中国城市住房价格动态特征及其影响因素

本文从理论和实证两个层面分析了1997-2007年中国35个大中城市的房价动态特征,并考察了城市因素对房价动态参数的影响。所得主要结论有:中国城市房价具有强序列相关和弱均值回归特征;住房使用成本、地区市场化指数、土地交易价格指数及其变化对序列相关系数有显著影响;真实收入及其变化、建造成本、地区市场化指数对均值回归系数有显著影响;各城市的房价动态参数拟合值几乎全部落入震荡收敛区内,东部城市房价的波动振幅普遍高于中西部城市;1999年后35个大中城市的平均房价波动振幅有逐渐增大的趋势,尤其是2007年的房价波动振幅出现了非正常增长,但波动频率变化幅度不大。     

货币供应量对股票价格的影响研究——一个基于VAR模型的实证分析

货币政策是影响股票价格的重要因素之一。本文采用向量自回归模型,通过Johanson协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学手段,研究了狭义货币供应量M1对我国股票价格的影响。研究结果表明,货币供应量对股票价格的影响不显著。     

股票价格对信贷冲击的动态影响

本文使用基于马尔科夫区制转移方法的协整模型(MS-ECM和MS-VECM),以长期信贷需求方程为基础,研究了我国信贷市场的稳定状态与非稳定状态。实证结果显示:在信贷市场的非稳定状态中,我国股票价格变化对信贷冲击形成了较为明显的动态影响。这种动态影响的出现除了与西方学者所关注的信贷配给效应有关以外,还与信贷资金流入股市有着密切联系。另外,实体经济与信贷的动态互动可以显著增加信贷冲中击的持续性。基于以上结论,本文提出我国应该整合各种监管资源和政策工具,对股票价格变动引起持续性信贷冲击的现象进行动态预防和监控。     

The Impact of Renminbi Appreciation on Stock Prices in China

Since removal of the peg in July 2005, China has entered a new era of a managed floating exchange rate system. Although many observers have raised concerns about the impact of such a policy change on China's trade surplus, less attention has been paid to its effects on financial markets. This paper investigates the impact of recent renminbi appreciation on stock prices in China since removal of the peg, using threshold cointegration and momentum threshold error-correction model (M-TECM). The results clearly illustrate that no short-run causal relation exists, and an asymmetric causal relationship running from the renminbi/U. S. dollar exchange rate to Chinese Shanghai A-share stock prices in the long run is based on M-TECM. Policy and the broader implications of the findings are discussed.     

Evidence on the Relationship between Housing and Consumption in the United States: A State‐Level Analysis

We estimate the dynamic effects of U.S. housing market shocks on state‐level spending and home prices from a dynamic common factor model, and identify housing demand and supply shocks using a sign‐restrictions approach. While state‐level spending and house prices gradually respond positively and persistently to aggregate housing demand shocks, there is significant variation across states in the magnitude of these responses. Cross‐state regressions of the estimated responses on an index of mortgage market development suggest that spending in states with greater opportunities for home equity borrowing is more sensitive to housing demand shocks than in states with fewer opportunities, which is consistent with the prominence of a “collateral” channel over a “wealth” channel in explaining the link between housing and the overall economy.     

我国证券市场与宏观经济波动关联性：基于小波变换和互谱分析的对比检验

本文利用小波变换和互谱分析方法,从时域和频域两个角度研究我国证券市场与宏观经济波动关联性。在小波变换下证券市场与宏观经济长短周期波动存在非一致性,短周期波动具有共变性和双向Granger因果关系,中周期波动出现一定程度的异动性、时滞性和单向Granger因果关系,而长周期波动具有完全异动性和双向Granger因果关系。相干谱和相位谱分析表明,二者长短周期波动相关性较高,中周期波动宏观经济先行,长周期波动二者具有反向共变性,这与小波变换的结论相一致。     

Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices: A New Database and Empirical Evidence for Central,Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Several countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe used a rich set of prudential instruments during the recent credit and housing boom and bust cycles. We construct a comprehensive database of these policy measures covering 16 countries at a quarterly frequency. We use this database to investigate whether the policy measures had an impact on housing price inflation. The measures that appeared to be effective were capital measures (minimum capital adequacy ratio, maximum ratio of lending to households to share capital) and nonstandard liquidity measures (marginal reserve requirements (MRRs) on foreign funding, MRRs linked to credit growth).     

我国宏观经济政策措施对国际收支平衡的影响分析

本文在分析我国国际收支状况、研究宏观经济与国际收支相互影响的关系中,运用国际收支差率、外汇储备率、外经比率等新定义的指标分析国际收支平衡等问题,进而探讨并提出了世界金融危机时期我国应实施低水平的国际收支平衡和内外均衡等观点和政策建议。     

The Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices: A Comparison of Repeat-Sales,Hedonic-Regression,and Hybrid Approaches

This article examines a number of hypotheses that underpin the repeat-sales and hedonic approaches to the construction of housing price indices, as well as the practical problems associated with the implementation of either approach. We also examine a hybrid procedure that combines elements of both the repeat-sales and hedonic-regression techniques. For our sample of individual home sales in Oakland and Fremont California over an 18-year period, repeat-sales methods are subject to sample selection bias; the maintained assumption of time constancy of implicit prices of housing attributes is violated; the repeat-sales estimator is extremely sensitive to influential observations; and the usual method used to correct for heteroskedasticity in repeat-sale housing returns is inappropriate in our sample. Hedonic techniques are better suited to contend with index number problems per se, as they can accommodate changing attribute prices over time. They also appear to give rise to more reliable estimates of price indices, as unusual observations have less effect on estimated price indices. Drawbacks of the hedonic approach include the usual concern with omitted attributes, and their effect on the estimated price index.     

房价过快上涨对实体经济的影响:文献综述

自1998年启动住房分配货币化改革以来,我国房地产市场发生了革命性的变化,房地产业已成为国民经济的重要支柱。而历史经验则已反复证明,如果经济发展过分倚重房地产,听任房地产价格持续快速上涨,将对投资及全要素生产率、消费、收入分配、财富分布,以及财政收入产生不利影响,并有可能诱发系统性风险,进而影响国民经济持续稳定健康发展。因此,要从供给侧加大改革力度,加大土地供给数量,调整财税体制,加快推进房地产税立法工作,加快形成促进房地产市场稳定发展的长效机制。