最优货币区理论研究的发展

上世纪90年代以来,最优货币区研究进入了一个新阶段,在理论方面以理性预期对最优货币区理论进行了重新解释,提出了货币区的内生性,建立了一般均衡模型,此外,应用最新的计量经济技术针对欧洲等国家从多个方面进行了实证分析,大大丰富了最优货币区理论。     

东亚货币合作的进展、障碍及中国的对策

尽管目前东亚货币合作取得了一些进展,但仍然面临着经济、政治等方面多层次的障碍,因此目前尚无法建立类似于欧元区的东亚统一货币区。中国从自身利益出发应在东亚货币合作中发挥积极作用,首先,应加强与东亚各国汇率政策的协调;其次,通过推动次区域的货币合作;最后,建立东亚共同货币区。     

最优货币区理论和“大中国区”货币联盟

在21世纪国际货币体系呈现多元化趋势的同时,货币区域联盟和区域性的特点也日前明显,特别是在1999年1月欧元正式启动后,使货币联盟从理论转变为现实,从而更加强化了这种趋势。针对国际金融市场的跌宕起伏,风险增大,许多学提出了在东亚地区实行货币联盟,建立统一货币区的倡议和主张。为此,中国究竟是该积极推动东亚区域货币联盟,还是保持独立发展的现状、澳、台在内两岸四地的“大中国区”货币联盟？本将从“最优货币区”理论入手,对中国大陆的最优选择进行探讨。     

东亚建立货币联盟的成本与收益分析

本文回顾了最优货币区理论的历史发展,特别是从货币联盟的成本收益视角对相关的理论和经验研究进行评述。结合东亚地区的经济现实,判断东亚地区是否满足最优货币区理论要求的经济标准,并对东亚地区建立货币联盟的成本与收益进行分析。     

醉醺醺的蒙代尔

大约是在上世纪60年代初,一个几乎疯狂的念头在加拿大年轻学者蒙代尔的脑子里浮现:在一定区域内,取消货币主权而使用统一货币,可以降低交易的结算成本。蒙代尔还写了一篇题为《最优货币区理论》的论文。     

关于贸易强度与商业周期同步性间相互关系的文献综述

近些年来,许多学者在研究通货区理论时,特别关注贸易一体化程度与商业周期同步性间的关系。这是因为,建立货币同盟时,促进成员国间的贸易是其主要的收益,而丧失国内独立的货币政策这一成本常常使得建立货币同盟得不偿失,但是如果贸易一体化可以加强成员国间的商业周期同步性的话,那么失去独立货币政策的成本就可以变小很多。本文介绍了最近这一领域的主要研究结论,并在此基础上建立了一个统一的研究框架。     

“中元”货币区的构建前景探析——基于博弈论的视角

随着中国港澳台与大陆经济联系不断加强,一个开放、繁荣的中华经济圈正在初步形成,"中元"货币区的建立越来越受关注。本文从博弈论的角度,在分析加入"中元"区各参与方不同成本和收益的基础上,建立了不同的完全信息静态博弈模型,指出"中元"区的构建必须加强相关制度建设,从而达成货币统一的承诺。     

论建立东亚货币区及其主导货币的选择

欧元的顺利启动,东南亚金融危机的爆发都要求东亚加强区域货币合作,并最终建立东亚货币区。通过对最优货币区理论的分析以及与欧元区的比较,可以看到,东亚货 币区的最佳汇率制度应该是钉住以人民币和日元为主导的一篮子货币,其中人民币又应占据更重要的地位。     

东亚区域货币一体化的可行性及其前景研究

区域货币一体化是区域性经济组织为开展区域性金融合作与协调、促进地区经济发展的一种适应性选择。东亚地区货币合作是亚洲地区经济发展的内在要求。本文基于最 优货币区理论,对建立东亚货币一体化的可行性进行了分析,并且对其发展前景进行了展望。     

亚洲货币合作的有关文献述评

亚洲区域货币合作已取得了初步成效,其理论指导合作实践也发挥了重要作用。本文主要对亚洲 是否是最适度货币区、亚洲货币合作应走欧洲货币联盟还是次区域货币合作之路、是否需要建立 亚洲货币基金组织、区域内汇率制度如何安排等理论和实践方面的研究文献进行梳理和评析。     

微观视角下对亚元的探讨

以往大多学者对亚元的研究和探讨主要是从蒙代尔的最优货币区理论入手,通过对欧元产生机理和其带来的影响进行分析,然后对亚元存在的基础和可行性进行研究探讨,在研究方法上是站在一个宏观角度上进行例证的,这样很容易忽视亚元作为货币的微观性作用。本文从微观上对亚元进行探讨,假设亚洲货币合作区和亚元的存在,通过分析亚元的货币性职能即流通、支付、价值尺度和贮藏手段,使得我们能从微观层次上理解亚元的存在的可行性和必要性,从而为亚元的产生提供微观上的理论支持。     

东亚经济周期协动的研究

本文认为,东亚经济周期的波动较大,周期的同步性和协动性较低,并且低于欧盟的协动程度。而且从东亚的次区域进行考察,东亚并不存在明显的几个同步的经济周期的次区域,只是东盟之间存在经济周期的长期协整关系和短期的调整机制。因此,从最优货币区理论的经济周期一体化标准看,东亚组成货币联盟的成本较高。     

The Norwegian debate on the gold standard and monetary integration in the 1870s

Abstract

The origin of the gold standard and the desire for monetary integration shared the same root, the prevailing liberal worldview of Norwegian elites. The actual timing of the final move, however, was strongly influenced by fear of foreign exchange volatility in the wake of the German monetary unification rather than the fear of inflation highlighted in earlier studies. The diminished prospect for a single “world money” after the Franco-Prussian war made monetary integration a dividing issue. In 1873, the attempt by the government to safeguard some of the advantages of integration by joining the Scandinavian Currency Union (SCU) was defeated by the parliamentary majority. The opposition was based both on a more optimistic view of the prospect of even further monetary integration and on fears of political opposition to Scandinavianism and the government. However, eighteen months later, parliament conceded and Norway joined the SCU.     

论货币替代、美元化与货币错配

货币替代、美元化与货币错配是发展中国家在经济和金融全球化过程中所普遍面临的问题,三者都会对其宏观经济稳定造成巨大的不利影响。它们在现象上非常相似,相互之间的联系也非常密切,但是在本质上具有不同的内涵,在形成机制等方面也不同。     

论我国货币错配的性质

在全球货币尚未统一的现实条件下,货币错配是一种普遍现象。根据一国对外资产与对外债务的状况,可以把货币错配分为两种类型即债权型货币错配与债务型货币错配,本文首先探讨了这两种类型货币错配对一国经济与金融的影响;其次,根据我国经济发展的现状,指出我国存在较为严重的债权型货币错配;最后,提出了防范债权型货币错配的相关政策建议。     

China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach

In this paper we use the Kaminsky–Lizondo–Reinhart (KLR) [Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., Reinhart, C., 1998. Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 45, 1–48.] approach to conduct an ex-post study of the probabilities of China suffering a currency crisis during the period of January 1991 to December 2004. Two high-probability periods are identified: July 1992–July 1993 and August 1998–May 1999. The first period correctly predicts China's 1994 devaluation. The second period predicts currency devaluation in the aftermath of the Asian crisis, which did not occur. The results of the model indicate that the fundamentals were weak enough for China to experience contagion of the Asian crisis, and raise the question of the possible role of China's institutional arrangements in preventing the crisis. The paper further analyzes the economic fundamentals of China that drive the high probability of crises, and provides some suggestions for further reform.     

Monetary operations by Hong Kong's Currency Board

Currency Boards are typically seen as demonstrating the advantages of rule-bound monetary policies with automatic responses to exchange market imbalances. We study the monetary operations conducted by Hong Kong's Currency Board, using daily data between September 1998 and December 2001. Since this regime is one-sided in that there is a commitment to sell, but not to buy, US dollars at a given rate, we estimate logit equations for dollar purchases. We show that these have shifted over time and that while the variables are statistically highly significant, the predictive power is low.     

Lessons from historical monetary unions - is the European monetary union making the same mistakes?

This article examines three historical monetary unions: the Latin Monetary Union (LMU), the Scandinavian Monetary Union (SMU), and the Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union (AHMU) in an attempt to derive possible lessons for the European Monetary Union (EMU). The term ‘monetary union’ can be defined either narrowly or broadly depending on how closely it conforms to Mundell’s notion of ‘Optimal Currency Area’. After examining each of the historical monetary unions from this perspective, the article concludes that none of them ever truly conformed to Mundell’s concept, nor does the EMU. Nevertheless, the article argues that some lessons may be learned from these historical experiences. First, it is necessary that there exist robust institutions such as a common central bank and a unified fiscal policy in order to withstand external shocks. The three early unions could not withstand the shock of WWI. Another important lesson is that continuing national rivalries can undermine any monetary union.     

Is the European union a natural currency area, or is it held together by policy makers?

Is the European Union a Natural Currency Area, or Is It Held Together by Policymakers? — In 1999, EMU started with 11 members, but with considerable uncertainty about the depth of the convergence between them. The optimal currency area literature stresses the need for shocks which are symmetric and of similar size across countries. Our results show that symmetries in the core are only marginally stronger than those in the periphery; and that these symmetries have been increasingly maintained by policy interventions. Consequently, Europe may evolve into an optimal currency area; but the symmetries will be policy-induced rather than a market phenomenon. This suggests a fragility which could be reflected in the value of the new currency.