Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting

Expert opinion is an opinion given by an expert, and it can have significant value in forecasting key policy variables in economics and finance. Expert forecasts can either be expert opinions, or forecasts based on an econometric model. An expert forecast that is based on an econometric model is replicable, and can be defined as a replicable expert forecast (REF), whereas an expert opinion that is not based on an econometric model can be defined as a non-replicable expert forecast (Non-REF). Both REF and Non-REF may be made available by an expert regarding a policy variable of interest. In this paper, we develop a model to generate REF, and compare REF with Non-REF. A method is presented to compare REF and Non-REF using efficient estimation methods, and a direct test of expertise on expert opinion is given. The latter serves the purpose of investigating whether expert adjustment improves the model-based forecasts. Illustrations for forecasting pharmaceutical stock keeping unit (SKUs), where the econometric model is of (variations of) the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) type, show the relevance of the new methodology proposed in the paper. In particular, experts possess significant expertise, and expert forecasts are significant in explaining actual sales.     

基于订单排序组合的企业物流成本优化研究

以装箱问题模型为基础，建立基于订单排序组合的企业物流成本优化模型，运用启发式算法对模型进行解析，实现企业物流成本优化，并通过案例证明模型的可行性。     

Efficiency Gains in Rank‐ordered Multinomial Logit Models

This paper considers estimation of discrete choice models when agents report their ranking of the alternatives (or some of them) rather than just the utility maximizing alternative. We investigate the parametric conditional rank‐ordered Logit model. We show that conditions for identification do not change even if we observe ranking. Moreover, we fill a gap in the literature and show analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations that efficiency increases as we use additional information on the ranking.     

The Most Influential DEA Publications: A Comment on Seiford

In a recent paper in Journal of Productivity Analysis, Seiford (1996) assessed some DEA publications as being the most influential by interviewing a sample of researchers in an attempt to establish a consensus. In this note I compare Seiford's ranking with an alternative bibliometric ranking based on the Social Science Citation Index. The alternative quantitative ranking is very different from Seiford's qualitative ranking.     

基于组合熵权的军事工程物资保障中心优化选址模型研究

针对军事工程保障中心选址问题,首先通过分析影响军事工程物资保障中心选址的12个指标,在此基础上,运用熵权理论圈定各评判指标的客观权重,最后利用贴近度算法对各选址方案进行排序,实现保障中心的优化选址。     

Ranking reversals in asymmetric auctions

This paper compares the first-price auction and the second-price auction with several asymmetric bidders who are either weak or strong. The ranking of these auctions in terms of profit may flip as the exogenous reserve price or the number of weak or strong bidders change. Similarly, with endogenous reserve prices the ranking may depend on the seller’s own-use valuation. In other words, the ranking may be fragile to changes along these dimensions. Existing models rule out such ranking reversals by imposing substantial structure on type distributions. The current paper relies on simple mechanism design arguments that require less structure.     

A hybrid multi-attribute decision-making procedure for ranking project proposals: A historical data perspective

This paper develops a hybrid multiattribute decision-making methodology for ranking project proposals (PPs) through a judicious usage of historical data of completed projects to determine attribute weights, enabling elimination of problems associated with projected data such as cost and schedule overruns of real-world projects. The weights generated from data envelopment analysis are explicitly utilized for ranking PPs while allowing subjectivity to be ingeniously incorporated into the decision process. The new approach is implemented for ranking 25 PPs, and the rankings it yields are found indifferent to the decision maker's attitude, which ascertains the robustness of the ranking methodology.     

Capital rationing: The general case and a better criterion for ranking

The definition of net present value implies that the reinvestment rate of return on the intermediate cash flows is equal to the risk-adjusted discount rate of the project. However, in many situations, the two rates are different. Therefore, in capital rationing, the ranking of projects based on net present value is incorrect in those situations. Another problem is that financial managers would prefer to use internal rate of return for ranking, although ranking by net present value is theoretically superior. This paper solves both problems by developing a new ranking criterion.     

Rankings von Zeitschriften und Personen in der BWL

Rankings are of increasing importance in academia, but they are also criticised. In this article only research rankings are analysed, sorting either academic journals or academic authors publishing therein. Business administration and management is used as an example, whereas the analysis could be used for most social and other sciences. In business administration VHB-JOURQUAL 2 is a current example of a journal ranking, whereas the Handelsblatt ranking of management researchers is a recent ranking of persons. As an alternative to the latter one a citation-based ranking of researchers is developed and presented that possesses some advantages, especially in regard of evaluating individual academic performance, but exhibits some specific problems, too.     

Testing for overconfidence statistically: A moment inequality approach

We propose a moment inequality approach to test for the presence of overconfidence using data from ranking experiments where subjects rank themselves relative to other experimental participants. Although a ranking experiment is a typical way to collect data for the analysis of overconfidence, recent studies show that the resulting data may apparently indicate overconfidence even if participants are purely rational Bayesian updaters, in which case a set of inequalities hold. We apply state-of-the-art tests of moment inequalities to test such a set of inequalities. We examine the data from a traditional ranking experiment as well as those from more sophisticated designs.     

Rankings,Performance, and Sabotage: The Moderating Effects of Target Setting

Competitive performance rankings are widely used in organizations. Such incentive systems enable agents to improve their performance ranking not only by increasing their own performance, but also by undermining their competitors’ performance. While previous accounting studies have stressed the positive effect of ranking systems on managerial effort, the present paper investigates when such ranking systems may induce sabotage, and how this unintended effect can be mitigated. Our study is based on a laboratory experiment designed to investigate (a) whether competitive performance feedback increases an agent’s inclination to disrupt the efforts of competitors, in a case where ranking has no effect on compensation and (b) whether the presence of a self-set absolute performance target moderates these effects. Our results show that ranking increases both performance and sabotage. Adding an absolute performance standard appeared to reduce sabotage. However, when there is an absolute target, performance is higher in the absence of ranking. Overall, our results thus suggest that performance benefits from the use of either a relative or an absolute performance target, but not from their simultaneous use.     

多重视角下公司治理水平对企业绩效的影响分析——来自房地产上市公司的证据

以2000—2012年房地产上市公司为样本,从微观视角分析股权结构、董事会治理、高管激励对企业绩效的影响,发现房地产上市公司治理对企业绩效的影响整体上显著;采用因子分析法构造公司治理综合排名指标G1和企业绩效综合排名指标JX,从宏观视角审视公司治理与企业绩效之间的关系,发现房地产上市公司治理综合排名提高会导致企业绩效显著上升。     

An alternative quality of life ranking on the basis of remittances

Remittances provide an essential connection between people working abroad and their home countries. This paper considers these transfers as a measure of preferences revealed by the workers, underlying a ranking of countries around the world. In particular, we use the World Bank bilateral remittances data of international salaries and interpersonal transfers between 2010 and 2015 to compare European countries. The suggested least squares method has favourable axiomatic properties. Our ranking reveals a crucial aspect of quality of life and may become an alternative to various composite indices.     

Ranking and weak consistency in the A.H.P. context

The actual ranking of a set of alternatives is obtainable in a simple way assuming that the matrixA of pairwise comparisons isr-transilive. We show that, in some cases of inconsistency, the weights assigned to the alternatives by means of some well-known methods, suggested by the A.H.P., do not agree with the ranking. Further we introduce a condition, theweak consistency ofA, that ensures the mentioned methods provide weights according with the ranking.     

Body support testing and rating

The REF, C, and score are a means to give quantitative values for product performance. Other product variables defined as humidity control factor, shear control factor, differential temperature control factor, product life factor, and cost factor were not addressed as part of this study. Additional variables include delivery, maintenance, and warranties. These components can be added to the score in some weighted manner as they become clinically founded. Interface pressures and shears were not measured for beds that are gatched. Each product tested will have characteristics pertinent to its own design that must be addressed to minimize sacral and coccyx skin breakdown when subjects are in this posture because some pneumatic pads bottom out to give excessive sacral and coccyx pressure while others wrinkle when used in this position. This is of major concern when one considers that the coccyx is more susceptible to pressure than any other bony prominence. There may be some aversion to labeling support product performance because it will allow the purchaser to know what is being bought. This initial study indicates the feasibility of quantitating what all patients require: a valid interface support surface for each specific need. The user can be adequately informed before the purchase as to a product's merits without being influenced by the results of inadequate testing, referrals, or sales media influences. Although cushions, shoes, or other prosthetic/orthotic devices were not part of this study, it is appropriate to rate all these devices in a similar manner by simply comparing pressure relief attained to that desired, expressing the result as a percentage of the worst case, and then labeling the product accordingly. Those subjects with sensation can rate comfort as part of the overall score. For cushions, ischial tuberosity pressure relief can be expressed as a percentage of the maximum attainable relief. Metatarsal head relief during gait as well as during static testing can be measured, and claims can be made for shoes and sneakers. Where impact loads and shear forces are paramount, the score must comprise appropriate parameters. Similarly, amputee distal stump relief as a percentage of worst case could be specified by the fitter. Iliac crest relief as a percentage of worst case can also be specified by the fitter. In all instances the score is not a subjective rating but one that can be measured correctly. All body support products can be given an REF, C value, and score as well as other qualifying values where appropriate instrumentation and sufficient subject sampling is used.     

Ranking of job applicants,on-the-job search,and persistent unemployment

We formulate an efficiency wage model with on-the-job search where wages depend on turnover and employers may use information on whether the searching worker is employed or unemployed as a hiring criterion. We show theoretically that such ranking of job applicants by employment status raises both the level and the persistence of unemployment and numerically that the effects may be substantial. More prevalent ranking in Europe compared to the US (because of more rigid wage structures, etc.) could potentially help to explain the high and persistent unemployment in Europe.     

基于Shannon-RVM模型的科研项目评审排序方法

对科研项目进行合理排序,是科研项目评审和筛选的前提,是科研管理的重要内容。现有的研究均是基于专家打分进行的,因为专家打分的主观性,排序结果往往失于准确。本文基于信息熵理论和专家有序投票模型,提出一种多专家多科研项目的排序方法。该方法的数据基础(即专家排序)更为合理,因而能得出更为客观的排序结果。实例研究证实了本方法的合理性。     

基于集对分析的项目风险排序方法

风险排序是项目风险管理的重要环节。在综述已有方法的基础上，提出一种基于集对分析的风险排序方法，计算了各种风险的联系度，建立两步循环算法，对项目风险按大小进行排序。最后，用一个实例说明了本方法的实用性。     

Ranking professional forecasters by the predictive power of their narratives

This article presents the first ever ranking of professional forecasters based on the predictive power of the narrative of their regular research reports. The ranking is generated by applying the fully automated four-step procedure – called NLP-ForRank – developed in this article. The four steps are data scraping from the internet; data preparation; application of the natural language processing (NLP) models; and evaluation of the predictive power of the NLP indexes with linear regression, Granger causality, vector autoregression (VAR), and random forest forecasting models. Applying this procedure to five large Polish banks and to many time series shows that including the constructed NLP indexes in the forecasting models lowers the forecast errors, and that the optimal model almost always contains the NLP index. The financial news agencies could consider publishing this type of ranking on a regular basis as it would foster accountability, transparency, and a more competitive environment in the professional forecasting industry.     

基于模糊层次分析法的农产品供应链脆性源评价

在介绍农产品供应链及其脆弱性内涵的基础上,构建了以内部因素、外部因素为准则层,以农产品供应链本身复杂性、农产品供应链自身的特性、农产品供应链的控制过程及流通过程、消费者需求及产品生命周期及形式多样化、自然环境、经济及社会环境为因素层的脆性源层次结构模型。通过搜集专家打分表,综合模糊层次分析法进行较为严谨的运算,利用单层次排序和总排序得出最低层脆性源对农产品供应链脆弱性总目标的影响权重排序。最后针对农产品供应链脆弱性关键因素提出对策建议。