Productivity, convergence and policy: a study of OECD countries and industries

This paper analyses trends in labour productivity and its underlying determinants in a panel of OECD countries from 1979 to 2002. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to estimate a Malmquist measure of multifactor productivity (MFP) change. We decompose the growth in labour productivity into (i) net technological change (ii) input biased technical change (IBTC) (iii) efficiency change and (iv) capital accumulation. We analyse the effect of each of these factors in the transition towards the equilibrium growth paths of both labour productivity and per capita GDP for the OECD countries, controlling for the effects of different policies and institutions. The results indicate that on average gaps in productivity or income levels are narrowing down although there is no evidence to suggest that the entire OECD area comprises a single convergence “club”. Using kernel estimation methods we find that that labour productivity and per capita GDP are settling toward a twin peak (bimodal) distribution. Panel unit root tests over an extended (1960–2001) period provide general support for the convergence hypothesis. Analysis of the contributions of productivity growth within industries and sectoral composition changes show that aggregate productivity change is predominantly driven by ‘net’ within sector effects with very little contribution emerging from sectoral shifts (the ‘in-between’ static or dynamic effects resulting from higher or above average productivity industries gaining employment shares or low productivity industries losing shares).     

Total Labour Requirements and Value Added Productivity of Labour in the Process of Economic Development

When the inverse of the value added productivity of labour is regressed on total labour requirements (which is equivalent to labour values), a significant relationship is obtained. This indicates that the value added productivity of labour can be explained by total labour requirements (labour values). The mean value of the regression coefficients is about 1.7. The regression coefficients have a tendency to increase during the process of rapid economic development and to decrease afterwards. Such movements are explained by value added linkages. This study is based on input–output analysis, where total labour requirements per monetary unit of output and the value added productivity of labour are calculated for each of 24 industries in Japan, Korea and USA, every 5 years between 1960 to 1985.     

Local Economic Structure and Growth

Abstract

This paper tests how the local economic structure—measured by local sector specialization, competition and diversity—affects growth of manufacturing sectors. Most of the empirical literature assumes that in the long run more productive regions will attract more workers and use employment growth as a measure of local productivity growth. However, this approach is based on strong assumptions, such as those of national labour markets and homogeneous labour. This paper shows that if we relax these assumptions, regional adjusted wage growth is a better measure of productivity growth than employment growth. This measure is used in order to study regional growth in Portuguese regions between 1985 and 1994. Evidence is found of MAR externalities in some sectors and no evidence of Jacobs or Porter externalities in most of the sectors. These results are at odds with the findings for employment-based regressions, which show that regional concentration and the region's size have a negative effect in most of the sectors. It is also shown that simply using regional wage growth would overstate the effect of regional concentration and competition on long-run growth.     

Incomplete information and the time series behaviour of consumption

Pischke ( 1995 ) uses both microeconomic and macroeconomic US data to test the idea that, within an otherwise standard PIH framework, ignorance by agents of aggregate labour income can account for the observed degree of excess smoothness and sensitivity in consumption. His tests involve only the second moments of aggregate consumption and labour income. In this paper our main aim is to identify and test the restrictions his model implies for aggregate consumption dynamics, using US quarterly data over the period 1959–1996, but our framework allows us also to test an earlier, related model of Goodfriend ( 1992 ). We find that both models can be formally rejected: ignorance of aggregate labour income cannot by itself account for aggregate consumption dynamics; some other relaxation of the assumptions of the standard PIH is required. We give an example of one possible such relaxation and present evidence indicating that Pischke's version of imperfect information may, within that framework, have a significant role to play. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Who is ‘most valuable’? Measuring the player's production of wins in the National Basketball Association

How does one measure the productivity of an individual participating in a team sport? The purpose of this inquiry is to answer this question via an econometric model that links the player's statistics in the National Basketball Association (NBA) to team wins. This model will then be employed in the measurement of each player's marginal product. Such a measurement is useful in answering the question offered in the title, or a broader list of questions posed by both industry insiders and other interested observers. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The measurement of pay discrimination between job assignments

The traditional Becker/Arrow model of taste discrimination in pay depicts majority and minority labour as perfectly substitutable, implying that all workers perform precisely the same job assignment and have the same qualifications. The model is thus only appropriate for determining whether ceteris paribus pay differences between white workers and non-white workers, for example, performing job assignment A are attributable to prejudice (‘within-assignment discrimination’). The model is inappropriate for determining whether ceteris paribus pay differences between white workers in assignment A and non-white workers in assignment B reflect prejudice (‘cross-assignment discrimination’). We extend the traditional model to allow for cross-assignment discrimination and we propose an empirical methodology for its estimation. In so doing we address two broad questions: (1) Do predictions about cross-assignment discrimination vary with the form of the production function?; and (2) How can one estimate such discrimination when there is no common measure of productivity? We address the first question by deriving a measure of cross-assignment discrimination for four different production functions—Generalized Leontief, Quadratic, CES, and Cobb-Douglas. The Generalized Leontief provides the most general results, although closed form solutions are not possible. Closed form solutions are obtainable from the other three functions, but only under restrictive assumptions. There are two main findings. First, most predictions are generally robust across functional forms. Second, cross-assignment discrimination depends upon productivity and labour supply differences between the two worker groups, labour market structure, and the interaction between relative group productivity and prejudice. We address the second question by outlining, for future exploration, a two-stage regression methodology in which a standardised (i.e. common) measure of productivity is estimated separately for each occupation. This measure is then incorporated as a right-hand-side explanatory variable in a second-stage, all-occupation regression designed to estimate cross-assignment discrimination. We discuss the proposed methodology with reference to a valuable and interesting test case: The market for professional sports players.     

Productivity and Growth in UK Industries: An Intangible Investment Approach*

This article calculates some facts for the ‘knowledge economy’. Using new data, first we document UK intangible investment and find that (i) this is greater than tangible investment by £37bn in 2008; (ii) R&D is 11% of total intangible investment, software 15%, and training and organizational capital 22% each; (iii) the most intangible‐intensive industries are manufacturing and financial services. Next, we measure the contribution of intangible capital to growth for 2000–08. We find that intangible capital accounts for 23% of labour productivity growth and treating intangibles as investment lowers total factor productivity growth in the 2000s by 24% (R&D lowers it by 3%).     

Factor Utilization and Adjusted Productivity Estimates for the UK*

This paper derives series for capital utilization, labour effort and total factor productivity (TFP) for the UK from a general equilibrium model with variable utilization and labour adjustment costs. Capital utilization tracks survey‐based measures closely, but persistent movements in total hours worked mean our labour effort series is not as highly correlated with its comparators. Our estimated TFP series is less cyclical than the traditional Solow residual, although a weighted average of capital utilization and labour effort – aggregate factor utilization – and the Solow residual are not closely related.     

Managerial Efficiency in Higher Education Using Individual Versus Aggregate Level Data. Does the choice of Decision Making Units Count?

This paper explores the use of a data envelopment analysis approach to decompose student's under‐attainment in a part attributable to the Faculties they are enrolled in and a part attributable to the students themselves. The mean measure of each Faculty's teaching efficiency is calculated using both individual and aggregate data. The results show that efficiency measures at aggregate level reflect both the student's effort and the characteristics of the institution to which they belong, suggesting that they might lead to ambiguous results. The estimates also reveal that Faculties need to stimulate their student's effort in order to perform better. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY CHANGES AND WORKING TIME: THE CASE OF GREECE

In terms of the annual hours worked per employee, Greece ranks first among EU-15 countries and second among OECD countries. In this context, the austerity measures it adopted (as suggested by the EU and IMF) imply, among other things, a reduction in the over-hours. If such reductions were not to be accompanied by increases in labour productivity, output would be reduced considerably. This paper therefore addresses the question: “What change in sectoral labour productivity levels would have been required to deliver the actual change in final demands in Greece between 1995 and 2005, if working hours in each sector had been reduced to their EU averages?” In this framework, we develop a methodology for calculating labour productivity change by sector of economic activity in an input–output context. Next, we apply it to the Greek economy for the time period 1995–2005, the most recent period for which the required data are available. We find that the required productivity changes are the most substantial for the hotels and restaurants sector, followed by machinery manufacturing and the trade sectors.     

Workforce churning,human capital disruption,and organisational performance in different technological contexts

We assess the influence of workforce churning on the relationship between organisational human capital and labour productivity. Building on collective turnover research and human capital theory, we examine how the components of workforce churning (i.e., voluntary turnover, involuntary turnover, and new hires) influence the relationship between existing human capital and labour productivity. Further, we examine how this influence varies according to a firm's technological intensity. Our data come from 1,911 Italian manufacturing firms and reveals that collective voluntary turnover negatively affects the relationship between organisational human capital and labour productivity regardless of an organisation's level of technological intensity. In contrast, collective involuntary turnover enhances the relationship between human capital and labour productivity, and its effect is even stronger for organisations with more technologically intensive operations. Finally, our results suggest that the integration of new hires disrupts the relationship between human capital and productivity, particularly for firms with technologically intensive operations.     

Certified and uncertified skills and productivity growth performance: Cross-country evidence at industry level

We analyse the relationship between human capital and productivity growth using a five-country multi-industry dataset together with a measure of human capital which accounts for both certified skills (educational qualifications) and uncertified skills acquired through on-the-job training and experience. We find evidence of positive human capital effects on growth in average labour productivity, particularly when using our composite human capital measure. We also find some tentative evidence that multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth is positively related to the use of high-skilled labour. However, externalities of this kind are largely confined to industries which make intensive use of university graduates.     

Ageing and employability. Evidence from Belgian firm-level data

The Belgian population is ageing due to demographic changes, so does the workforce of firms active in the country. Such a trend is likely to remain for the foreseeable future. And it will be reinforced by the willingness of public authorities to expand employment among individuals aged 50 or more. But are older workers employable? The answer depends to a large extent on the gap between older workers’ productivity and their cost to employers. To address this question we use a production function that is modified to reflect the heterogeneity of labour with workers of different age potentially diverging in terms of marginal products. Using unique firm-level panel data we produce robust evidence on the causal effect of ageing on productivity (value added) and labour costs. We take advantage of the panel structure of data and resort to first-differences to deal with a potential time-invariant heterogeneity bias. Moreover, inspired by recent developments in the production function estimation literature, we also address the risk of simultaneity bias (endogeneity of firm’s age-mix choices in the short run) using (1) the structural approach suggested by Ackerberg et al. Structural identification of production functions. Department of Economics, UCLA, (2006), (2) alongside more traditional system-GMM methods (Blundell and Bond in J Econom 87:115–143, 1998) where lagged values of labour inputs are used as instruments. Our results indicate a negative impact of larger shares of older workers on productivity that is not compensated by lower labour costs, resulting in a lower productivity-labour costs gap. An increment of 10 %-points of their share causes a 1.3–2.8 % contraction of this gap. We conduct several robustness checks that largely confirm this result. This is not good news for older individuals’ employability and calls for interventions in the Belgian private economy aimed at combating the decline of productivity with age and/or better adapting labour costs to age-productivity profiles.     

Analysis of regional productivity with capital as a quasi-fixed factor

Most existing studies of regional productivity growth do not incorporate the effect of variations in capacity utilization on changes in output. By failing to do so, their factor productivity estimates are biased. To overcome this shortcoming, we adjust multifactor productivity growth measure for changes in capacity utilization. Our technique recognizes that capital is a quasi-fixed factor which implies that capital in the short run can be either under- or over-utilized by a firm. Our results from 1974 to 1978 show that capacity adjusted multifactor productivity growth measure exceeds capacity unadjusted multifactor productivity growth measure for the nine census divisions. The bias in the capacity unadjusted measure of multifactor productivity growth is approximately 8 percent in East North Central and over 33 percent in Mountain. We find that the aggregate factor productivity growth is slowest in the traditional manufacturing belt (Middle Atlantic and East North Central divisions). The level of aggregate factor productivity in the manufacturing belt, however, is almost 33 percent higher than in regions in the south.     

Embodying Embodiment in a Structural,Macroeconomic Input-Output Model

In this paper, I develop a regression-based system of labour productivity equations that account for capital-embodied technological change and I incorporate this system into IDLIFT, a structural, macroeconomic input-output model of the US economy. Builders of regression-based forecasting models have long had difficulty finding labour productivity equations that exhibit the "Solowian' property that movements in investment should cause accompanying movements in labour productivity. The production theory developed by Solow and others dictates that this causation is driven by the effect of traditional capital deepening as well as technological change embodied in capital. Lack of measurement of the latter has hampered the ability of researchers to estimate properly the productivity-investment relationship. Recent research by Wilson (2001) has alleviated this difficulty by estimating industry-level embodied technological change. In this paper, I utilize those estimates to construct capital stocks adjusted for technological change and then use these adjusted stocks to estimate Solow-type labour productivity equations. It is shown that replacing IDLIFT's former productivity equations, based on changes in output and time trends, with the new equations, results in a convergence between the dynamic behaviour of the model and that predicted by traditional (Solowian) production theory.     

How to beat the average

Empirical evidence has shown that people systematically overrate own performance relatively to others. This paper investigates production with identical workers where each one believes to be more productive than other workers. In a simple efficiency wage model, we ask how these seemingly incompatible beliefs can be made compatible with one another. We suggest that to compensate for the subjectively perceived productivity gap, each worker chooses an effort level lower than that attributed to others. The latter is estimated as the lowest effort that allows to pass the firm's monitoring test. Since rational agents will not maintain expectations which turn out to be systematically wrong, we introduce a "consistency requirement for false beliefs". Accordingly, predictions based on the "wrong" model must agree with the observations of the "true" model. We show that even with consistency, less effort is supplied than in the full information setting. Hence, the wage-effort relationship gets less efficient from the firm's viewpoint. At a first sight, at the firm-level workers gain from holding false beliefs, while profits unambigously fall. At the aggregate market outcome, however, the firms' labor demand declines, total output falls, and the rate of unemployment rises, decreasing workers utility again.     

Exploring reallocation’s apparent weak contribution to growth

Two recent meta-analyses use variants of the Baily et al. (Brookings Papers Econ Act Microecon 1:187–267, 1992) (BHC) decompositions to ask whether recent robust growth in aggregate labor productivity (ALP) across 25 countries is due to lower barriers to input reallocation. They find weak gains from measured reallocation and strong within-plant productivity gains. We show these findings may be because BHC indices decompose ALP growth using plant-level output-per-labor (OL) as a proxy for the marginal product of labor and changes in OL as a proxy for changes in plant-level productivity. We provide simple examples to show that (1) reallocation growth from labor should track marginal changes in labor weighted by the marginal product of labor, (2) BHC reallocation growth can be positively correlated, negatively correlated, or uncorrelated with actual growth arising from the reallocation of inputs, and that (3) BHC indices can mistake growth from reallocation as growth from productivity, principally because OL is neither a perfect index of marginal products nor plant-level productivity. We then turn to micro-level data from Chile, Colombia, and Slovenia, and we find for the first two that BHC indices report weak or negative growth from labor reallocation. Using the reallocation definition based on marginal products we find a positive and robust role for labor reallocation in all three countries and a reduced role of plant-level technical efficiency in growth. We close by exploring potential corrections to the BHC decompositions but here we have limited success.     

Skill shortages and firms' employment behaviour

This study investigates the effects of skill shortages on the dynamics of employment at the firm level for UK manufacturing between 1984–94. We find that shortages of skilled labour have a statistically significant effect on firms' employment behaviour. It has a positive effect on firms' adjustment costs leading to employment being more sluggish to respond when the labour market is tight, implying that employment adjustment will be more responsive in the downward direction. This result is robust to the inclusion of a measure of firms' sales expectations, with the effect of skill shortages being greater in periods when firms expect sales to rise.     

Sources of labour productivity: a panel investigation of the role of military expenditure

The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of military expenditure on productivity performance in 70 countries, over the period 1989–2011. We employ the labour productivity as a measure of productivity, while the military burden is initially utilized as an indicator of the level of military expenditure within the framework of a transcendental production function. Applying the system GMM method, it is observed that defence expenditure exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on labour productivity. The negative impact of military expenditure still holds, when an alternative measure of military spending is introduced into the model. The main policy implication of these results is that the overall productivity would be expected to improve, if military expenditures are replaced by civilian expenditures.     

Australia’s mining productivity decline: implications for MFP measurement

This paper investigates the mining sector’s poor productivity performance as measured by the growth accounting formula for multifactor productivity (MFP) index during the recent mining boom in Australia. We provide an alternative measure of productivity growth by estimating a translog variable cost function, with parameters that separate productivity growth due to technical change from that due to the effects of returns to scale, capacity utilisation and natural resource inputs. The results show that the average MFP growth in Australian mining based on the dual cost-function measure of technical change is 2 % over the sample period 1974–1975 to 2007–2008, rather than ?0.2 % from the published index. The difference arises because declining natural resource inputs, the effects of capacity utilisation and returns to scale have all reduced the ‘true’ MFP growth.