Are children poor men's riches?

Abstract

Extract

Fertility declined fairly simultaneously in most western countries nearly a century ago. The question of which social groups were early in starting the decline is thought to have been answered: the common assertion is that the highest social groups started to control their fertility and, as time passed, that their new reproductive behaviour percolated down through the social layers. The current project on the secular decline in fertility in Norway has revealed that the families at the very top of the social hierarchy were the national pioneers in family limitation. The hypothesis in this article is, however, that family limitation in Norway also had an independent point of departure in the rural lower classes. In this article, I will therefore challenge the ‘general truth’ that there is always an inverse relationship between fertility and social status in the initial phase of the secular decline in fertility.     

On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the sample of a group of control countries (specifically Belarus, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine) that did not sign an FTA. Besides, we show that trade growth after the FTA agreement with the EU was signed exceeded trade growth of the control group of countries, which did not become members.

Social history as economic history in Sweden. Some remarks

Abstract

During the last two decades social history as a subject has developed rapidly, with regard both to the number of its practicioners as well as the general interest it attracts within the international academic community. In a book of some years ago D.C. Coleman even emphasized that its success has been so great that it has had a tendency to outcompete discourses of older and more distinguished standing; that is, political history as well as economic history. In several countries — particularly Britain — social history has acquired its own departments, and has thus created problems for the older and less buoyant disciplines which have had to compete with this vital and growing new subject for funding and students.¹     

Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia

Abstract

The huge increase in international reserve holdings by Asian countries since the 1997 crisis has been one of the most important recent developments on the international financial scene. These buildups have contributed substantially to concerns about the creation of excessive global liquidity. How justified these concerns are depends heavily on the extent to which the reserve accumulating countries have been able to sterilize the effects on their domestic monetary aggregates. We use a unified theoretical framework to undertake dynamic estimations of the magnitude of sterilization and offset coefficients (which measure the degree of capital mobility) for a large set of Asian economies. We find that despite substantial capital mobility there has been a high degree of effective sterilization to date.     

皖江城市带主要城市商务成本比较分析

商务成本既是皖江城市带成功承接长三角产业转移,进行产业合理布局的重要依据,也是衡量和对外宣传皖江城市带投资环境的一个关键指标。在文献回顾和专家访谈的基础上,构建皖江城市带主要城市商务成本评价指标体系,基于数据分析,结果显示马鞍山、铜陵、合肥三市商务成本综合得分位列前三;合肥、芜湖、马鞍山三市的要素成本、营业成本相对较高;巢湖、池州、滁州三市制度成本得分较高;而巢湖、六安和安庆其他成本则较高;表明皖江城市带主要城市商务成本整体结构仍需优化。     

Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries

Although the euro area is not one of the major players in current global imbalances, the rebalancing of the current global imbalances is coupled with a significant appreciation of the euro against. In this paper, I present estimations of trade equations for individual euro area countries using a vector error correction model. Each euro area member has got a different trade elasticity, in the short as well as in the short run. Results show that exchange rate innovations affect individual euro area countries at different rates, complicating the response of the euro area’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy.

Measuring wealth inequality in South Africa: An agenda

ABSTRACT

Understanding wealth inequality has unique significance in South Africa. The co-existence of extreme poverty and extreme wealth is starkly visible. Apartheid-era inequality has persisted despite more than 20 years of democracy. Much of the recent research focus on inequality has been on inequality of income and of opportunities, especially quantitatively. With the recent project to release South African tax administrative data for research, this paper hopes to show how use of the tax administrative data can contribute to developing a refreshed quantitative analysis of wealth inequality, especially in estimating the top shares of the wealth distribution, and so contribute to the existing literature on wealth inequality in South Africa. The first section will explore why studying wealth inequality is of fundamental importance. The second section will review international data and methods used to research wealth inequality, before laying out suggested approach to doing such studies in South Africa.     

Drivers and barriers of corporate social responsibility in the tourism industry: The case of Malawi

ABSTRACT

In developing countries, corporate social responsibility (CSR) programmes help in uplifting local communities by complementing governments’ efforts in providing public services in areas such as education, health, environment and security. But in the tourism industry, CSR has also been closely linked to responsible tourism in which tourism operators’ focus on protecting resources that attract tourists for business sustainability. This paper examines the drivers and barriers of CSR adoption in the tourism industry in Malawi. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews and thematically analysed. The study reveals that the major drivers of CSR in the tourism industry in Malawi are community expectations, management values and commitment, cost reduction, natural and cultural resource management, competitive advantage and company size. The barriers to CSR adoption include lack of resources, lack of clear CSR policy and government support, lack of coordination, mismanagement of CSR resources by communities and lack of awareness.     

Engaging with homelessness in the City of Tshwane: Ethical and practical considerations

ABSTRACT

Policies and practices aimed at developing more engaged universities that are responsive to the needs of society have become key features of the higher education landscape of most countries. Visions of universities ‘engaged’ in matters of local importance increasingly require academics to reframe their scholarship as some form of ‘engagement’. This requirement has been addressed in many different disciplines and has been met with ambivalence. Academics who see engagement as a new form of ‘public good’ find it enhancing of their teaching and research activities, while others view engaged work as unnecessary and problematic ‘third mission’ activities that impede on ‘normal’ academic work. This article aims to contribute to these debates by interrogating the paradoxes of action and inaction. Drawing on recent experiences in reviewing a policy on homelessness for a municipality in South Africa, the article seeks to bring the ambiguities and challenges of engagement into greater visibility.     

Population Problems of the Countries of Asia

Abstract

This study seeks to explain the variation in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America and Asia. The analysis focuses on 19 Latin American and Asian countries for the period of 1979–1999. The results show that the variation in the U.S. FDI can largely be attributed to the differences in fundamental economic and social factors such as market size, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, macro-economic stability, the degree of trade openness, and both school enrollment and infrastructure availability. Separating the data into two time periods reveals interesting results about the location decisions for U.S. investors. In addition, the results from the comparison between the two regions show that Latin American countries clearly attract U.S. FDI for different reasons than Asian countries.     

An International Comparison of Banking Sectors: A DEA Approach

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to measure and compare the efficiency of the banking system in several countries and stages of development using the non-parametric?mathematic methodology Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Thus, we expect to broaden the range of studies about banking efficiency. Differently from most studies that use accounting data for measuring efficiency we employed market data, measuring returns and risk (calculated in different ways) in order to build a new measure of efficiency. This approach allows the comparison of different countries, which have different accounting rules and are not comparable using standard models. The main results suggest a downward trend in the average efficiency level of developed countries and a slight upward trend in the efficiency level of emerging market countries during the period. According to this study, efficiency tends to level off emerging and developed countries. It may be partially explained by the increasing globalization and integration processes that markets have been going through in the last years.     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.     

Deprivation among children living and working on the streets of Harare

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the extent of deprivation and vulnerability among children who live and work on the streets of Harare. A questionnaire survey was administered to 100 children in Harare's central business district; this was supplemented by in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The study found that these children suffered severe deprivation, in particular in terms of shelter and education. The majority of the children obtained their income from begging and selling small items. They were exposed to verbal, physical, sexual and emotional abuse by the public, as well as by other children and adults on the streets. Poverty was the main reason for the children being on the streets, while social factors such as family disintegration or the death of their parents also played a role. These push factors can be addressed through providing more social protection, cash transfers to families, and education and health assistance.     

Retirement in the UK

In common with other OECD countries, the UK experienced morethan two decades of declining labour-market activity among oldermen from the 1970s to the early 1990s, a trend that has onlyrecently shown signs of being reversed. Retirement decisionsare heavily shaped by institutional context and in the UK thishas led to there being two distinct groups with very different‘retirement’ experiences. At the top of the wealthdistribution, early retirement has typically been influencedby private, occupational pensions; at the bottom of the wealthdistribution individuals are even more likely to be not workingin their 50s, but do not typically define themselves as retired,and draw on income support, or more usually, disability benefits.Policy-makers keen to increase effective retirement ages willneed to consider the very different circumstances of these twogroups. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: j.banks{at}ifs.org.uk; sarah.smith{at}bristol.ac.uk     

The frontier in flames: Contacts between the inhabitants of Kainuu and Pielis-Karelia with Russian Karelia from the Age of the Count to the Homespun War (1650–1712)

Abstract

Determined efforts to ensure the preservation of the business records of private enterprises and commercial and industrial organisations are a feature of this century. The task has been tackled in various ways: in some countries special national or regional business archives have been set up to which enterprises can transfer their records for safe keeping; in others, records are deposited with the normal state record offices, which may be either national or provincial archives; in others again, there are central institutions which draw up lists of the records available at the various individual enterprises themselves. At the same time efforts are generally made to persuade concerns to ensure that their records are preserved.     

Exchange Rate Variability and the Macro-economy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth, and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. The evidence reveals patterns of interaction between the macro-economy and exchange rate variability. Across developing countries, appreciation decreases the cost of imports and price inflation, while depreciation shrinks the output supply, indicating high dependency on imported goods. The reduction in output supply correlates with higher inflation and an increase in the import value. In contrast, the evidence of the negative effect of currency appreciation on output growth is more prevalent across advanced countries, while depreciation stimulates competitiveness, resulting in higher demand for exports, investment and consumption. Across developing countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth and increases trend price inflation. Across advanced countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth while increasing the variability of price inflation and import growth. Minimizing variability of the exchange rate would be beneficial to sustain higher growth and reduce cyclical variability in developing and advanced countries.     

The backfiring effects of monetary and gift incentives on Covid-19 vaccination intentions

We provide evidence that material inducements for Covid-19 vaccination may backfire. Results from a hypothetical survey experiment in China (N = 1365) show incentives of 8–125 USD reduce vaccine uptake intentions compared to simply offering vaccination for free. Ours is the first Covid-19 vaccine study to separately consider and directly compare the effects of monetary and goods-based incentives, both of which have been widely employed by countries seeking to increase uptake; we demonstrate that both types backfire equally. Results are compared against the burgeoning literature on Covid-19 vaccine incentives.     

Espen Moe,Governance, Growth and Global Leadership: The Role of the State in Technological Progress, 1750–2000

Abstract

The concept of the ‘dissolution of estate society’ (standssamfunnets opplesning) has not been much used in Norwegian historical research. The great process of social change which took place in the 19th century, the main features of which have their counterparts in the social development of the other Scandinavian countries, has been discussed within other conceptual contexts. Norwegian historians have often stressed the contrast between an urban society and an agricultural society based on self-sufficiency, or between the people and their administrators. In economic history the changes which came with industrialization, and the shift from an agricultural economy based on self-sufficiency to an agricultural economy based on buying and selling, have been the subject of much research. In social and political history the subjects which have aroused the greatest interest have been the struggles of the farmers as well against the bureaucracy as against the commercial capitalism of the towns, and the role of the farmers in the movement towards political democracy.     

Re-examining the Fisher Effect: An Application of Small Sample Distributions of the Covariate Unit Root Test

Abstract

This article employs the covariate unit root test proposed by Elliott and Jansson to investigate the stationarity properties of real interest rates. Instead of blindly trusting the asymptotic distribution of the test, we extend Rudebusch's method to estimate its finite sample distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses. With these distributions, we can obtain the probabilities that the test statistic comes from the null and alternative hypotheses, and quantify the asymptotic size as well as the test power for each specific series. Our simulation experiments show that first, due to the higher power raised by the inclusion of covariates, the test can overwhelmingly reject the unit root null for the 16 industrialized countries; secondly, the Ng and Perron tests deliver lower powers in most countries, and thus lead to the false conclusion of non-stationary real interest rates. Finally, allowing for multiple endogenous breaks in the real interest rates provides only stationary evidence in half of the 16 countries.