Bayesian inference in a sample selection model

This paper develops methods of Bayesian inference in a sample selection model. The main feature of this model is that the outcome variable is only partially observed. We first present a Gibbs sampling algorithm for a model in which the selection and outcome errors are normally distributed. The algorithm is then extended to analyze models that are characterized by nonnormality. Specifically, we use a Dirichlet process prior and model the distribution of the unobservables as a mixture of normal distributions with a random number of components. The posterior distribution in this model can simultaneously detect the presence of selection effects and departures from normality. Our methods are illustrated using some simulated data and an abstract from the RAND health insurance experiment.     

Endogenous Growth and Structural Change in a Dynamic Input-Output Model

This paper introduces a simple dynamic input-output model, in which some of the most important properties of recent endogenous growth theory are included: innovation, knowledge spillovers, constant returns to scale at the macro level, and full employment. The wish to keep the hybrid model as tractable as possible (despite the industry detail) caused some substantial simplifications: contrary to most endogenous growth models, the model lacks an explicit microeconomic foundation and disregards any opportunity for instantaneous substitution. After the constituent equations are presented, the long-run behavior of the model is studied by a number of computer simulations for a hypothetical economy. The paper concludes with some illustrations of the potential practical power of future interindustry endogenous growth models in integrating issues like technology, investment, trade and education.     

30年31位年度企业家

改革开放30年最大的成果,是中国企业家阶层整体性的浮现和成长。 接下来你会看到中国商业帝国大厦中最早的一批身影：有些人看到了改革开放初期的新机会：     

Modeling Growth Data Using Multidimensional Scaling Profile Analysis

This paper discusses how Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) can provide an exploratory technique for identifying major growth profiles, which may be indicative of growth associated with subgroups. It briefly overviews the conventional growth models and growth mixture models, examines the assumptions related to these models, and indicates some limitations associated with these models. It then proposes an exploratory growth profile analysis using the MDS model as a complement to more specification-oriented techniques. It describes the Profile Analysis via Multidimensional Scaling model (PAMS) and extends the model for longitudinal data. The MDS profile model can solve for the growth parameters such that each MDS dimension corresponds to a major growth profile. It is argued that the MDS model provides an exploratory tool for identifying growth trends and studying individual differences with respect to those growth trends. Since MDS has not traditionally been used for longitudinal studies, the MDS growth analysis can serve as the basis for studies of the kind discussed in the paper.     

Double serial correlation for multilevel growth curve models

Multilevel growth curve models for repeated measures data have become increasingly popular and stand as a flexible tool for investigating longitudinal change in students’ outcome variables. In addition, these models allow the estimation of school effects on students’ outcomes though making strong assumptions about the serial independence of level-1 residuals. This paper introduces a method which takes into account the serial correlation of level-1 residuals and also introduces such serial correlation at level-2 in a complex double serial correlation (DSC) multilevel growth curve model. The results of this study from both real and simulated data show a great improvement in school effects estimates compared to those that have previously been found using multilevel growth curve models without correcting for DSC for both the students’ status and growth criteria.     

Labour market recruiting with intermediaries

We consider a Rothschild–Stiglitz–Spence labour market model and employ a centralised mechanism to coordinate the efficient matching of workers to firms. This mechanism can be thought of as operated by a recruitment agency, an employment office or head hunter. In a centralised descending-bid, multi-item procurement auction, workers submit wage-bids for each job and are assigned stable jobs as equilibrium outcome. We compare this outcome to independent, sequential hiring by firms and conclude that, in general, a stable assignment can only be implemented if firms coordinate to some extent.      

服务业外商直接投资与经济增长关系的实证分析——以江苏省为视角

在述评相关领域已有成果的基础上,以江苏省1992年到2007年的数据为样本,运用时间序列分析和滞后变量模型对服务业外商直接投资和江苏省经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:江苏省GDP和SFDI均为非稳定的时间序列数据,但两者之间存在协整关系和正相关关系。     

Regional growth and interstate migration

The current study examines a simultaneous equation model of interstate migration using income growth, employment growth, unemployment growth, population growth, gross migration, and employment in manufacturing as endogenous variables. The results show that neither the growth of employment nor the growth of income in the destination location has been directly important determinants of migration flow. However, an indirect effect through the population variable can be discerned for these variables, and this has important policy implications. A key feature of this migration model is that it incorporates most of the determinant factors as rates of change over time. The study sheds light on the joint and indirect effects of migration and other endogenous variables and draws some important policy implications pertaining to growth.     

Poverty traps, the money growth rule, and the stage of financial development

This paper investigates how monetary policy influences the emergence of local indeterminacy, local bifurcations, and multiple steady states, depending upon the degree of the commitment parameter that defines financial market imperfection, using Diamond's overlapping generations model with credit market frictions. The analytical results will show that poverty traps happen as an inevitable outcome under a wider range of money growth rates, because financial markets are less developed. Put differently, we derive analytically the positive link between financial development and per capita income.     

扭亏公司盈余管理和公司治理关系的实证研究

本文选择了2000-2002年158家扭亏公司作为样本,建立了多元回归模型,实证了扭亏公司盈余管理和公司治理的关系。发现扭亏公司的盈余管理程度与第一大股东和高管人员的持股比例正相关,与独立董事和内部人董事在董事会成员中所占的比例正相关,与集团公司控股正相关。政策建议为:国有股减持,实行全流通;改变独立董事聘任方式;实行累积投票制度;将集团控股公司和资产规模小的扭亏公司作为监管重点。     

Money Information in Lonergan–von Neumann Systems

Important technological changes have posed serious difficulties in the practical use of von Neumann's model of economic growth, which explicitly ‘eliminated all monetary complications’. The present paper draws on Lonergan's development of some Schumpeterian ideas to extend the von Neumann model to incorporate technological change with money. It gives an analysis of the notion of credit money as ‘information on the move”. General comparisons with the data of economic history indicate that the model shows a new realism in representing important dynamic aspects of cyclic economic growth.     

Individual new energy consumption and economic growth in China

We document the one-way relationship between individual new energy consumption and economic growth in China through the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 2004 to 2017. Our results show that individual new energy consumption has a positive effect on economic growth. Moreover, the urbanization rate, import and export trade volume and foreign direct investment all affect the individual new energy consumption in the short run. The outcome of the causality test reveals a one-way Granger causal relationship from individual new energy consumption to economic growth, from the urbanization rate, and from the import and export trade volume to new energy consumption.     

浅析土地非农化过程中失地农民保障问题

土地非农化是经济发展客观规律的内在要求和表现形式,是人口增长、经济发展,以及工业化、城市化的必然产物。土地非农化过程中,很多农民失去了土地,而且由土地引发的失地农民的权益保障问题也凸显出来。本文主要分析了土地非农化对失地农民产生的影响,并探讨解决失地农民权益实现的政策性思考和建设。     

Managerial Incentives Based on Acquisition of Information

In a moral hazard setting, we model the fact that the agent may get private signals about the final outcome of his effort before the public realization of this outcome. Actions affect both the distribution of the outcome and the quality of the agent's private information. We compare simple contracts, based on output only, with revelation contracts, based on output and messages about signals. Revelation contracts give the agent some discretionary power during the course of the relationship; they are optimal if and only if lowering effort does not increase the quality of private information in the sense of Blackwell (1953). In the context of managerial compensation schemes, the revelation contracts we analyze can be viewed as allowing the agent to exercise an option on the final profits before the realization of these profits. The theory thus provides an alternative justification of the widespread use of stock options in managerial compensation schemes, as opposed to compensation schemes that rely only on salary, bonus, and (restricted) stock plans.     

A Spatial Analysis of Mental Healthcare in Texas

This paper discusses competing-destinations formulation of the gravity model for the flows of patients from their residential areas to health supplier regions. This approach explicitly acknowledges the interdependence of the patient between a set of alternative health supplier regions. This competing-destinations-based approach may be implemented as a probabilistic demand function or conditional logit model, with a Poisson outcome. A Texas-based case study of residential areas and State Mental Hospitals (SMHs) is presented. The results of the estimation do not lend support to the presence of scale effects in SMHs due to the size of population. This result, combined with the negative effect of average length of stay and with the positive effect of the provision of forensic services on patient flows, highlights the problem of caseload growth in SMHs.     

Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends

This paper provides economic underpinnings for some recent econometric models of unit roots and breaking trends. It shows that in an endogenous growth model, difference stationarity is present in every growing variable; and this phenomenon is generated by the propagation mechanism of the model. For an exogenous growth model, either difference stationarity or trend stationarity may be present, depending on the nature of external impulses. Regarding long-run growth rates, permanent changes in economic fundamentals lead to segmented trends in endogenous growth models, but only shifting trends in exogenous growth models.     

OLIGOPOLY GAMES AND THE COURNOT–BERTRAND MODEL: A SURVEY

Traditional oligopoly models hold that firms compete in the same strategic variable, output (Cournot) or price (Bertrand). Alternatively, a hybrid model allows some firms to compete in output and other firms to compete in price, also known as the Cournot–Bertrand model. When the choice of strategic variable is endogenous, the established dominant strategy is output competition. A growing body of work demonstrates, however, that the Cournot–Bertrand outcome can be a subgame‐perfect Nash equilibrium in the presence of market asymmetries. Observations of real‐world markets consistent with Cournot–Bertrand behavior bolster justification for the model and have stimulated an impressive and evolving literature on advances and applications. We lay out the roots of the Cournot–Bertrand model and explore a number of model developments. We categorize 12 primary models in the literature based on alternative assumptions. In particular, some authors consider when the timing of play as well as the choice of strategic variable are endogenous. Altogether, this research identifies when Cournot–Bertrand behavior can emerge in a dynamic setting and under alternative market conditions. We also review the Cournot–Bertrand model applications in the fields of international economics, industrial organization, labor, and public economics. We expect the literature to continue to expand in the future.     

Sectoral labour supply,choice restrictions and functional form

In this paper we discuss a general framework for analysing labour supply behaviour in the presence of complicated budget and quantity constraints, of which some are unobserved. The individual's labour supply decision is viewed as a choice from a set of discrete alternatives (jobs). These jobs are characterized by attributes such as hours of work, sector‐specific wages and other sector‐specific aspects of the jobs. The labour supply model for married women is estimated on Norwegian data. Wage elasticities and the outcome of a tax reform experiment show that overall labour supply is moderately elastic, but these modest overall responses shadow for much stronger inter‐sectoral changes. Our model is compared with a discrete choice model in which the utility is assumed to be a polynomial. We show that our estimated model has a more economically sensible interpretation and fits the data as well as the alternative approach. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE REAL WAGE GAP

Over the past year a gap has opened up between the growth of manufacturing productivity and that of real wages. This gap cannot persist indefinitely, but it can be closed in many different ways. The best that can happen is that wage settlements fall while output and productivity accelerate. The worst outcome would be continued stagnation of real output and no deceleration of wages, in which case the required productivity improvement would have to come about through renewed labour shedding. There are worrying signs that this has started to happen. An intermediate solution might involve a fall in the exchange rate, with some improvement in competitiveness boosting real output (so that UK producers get a larger share of buoyant consumer spending) and some rise in prices holding back real wages.
We continue to believe that the most likely outcome is a rise in output and a fall in the rate of wage settlements. In our June forecast this occurs despite a fall in the real exchange rate. In these circumstances we expect the growth of unit labour costs to fall back from its current high level so that the current 3 per cent inflation rate becomes a true "core" rate. But a moderate fall in the real exchange rate may prove hard to achieve, especially if the oil price continues to weaken. We therefore explore what would happen if the required depreciation happens more rapidly, so that interest rates have to remain high to prevent it getting out of control. In this case we would expect lower growth and higher inflation than we forecast in June.     

Orders and Organizations:

A BSTRACT . We explore the relevance to the theory of economic organization of the distinction introduced by Hayek between two kinds of social order: spontaneous orders and organizations. We argue that Hayek's ideas lead to an understanding of the business firm as a process, which comes very close to some of the core notions of the evolutionary theory of the firm, while they still view the firm as the outcome of a contract among asset owners. First of all, we put forth a simple conceptual schema in order to differentiate between contracts that lead to the formation of an organization and ordinary market contracts. We then explore the conditions for an understanding of the firm as a set of interconnected processes, rather than as an end state. Finally, we introduce the concept of purposeful direction as an important condition for the existence of the firm and we show the history-contingent character of the firm's growth.