic evaluation of single versus combination immuno-oncology therapies in metastatic melanoma

Abstract

Background: Model structure, despite being a key source of uncertainty in economic evaluations, is often not treated as a priority for model development. In oncology, partitioned survival models (PSMs) and Markov models, both types of cohort model, are commonly used, but patient responses to newer immuno-oncology (I-O) agents suggest that more innovative model frameworks should be explored.

Objective: A discussion of the theoretical pros and cons of cohort level vs patient level simulation (PLS) models provides the background for an illustrative comparison of I-O therapies, namely nivolumab/ipilimumab combination and ipilimumab alone using patient level data from the CheckMate 067 trial in metastatic melanoma. PSM, Markov, and PLS models were compared on the basis of coherence with short-term clinical trial endpoints and long-term cost per QALY outcomes reported.

Methods: The PSM was based on Kaplan-Meier curves from CheckMate 067 with 3-year data on progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The Markov model used time independent transition probabilities based on the average trajectory of PFS and OS over the trial period. The PLS model was developed based on baseline characteristics hypothesized to be associated with disease as well as significant mortality and disease progression risk factors identified through a proportional hazards model.

Results: The short-term Markov model outputs matched the 1–3?year clinical trial results approximately as well as the PSMs for OS but not PFS. The fixed (average) cohort PLS results corresponded as well as the PSMs for OS in the combination therapy arm and PFS in the monotherapy arm. Over the lifetime horizon, the PLS produced an additional 5.95 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with combination therapy relative to ipilimumab alone, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £6,474 per QALY, compared with £14,194 for the PSMs which gave an incremental benefit of between 2.2 and 2.4 QALYs. The Markov model was an outlier (～ £49,000 per QALY in the base case).

Conclusions: The 4- and 5-state versions of the PSM cohort model estimated in this study deviate from the standard 3-state approach to better capture I-O response patterns. Markov and PLS approaches, by modeling state transitions explicitly, could be more informative in understanding I-O immune response, the PLS particularly so by reflecting heterogeneity in treatment response. However, both require a number of assumptions to capture the immune response effectively. Better I-O representation with surrogate endpoints in future clinical trials could yield greater model validity across all models.     

Swedish Multinationals and Competition from High- and Low-Wage Locations

This study uses data on Swedish multinationals to estimate cross-elasticities of labor demand in different locations. With a vertical decomposition of the firm's activities, whether there is substitution or complementarity between employment in different parts of the firm will depend on whether wage changes lead to a relocation of activities or simply to changes in marginal costs and/or demand for inputs in other parts of the firms. It is found that there is some evidence of a substitutionary relationship between employment in the Swedish parts of the firms and employment in other high-income locations, but no evidence of substitution stemming from employment in low-income locations.     

DEVELOPMENT OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN JAPAN AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY

Abstract.  The rise of the service economy in industrialized countries is having considerable effects on employment and economic activities in Japan. This paper empirically examines the evolution of the service sector in Japan and assesses its impact on employment generation and economic growth. Owing to the heterogeneous nature of the service sector, it is important to further develop the more productive service industries, while making every effort to increase the productivity of the less productive service industries. Policy-makers must take appropriate measures to enhance the productivity of the service sector in order to strengthen overall economic growth.     

河北省"十一五"时期产业就业结构变动趋势分析

随着一个国家或地区经济的不断发展,产业结构不断地得到调整,同时也必然带来就业结构的调整.通过对历年河北省产业结构和就业结构变动趋势分析,建立了河北省三次产业就业人数的时间序列ARMA模型,对河北省"十一五"时期三次产业就业人数进行了预测,分析了河北省"十一五"时期三次产业就业结构特点,进而提出产业就业结构调整的对策.     

科技投入与产业经济增长——基于灰色综合关联的实证研究

基于2001-2008年广西科技投入和产业发展的统计数据,应用灰色综合关联模型对广西科技投入与产业经济增长的关联性进行了实证分析。分析结果表明：（1）科技投入对广西产业经济增长具有较强的推动作用,但不同的科技投入对产业经济增长的推动程度并不相同;（2）科技人员投入对总体经济增长和第一产业经济增长的影响明显大于科技资金投入的影响;（3）科技投入对第一产业增长的影响大于对总体经济增长的影响;（4）科技资金投入对第二和第三产业经济增长的影响均大于对第一产业经济增长的影响,而科技人员（包括科学家与工程师）投入对第一和第二产业经济增长的影响大于对第三产业经济增长的影响;（5）科技活动经费支出总额是影响第二产业经济增长的最核心科技投入要素;（6）来自金融贷款的科技活动经费支出和科技活动经费支出总额是影响第三产业经济增长的两个关键科技投入要素。     

中国生产性服务业的水平、结构及影响——基于投入—产出法的国际比较研究

本文采用投入—产出法并基于截面数据,对中国和13个OECD经济体的生产性服务业发展水平、部门结构及其影响进行了比较研究。结果发现:与OECD经济体相比,中国国民经济及其三次产业中的物质性投入消耗相对较大,而服务性投入(即生产性服务)消耗相对较小;大多数OECD经济体生产性服务的将近70%都投入到了服务业自身,而中国生产性服务的一半以上则投入到了第二产业;中国与OECD经济体的服务业及其分部门的影响力系数都较小,但后者的感应力系数高于中国,表明中国服务业的增长不仅不能对国民经济产生应有的带动作用,其本身受其他部门的需求拉动作用也不大。中国生产性服务业发展的差距不只是由经济发展阶段决定的,而是在很大程度上缘于社会诚信、体制机制和政策规制的约束。因此,打破市场垄断、理顺市场机制、规范市场运行秩序和政府行为以及打造诚信经济,应该成为政策制订的着力点。     

Policy variables affecting marginal level of low carbon employment：an empirical study based on provincial data of China

Low Carbon Employment is an inevitable choice for the purpose of ＂energy-saving and emission reduction＂ and ＂promoting employment＂. By Multi-variable Linear Backward Regression method, this study presents an empirical analysis of the emplovment impact of policy variables indexes that involves economic pull, industry upgrading, population development, technical inputs and so on. The paper demonstrates that wide range offactors will affect low carbon employment, that industry upgrading will affect how carbon employment remarkably, that to increase years of people education will notably improve low carbon employment level of secondary vocational-technical labor, and that to raise technical inputs will significantly enhance college students＇ low carbon employment.     

经济周期中就业波动研究新进展

本文通过梳理国外最新研究文献,我们发现:(1)经济周期中就业波动存在滞后与回滞现象。(2)经济周期中的就业波动形态在不同部门间存在巨大差异。(3)经济周期的不同冲击源对就业波动有着迥异的影响。     

THE EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE OF COOPERATIVE BANKS – A TEST OF INSTITUTIONAL HYPOTHESES

We study the claim that, because of their institutional design, current cooperative banks differ in their employment decisions compared to other conventional banks. The success of cooperative banks in the past was grounded on efficiency advantages generated through peer‐monitoring, social sanctions, and institutional trust. Institutional economic theory and anecdotal historical evidence suggest that these core institutional mechanisms also had an effect on the employment structure of early credit cooperatives. By examining the employment structure of current cooperative banks, we aim to provide insights to the question of how and to what extent original institutional mechanisms of credit cooperatives may still be functional. We use administrative establishment data from Germany and compare employment structures of banks by legal form. The results indicate that cooperative banks in comparison with otherwise similar private and savings banks are characterized by more stable employment, an older workforce, more extensive training activities, and a more homogeneous composition of employees.     

FDI对中国经济发展影响的实证分析与政策建议

FDI对中国经济发展的影响主要表现为:(1)外商投资企业劳动力的就业增量对于经济增长的负效应要小于其他类型企业的就业增量对经济增长的负效应;(2)FDI规模扩大对就业具有直接的创造效应,但对其他类型企业的就业具有一定的负面效应;(3)外商投资企业的出口与世界经济增长和我国的经济增长具有很强的相关性,但与FDI只有较弱的相关性;(4)FDI对于内资企业模仿和学习先进技术具有明显的溢出效应,但对内资企业自主创新能力的提高的溢出效应不大。     

THE SUBSTITUTION OF SELF-SERVICE ACTIVITIES FOR MARKETED SERVICES

This paper is divided into two parts. In the first part the consequences of permanent differences in the rates of productivity growth between economic activities are dealt with. Special attention is given to the substitution of self-service activities for marketed services. The former are tentatively defined as activities carried out outside the market having the following principal inputs: consumer's time, industrial products (mainly durables), and energy. The emergence of self-service activities challenges the conventional division of man's time into work for market and leisure, which should be replaced by a more detailed breakdown. Consumers’preference for self-service results mainly from high taxation, high real wages and equality in the distribution of personal income. Because of the growth of self-service activities in industrialized countries a non-negligible part of the population's productive effort will be difficult to record, since it will neither appear on the market nor have market value. The need to record self-service activities would be most strongly felt in statistics on private consumption, but would also have consequences in the measurement of the nation's welfare. One should make a distinction between consumption of marketed services and their self-service substitutes in order to provide information on the complementarity of the energy, time and material inputs into various self-service activities and on the substitutability between them and marketed services. This could perhaps be done with the help of extended commodity-private expenditure matrices. The recording as well as the valuation of non-market working time would probably cause great difficulties. Self-service activities are also becoming sufficiently important to warrant their inclusion in the debate on the measurement of the nation's productive effort and of the nation's welfare. But any recording of self-service activities would be a controversial measure since it would require recourse to imputations on a large scale.     

Labour mobility during transitionEvidence from Georgia1

This article deals with labour mobility in Georgia during economic transition. We use quarterly 1998–99 panel data to examine mobility across six labour market statuses (inactivity, unemployment, formal wage employment, informal wage employment, self‐employment and farming). Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of labour market segmentation. Formal employment is preferred to informal employment. Unemployment is largely a queuing device for individuals with higher education waiting for formal jobs. Some self‐employment is subsistence activities and consistent with a segmented labour market, while other is high risk and potentially high return activities. Age, gender and education are significant determinants of labour mobility. Finally, informal employment serves as a buffer in times of recession – with farming and informal wage employment absorbing labour shed by other statuses during the Russian financial crisis.     

COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY OF AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES AND CONVENTIONAL FIRMS IN A SAMPLE OF QUASI‐TWIN COMPANIES

The resilience of cooperatives and their positive contribution to employment in times of crisis is well established. However, their overall economic performance relative to conventional firms is still controversial, casting doubt on the ability of this alternative organizational form to govern the fundamental drivers of productivity. To shed new light on the issue, we study the comparative technical efficiency of agricultural cooperatives (ACs) and conventional firms (CFs), drawing on a unique data set comprising all wine‐producing companies in Sardinia (Italy) from 2004 to 2009. Due to the similarity of the habitats in which the firms operate and the careful measurement of several key inputs, the observed units are ‘twins’ in all non‐organizational respects, providing an ideal setting for comparison. Having generated efficiency scores through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), we regressed the scores on external covariates and ownership type using a pooled truncated maximum likelihood formulation. Our findings, which survive correction for spatial correlations, indicate that cooperatives are less technically efficient than their capitalist counterparts and struggle more to adapt to extreme weather fluctuations. Both results are particularly worrying in light of the main challenges facing the wine industry in the near future: liberalization of EU planting rights and climate change.