ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE URBAN–RURAL DISPARITY IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA

With China's economic development and capital accumulation in the industrial sectors, the human capital level of the labours moving from the rural areas could no longer meet the demand of the industrial sectors. Therefore, “structural shortage of technical labour” emerged in the labour market as a result of excess of demand for high‐skilled workers. Previous literature mostly focused on the relationship between rural human‐capital level and labour movement, income change and economic growth, but in this article, the authors focus on the study of the relative disparity of urban and rural human capital and labour movement, as well as the effect of the change of urban–rural human capital gap on industrial output, profit and social welfare. This article shows that bridging the urban–rural gap in respect of human capital level could not only improve the situation of the “structural shortage of technical labour,” but also have a positive effect on the general social welfare.     

CAPITAL MOBILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: A PANEL DATA APPROACH

In this paper we are primarily concerned with assessing the degree of capital mobility in sub‐Saharan Africa. Using the methodology as proposed by Feldstein and Horioka (1980)—later termed the “Feldstein‐Horioka puzzle”—we test the hypothesis of perfect capital mobility against the alternative of imperfect capital mobility. Following Vamvakidis and Wacziarg (1998) and Isaksson (2000), provision is made in our model to show the dependency of the lesserdeveloped countries on international finance and aid and how a more open economy contributes towards improving the level of capital movement in these countries. We also assess the change in the degree of capital mobility over the time period in an effort to see whether institutional and political changes have been successful. We show that, compared to the region, South Africa is, to a large extent, more developed and should therefore play a leading role in the “African Renaissance”. Stationary panel data estimation techniques are applied to a sample of 36 sub‐Saharan African countries over the time period 1980–2000. The benefits of using one‐way error component models are derived from simultaneously employing time and cross‐section dimensions of the data, resulting in a substantial increase in the degrees of freedom. The fixed and random effects models enable us to acknowledge country heterogeneity within the panel, making provision for differences across countries like capital control policies, financial and capital market structures and exchange rate regimes.     

Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model*

This paper solves a model that links earnings quality to the equity risk premium in an infinite‐horizon consumption capital asset pricing model (CAPM) economy. In the model, risk‐averse traders hold diversified portfolios consisting of risk‐free bonds and shares of many risky firms. When constructing their portfolios, traders rely on noisy reported earnings and dividend payments for information about the risky firms. The main new element of the model is an explicit representation of earnings quality that includes hidden accrual errors that reverse in subsequent periods. The model demonstrates that earnings quality magnifies fundamental risk. Absent fundamental risk, poor earnings quality cannot affect the equity risk premium. Moreover, only the systematic (undiversified) component of earnings‐quality risk contributes to the equity risk premium. In contrast, all components of earnings‐quality risk affect earnings capitalization factors. The model ties together consumption CAPM and accounting‐based valuation research into one price formula linking earnings quality to the equity risk premium and earnings capitalization factors.     

Farmers at the heart of the ‘human capital revolution’? Decomposing the numeracy increase in early modern Europe†

Did the early development of skills and numerical abilities occur primarily in urban centres and among the elite groups of society? This study assesses the human capital of different occupational groups in the early modern period and partially confirms this finding: skilled and professional groups had higher levels of numeracy and literacy than persons in unskilled occupations. However, there was another large group that developed substantial human capital and represented around one‐third of the total population: farmers. By analysing numeracy and literacy evidence from six countries in Europe and Latin America, we argue that farmers contributed significantly to the formation of human capital and, consequently, to modern economic growth.     

“部门化”城市管理体制下“所有者缺位”问题及其治理

为了解部门化城市管理制度下的“所有者缺位”问题，文章把城市管理权力作为一种资本，将参与城市管理的主体作为资本行为者，引入城市管理效用的边际替代率分析，探寻部门化管理机制何以导致城市管理所有者缺位。研究表明，由于部门的简单细化，出现部门管理资源禀赋差异，进而导致城市管理行为出现分化，如职能部门间不均衡，参与主体间失衡等，从而产生城市管理的“所有者缺位”问题。而应对此问题，需在法理层面、制度层面、意识层面和操作层面上做出相关对策探讨。     

EMPLOYMENT,CAPITAL, AND PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN URUGUAY

Using a sample of Uruguayan manufacturing establishments we analyze employment, capital, and productivity dynamics over a period of currency appreciation; changes in trade policy; and changes in the institutional setting of wage negotiations. As the relative capital–labor price ratio fell, capital intensity increased. At the same time, there was an increase in labor and total factor productivity. Creation and destruction rates were relatively high and pervasive over time, sectors, establishment size, and establishment age, with exits explaining a sizeable part of destruction rates. Most of the excess reallocation was due to movements “within” rather than “between” sectors. Thus, high reallocation rates were linked to establishment‐level heterogeneity rather than aggregate shocks.     

Prostitutes,Pimps, and Brothels: Intermediaries,Information, and Market Structure in Prostitution Markets

Prostitution is a multi‐billion dollar, globally distributed, low‐concentration service industry that is receiving increasing attention in the economics literature. This article focuses on a widespread, but little studied, feature of this environment—the role of intermediaries (pimps or brothel owners) on market outcomes. Prostitution laws and markets are perhaps unique in that transactions between principals (prostitutes and johns) are legal in many countries, while intermediary activity (pimping) is illegal. After surveying the varying cross‐country legality of agents we develop a simple theoretical model to analyze how the presence or absence of intermediaries shifts the distribution of market surplus. We show that eliminating pimps and brothels may shift surplus in non‐obvious ways, depending on the precise function they perform and on whether equilibrium is pooling or separating across “high quality” and “low quality” market segments. The implications of alternative policy regimes (intermediaries legal or illegal) are considered.     

Tomato Farmers and Modernising Value Chains in Indonesia

The tomato value chain in Indonesia has transformed in the last two decades. We assess this transformation here, focusing on small tomato farmers in West Java and the determinants of their market-channel choices (as well as the technology correlates of those choices). These farmers sell to traditional village traders, urban and modern wholesalers, and supermarkets, and they have all invested heavily in irrigation and rely on external inputs. We find differences among farmers selling to different market channels. To wit, non-land assets—especially irrigation—are important to farmers participating in the supermarket, or modern, channel, but farm size affects modern-channel participation only in high-level commercial zones (zones dense in infrastructure and near highways). We also find that modern-channel farmers earn more profit than farmers in other channels but do not necessarily use chemicals more intensively. Yet hardly any farmers sell graded tomatoes; the main ‘capture of rents’ goes to specialised and modernising wholesalers.     

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND DEMAND FOR SKILLS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA'S CASE

There are few studies that directly address the upskilling issues in developing countries. Since theoretical analyses of these issues usually yield different results, upskilling in developing counties, and the factors of upskilling, if any, are rather empirical questions. This study shows that upskilling that occurs in developed countries in terms of the ratio of the number of white‐collar workers to that of blue‐collar workers also occurred in the Republic of Korea, one of developing countries. Increasing demand for highly‐skilled workers reflected in their employment and wage shares can be largely explained by “within industry’ shifts, not by “between industry” shifts, especially in the manufacturing industry. To further investigate the causes of these shifts, changes in white‐collar shares are regressed on the capital‐output and R&D‐sales ratio. Estimated coefficients are all positive, suggesting capital‐skill complementarities and skill‐biased technological change.     

Intergenerational income persistence and transmission mechanism: Evidence from urban China

In this paper I investigate the intergenerational income association and its transmission channels amid China's economic transition period using urban data from the Chinese Household Income Projects in 1995 and 2002. The estimated intergenerational income elasticity is 0.43 and 0.51 for cohorts educated prior to and after the market reform respectively, and reaches 0.71 among households with above average income in the post-reform era. Besides the conventional channel of education, this paper estimates the contribution from social capital and ownership of work unit across cohorts and income groups. There is weak evidence that prior to market reform, ownership of work unit contributes most to the intergenerational income persistence for households with below average income, while social capital leads the three contributors in households with above average income. However, in the post-reform era, parents with below average income invest statistically significantly in children's education which contributes most to the intergenerational income persistence. The leading contributor in families with above average income shifts to social capital. Possible explanations for such a shift lie in the ability and incentive of parents from different income categories to invest in their children. The results are tested through a series of robustness checks, and provide empirical support for promoting policies on the equality of opportunity.     

Expropriation with hukou change and labour market outcomes in China

We study the labour market outcomes of Chinese household members changing their registration status (hukou) from rural to urban as a result of land expropriation using panel data from the 2008–2010 Rural Urban Migration in China (RUMiC). While it is largely unclear the extent to which expropriation can be viewed as an event exogenous to individual and household choices, we deal with the potential selection bias of being expropriated by using the methodology proposed by Oster (2019). Gaining an urban hukou is found to improve the labour market outcomes of expropriated household heads and spouses relative to comparable rural stayers and rural-urban migrants. In particular, hukou-changers gain better access to permanent jobs in the public sector through formal search channels. We also find that expropriated parents invest substantially more in children's human capital as compared to rural parents, suggesting that leveling the hukou status among children can contribute to reducing intergenerational inequality.     

Local ＂Land Finance＂ in China＇s Urban Expansion： Challenges and Solutions

This paper considers the issue of local ＂land finance＇＂ in the context of China ＂s fast urban expansion. In an analysis of China ＂s land requisition and public leasing system we argue that low-cost land acquisition is the fundamental cause of land-related distortions that have occurred during China ＂s urbanization. Granting farmers the power to negotiate directly with land users during urban expansion, combined with coordinated land tax reforms to consolidate local tax bases is the key to China achieving both equity and land use efficiency in urban expansion.     

Option Trading,Price Discovery,and Earnings News Dissemination*

Abstract. Option market activity increases by more than 10 percent in the four days before quarterly earnings announcements. We show that the direction of this preannouncement trading foreshadows subsequent earnings news. Specifically, we find option traders initiate a greater proportion of long (short) positions immediately before “good” (“bad”) earnings news. Midquote returns to active-side option trades are positive during nonannouncement periods and are significantly higher immediately prior to earnings announcements. Bid-ask spreads for options widen during the announcement period, but traders do not gravitate toward high delta contracts. Collectively, the evidence shows option traders participate generally in price discovery (the incorporation of private information in price), and more specifically in the dissemination of earnings news.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Provide Desirable Development Finance？ The Case of China

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is often considered as a cost-effective and risk-reducing source for development finance. This paper,however,shows that FDI finance often entails underestimated risks and costs. FDI might react sensitively to business cycles and might not be as "permanent" as conventionally believed. FDI might also accelerate other forms of capital flow in times of financial difficulties and,hence,destabilize financial order. In addition to the risks,compensations to FDI and the high import-dependency of FDI-related trade lead to a considerable drain on the balance of payments. Moreover,the reliance on foreign capital for development finance is equivalent to building a Ponzi financing scheme and,therefore,is unsustainable. Given the fact that FDI financing is risky and costly and China does not lack savings,it is suggested in the present paper that China's efforts in attracting FDI should not aim at external capital provisioning.     

DEALING WITH EARNINGS BRACKET RESPONSES IN HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS – HOW SHARP ARE MIDPOINT IMPUTATIONS?

Earnings functions form the basis of numerous labour market analyses. Non‐response (particularly among higher earners) may, however, lead to the exclusion of a significant proportion of South Africa's earnings base. Earnings brackets built into surveys intend to maintain response rates. Econometric tools to incorporate brackets vary from “simplistic” imputation to interval regressions. Coefficient differences are investigated here to establish reliable remedies. Monte‐Carlo simulations suggest that “simple” methods fail only under extreme skewness and when a substantial number of right‐censored observations appear in the sample. Testing procedures applied to LFS data reveal that in practice coefficients are virtually invariant to the proposed methods.     

The Entrepreneur: Real and Imagined

Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and Murray Rothbard were the main architects of the distinctly Austrian theory of production as it exists today. All three conceived the entrepreneurial function in the actual market economy as presupposing the ownership of property, specifically capital. Yet, many, if not most, contemporary Austrian economists conceive the entrepreneur as a pure decision-maker possessing superior “alertness” but owning no resources. This pure entrepreneur earns profits by “discovering” and seizing objectively existing but previously unperceived opportunities to arbitrage price discrepancies between a bundle of complementary inputs and the output it yields. That this is the essence of “the” Austrian theory of the entrepreneur and profit is accepted as a matter of course by those among the broader economics profession who are sympathetic to the Austrian approach. It is the goal of this paper to demonstrate that there is in the Austrian tradition traceable back to Carl Menger, a very definite and prominent strand of thought that conceives property ownership as central to the tasks that the entrepreneur characteristically performs in the real-world market economy. The managerial function . . . can never evolve into a substitute for entrepreneurship. The fallacy to the contrary is due to the error confusing the category of entrepreneurship as it is defined in the imaginary construction of functional distribution with conditions in a living and operating market economy. The function of the entrepreneur cannot be separated from the direction of the employment of factors of production for the accomplishment of definite tasks. The entrepreneur controls the factors of production; it is this control that brings him either entrepreneurial profit or loss. (Mises 1998, p. 302) Mr. Keynes obviously arrives at this view by an artificial separation of the function of the entrepreneurs as owners of capital and their function as entrepreneurs in the narrow sense. But these two functions cannot be absolutely separated even in theory, because the essential function of the entrepreneurs, that of assuming risks, necessarily implies the ownership of capital. Moreover, any new chance to make entrepreneurs’ profits is identical with a change in the opportunities to invest capital, and will always be reflected in the earnings (and value) of capital invested. (Hayek 1931, p. 277; emphasis in original) It is clear, therefore, that the process of equalization of rate of return throughout the economy, one that results in a uniform rate of interest, is the very same process that brings about the abolition of profits and losses in the ERE. . . . [I]f the . . . entrepreneur owns no assets, then how in the world does he earn profits? Profits, after all, are simply the other side of the coin of an increase in the value of one’s capital; losses are the reflection of a loss in capital assets. (Rothbard 2004, pp. 513–14; 1997, 2:247; emphasis in original)      

Market In efficiency in Person‐to‐Person Betting: Examining ‘Known Loser’ Insider Trading on the Exchanges

Applying the Shin z measure of market efficiency to the relatively new person‐to‐person internet betting exchanges, Smith, Paton, and Vaughan Williams found “significantly lower market biases” compared to bookmaker‐dominated markets. A reduced favorite‐longshot bias is interpreted as evidence that insider trading on the exchanges “is not widespread” and “not as commonplace … as is sometimes portrayed in the media.” Given that the Shin measure assumes “betting with bookies,” whereas the exchanges represent “betting without bookies,” the present study employs the notion of ‘significant mover’ to empirically test for the presence of ‘known loser’ insider trading on the exchanges where traditional notions of bookmaking do not apply. Findings indicate that, far from being less problematized by insider trading compared to racetrack betting, activity aimed at profiting from “known losers” may be potentially commonplace on the exchanges. This includes profiting from horses that are unplaced. This study offers new insight into the efficiency of betting markets.     

The Relation between Market Values,Earnings Forecasts,and Reported Earnings*

Recently, much of the research into the relation between market values and accounting numbers has used, or at least made reference to, the residual income model (RIM). Two basic types of empirical research have developed. The “historical” type explores the relation between market values and reported accounting numbers, often using the linear dynamics in Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and 1996. The “forecast” type explores the relation between market value and the present value of the book value of equity, a truncated sequence of residual income forecasts, and an estimate of the terminal value at the truncation date. The analysis in this paper integrates these two approaches. We expand the Feltham and Ohlson 1996 model by including one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income forecasts to infer “other” information regarding future revenues from past investments and future growth opportunities. This approach results in a model in which the difference between market value and book value of equity is a function of current residual income, one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income, current capital investment, and start‐of‐period operating assets. The existence of both persistence in revenues from current and prior investments and growth in future positive net present value investment opportunities leads us to hypothesize a negative coefficient on the one‐period‐ahead residual income forecast and a positive coefficient on the two‐period‐ahead residual income forecast. Our empirical results strongly support our hypotheses with respect to the forecast coefficients.     

泰州沿江城乡一体化的实践

泰州市沿江以高港区和靖江市为主。泰州沿江城乡一体化的发展特色：工业化带动城镇化,致富农民成效显著;集中居住区初具规模,农民积极性很高;政府扶持,设施农业发展特色鲜明。泰州沿江城乡一体化面临的问题：集中区布局超前意识缺乏,易引发潜在问题;农业现代化过程中,政府财政扶持压力过大;城市化水平有待进一步提高;空间开发不够有序高效。泰州沿江城乡一体化进一步发展的思考：统筹城乡协调发展必须跳出传统的＂就农业论农业、就农村论农村、就农民论农民＂的局限,反弹琵琶,跳出“三农”来解决“三农”,积极寻求统筹城乡协调发展的新路径。     

Information advantages,excessive risk-taking,and capital regulation for BigTechs in financial intermediation

This paper establishes theoretical models to study capital regulation of BigTech firms (BigTechs hereafter) providing financial intermediation services. In our models, BigTechs borrow debts to invest between socially efficient prudent assets and socially inefficient risky assets. Limited liabilities imply that with a higher capital adequacy ratio, BigTechs are more risk averse and favor the prudent asset more. Then we examine how better information of BigTechs will affect BigTechs' incentive for excessive risk-taking, welfare, and capital regulation. The major results produced by our models are as follows: (1) Better information of BigTechs does not eliminate and could in some circumstances exacerbate their excessive risk-taking behavior. (2) Better information of BigTechs does not necessarily improve welfare. BigTechs could employ better information to more precisely identify the socially inefficient risky asset to invest in, causing more severe resource misallocation. (3) Capital regulation is an effective tool to curb BigTechs' excessive risk-taking and to ensure that better information of BigTechs will improve welfare.