Advertising effect on primary demand: a cointegration approach

This paper addresses the question of the effects of advertising on the primary demand for whisky in Italy. In contrast to previous works, this issue is investigated in a multivariate framework by referring to Johansen's cointegration technique; this choice allows the non-stationary dynamics of aggregate marketing data to be taken into account, as well as their short-term and long-term relationships. Even if advertising is linked to real prices and sales in the long run, our analysis reveals no evidence supporting the effectiveness of advertising on the aggregate demand for whisky, which is essentially determined by the real price, both in the short and the long term.     

The impact of online display advertising and paid search advertising relative to offline advertising on firm performance and firm value

This research examines the impact of online display advertising and paid search advertising relative to offline advertising on firm performance and firm value. Using proprietary data on annualized advertising expenditures for 1651 firms spanning seven years, we document that both display advertising and paid search advertising exhibit positive effects on firm performance (measured by sales) and firm value (measured by Tobin's q). Paid search advertising has a more positive effect on sales than offline advertising, consistent with paid search being closest to the actual purchase decision and having enhanced targeting abilities. Display advertising exhibits a relatively more positive effect on Tobin's q than offline advertising, consistent with its long-term effects. The findings suggest heterogeneous economic benefits across different types of advertising, with direct implications for managers in analyzing advertising effectiveness and external stakeholders in assessing firm performance.     

Managing advertising investments in marketing channels

This paper investigates how should manufacturers optimally allocate resources to retailer-initiated (retailer) advertising through cooperative advertising programs and own (manufacturer) advertising in a bilateral monopoly. Retailer advertising stimulates immediate sales but may also harm long-term (post-advertising) demand, whereas manufacturer advertising aims at building brand equity and stimulates both immediate and long-term sales. A game-theoretic model in which a manufacturer and a retailer set pricing and advertising decisions over a two-period planning horizon is developed to account for the differences between manufacturer and retailer advertising. We characterize equilibrium solutions for four advertising scenarios for the manufacturer, ranging from no investment in any advertising activity to undertaking own advertising and supporting retailer advertising simultaneously. Comparing the two players’ equilibrium strategies and profits across these scenarios, we find that manufacturers should avoid offering exclusively cooperative advertising programs to retailers. When retailer advertising positively influences long-term sales, manufacturers should offer cooperative advertising supports to retailers in addition to undertaking their own advertising. When retailer advertising negatively affects long-term sales, manufacturers can still undertake own advertising and offer cooperative advertising under certain conditions. However, if these conditions are not met, focusing exclusively on own advertising is their best advertising strategy. Retailers also prefer scenarios in which manufacturers advertise, but may choose not to participate in manufacturers’ cooperative advertising programs. This leads to suboptimal outcomes if cooperative advertising programs are not enhanced by additional incentives (e.g., side payments or other services).     

Consistency and commonality in advertising content: Helping or Hurting?

Scholars and practitioners widely argue that strong, successful brands are built on consistent and unique positioning, which should be reflected in the brands’ advertising. Surprisingly, however, little empirical evidence supports this claim, especially with regard to advertising content. The authors investigate whether and to what extent brands’ advertising content consistency—the similarity in the firm’s own advertising content over time—and commonality—the similarity between the firm’s and competitors’ advertising content—affect brands’ sales. Insights emerge from the analysis of the impact on sales of the content of 247 television ads aired by 33 brands in six consumer packaged goods categories over a four-year period. Results indicate that more than advertising spending, both consistency and commonality in advertising content affect sales, especially with respect to long-term cumulative sales. However, brands differ considerably regarding the direction of the effects. While small brands tend to benefit from increased consistency and commonality in advertising content, large brands tend to suffer from increased consistency. Thus, whether consistency and commonality in advertising content will help or hurt depends on the size of the brand.     

Practical Economics and Computing at Brand Level

You cannot make good marketing plans without estimates of the likely effects of your actions. But many decisions are taken—for example, whether to spend more or less on advertising—with little analysis of the results of such changes in the past. Meanwhile the data, which might reveal useful relationships between actions and sales effects, receive only cursory inspection. And economic theorists spend little time helping manufacturers at the level of the brand. A few advertising agencies appreciate that their own work would be better valued, and their clients would receive better advice, if they looked harder for the sales effects of advertising and other marketing decisions. Leo Burnett is one of these forward-looking agencies, and this paper describes some of the work they have carried out.     

Sales Response to Advertising

Advertising research still has to make a major contribution, both theoretically and practically, providing a satisfactory answer to the question: how does advertising influence sales? This article tackles the problem by providing a thorough analysis of the causal relationship between advertising and sales, the strength of the effects and the occurrence of time lags. Time series data for advertising and sales are related to each other in a quantitative model to provide an answer to the question of how advertising contributes to sales. The method presented is applicable to other related studies and information can thus be accumulated about the usefulness of the model.     

Incorporating long-term effects in determining the effectiveness of different types of online advertising

Although online advertising has become a full member of the marketing mix and is still growing in importance, studies of long-term, or lagged, advertising effects have generally either neglected online advertising channels or have treated online advertising as one homogeneous block. We analyze the short- and long-term effectiveness of different types of online advertising channels by incorporating separate time lags for each advertising channel. We look at the sales effect of email, banner, and price comparison advertising (PCA) using a sample of 2.8 million purchases and more than 1.1 million individual costumers aggregated to 365 days. Our analysis shows that email advertising has the longest effect, followed by banner advertising and PCA. We find that the length of the effect does not always go hand in hand with its intensity since, for example, banner advertising lasts longer than PCA but performs worse in terms of actual sales. This research yields important insights for theory and practice since it shows how to model long-term advertising effects and provides meaningful insights for improving the allocation of advertising budgets.     

Going for gold: Investigating the (non)sense of increased advertising around major sports events

Major sports events draw unsurpassed media attention. Companies are motivated to increase their advertising investments around these events to reach large audiences in a short period. Is such an advertising surge actually beneficial though, or should companies avoid advertising in these periods because of negative effects of competitive interference? This study investigates when consumer packaged goods companies should invest in advertising to increase sales: before, during, or after the event or outside these event periods. The author estimates short- and long-term own- and cross-advertising elasticities for 206 brands using four years of weekly data. Although considerable heterogeneity exists across brands, own-advertising effectiveness diminishes especially before and during major sports events, in both the short and the long run. In addition, brands benefit less from category-demand effects through competitors' advertising. Conversely, greater increases in advertising spending resulting in significant growth in share of voice around focused, single-sport events are a successful strategy to overcome this overall general negative trend.     

Context effects of TV programme-induced interactivity and telepresence on advertising responses

This article provides an analysis of the relationship between annual advertising expenditures and sales, using a time series regression procedure, for beer, wine, and liquor sold in the United States from 1971 to 2012. Information from these four decades provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationships of numerous variables with aggregate alcohol category sales. Even though per capita alcohol consumption has not changed much throughout this period, alcohol advertising media expenditures for all alcohol beverages have increased almost 400% since 1971. This study has provided evidence of consumption changes across categories of alcohol beverages over the past 40-plus years with the preponderance of those changes significantly correlated to fluctuations in demography, taxation and income levels – not advertising. Despite other macro-level studies with consistent findings, the perception that advertising increases consumption exists. The findings here indicate that there is either no relationship or a weak one between advertising and aggregate category sales. Therefore, advertising restrictions or bans with the purpose of reducing consumption may not have the desired effect. Implications on policy decisions regarding advertising controls are addressed.     

Advertising budgets in competitive environments

Firms can approach advertising competition either by setting advertising budgets (as in the percentage of sales method) or target sales levels (as in the objective and task approach). We study firms’ incentives to adopt one or the other posture using a two-stage model of duopolistic competition. In the first stage, each firm chooses to commit either to an advertising budget, letting its sales follow from the market response function, or to a desired sales level, promising to adjust its advertising spending accordingly. In the second stage, firms choose the actual levels of their advertising budget or sales target. When prices are exogenous, we show that, due to strategic effects, if a firm benefits from its rival’s advertising (as when advertising increases awareness of the product category) then setting an advertising budget dominates setting a sales target. On the other hand, if a firm is harmed by its rival’s advertising (as when advertising increases the firm’s share of a fixed market), then committing to a sales level dominates. We extend these results in several directions and show that when firms engage in price competition as well as advertising the nature of advertising and product-market competition interact to determine whether setting an advertising budget or sales target dominates.

Do mobile banner ads increase sales? Yes,in the offline channel

Firms allocate increasingly large budgets to mobile banner advertising. Yet, existing research paid only scant attention to the sales effects of mobile banner ads. In this paper, we fill this gap by determining the offline and online sales impact of a large-scale mobile banner advertising campaign. As part of a geographical field experiment, over 3.5 million mobile banner ads were served to a predetermined geographical area. We determine the offline and online sales effects of the mobile banner ad campaign by analyzing twenty months of sales data for regions covering the entire country of the Netherlands. Relying on a difference-in-difference approach and two matching methods, we demonstrate an offline sales increase of around 2%. The online sales effect is not significant. We conclude that firms can use mobile banner advertising to boost offline sales. We find no evidence for cross-channel sales cannibalization.     

Cross channel effects of search engine advertising on brick & mortar retail sales: Meta analysis of large scale field experiments on Google.com

We investigate the cross channel effects of search engine advertising on Google.com on sales in brick and mortar retail stores. Obtaining causal and actionable estimates in this context is challenging: Brick and mortar store sales vary widely on a weekly basis; offline media dominate the marketing budget; search advertising and demand are contemporaneously correlated; and estimates have to be credible to overcome agency issues between the online and offline marketing groups. We report on a meta-analysis of a population of 15 independent field experiments, in which 13 well-known U.S. multi-channel retailers spent over $4 Million in incremental search advertising. In test markets category keywords were maintained in positions 1-3 for 76 product categories with no search advertising on these keywords in the control markets. Outcomes measured include sales in the advertised categories, total store sales and Return on Ad Spending. We estimate the average effect of each outcome for this population of experiments using a Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model. The estimates from the HB model provide causal evidence that increasing search engine advertising on broad keywords on Google.com had a positive effect on sales in brick and mortar stores for the advertised categories for this population of retailers. There also was a positive effect on total store sales. Hence the increase in sales in the advertised categories was incremental to the retailer net of any sales borrowed from non-advertised categories. The total store sales increase was a meaningful improvement compared to the baseline sales growth rates. The average Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) is positive, but does not breakeven on average although several retailers achieved or exceeded break-even based only on brick and mortar sales. We examine the robustness of our findings to alternative assumptions about the data specific to this set of experiments. Our estimates suggest online and offline are linked markets, that media planners should account for the offline effects in the planning and execution of search advertising campaigns, and that these effects should be adjusted by category and retailer. Extensive replication and a unique research protocol ensure that our results are general and credible.     

The Impact of Advertising on Consumer Demand for Beef:

Thi study used two related data sets to obtain new estimates of food shopper responses to prices and advertising. Supermarket scan data comprised the source of information of sales and prices. Chain level newspaper and broadcast media advertising in the area measured the marketing program. Unique features of the study include the use of item movement and the accomodation of possible cross media effects. Consequently, the paper presents a way of monitoring promotions and relating them to sales. Three fresh beef aggregates (ground, roasts, and steaks) are used to estimate the impacts of broadcast media and newspaper adevertising by a supermarket chain. New estimates of direct and cross advertising impacts are also reported.     

Advertising/Sales Ratios in the UK, 1969–1980

For more than 30 years The Advertising Association has produced statistics of advertising expenditure in the United Kingdom. The figures are produced by means of an annual survey in which data are collected from the media, advertising agencies and advertisers. The advertising/sales ratios shown below are the last section of the figures to be released each year, since it is necessary to wait for the CSO compiled ‘sales’ data before the calculations can be made.     

Synergistic,Antagonistic, and Asymmetric Media Interactions

Despite the highly touted potential for synergies in cross-media advertising, much has yet to be discovered about how the effects of multiple media combine to shape sales response. Two challenges related to the investigation of media interaction effects are their complex nature and their specification in a sales response model. The authors adopt a flexible modeling approach, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), which captures parsimoniously complex interaction effects and facilitates their measurement and interpretation. Analysis of multiple data sets on brand sales and media spending points to the following typology of media interaction effects: (1) synergistic (positive interactions), (2) antagonistic (negative interactions), and (3) asymmetric, where each medium does not contribute equally to the interaction. The findings show that 44% of media spend produces synergistic effects, whereas 21% produces antagonistic effects. Hence synergy is not the de facto outcome of cross-media advertising. Interestingly, low-budget media play a key role in producing interaction effects.     

The impact of advertising along the conversion funnel

We assemble a unique data set that combines information on supermarket feature advertising with path-tracking data on consumers’ movement within the store as well as purchase information. Using these novel data, we trace out how advertising affects consumer behavior along the path-to-purchase. We find advertising has no significant effect on the number of consumers visiting the category being advertised. The null effect is precisely estimated. At the upper bound of the confidence interval, a one-standard-deviation shift in advertising increases category traffic by only 1.3%. We do find a significant effect at the lower end of the conversion funnel. A one-standard-deviation change in advertising (evaluated at the point estimate) increases category-level sales by 10%. We further decompose the impact on sales and find the increase is driven by the same number of consumers buying a larger number of products of the same brand. We find no evidence of spillover effects of advertising between categories that are stocked in proximity of each other, nor between different products in the same category. Two mechanisms are consistent with these patterns: consumers retrieve memory of the ad only when interacting with the category or only consumers wanting to purchase the brand choose to consume the ad.     

Advertising Interrelations in an Oligopolistic Market

Measuring the effects of advertising on sales presents a host of problems in concentrated markets characterized by a number of rival sellers using advertising as a competitive weapon. It is important that the cross-effects of advertising between companies, in addition to own-effects, are identified.     

The Direct and Reposting Effects of Advertorials on Sales

Advertorials have been shown to influence advertising recall and brand evaluation. However, no research has examined their impact on sales. This study uses longitudinal data on durable consumer goods in China to assess the extent to which advertorials influence sales. The study finds that advertorials have dual, positive effects on firms’ sales: a direct effect through original copy and a reposting effect through online exposure.     

Allocating a Promotion Budget between Advertising and Sales Contest Prizes: An Integrated Marketing Communications Perspective

This paper develops and analyzes a normative model for allocating a fixed, short-term promotion budget between product advertising and prizes of a rank-order sales contest for a homogeneous sales force when sales are driven by both personal selling effort and advertising. The model provides insights into how the optimal budget allocations vary with the synergy between advertising and selling effort, sales force size, salesperson risk-tolerance, perceived cost of effort, selling effectiveness and sales response uncertainty. The analysis highlights the need for and value of close coordination between marketing and sales management in designing a promotion program involving both advertising and sales force incentives.     

It's not only what they buy,it's also what they keep: Linking marketing instruments to product returns

Online retailers implement various marketing instruments to boost their sales. These marketing instruments can not only impact sales, but also product returns. However, when assessing the performance of marketing instruments, retailers often ignore potential return effects. Theoretically, marketing instruments could increase or decrease returns, depending on how they affect expected and experienced costs and benefits related to a product. In this paper, we empirically examine whether, and how a comprehensive set of marketing instruments (newsletters, catalogs, coupons, free shipping, paid search, affiliate advertising and image advertising) affects product returns. We use data from two major online retailers and show that return effects vary largely across marketing instruments. Surprisingly, none of the instruments reduces product returns. Newsletters, paid search, catalogs and free shipping increase returns substantially by up to 18%. For free shipping and catalogs, the return effects emerge prevalently for fashion categories, whereas online advertising and newsletters increase returns of both fashion and non-fashion products. These findings enhance our understanding of how firm-initiated marketing instruments affect returns and provide guidance for online retailers in multimedia environments.