Olympic Dam Mining： Accounting For Capacity Management

This case concerns the evaluation of a capital investment and provides an opportunity to conduct a sensitivity analysis of outcomes based on alternative project assumptions. Optimum production outputs depend on a reliable fleet of minesite vehicles. Replacement and maintenance alternatives need to be assessed and managed to ensure effective outcomes.     

净现值计算方法的差异及其消除

现金流量可以分为资本成本、资本回收额与剩余收益三部分,因此当折现时不同的现金流量应与不同的相关折现率相匹配。Damodaran提出的匹配原则使得两种计算净现值的方法得出不同的结果,而通过对匹配原则进行修正则可以解决这一问题。     

The Accuracy of Price-Earnings and Discounted Cash Flow Methods of IPO Equity Valuation

This paper compares estimates of value derived from conventional discounted cash flow and price earnings valuation methods to the market price. For a sample of 45 firms newly listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange our results suggest that the best discounted cash flow method and the best price earnings comparable have similar accuracy. The median absolute pricing error is around 20% and the models explain around 70% of the cross-sectional variation in market price scaled by book value. The results serve to corroborate the findings of Kaplan and Ruback (1995).     

Firm valuation: comparing the residual income and discounted cash flow approaches

This study compares the discounted cash flow approach and an accrual based valuation approach: the residual income model. Given the theoretical equivalence between the residual income and discounted cash flow approaches this, study examines whether it is possible to infer a valuation approach that is superior to the other from a user perspective. The two valuation approaches are compared on the basis of analytical attractiveness. This study demonstrates that if practitioners introduce simplifying assumptions in their firm valuation, they also introduce biases in their firm value estimates. In some cases the residual income approach yields more accurate firm value estimates, while in others the discounted cash flow approach yields more accurate estimates. Further, the impact of simplifying assumptions on firm value estimates can be significant. Thus, it is important that practitioners introducing simplifying assumptions are aware of the impact on firm value estimates. Finally, since the framework for forecasting is often based on accrual accounting and the budget control is generally based on accounting numbers rather than cash flow numbers, it seems logical to estimate firm values based on concepts known from accrual accounting and financial statement analysis, i.e. the residual income approach.     

浅析多时期证券投资组合价值与其收益的关系

文章从定量分析的角度,推导了多时期证券投资组合价值与收益过程之间的数学关系,同时还推导了折现价值过程中投资组合价值与收益过程的数学关系。     

浅析混凝土裂缝的成因与预防

混凝土在水利工程建设中占有重要地位。而混凝土裂缝已成为水利工程中常见的工程病害,造成的影响和危害不可小视,混凝土裂缝的预防与控制应高度重视。     

基于价值网络的利润优化

根据价值网络理论,在分析网络构成的基础上,确定顾客价值、顾客风险、网络各节点的市场权力指数,计算市场权力限制下的最高可能定价以及最优的利润-销量组合。     

Numeraire portfolios and utility-based price systems under proportional transaction costs

In a discrete-time incomplete financial market with proportional transaction costs and with independent and bounded returns, we prove the existence of a consistent price system that can be written as the expectation of the discounted claim under the real-world probability measure P and not just under a martingale measure. In fact, the claim is then discounted by some specific dynamic portfolio called the numeraire portfolio as in the classical case of markets without transaction costs. For that specific numeraire, P will be a martingale measure. Naturally, the concept of a numeraire portfolio has here to be adapted to the concept of consistent price systems for markets with transaction costs. Moreover, again as in the classical case, the numeraire portfolio can be chosen as log-optimal portfolio. The same analysis works for power utility functions. However, then a change of measure is necessary. This paper applies methods from stochastic dynamic programming to finance.     

成长型企业的价值评估实证分析

本文在介绍了3种常用的企业价值评估方法(成本法、市场法、收益法)的基础上,应用现金流量折现法对北京无忧草展有限公司进行了成长型企业的价值评估实证分析,最终得出该公司的评估价值。     

Discounted semi-Markov decision processes: linear programming and policy iteration

For semi-Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal linear programming formulation of the problem.     

The turnpike of dynamic general equilibrium paths and its insensitivity to initial conditions

Asymptotic turnpike theorems in the case where the future is discounted are traditionally derived under the assumptions that a utility function is twice differentiable and that is Hessian is negative definite. Replacing these assumptions by a weaker one. I give a proof of the theorem simpler than existing ones.     

The primal route to the turnpike and asymptotic stability

Asymptotic turnpike theorems in the case where the future is discounted are traditionally derived under the assumptions that a utility function is twice differentiable and that is Hessian is negative definite. Replacing these assumptions by a weaker one. I give a proof of the theorem simpler than existing ones.     

Markets with heterogeneous beliefs: A necessary and sufficient condition for a trader to vanish

What does it take to survive in the market? Previous literature has proposed sufficient conditions for a trader to vanish, which depend on pairwise comparisons of traders’ discounted beliefs. We propose a novel condition that focuses on the ratio of traders’ discounted beliefs and (approximate) equilibrium prices. Unlike existing conditions, ours is both necessary and sufficient for a trader to vanish and delivers the exact rate at which vanishing traders lose their consumption shares. As an application, we analyze the performance of two intuitive behavioral strategies: the “Follow the Leader Strategy” that prescribes mimicking the beliefs of the most successful trader, and the “Follow the Market Strategy” that prescribes to use beliefs which coincide with the state price density. Further, we show that the relative performance of vanishing traders cannot be studied in isolation. Our analysis highlights an intuitive point obscured by the existing conditions: trading in financial markets is qualitatively different from bilateral trading.     

Investeren en onzekerheid

Summary Investment and uncertainty
After a few introductory remarks about the necessity of uniform definitions about plan horizon, returns, expenses, interest factor ett. for all investment alternatives and the necessity of an also uniform way of prediction, several models on investment analysis which are known from literature are briefly discussed. For simplicity there is only one decision variable (i.e. capacity); the variables influencing it are called exogeneous variables. These exogeneous variables may be deterministic and then one has to maximize the sum of the discounted cash flows from each project where different levels of investment into a project are supposed to exclude each other. The maximization may be subject to restrictions or not. If the exogeneous variables are stochastic one has to maximize the expected utility, mostly defined by the expected value and the variance of the discounted cash flows. The way to carry this out is simulation. Also portfolio analysis may be used, but there are some objections against this method, which are discussed.     

Ein neuer Zugang zum Konzept des Discounted Cashflow

A lot of papers have been published about the concept of discounted cash flow or DCF. In this paper we will summarize the recent development and review the main results. After showing the main weaknesses of the concept we will make a sketch of some promising ideas that can form the basis to overcome these weaknesses.     

超额雇员、权益代理成本与公司价值——来自国有上市公司的经验证据

文章以国有控股上市公司为样本,研究发现超额雇员公司的权益代理成本显著高于非超额雇员公司,同时市场对超额雇员公司价值进行了折价。这表明,当承担社会性负担时,国有控股公司同样面临原国有企业的预算软约束问题。     

对企业并购估价中威斯通模型的进一步研究

威斯通模型是企业并购估值贴现现金流模型中具有代表性的研究。首先对超常增长而后无增长的威斯通模型作了一点修正;接着建立了企业在超常增长期采取不同投资策略时的估价模型;最后分析了新建模型与原模型的差异,并通过数例对两模型进行了敏感性分析。     

Lipschitz continuous policy functions for strongly concave optimization problems

We prove that the policy function, obtained by optimizing a discounted infinite sum of stationary return functions, is Lipschitz continuous when the instantaneous function is strongly concave. Moreover, by using the notion of α-concavity, we provide an estimate of the Lipschitz constant which turns out to be a decreasing function of the discount factor.     

Dynamic Factor Demands and Technology Measurement under Arbitrary Expectations

We present a dynamic model of factor demands based on expected discounted costs minimization. While making only very mild assumptions on expectations and technology, we are able to establish a duality relationship between contemporary factor demands and the technology, and we provide formula for easily recovering marginal products, returns to scale, and technological change from estimated factor demands. Parametrization and implementation are illustrated in a detailed example.     

DCF模型在企业价值评估中的逻辑演进

DCF模型理论上适合企业价值评估的模型,其核心思想是企业内在价值是其剩余寿命中可以产生的现金流量贴现值。DCF模型从其思想的萌芽到普遍运用,经历了基础阶段、推广阶段和变形阶段。本文分别对这些阶段进行了综合分析。