The Role of RBC,Hurricane Exposure,Bond Portfolio Duration,and Macroeconomic and Industry‐wide Factors in Property–Liability Insolvency Prediction

This research analyzes the performance of the risk‐based capital (RBC) ratio and other variables in predicting insolvencies in the property–liability insurance industry during the period 1994–2008. The results indicate that the accuracy of the RBC ratio in predicting insolvencies is inconsistent over time and that some previously tested financial ratios that are part of the FAST system do not always reliably predict insurer insolvency. In addition, the insolvency propensity is found to be significantly related to an insurer's hurricane prone area exposure, changes in interest rates, the industry‐wide combined ratio, and the industry‐wide Herfindahl index of premiums written.     

美国保险公司破产研究及对我国的启示

保险公司的破产会给保单持有人、股东以及保险保障基金等造成很大的损失。鉴于国内相关案例和数据的缺乏,本文主要参考美国的文献和数据,分析了1978年～2009年美国保险公司破产案例,研究发现虽然保险公司破产的触发事件主要是损失准备金不足、非充分定价、公司业务的快速增长、子公司破产和投资失败等,但导致保险公司破产的根本原因却...     

Interest Rate Risk and Equity Values of Life Insurance Companies: A GARCH–M Model

The importance of managerial decisions related to interest‐sensitive cash flows has received considerable attention in the insurance literature. Consistent with the interest‐sensitive nature of insurer assets and liabilities, empirical research has shown that insurer insolvency is significantly related to interest rate volatility. We investigate the interest rate sensitivity of monthly stock returns of life insurers based on a generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH–M) model. We examine three different portfolios (equally weighted, risk‐based, and size‐based) with binary variables to explicitly account for varying interest rate strategies adopted by the Federal Reserve System. Results based on data for the period 1975 through 2000 indicate that life insurer equity values are sensitive to long‐term interest rates and that interest sensitivity varies across subperiods and across risk‐based and size‐based portfolios. The results complement insolvency research that links insurer financial performance to changes in interest rates.     

The Effectiveness of Public and Private Sector Summary Risk Measures in Predicting Insurer Insolvencies

This article investigates the abilities of four key summary risk measures to predict property-liability insurer insolvencies. The four summary risk measures studied are the NAIC's risk-based capital ratios, the NAIC's financial analysis solvency tools (FAST) scores, A.M. Best's Capital Adequacy Relativity ratios, and A.M. Best's ratings. The empirical tests find that the risk measures produced by the private sector are superior in predictive ability to the measures produced by regulators, perhaps because of the qualitative adjustments made by private sector analysts. The results also demonstrate that overall measures of risk are substantially better than risk-based capital measures in predicting insolvencies. Another finding is that the predictive ability of the NAIC's RBC ratios can be improved substantially if ranks are used rather than the ratios themselves.     

Conflicts of interest,intra‐group financing and procedural coordination of group insolvencies

Modern insolvency law instruments recognise the specificity of enterprise group insolvencies, premised on the existence of close operational and financial links between group members. It is widely accepted that maximisation of insolvency estate value and procedural efficiency depend on coordination of insolvency proceedings opened with respect to group entities. Such coordination is prescribed in the European Insolvency Regulation (recast), the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Model Law on Enterprise Group Insolvency and the recently reformed German insolvency law. Yet in insolvency, group members retain their own insolvency estates and pools of creditors. This is based on the traditional company law principle of entity shielding. Active communication and cooperation between insolvency practitioners and courts do not sit well with the separate (atomistic) nature of insolvency proceedings, as well as different and oftentimes conflicting interests of creditors in such proceedings. As a result, communication and cooperation may be restricted in a situation of conflicts of interest. This article explores how in the context of group distress the risks arising from conflicts of interest can be controlled and mitigated, while ensuring efficient cross‐border cooperation and communication to the maximum extent possible. It analyses three cutting‐edge coordination mechanisms, namely (a) cross‐border insolvency agreements or protocols, (b) special (group coordination and planning) proceedings and (c) the appointment of a single insolvency practitioner. It concludes that both the likelihood and significance of conflicts of interest correlate with the degree of procedural coordination. Therefore, conflict mitigation tools and strategies need to be tailor‐made and targeted at a specific level and coordination mechanism.     

Corporate Risks and Property Insurance: Evidence From the People's Republic of China

Using panel data (1997–1999) for 235 publicly listed companies in the People's Republic of China, this study empirically tests the linkage between corporate risks and the decision to purchase property insurance and its financial extent. To achieve these objectives, we first estimate a probit insurance participation decision model and then a fixed‐effects insurance volume decision model with Heckman's sample selection correction. Our results indicate that the managerial decision to purchase property insurance is positively related to company size and insolvency risks. By contrast, the amount of property insurance purchased is positively related to systematic risks but negatively related to insolvency and unsystematic risks and company size. We find that the amount of property insurance used by Chinese companies can also be affected by other factors (e.g., the cash flow constraints). In addition, the decision to purchase property insurance and the financial extent to which it is used varies among Chinese companies according to their geographical location. However, state ownership does not appear to be an important determinant of the purchase of property insurance by Chinese publicly listed companies.     

Financial Intermediary Versus Production Approach to Efficiency of Marketing Distribution Systems and Organizational Structure of Insurance Companies

An examination of the efficiency of the marketing distribution channel and organizational structure for insurance companies is presented from a framework that views the insurer as a financial intermediary rather than as a “production entity” which produces “value added” through loss payments. Within this financial intermediary approach, solvency can be a primary concern for regulators of insurance companies, claims‐paying ability can be a primary concern for policyholders, and return on investment can be a primary concern for investors. These three variables (solvency, financial return, and claims‐paying ability) are considered as outputs of the insurance firm. The financial intermediary approach acknowledges that interests potentially conflict, and the strategic decision makers for the firm must balance one concern versus another when managing the insurance company. Accordingly, we investigate the efficiency of insurance companies using data envelopment analysis (DEA) having as insurer output an appropriately selected (for the firm under investigation) combination of solvency, claims‐paying ability, and return on investment as outputs. These efficiency evaluations are further examined to study stock versus mutual form of organizational structure and agency versus direct marketing arrangements, which are examined separately and in combination. Comparisons with the “value‐added” or “production” approach to insurer efficiency are presented. A new DEA approach and interpretation is also presented.     

To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Managing Demographic Risk in Life Insurance Companies

Demographic risk, i.e., the risk that life tables change in a nondeterministic way, is a serious threat to the financial stability of an insurance company having underwritten life insurance and annuity business. The inverse influence of changes in mortality laws on the market value of life insurance and annuity liabilities creates natural hedging opportunities. Within a realistically calibrated shareholder value (SHV) maximization framework, we analyze the implications of demographic risk on the optimal risk management mix (equity capital, asset allocation, and product policy) for a limited liability insurance company operating in a market with insolvency‐averse insurance buyers. Our results show that the utilization of natural hedging is optimal only if equity is scarce. Otherwise, hedging can even destroy SHV. A sensitivity analysis shows that a misspecification of demographic risk has severe consequences for both the insurer and the insured. This result highlights the importance of further research in the field of demographic risk.     

The Role of Holding Company Financial Information in the Insurer-Rating Process: Evidence From the Property-Liability Industry

We examine data for the year ended December 31, 1997 for 80 publicly traded property‐liability insurers that have Best financial strength ratings of their consolidated insurance‐operating subsidiaries. These firms employ a holding company structure, in which a parent owns the stock of multiple insurance‐operating subsidiaries. The operating subsidiaries prepare a consolidated annual report using the Statutory Accounting Principles (SAP), and an analogous set of financial statements based on the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) is released by the parent. We find that the financial characteristics important in determining ratings at the individual firm level—capitalization, liquidity, profitability, and size—are also important at the group level. Further, financial ratios from holding company statements are incrementally useful in the ratings' process, after group‐level ratios have been taken into account. Robustness tests based on a subsample of holding companies with minimal investment outside of the property‐liability industry reinforce our conclusion that parent company statements influence consolidated group ratings. However, our data do not allow us to separate the relative contribution of the GAAP model and underlying transactions to the ratings decision.     

Some Observations on the New Group Coordination Procedure of the Reformed European Insolvency Regulation

The recast of the European Insolvency Regulation introduces a new coordination procedure for handling insolvencies of groups of companies. The procedure relies on a group coordinator to create a helpful group insolvency plan while the individual insolvency proceedings remain independent. Albeit being a step into the right direction, the procedure has significant shortcomings such as the weak position of the coordinator, a liberal opt‐in and opt‐out mechanism and the problem of forum shopping. In the end, the new procedure can be a valuable tool in limited cases and should be merely seen as an addendum to a variety of possibilities to handle group insolvencies. Copyright © 2015 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

An Exploratory Analysis of Insurer Groups

Grouping is a widespread and interesting phenomenon of the insurance industry, among both life‐health insurers and property‐liability insurers. Recognizing the potentially important implications of group membership for insurer behavior and characteristics, numerous academic researchers using insurance company data have included a dummy variable in their regression analysis to control for group membership. However, it has never been clear exactly what is being controlled for when such a variable is included. This article attempts to shed light on this question. Results indicate that group affiliated insurers tend to be larger than unaffiliated insurers, are more likely to be licensed in New York, are more likely to be stock firms than mutuals, and are likely to be less geographically concentrated.     

New Risk-Based Capital Standards in the European Union: A Proposal Based on Empirical Data

In response to criticism concerning the current solvency system, the European Commission is developing new rules for insurance companies operating in the member states of the European Union (EU). Under this so-called Solvency II concept, an insurer is allowed to verify its solvency by using an internal risk management model previously approved by the regulatory authority. In this article we develop such an internal risk management approach for property-liability insurers that is based on dynamic financial analysis (DFA). The proposed concept uses a simulation technique and models the central risk factors from the investment and underwriting areas of an insurance company. On the basis of the data provided by a German insurer, the ruin probabilities under different scenarios and varying planning horizons are calculated.     

Universalism and the recognition of group proceedings under the UNCITRAL Model Law in Montenegro

Among the most topical insolvency issues in 2017 was the Croatian “Lex Agrokor”—a controversial “tailor‐made” law providing a unique restructuring opportunity for the largest Croatian conglomerate, the parent company of which was otherwise facing bankruptcy. Soon after the “extraordinary administration procedure” began, the appointed administrator started filing motions for the recognition of the alleged group insolvency as foreign insolvency proceedings in a number of neighbouring and other European countries, most of which have adopted the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross‐Border Insolvency. It was an attempt to save the conglomerate's property from being seized in a disorderly fashion by various secured creditors, most noticeably, the largest Russian financial institution Sberbank, which contested these motions with varying success. This article, however, does not present an effort to comprehensively analyse the ongoing legal battle but rather adopts a broader approach to examining the Lex Agrokor to establish grounds for more general conclusions. More precisely, the purpose of this article is twofold. First, to offer strong arguments that, from the standpoint of typical insolvency legislation based on the Model Law, such as that of Montenegro, both the actual and future group proceedings initiated under the Lex Agrokor should fail to meet recognition requirements. Second, based on the preceding case study, to offer conclusions on how to further promote universal approach regarding group insolvencies by emphasizing exactly what the national laws regulating group insolvency should not feature so as to have the proceedings introduced therewith recognized in countries adopting the Model Law.     

CDS as insurance: Leaky lifeboats in stormy seas

What market features of financial risk transfer exacerbate counterparty risk? To analyze this, we formulate a model which elucidates important differences between financial risk transfer and traditional insurance, using the example of Credit Default Swaps (CDS). We allow for (heterogeneous) insurer insolvency, which captures the possibility that relatively risky counterparties may exist in the market. Further, we find that stable insurers become less stable as the price of the contract decreases. The analysis includes insured parties that have heterogeneous motivations for purchasing CDS. For example, some may own the underlying asset and purchase CDS for risk management, while others buy these contracts purely for trading purposes. We show that traders will choose to contract with less stable insurers, resulting in higher counterparty risk in this market relative to that of traditional insurance; however, a regulatory policy that removes traders can, perversely, cause stable counterparties to become less stable. We conclude with two extensions of the model that consider a Central Counterparty (CCP) arrangement and the consequences of asymmetric information over insurer type.     

Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solvency, Capital Allocation, and Fair Rate of Return in Insurance

In this article, we consider the links between solvency, capital allocation, and fair rate of return in insurance. A method to allocate capital in insurance to lines of business is developed based on an economic definition of solvency and the market value of the insurer balance sheet. Solvency, and its financial impact, is determined by the value of the insolvency exchange option. The allocation of capital is determined using a complete markets’ arbitrage‐free model and, as a result, has desirable properties, such as the allocated capital “adds up” and is consistent with the economic value of the balance sheet assets and liabilities. A single‐period discrete‐state model example is used to illustrate the results. The impact of adding lines of business is briefly considered.     

Private Equity,Buy‐outs and Insolvency Risk

Private equity restructuring using debt has been criticized for increasing financial distress and bankruptcy especially following the financial crisis. We build a unique dataset comprising the population of over 9 million firm‐year observations and 153,000 insolvencies during the period 1995–2010. We compare the insolvency hazard of the spectrum of buy‐out types within the corporate population over time and investigate the risk profile of the companies pre‐buy‐out. Controlling for size, age, sector and macro‐economic conditions, private‐equity backed buy‐outs are no more prone to insolvency than non‐buy‐outs or other types of management buy‐ins. Moreover, leverage is not the characteristic that distinguishes failed buy‐outs from those surviving.     

Die Versicherungsnachfrage von Unternehmen: Eine Empirische Untersuchung der Sachversicherungsnachfrage deutscher Unternehmen

This article presents the results of an empirical analysis regarding the corporate demand for insurance. As several studies before tested the theoretical arguments for the corporate motivation to purchase insurance, this article provides the fist empirical analysis focussing on the insurance demand of German corporations. The empirical evidence, found in the data of corporate clients of a German insurance company, supports the hypotheses regarding the relation between the demand for insurance and the size of the corporation, insolvency costs and real services of the insurer as well as the influence of the ownership structure of a stock corporation. Conflicting results were found regarding regulation.     

“Analysis of Incremental Returns of Canadian Mutual Funds”, J. F. Carrière; C. F. Hill,April 2001

Abstract

The determination and allocation of economic capital is important for pricing, risk management, and related insurer financial decision making. This paper considers the allocation of economic capital to lines of business in insurance. We show how to derive closed-form results for the complete markets, arbitrage-free allocation of the insurer default option value, or insolvency exchange option, to lines of business for an insurer balance sheet. We assume that individual lines of business and the surplus ratio are joint log-normal although the method we adopt allows other assumptions. The allocation of the default option value is required for fair pricing in the multiline insurer. We discuss and illustrate other methods of capital allocation, including Myers-Read, and give numerical examples for the capital allocation of the default option value based on explicit payoffs by line.     

A Comparison of Neural Network, Statistical Methods, and Variable Choice for Life Insurers' Financial Distress Prediction

This study examines the effect of the statistical/mathematical model selected and the variable set considered on the ability to identify financially troubled life insurers. Models considered are two artificial neural network methods (back‐propagation and learning vector quantization (LVQ)) and two more standard statistical methods (multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis). The variable sets considered are the insurance regulatory information system (IRIS) variables, the financial analysis solvency tracking (FAST) variables, and Texas early warning information system (EWIS) variables, and a data set consisting of twenty‐two variables selected by us in conjunction with the research staff at TDI and a review of the insolvency prediction literature. The results show that the back‐propagation (BP) and LVQ outperform the traditional statistical approaches for all four variable sets with a consistent superiority across the two different evaluation criteria (total misclassification cost and resubstitution risk criteria), and that the twenty‐two variables and the Texas EWIS variable sets are more efficient than the IRIS and the FAST variable sets for identification of financially troubled life insurers in most comparisons.