最优货币区理论综述兼述欧元、亚元问题

近年来,关于亚洲货币合作与亚元问题的讨论引起了我国官方高层和学术界的日益关注,各种文章时有见诸于报端.我们认为,只有在理论上把该研究推向深入,才可能得出正确的政策结论.为此,对最优货币区理论进行依次系统的回顾与评价,就显得十分必要.     

最优货币区理论与“亚元”区构想

一、传统的最优货币区理论 货币一体化这种国际货币合作的形式有时也被称作最优货币区。根据《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》的定义，最优货币区是这样一种区域，在此区域内，一般的支付手段或是一种单一的共同货币，或是几种货币，这几种货币之间具有无限可兑换性，其汇率在进行经常交易和资本交易时互相盯住，保持不变，但是区域内国家与区域以外的国家之间的汇率保持浮动。货币单一化则是在货币一体化的基础上形成单一储备，     

论建立东亚货币区及其主导货币的选择

欧元的顺利启动,东南亚金融危机的爆发都要求东亚加强区域货币合作,并最终建立东亚货币区。通过对最优货币区理论的分析以及与欧元区的比较,可以看到,东亚货 币区的最佳汇率制度应该是钉住以人民币和日元为主导的一篮子货币,其中人民币又应占据更重要的地位。     

东亚货币合作的理论基础与现实路径

随着经济全球化和区域一体化的发展,世界范围内的区域金融一体化以及货币合作不断深入.欧盟地区已经率先实现了欧元区货币统一从理论到实践的实质性转变,并且总体运作良好.而亚洲作为新兴的经济高速增长地区,也开始不断加强区域间的货币合作.在此当中,东亚国家和地区之间经济贸易联系日趋紧密,且从现实角度看,该地区也是亚洲最有可能实现货币一体化的区域经济体.东亚货币一体化问题还与我国的切身利益密切相关,中国在此进程中将发挥更大的主导作用.文章以最优货币理论为基础,对东亚货币合作问题进行探讨.     

东亚货币合作——基于最优货币区理论的分析

随着经济全球化和区域化的发展,世界范围内的区域金融合作也深入开展起来。欧元的成功实践为国际货币体系改革提供了宝贵的经验,也为东亚国家(地区)开展货币合作提供了良好的示范效应。本文先从东亚货币合作的必要性出发,然后对货币合作的理论基础——最优货币区理论进行探讨,接着按照最优货币区理论的标准和结论对东亚货币合作的经济基础进行分析,最后对东亚货币合作给出一些看法。     

人民币与港澳货币一体化的可行性分析

最优货币区理论为区域货币合作提供了经典的理论分析框架，本运用这一理论，尝试从要素流动性，经济开放度、宏观经济及财政状况趋同性几个指标对内地与港澳构建单一货币区的可行性进行实证分析，通过成本—收益比较，提出了促进区域货币合作的政策建议。     

建立东亚货币区的可行性分析

进入20世纪90年代后,东亚经济的高速发展使东亚地区在总体上更加紧密地联系在一起。东亚金融危机爆发后,东亚各国深刻认识到,在全球不稳定的金融环境下,进行区域货币合作是有必要的。欧元的启动也为东亚进行货币合作提供了一个现实中的成功范式,东亚各国希望能够通过本地区的货币合作一方面降低金融风险,另外一方面促进区域内经济合作和经济发展。本文将结合最优货币区理论,就目前东亚地区各国的一些经济指标进行分析,并试图说明东亚各国目前能够在多大程度上具备成立货币区的条件。     

东亚货币合作的模式探讨和路径选择

文章首先论述了东亚货币合作的理论基础，然后通过比较货币合作的美元化模式和欧元模式，指出东亚货币合作模式应该是具有亚洲特色的、以“10 3”的合作机制为基础的、区域合作和次区域合作相结合的、多重的、动态的、具有阶段性和层次性特征的渐进式模式；最后探讨了东亚货币合作模式的实现路径和阶段。     

货币区的动态最优决策:兼谈东亚货币合作问题

传统最优货币区理论在进行货币区的成本—收益分析时,强调一体化与对称性对加入货币区决策的影响。然而,一体化与区域对称性不仅内生于汇率制度选择,同时它们之间也相互影响。本文在宏观经济一体化的背景下探讨货币合作,指出货币区的动态最优决策取决于经济现实基础和动态约束条件,并针对东亚地区在一体化和区域对称性之间的关系进行了初步的分析,结果表明东亚地区部分满足促进汇率合作的动态约束条件。     

微观视角下对亚元的探讨

以往大多学者对亚元的研究和探讨主要是从蒙代尔的最优货币区理论入手,通过对欧元产生机理和其带来的影响进行分析,然后对亚元存在的基础和可行性进行研究探讨,在研究方法上是站在一个宏观角度上进行例证的,这样很容易忽视亚元作为货币的微观性作用。本文从微观上对亚元进行探讨,假设亚洲货币合作区和亚元的存在,通过分析亚元的货币性职能即流通、支付、价值尺度和贮藏手段,使得我们能从微观层次上理解亚元的存在的可行性和必要性,从而为亚元的产生提供微观上的理论支持。     

从国际货币体系的演变历史谈“碳货币”本位的全新国际货币体系构建设想

面对美国次贷危机引发的全球金融海啸所突显出的信用本位制下无约束的货币泛滥,碳货币既是当前低碳经济背景下具有国际意义的热点问题之一,更是事关未来国际货币体系发展的关键所在,本文则从全球碳交易体系的货币视角提出了"碳货币"本位的全新货币体系的构建设想。     

Tests of microeconomic foundations of Asian common currency areas

The formation of the euro bloc sparked renewed interest in other potential common currency areas. Swofford [Swofford, J. L. (2000). Microeconomic foundations of an optimal currency area. Review of Financial Economics, 9, 121–128] set forth some microeconomic foundations for a common currency area. In this paper, some results from tests of these microeconomic foundations for various hypothesized Asian common currency areas are presented. These results can be viewed as broadly favorable for the formation of some Asian common currency areas.     

关于中、韩货币兑换问题的几点思考

中韩经贸合作全面展开,民贸发展迅速。民间贸易大量使用现钞结算,而我国尚未开通人民币与韩币兑换业务。适时开办中韩货币兑换业务是经济、金融发展的需要。本文对中韩货币兑换的必要性及可行性进行了分析,并提出了相关建议。     

A suggested reformulation of the theory of optimal currency areas

In contrast to conventional analyses of monetary union between two particular countries or sets of countries, this paper treats the possible expansion of a given currency area as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one; zero if there is no expansion and one if all sources of imports and competition in trade are included in the union. The optimal order in which new members are admitted to the union then becomes a central aspect of the problem. Along with other advantages, this approach makes it easier to defend the argument that many nations are too small for form optimal currency areas. The demands upon the origin of the shocks, factor mobility, and political organization are smaller.     

论货币替代、美元化与货币错配

货币替代、美元化与货币错配是发展中国家在经济和金融全球化过程中所普遍面临的问题,三者都会对其宏观经济稳定造成巨大的不利影响。它们在现象上非常相似,相互之间的联系也非常密切,但是在本质上具有不同的内涵,在形成机制等方面也不同。     

China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach

In this paper we use the Kaminsky–Lizondo–Reinhart (KLR) [Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., Reinhart, C., 1998. Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 45, 1–48.] approach to conduct an ex-post study of the probabilities of China suffering a currency crisis during the period of January 1991 to December 2004. Two high-probability periods are identified: July 1992–July 1993 and August 1998–May 1999. The first period correctly predicts China's 1994 devaluation. The second period predicts currency devaluation in the aftermath of the Asian crisis, which did not occur. The results of the model indicate that the fundamentals were weak enough for China to experience contagion of the Asian crisis, and raise the question of the possible role of China's institutional arrangements in preventing the crisis. The paper further analyzes the economic fundamentals of China that drive the high probability of crises, and provides some suggestions for further reform.     

The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability

The Chinese authorities described the management of the renminbi after its 2005 unpegging from the US dollar as involving a basket of trading partner currencies. Outside analysts have detected few signs of such management. We find that, in the 2 years from mid-2006 to mid-2008, the renminbi strengthened gradually against trading partners’ currencies within a narrow band. In mid-2008, the financial crisis interrupted this experiment and the bilateral renminbi/dollar exchange rate stabilised at 6.8. The 2006-2008 experience suggests that a shared policy of gradual nominal effective appreciation renders East Asian currencies quite stable against one another. Such a shared policy would create favourable conditions for regional monetary cooperation.     

Optimal currency area theory and monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions

In this article, the author analyses the prospects for monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions and stresses the regional specificities that should be taken into account. He points to the necessity to combine economic, political economy and institutional approaches to assess scenarios for monetary integration. The author also argues that the application of optimum currency area theory to regions with specific characteristics (in many respects different from the EU) might produce positive feed‐back effects for the development of OCA theory itself, highlighting specific aspects and implications of the same theory and stimulating theoretical research.     

The theory of optimum currency areas,trade adjustment,and trade

This article seeks to provide a closer integration of the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. A currency area is treated as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to the percentge of trade in the enlarged area. The benefits of widening a currency area are then regarded, in terms of conventional trade theory, as equivalent to a reduction in transportation cost. The costs of widening a currency area are seen, instead, with reference to open economy macroeconomics, as a drop in the speed of adjustment of the terms of trade to their long-run equilibrium level. On this basis, it is shown that the marginal benefits of enlarging a currency area fall, the marginal costs rise, and an optimum size arises. But this size depends heavily on the optimal composition of the members.CEPR