巨灾债券在巨灾风险管理中的应用

越来越多的保险公司、再保险公司及大型企业倾向于发行巨灾债券来转移、分散巨灾风险,巨灾债券的出现是巨灾风险证券化的结果,在各种保险连结票据及其衍生品中,巨灾债券的发行量和交易量最大。巨灾债券有多种分类方式,巨灾债券发行的市场结构通常由发行人、投资者和SPV组成,巨灾债券的发行过程可以分为六个阶段。运用巨灾债券转移、分散巨灾风险显然对我国保险公司、再保险公司及大型企业的风险管理具有明显的借鉴意义。     

政府效应、再保险与巨灾保险供给结构——基于巨灾债券、再保险最优结构的模型分析

南方雪灾、汶川地震等顿发的自然灾害暴露了我国巨灾风险分散制度的薄弱,传统风险分散方式的不足使资本市场、政府在巨灾风险管理中的地位提升本文克服了已有文献只定性讨论政府作用的缺陷,从需求角度构建了政府、再保险与巨灾风险债券的组合模型,结论表明:政府与再保险、巨灾风险债券都存在替代效应,这解释了当前各固政府在分散巨灾风险中参与程度不问的现象:政府的参与,还减小了巨灾债券与再保险组合的可行集,限制了直接保险人的选择.     

基于再保险基础的农业保险巨灾风险管理研究

在农业保险快速发展背景下,经营农业保险业务的保险公司承担的风险越来越大,如果发生农业巨灾风险,将对保险公司造成财务灾难甚至破产,保险公司必须采取措施应对农业保险巨灾风险。首先介绍了国际上常用的农业保险巨灾管理方式,进而结合我国具体国情分析了我国保险公司面对农业巨灾风险的最优选择,得出对于农业保险巨灾风险的管理需要建设以再保险为基础、政府参与的风险管理体系的结论,最后对建立以再保险为基础的农业保险巨灾风险管理体系提出了一系列对策建议。     

从日本的二级再保险模式看我国的巨灾保险体系构建

日本创造了由政府和民间保险公司分担的二级再保险模式。我国也是自然灾害多发的国家,然而我国在地震或其他巨灾发生后,保险并没有很好的充当风险分散者和损失补偿者的作用,主要是依靠财政救济和民间捐助等措施,所以我国的巨灾保险体系存在着很多的问题与困难。通过对日本二级再保险模式的分析,在结合我国实际的情况下,总结经验,并且针对政府、保险公司以及二者合作提出建议,更好更快的建立健全我国的具有中国特色的巨灾保险体系。     

地震损失风险转移措施初探

地震保险已成为地震灾害损失补偿和风险分散的重要途径。但传统的巨灾地震保险作为社会化的风险损失承担机制在具有优势的同时也具有其一定的弊端和限制。而作为传统保险补充的再保险,是地震损失风险转移的主要措施,已成为世界上分散巨灾风险的一项金融保险创新。在利用1996~2003年地震直接经济损失在1500万美元以上的数据精算后,我们初步分析出近几十年的全球地震损失分布和次数,并在此基础上利用CAPM的债券定价原理和二叉树模型,计算出地震灾害债券的收益率和价格。     

论巨灾风险的证券化

本文分析了巨灾债券的特点、发行机制和定价原理，并对我国保险公司在引入巨灾债券时所面临的问题进行了探讨。     

我国发展巨灾债券可行性及对策分析

巨灾债券是最常见的巨灾风险证券化的形式,本文对巨灾债券的发生机理进行了研究,同时探讨了我国开展巨灾债券的可行性,提出了适应我国巨灾债券的发展的对策。     

我国巨灾风险分散机制探究

近年来,台风、洪水和地震等巨灾风险事故的发生频率呈上升趋势,造成的损失也越来越严重,尽快构建一套科学的适合我国国情的巨灾风险分散机制已势在必行。通过借鉴国外巨灾风险的科学管理经验,针对我国当前巨灾风险分散机制的局限性,提出以政府为主导设立政策性巨灾保险公司以及建立保险公司与地质气象部门相联系的风险精算机制等适合我国国情的新型模式,为减少巨灾风险造成的巨大损失提供有效的解决途径。     

略论财务再保险在我国的具体运用

财务再保险起源于美国的非寿险市场,原先是非寿险公司希望得到再保险公司的财务援助,来降低因为自然灾害发生,赔款支付过多造成公司财务亏损。自上个世纪90年代以后,人寿保险公司发现财务再保险也能够解决有关风险与资本的问题,于是开始将财务再保险观念应用在人寿保险业务的经营中。和传统再保险一样,财务再保险也是为保险公司提供转移风险的工具,只是传统再保险的目的是分摊承保风险(Under writing risk)为主,而财务再保险则是着重分担财务风险(Financial risk)。所谓承保风险,是指保险公司承保风险事故可能产生亏损的风险；而财务风险,还包括信用风险、资产风险、利率风险、时间风险等。若财务再保险不具有转移承保风险的功能,则只能视为平衡资产负债表的一种手段。通过     

巨灾债券在我国的应用模式分析

我国是世界上发生重特大自然灾害最频繁的国家之一,自然灾害每年都给我国财政和保险业带来巨大的压力。本文着力于论述适合我国金融市场发展水平的巨灾风险商业融资模式——巨灾债券,并研究其在我国的应用模式,初步理清我国保险公司、金融中介机构、金融产品交易平台、投资者、政府之间的合作模式。     

浅谈国外保险风险证券化

保险风险证券化是国际资本市场在20世纪90年代兴起的一种金融创新,它能有效地把保险公司的风险分散到资本市场的投资者中。所以必须着重了解国际保险风险证券化的主要产品类型及国外发展的情况及经验,使我国能以谨慎的态度发展保险风险证券化,通过借鉴国际经验和教训,加强该课题的研究与实践,从而促进我国保险业和金融业的共同发展。     

Catastrophe futures and reinsurance contracts: An incomplete markets approach

We present a theoretical methodology for the pricing of catastrophe (CAT) derivatives with event‐dependent and non‐convex payoffs given the price of a CAT indexed futures contract. We do not assume a fully diversifiable CAT event risk, nor do we assume knowledge of the martingale probability measure beyond the futures price. We derive tight bounds on the contract value and present trading strategies exploiting the mispricing whenever the bounds are violated. We estimate the bounds of the reinsurance contract with data from hurricane landings in Florida. Our method is also applicable when there is no futures market but the price of a CAT‐indexed bond is available.     

基于资本市场的中国灾害风险管理

作为世界上灾害损失最严重的少数国家之一,如何在我国建立有效的灾害损失补偿制度为社会各界所关注。笔者以中国的灾害损失补偿作为研究对象,分析了保险和政府在转移灾害风险方面的局限性,认为中国资本市场存在转移灾害风险的现实基础,并从供给、需求和制度的角度,提出了巨灾风险证券化的发展策略。     

中国巨灾风险管理:再保险的角色

中国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的少数国家之一,如何对中国巨灾风险进行管理是本文研究的主要内容.文章从中国巨灾风险与其管理现状出发,借鉴美国全国洪水保险计划、美国加利福尼亚地震局、日本家庭地震保险体制和英国洪水保险体制的经验,结合中国再保险发展的现状和问题,提出了重视支持巨灾风险管理、建立多层风险分担机制、鼓励公众参与巨灾保险、大力培育再保险市场主体、加强和完善政府保险监管等政策建议.     

PRICING IN AN INCOMPLETE MARKET WITH AN AFFINE TERM STRUCTURE

We apply the principle of equivalent utility to calculate the indifference price of the writer of a contingent claim in an incomplete market. To recognize the long-term nature of many such claims, we allow the short rate to be random in such a way that the term structure is affine. We also consider a general diffusion process for the risky stock (index) in our market. In a complete market setting, the resulting indifference price is the same as the one obtained by no-arbitrage arguments. We also show how to compute indifference prices for two types of contingent claims in an incomplete market, in the case for which the utility function is exponential. The first is a catastrophe risk bond that pays a fixed amount at a given time if a catastrophe does not occur before that time. The second is equity-indexed term life insurance which pays a death benefit that is a function of the short rate and stock price at the random time of the death of the insured. Because we assume that the occurrence of the catastrophe or the death of the insured is independent of the financial market, the markets for the catastrophe risk bond and the equity-indexed life insurance are incomplete.     

View from practice: Stock market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes in Malaysia

Documented evidence on conventional bond markets shows negative market reaction to bond credit rating downgrade and no reaction to credit rating upgrade. Despite the fact that sukuk issuances make up more than 58.8% of the value of outstanding bonds in the country and Malaysia issues at least half of the world's sukuk and is widely recognized as a leader in the sukuk space, there is no documented evidence on the stock market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes. This study analyzed the wealth effect of sukuk credit rating changes in Malaysia using 16 sukuk upgrades and 20 sukuk downgrades for the period 2000–2014. The evidence shows negative market reaction to downgrades and positive significant reaction to sukuk rating upgrade. This symmetrical market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes implies the market was indifferent between bonds and sukuk from the credit rating perspective. This finding supports the notion that the credit rating agencies are Shariah‐neutral when rating these capital market instruments.     

Bank risk-taking and market discipline: Evidence from CoCo bonds in Korea

We investigate whether the risk profile of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds is well-priced by testing the sensitivity of bond spreads to bank asset volatility. While equity holders (bankers) have an incentive to make riskier investments to trigger the write-off, such risk-taking behavior can be contained if CoCo bond investors punish it by demanding higher returns. We have found that investors in the Korean financial market understand the risk profile of CoCo bonds and require higher returns for the additional bank risk, which suggests the presence of market discipline with regard to CoCo bonds.     

论我国金融配置效率的改进与企业债券市场的发展

本文利用金融学基础理论—市场完全性原理对我国金融体系资源配置低效率进行剖析,认为其根源在于市场的极度不完全,有限的金融工具对应日益扩大的风险空间,风险与收益严重不对称,金融风险不断积聚。因此应发展能够通过风险与收益的匹配进行资源有效配置的资本工具特别是企业债券,以降低我国经济运行中的潜在金融风险。针对我国区域经济不平衡的现实,可考虑通过建立区域债券交易中心来推动我国企业债券市场的发展。     

Does corruption increase emerging market bond spreads?

We study the relationship between corruption and borrowing costs for governments and firms in emerging markets. Combining data on bonds traded in the global market with survey data on corruption compiled by Transparency International, we show that countries that are perceived as more corrupt must pay a higher risk premium when issuing bonds. The global bond market ascribes a significant cost to corruption: an improvement in the corruption score from the level of Lithuania to that of the Czech Republic lowers the bond spread by about one-fifth. This is true even after controlling for macroeconomic effects that are correlated with corruption. We find little evidence that investors became more sensitive to corruption in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.