The empirical relationship between risk and return: evidence from the UK stock market

Previous studies reach no consensus on the relationship between risk and return using data from one market. We argue that the world market factor should not be ignored in assessing the risk-return relationship in a partially integrated market. Applying a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) model to the weekly stock index returns from the UK and the world market, we document a significant positive relationship between stock returns and the variance of returns in the UK stock market after controlling for the covariance of the UK and the world market return. In contrast, conventional univariate GARCH-M models typically fail to detect this relationship. Nonnested hypothesis tests supplemented with other commonly used model selection criteria unambiguously demonstrate that our bivariate GARCH-M model is more likely to be the true model for UK stock market returns than univariate GARCH-M models. Our results have implications for empirical assessments of the risk-return relationship, expected return estimation, and international diversification.     

An empirical analysis of zero-leverage firms: New evidence from the UK

This paper examines why some firms have no debt in their capital structures despite the potential benefits of debt financing. It adds new insights to this zero-leverage phenomenon by addressing two unexplored questions: Does a firm have zero leverage as a consequence of financial constraints or because of a strategic decision to mitigate underinvestment incentives and preserve financial flexibility? Is the decision to follow a zero-leverage policy affected by macroeconomic conditions? Analyzing a new sample of UK firms over the period 1980–2007, we show that the zero-leverage policy is prevalent but that zero-leverage firms are not homogeneous. There are two distinct groups of unlevered firms with different levels of constraints as measured by their dividend policy, namely payers and non-payers. Importantly, we find new evidence that these groups have different motives for eschewing debt. Firms in the second group (non-payers) have zero leverage mainly due to financial constraints. Firms in the first group (payers) deliberately eschew debt to mitigate investment distortions, as predicted by the underinvestment and financial flexibility hypotheses. Macroeconomic conditions have a significant effect on the zero-leverage decision, especially for this less constrained group.     

Valuation scepticism,liquidity benefits and closed‐end fund premiums/discounts: evidence from fair value disclosures

Closed‐end fund investors may view assets valued using level 2 and 3 inputs more sceptically because of the subjectivity of these inputs (valuation scepticism), or these assets could be viewed favourably because they allow small investors to access illiquid securities (liquidity benefit). We find that funds holding level 3 assets have higher value when funds trade at a premium, but lower value when funds trade at a discount. Both of these effects are magnified for funds with higher levels of unrealized appreciation. Our results suggest that liquidity benefit (valuation scepticism) is more important when funds trade at a premium (discount).     

Financial Forecasting,Risk and Valuation: Accounting for the Future

Valuation involves forecasting payoffs and discounting expected payoffs for risk. Forecasting is often seen as the province of the statistician, risk determination the province of asset pricing. This paper elaborates on the idea that financial forecasting, risk determination and valuation are a matter of accounting. Accounting not only provides information to forecast payoffs but also specifies the payoffs to be forecasted. Further, accounting determines the transition from the present to the future and thus implicitly the evolutionary parameters that a statistician might estimate for forecasting. Accounting also bears on risk determination in the way it handles uncertainty. Accordingly, accounting is involved in both the numerator and the denominator of a valuation model. Indeed, a valuation model is a model of accounting for the future, and the effectiveness of a valuation model rides on the accounting principles employed.     

Impact of a tick size reduction on liquidity: evidence from the Sydney Futures Exchange

This paper examines the impact of a reduction in the minimum price increment on liquidity and execution costs in a futures market setting. In 2006, the Sydney Futures Exchange halved the minimum tick in the 3 Year Commonwealth Treasury Bond Futures. Results indicate that bid‐ask spreads are significantly reduced after the change. Quoted depth, both at the best quotes and visible in the limit order book, is significantly lower after the tick reduction. Further analysis reveals that execution costs are significantly reduced after the change. We conclude that a tick size reduction improves liquidity and reduces execution costs in a futures market setting.     

外资持股、信息环境与现金持有价值

借鉴Faulkender and Wang(2006)和Dittar and Mahrt Smith(2007)提出的衡量现金持有价值的方法,采用固定效应回归模型,系统检验了2001-2006年我国A股、AB股和AH股上市企业的资金效率差异。实证检验发现,在资本市场分割和双重信息披露的作用下,有外资持股的AH股和AB股企业在统计和经济意义上表现出显著高于A股企业的资金效率。并且由于AH股企业面临着比AB股更为严厉的证券监管和法律保护实施,使得AH股的资金效率要较之AB股企业更高。外资持股企业的资金效率优势在样本区间的早期表现更加显著。研究表明,资本市场的投资者法律保护实施和信息披露环境完善对提高企业的资金效率发挥了重要的公司治理作用。     

The market premium for the option to close: evidence from Australian gold mining firms

This study shows the market value of gold mining firms contains a premium for the option to close. The sample uses 41 gold mining producers listed on the Australian Stock Exchange from 1987 to 2013. The premium of the market price over the present value of cash flows is isolated and a pooled cross‐sectional regression tests the degree of association between that premium and theoretical option premiums. The results show market prices incorporate a premium reflecting the option to temporarily close operations. The magnitude of the option premium to close depends on whether firms are out or in the money options.     

Accounting Practices and the Market Valuation of Accounting Numbers: Evidence from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand

This study examines the relation between stock prices and accounting earnings and book values in six Asian countries: Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. The analysis is based on a residual earnings model that expresses the value of the firm in terms of book value and residual income. The model holds for any clean surplus accounting system. However, for finite time horizons, biased accounting may affect model estimates. The six countries examined in this study differ in faithfulness to clean surplus accounting as well as bias (conservatism). The study addresses two questions. First, are there systematic differences across countries in the value relevance of accounting, and are these differences related to accounting differences? Second, are there systematic differences in the incremental and relative information content of book value per share (BVPS) and abnormal (residual) earnings per share (REPS) across the countries, and are such differences related to accounting differences? We find differences across the six countries in the explanatory power of BVPS and REPS for firm values. Explanatory power for Taiwan and Malaysia is relatively low while that for Korea and the Philippines is relatively high. These differences are generally consistent with differences in accounting practice; however, since Korean accounting practice is strongly influenced by tax law, we did not expect the high association for Korea. Second, with respect to the incremental and relative explanatory power of BVPS and REPS, we find BVPS to have high explanatory power in the Philippines and Korea but little in Taiwan. In all six countries REPS has less explanatory power than BVPS in most years. Again, the evidence may be interpreted as suggesting accounting practice affects valuation (with Korea again as the exception). Finally, we provide evidence on the sensitivity of the timing of comparisons of stock prices and accounting values. We find that comparing prices at year-end (even though annual accounting information has not been released at that time), in general, provides the highest correlation between market and accounting numbers.     

Liquidity in auction and specialist market structures: Evidence from the Italian bourse

Several studies find that bid-ask spreads for stocks listed on the NYSE are lower than for stocks listed on NASDAQ. While this suggests that specialist market structures provide greater liquidity than competing dealer markets, the nature of trading on the NYSE, which comprises a specialist competing with limit order flow, obfuscates the comparison. In 2001, a structural change was implemented on the Italian Bourse. Many stocks that traded in an auction market switched to a specialist market, where the specialist controls order flow. Results confirm that liquidity is significantly improved when stocks commence trading in the specialist market. Analysis of the components of the bid-ask spread reveal that the adverse selection component of the spread is significantly reduced. This evidence suggests that specialist market structures provide greater liquidity to market participants.     

The dynamics between stock returns and mutual fund flows: empirical evidence from the Greek market

This paper examines the interaction between mutual fund flows and stock returns in Greece. Specifically, we investigate the possibility of a causality mechanism through which mutual funds flows may affect stock returns and vice versa. The statistical evidence derived from the error correction model indicates that there is a bidirectional causality between mutual fund flows and stock returns. Cointegration results show that mutual funds flows cause stock returns to rise or fall. This may be explained by the fact that, in Greece, equity mutual funds are obliged by law to invest a certain percentage of their cash in stocks. Thus, inflows and outflows of cash in equity funds seem to cause higher and lower stock returns in Greek stock market.     

The Valuation of Deferred Taxation: Evidence from the UK Partial Provision Approach

The UK provides a virtually unique environment in which to examine the information content of the partial provision approach to deferred tax accounting. In addition this issue is of particular interest to UK accounting standard setters in the light of trends towards international accounting standard harmonisation. Taking the total amount of deferred taxation to be equal to the partial balance sheet provision plus the potential portion appearing in the notes, this study tests the relationship between these various deferred tax components and market value. It also examines the economic rationale for the potential portion. The study is based on 1,512 company/years from the period 1989–1991. It finds that, while the full amount of deferred taxation is not valued by the market as a liability, there is evidence of the partial balance sheet provision being so valued. There is also evidence that the potential portion is positively related to market value, consistent with its proxying for information about future growth. This result is supported by the positive relation between the potential portion and measures of future capital spending, indicative of an underlying economic rationale for this deferred taxation component. From a regulatory perspective, the study concludes that the main benefit of the partial provision approach is that the balance sheet amount constitutes a reasonably reliable measure of the portion likely to crystallise as a liability, information that would be lost were only the full amount to be disclosed.     

Inflation illusion and the dividend yield: evidence from the UK

We report evidence that the UK dividend yield and expected inflation are positively correlated from 1962 to 1997, but negatively correlated subsequently. Using a commonly used VAR (vector auto-regression)-based procedure we find strong evidence that the positive correlation is caused both by inflation illusion and the effect of inflation on required rates of return. We also find some evidence that it is caused by inflation rationally reducing expected real dividend growth. We find that Chen and Zhao's (2009. “Return Decomposition.” Review of Financial Studies 22 (12): 5213–5249) criticism of the VAR-based procedure has little empirical relevance but that the procedure can be highly sensitive to the choice of data period.     

Securitization and financial solvency: empirical evidence from Portugal

This paper analyses the effect of securitization issues on the solvency of Portuguese financial institutions. For this purpose, we use an unbalanced panel model estimated using GMM methods and find that securitization has a slightly positive impact on the soundness of the issuing entity. We study 35 financial entities and 60 traditional securitizations issued by 9 originators between 2001 and 2013. The analysis reveals that the financial entities’ soundness improved slightly, showing that securitization enhanced the quality of the originators’ portfolios and increased the regulatory capital requirements. We also found that efficiency and profitability improve the risk-adjusted ROAA and that efficiency increases regulatory capital requirements. The robustness analysis confirms the positive effect of securitization on solvency, where both credit quality and liquidity are shown to be significant variables.     

The value relevance of cash flows, current accruals, and non-current accruals in the UK

Cash flow statements have a longstanding history as mandated financial statement disclosures, having replaced funds flow statements. The usefulness of such disclosures with respect to one of the main purposes of financial statements—providing information relevant to the assessment of future cash flows and their uncertainty, and the market value of firms—is still subject to debate. This study investigates whether various partitions of earnings involving combinations of a cash flow measure of performance and measures of current accruals and non-current accruals improve the ability to explain market values in the UK relative to using earnings alone. Using a valuation model-based methodology, and employing a UK sample of non-financial firms for the years 1993 to 2007, our results suggest strong support for the assertion that cash flows can have incremental value relevance relative to either earnings or funds flows. By implication, cash flows can have separate value relevance from total and, in particular, current accruals. There is slightly less consistent evidence that current and non-current accruals can have separate value relevance but, nonetheless, the results are still strongly in favour in this respect. Generally, the main source of increase in explanatory power for market values is the separate inclusion of our cash flow measure in the estimated regressions. As a consequence, we conclude that the statement of cash flows in the UK provides information useful to UK investors in valuing firms. Further, requiring a cash flow statement, as opposed to a funds flow statement, improves the information content of financial statements in the UK.     

Cross-country evidence on the value of corporate industrial and international diversification

We provide evidence on the value of industrial and international diversification for more than 3000 firms from Germany, the U.K., and the U.S. Consistent with prior studies, we find that industrial diversification reduces firm value in the U.K. and the U.S. Furthermore, similar to the recent findings of Denis et al. [J. Finance 57 (2002)], we find that U.S. multinationals trade at a discount relative to firms operating only in the domestic market. This result is robust to different benchmarks used to measure the value of diversification. By contrast, we find that international diversification has no effect on the value of firms headquartered in either Germany or the U.K.     

Shareholder voting in mergers and acquisitions: evidence from the UK

This paper examines the determinants and consequences of shareholder voting on mergers and acquisitions using a sample of resolutions approved by shareholders of UK publicly listed firms from 1997 to 2015. We find that dissent on M&A resolutions is negatively related to bidder announcement returns and positively related to shareholders’ general dissatisfaction towards the management. Shareholder dissent is an important predictor of the announcement returns of subsequent M&A deals. We also report an increase in shareholder dissent after the 2007–2008 financial crisis.     

综合收益列报、估值判断和盈余管理识别的实验研究——基于评估师认知视角

估值判断会因综合收益列报模式的不同而有差异,因此利用实验设计检验了列报模式对评估师估值判断的影响,及其识别盈余管理的能力。调查和分析表明不同的综合收益列报模式对评估判断的影响不存在显著差异,符合中国评估行业现状;评估师能够识别盈余管理,但综合收益和它的组成部分的详细披露并没有显著增强公司盈余管理的透明度。     

Bond market access and acquisitions: empirical evidence from the European market

We investigate whether access to bond markets affects acquisition activity of the European firms between 1999 and 2014. Our study provides insight into the effect that the growing European bond market has on corporate investment activity. We find that access to the bond markets, measured by the existence of a credit rating, has a significant effect on the tendency of firms to make acquisitions. The effect is strongest in Continental Europe and during times of high acquisition activity. We further find that consistent with prior U.S. evidence, bond market access has an inverse effect on abnormal returns generated by the acquisitions. That finding suggests that firms with superior access to financing pursue targets of lesser quality.     

Determinants of Actuarial Valuation Method Changes for Pension Funding and Reporting: Evidence from the UK

This study examines various factors that potentially explain cross‐sectional variations in UK corporate managerial discretion to switch towards a market‐based actuarial pension valuation method for pension funding and reporting purposes. Evidence is based on accounting, actuarial and share market data for an industry‐matched pair sample of 90 UK firms. Consistent with our hypotheses we find that companies have a greater propensity to switch actuarial methods if they use lower discount rates, lower flow funding ratios and sponsor larger pension plans in the pre‐switch valuation year. These findings are consistent with the traditional perspective, which implies that UK corporate switching decisions are explained by characteristics of their defined benefit pension funds. The results run contrary to the findings of earlier US based studies that find that such choices can be explained from an alternative corporate financial perspective.     

Corporate risk management and firm value: evidence from the UK market

The paper evaluates the effect of corporate risk management activities on firm value, using a sample of large UK non-financial firms. Following recent changes in financial reporting standards, we are able to collect detailed information on risk management activities from audited financial reports. This enables us to gain a better understanding of risk management practices and to investigate value implications of different types of hedging. Overall 86.88% of the firms in the sample use derivatives to manage at least one type of price risk. The hedging premium is statistically and economically significant for foreign currency derivative users, while we provide weak evidence that interest rate hedging increases firm value. The extent of hedging and the hedging horizon have an impact on the hedging premium, whereas operational risk management activities do not significantly influence the market value of the firm.